Daily Archives: June 14, 2018

USO United States Oil Fund Review

This USO Oil fund is not something you want to invest in. Even speculating in it will just frusturate you due to the slippage in the charts. About the only thing USO is good for is to short when all the bulls are confinced oil is going to the moon. The 5 1/2 year sideways market does not reflect the futures market one bit, even though I entertained the idea of a triangle in oil futures as well.  This is a very popular fund so many players are going to suffer huge losses if they don’t get out.

It contains not just WTI crude oil but contains heating oil futures, gasoline futures and even natural gas futures, so I can understand why this USO fund does not track oil with any consistancy.

Even the rally after the 2017 bottom was very weak, compared to what the oil futures did do. The entire move from the 2016 bottom looks like an inverted zigzag, which in Elliott wave speak means a bear market rally.  All USO ever has to do is fall to a new record lows, which will confirm that our present rally has indeed been a bear market rally.

In this case it’s an Intermediate degree bear market rally, which also gives us the clue that the next huge bull market will be at least one degree higher.  Two degrees higher and we would be looking at a Cycle degree bull move!

My records show that USO has not recorded an inverse stock split, but it is something that may happen if USO ever approaches the $5-7 price level.

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The Euro Takes A Beating!

This morning the Euro spiked up and then rapidly reverse and then plunged. That would be a surprise if we were very bullish on the Euro already. I have been bearish on the Euro for sometime already so this dip is no real surprise. To confirm that the Euro rally was just another fake, it would have to retrace the entire May bottom.  We see bear market rallies all the time at the smaller degree levels, but happens at a smaller scale, also happens on the bigger degree scales.

The US dollar also reacted, so it’s not an isolated Euro event.  I doubt that Italy has enough clout to bring the Euro down, but the analysts are determined to give you a reason for the decline if it’s right or not!  The world would end if analysts down find you a reason for every little price move in any direction.   I won’t be satisfied until that May 29th low is completely retraced.

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NASDAQ Hits New Intraday Record High!

This morning the Nasdaq pushed to a new world record high at just over 7301. The way the Nasdaq has been soaring the bullish traders are seeing some gains. To capture those gains traders have to sell or close off their trades. Of course the markets will do it for them as they will panic once a reversal starts to take place. We need more to tell us that this party is over. That may take until the February bottom of 6300 is completely retraced, as some little correction will not do anything.

I have to keep my updates short this morning but will try to update more later today.

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Crude Oil Intraday Topping Pattern Review

This morning crude oil created another higher high. There can always be another spike higher but this rally sure looks like it is fighting the bigger trend. Over lapping wave structures is the first clue, and a wedge is another. You usually don’t get one without the other as most bear market rallies can turn into wedges. The “C” wave part is all diagonal as it started near the bottom.  The only way we can see these small zigzags is with a 30 minute scale chart.  Anything bigger and you would not see many of these small zigzags.

The wedge looks impressive but we can dream up wedges just about anywhere if we are very biased. I believe there is more downside to come this summer so jumping on the oil bandwagon could overload it at a time, when the wheels are ready to fall of.

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