Daily Archives: June 15, 2018

RBOB Gasoline Intraday Crash Update

I don’t think we need any trend lines when we look at this chart as anyone can see this basic intraday trend. What is much harder to understand is the diffrence between a bull market and a big bear market rally.  Chances are good that another wave 1-2 has finished and we are heading down to a potential wave 3 in Minute degree. I believe all the oil related asset classes have been in a big bear market rally and what gasoline is doing is just resuming the bigger trend.  All the forecasting in the world is irrelivant when experts take a big bear market rally and turn it into a huge bull market. The experts have forecast much higher prices at every major top, but yet the markets does the opposite and crashes.

This may be very hard to understand but its very normal and I know that my bullish wave counts must also come to an end.  Applying stock market thinking to commodities will not work as commodaties come from the diagonal family of patterns. The more choppy the charts are, the less wave analysts will tackle them. So far gasoline futures show a pretty clean impulse decline, which is rather rare.

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Gold Crashes Joining Oil in the Decline.

Gold refuses to soar as forecast by the “Crystal ball readers of Wall Street”. Instead gold crashes right along with oil this morning. Sure, the $1300 price level had importance but now it’s more like a major resistance price level. The markets love even numbers so gold $1200 could be the next even number price target. Gold still has to retrace two sets of previous lows before it even gets close to $1200. By then anything can still happen.  Gold needs for the US dollar to turn real bearish, to provide the push in gold prices.

This has not happen regardless of what the gold bulls have been forecasting. When an asset class moves in a direction we do not expect, then we don’t throw out the idealized road map, but must take a new reading in where we think we are. Gold looks more like a triangle pattern but it does not fit into a 4th wave. It works as another zigzag decline, but my degree level still may need adjusting.   As we can see gold can crash dramatically when it wants to, and you can bet someone will always blame some fundamental news why gold also crashed.  These gold bearish moves is not a surprise if we look at gold as just one big bear market rally. Even gold could have established it’s 2018 record high with gold $1375.

A move like this reverberates through many other asset classes, so it’s never just about one asset class, but many of them will react during the same time.

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Crude Oil Intraday Crash Update

Since late last night oil topped after which it produced a great swan dive.  Any asset class that was this choppy can always have a counting issue and therefore go higher than expected, but only time will tell if this crude oil counter rally is finished.  A move where crude oil falls below $64 will settle that argument, as bear market rallies are always completely retraced. The story that Europe is awash with crude oil was interesting.  They say, “It’s an unusual occurrence”. Europe is just hedging their bets on buying cheap US crude and not relying on Russian or mideast oil. It’s the perception of excess oil (glut) that can turn oil bulls into oil bears instantly.

We are going to get many more of these fake bullish moves, and each one will produce excitment thinking the worst is over for the oil correction. In the eyes of the public anything that goes up is in a bull market, but from an Elliott Wave perspective we can have very large bear market rallies.  My big bear market wave count starts way back with the 2008 peak, as we must never lose focus from where this WTI crude oil wave count comes from.  I’m sure we will see another counter rally in the next few trading days, but if the rally is finished, then no new highs should get established.

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