Daily Archives: June 17, 2018

Gold Daily Chart: Bear Attack Update!

One thing I love about the waves in gold is that the have the ability to always move against the majority, when they least expect it to. Is this gold crash going to be called an unexpected correction, or was the entire move just another bear market rally? If we look back to the late 2016 low, followed by a rally. This bullish phase has so many overlapping waves that it is hard to find a single good impulse wave structure.  This type of pattern is what we would get when an asset class runs against its own larger trend. I’ve seen wave counts where the wave analsyts  turn all these waves into pure impulse waves, and therefore forecast a big bull market yet to come. Gold sure looks like it wants to head south not north so my bearish outlook remains.

This bullish pattern above can fit into a triangle which ended at the magic number of $1360. Any triangle in a “B” wave rally is very bearish as a “C” wave crash should follow.  The top resistance line also produced at least 3 H&S patterns.  Since my triangle is a Minor degree triangle then at the next big low, my degree level has to go up by at least one degree.

Most of the time it would be a two-degree change which will be the case for gold. Sure we have a long way to go, but gold can move $100-$200 with little effort. In silver this “B” wave is much lower and just as distorted.  For the entire 2017 bullish phase to be confirmed as a bear market rally, gold would still have to crash below $1120.

Last week the commercial traders added to thier short positions which is not a bullish indicator but a very bearish one.  If oil keeps on crashing like it has been doing, then I don’t see any reason why the Gold/Oil ratio will not drag gold down with it.  In any potential mini pani,  investors could end up selling everything in a desperate “dash for cash” once they realize that the gold bull market is crumbling all around them.

This could take until the September, October time period for all this to play out, so patience is the key this summer.

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Amazon: Price Still Heading To The Moon

It seems Amazon is impervious to any meaningful price correction. The record high so far has hit $1724 and has backed off a bit last week. Sure I would love to see a good correction as I think its high time for one to happen. We also know that any extreme can keep on pushing higher until another new extreme is reached. This extreme may be a Cycle degree top , but I will stay away from any huge moves until it happens. AMZN could just keep on bumping and grinding along, until some fundamental catalyst sets if off.   President Trump ‘s trade war may have unsuspecting consequences on Amazon.

Only the rich can play this Amazon game as average Joe can’t afford enough stocks to make a difference. If he does, then wouldn’t it be smart to sell high priced stocks to those rich people that can afford them. Buying from the poor and then selling to the rich is what buying low and selling high is all about. 😛

My top trend line might have more meaning than the bottom trend line has, but if a Cycle degree correction is coming then the bottom trend line may not hold.

There are a few stocks like Amazon, Apple, Tesla that seem to defy gravity and they need to get hit hard once the Nasdaq bubble starts to burst.

Back in April 2018, I show the  Gold/Amzn ratio hit 1.09:1, today this ratio is now 1.34:1. It now takes 1.34 gold ounces to buy just one Amazon stock which should also establish another new Gold/Amazon ratio extreme.

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