Daily Archives: June 8, 2018

DJIA 1977-2018 Review

Chances are very good that you could search the entire Internet for a wave count that dosen’t have a bunch of indicators on it. Wave analysts use smoke and mirror to baffle us with bullshit.  The problem with modern high degree wave counting is that they miss too many bull markets.  The main reason that the majority of wave counting experts are in SC or GSC degree is because they do not look for wave extensions. If we go back to 1977 I show three sets of wave 2 bottoms each one, being one degree lower in sequence. This produced a massive extension until the 2000 peak.

I was still a GSC degree wave counter in 2000 which forced me to flip numbers and letters around like I flip hamburgers on a grill. Every time we lay down a number or letter we are also moving forwards or backwards in time.  Imagine how much time difference there is between an Intermediate degree wave 3 in 2000 and a GSC degree wave 3 for the same peak. With a difference of 4 degree levels we could be early by 100 years or more.

They are calling the 2009 bear market the,”Great Recession”, This is milder sounding than the “Great Depression”. Depressions happen in large degree wave 2 crashes, but most of them happened in times where there were no safety nets. Today the government can just auto deposit funds to the poor and negate or buffer any depression. When we look at the DOW at the 1932 low, you would never know that a depression existed at all. Markets crashed into the 1932 bottom after which the stock market produced a 5 year bull market.  At that time it was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of March, 13, 1930 that killed the markets. Does this sound familiar with the trade wars going on in 2018? We might get the “Great Recession 2.0” but we should not get a depression, at the next Cycle degree wave 4 bottom. By the time they do call it a “Depression” it will be over, and Cycle degree wave 5 will be underway. This is when 5 waves up in Primary degree will be very important to understand, and what that 5 wave sequence will terminate at.

We are still years away from any major corrective bottom as solar cycle #24 has to end first. Many of market crashes have happened just a year or so before the next solar cycle started, so this could take us until 2021 to realize.

Every bull market comes to an end so if they think markets can stay  in a permanent high they we are making a big mistake. Investors just love to buy high, as they sure hate stocks when they are at major lows. This will never change as human emotions take over and all logic reasoning is thrown out the window.

The Gold/Dow ratio is at 19.5:1 with 17:1 already being expensive.  In May 2018 this ratio was 18.63:1 so the DOW got a bit more expensive since then.

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Euro Intraday Rally Update

The Euro has been in a rally but there still may be one upside move left to go, before it resumes it’s bearish trend. I have just started a wave 1-2 count in Minute degree, which would extend wave 3 in Minor degree.  The Euro could keep right on heading south from here,  just like the US dollar may have one more small leg down, before it also starts to turn back into it’s bullish trend. Even with this Euro rally and US dollar decline, gold has moved little. Once the Euro resumes it’s bearish trend then I can see gold head south as well.   Commercials are still net short the Euro so until that changes, I will remain bearish on the Euro.

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