Daily Archives: June 4, 2018

Euro Weekly Chart Bear Market Update

At this time nothing has really forced a radically new wave count as the bearish mood continues. The top trend line now had a third peak we can use and so far the Euro does not look like it wants to turn and soar to the moon. They majority are saying that gold and the Euro will soar, but the exact opposite is what is happening.  Since the 2015 the Euro has developped and expanded pattern followed in 2017 with a strong looking impulse.

The same bear market rally logic applies to the Euro as well. It to must completley retrace it’s 2017 bullish move to confirm that a bear market rally has occured. The Euro runs inversely to the US dollar, so the Euro must go up for gold to follow. This has not happened as the Euro is heading south instead. We are in a small correction at this time and there still may be more to go, but the Euro will resume it’s downward trend.

Commercials have bearish Euro positions, so until that changes this Euro bearish phase is still in effect.

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GLD Gold ETF 2011-2018 Review

I had to try different settings before I could use this chart to count out GLD. GLD tracks the price of gold not gold stock miners.  GLD tracks gold very well, like IAU does, and the trading volume always seems to be there as well.

The 2011 $185 price peak is my Cycle degree wave 3 location. Once I looked at the gold bearish phase from a diagonal wave perspective, things started to fit much better. The big problem is always trying to figure out where we are in this diagonal 5 wave decline. The explosive move from the 2015 bottom, to the 2016 peak, also works better as an inverted  zigzag.

What followed the 2016 peak, was a grinding decline, and in 2017  another gyrating bullish move. happened.  This bullish phase or overlapping wave structures, should be a clue that our present gold rally is struggling. When it struggles like this GLD is traveling against the larger trend.  Any gold chart or ETF gold chart is showing this bullish move, and the majority all think that gold is still going much higher. After all the bullish trend is still in place right?

The one thing that the majority will never figure out, what is a bear market rally and what is a true bull market. Only a very small percentage of traders or analystst know the difference.  I’m not talking about some imaginary conventional description of a 20% decline, as a simple 20% decline has little meaning in the Elliott Wave world.

From an Elliott Wave prespective, any bear market rally is completley retraced. In this case the low was in late 2015, which would have to get completley retraced.  Even if it’s only by a very small percentage. Since the 2011 peak we’ve had about 6-7 bear market rallies and they were “all” retraced, so chances are good that our present rally is also a bear market rally.

The bigger the bear market rally the more bullish investors get drawn into a bull trap, so identifying bear market rallies before the crowd does, is extremely important.

With about 15 of these ETF patterns in play and only “one”  ETF gets completley retraced, then all the others will eventually follow. This may take all summer and well into the fall, but a new record bottom will also produce a very good buying opertunity for the next bullish phase that is sure to come. This will be a Primary degree “B” wave bullish phase,  which will also be a bear market rally, but it will be a much bigger bear market rally by “one” higher degree.  The short description would be that gold can travel 1.618 times higher than the 2016 peak but not exceed any new record highs.  At about $175 we have a tripple top which would also produce an extreme resistance price level.

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