Daily Archives: May 24, 2018

Intraday Crude Oil Crash Update.

This is the July intraday chart of WTI crude oil. In the last couple of days oil has been crashing which is pretty obvious,  as the media is all over it giving you an excuse or reason for every little twist and turn in the crude oil price.  The question is in how big this correction will be as every expert on the planet only sees upside in the price of crude.

There are very big counter rallies which majority can’t tell the difference. With them any thing that moves up seems to be a bull narket. In the EWP huge bear market rallies always retrace their entire bullish moves.  Once the bearish phase kicks in, nothwill stop it until it is time.  An intermedeate degree decline does not happen over-night as we need more evidence that  this decline has more staying power.  Some say  oil may only correct to $50 but that would not even put a dent into all the COT positions. $50 would be about a net 50% correction which I think is not nearly deep enought.

In between $40 and $45 crude oil would get much better support, if the big bull market is still in play.  But if we all are fooled as to the natureof this oil bull market then, that $40 price level will mean little. When commodities crash they can crash fast, as oil has demonstrated many times before. The longer it takes oil to create a new record high, the bigger the odds are that oil is in a bigger bearish phase than what the majority expect.

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Phase Update

In late February I was calling for a US dollar counter rally, but as soon as it did charge up, the pattern was very impulsive looking which usally sends markets much higher than anyone expects at this time. The Euro is just inverse to the US dollar, which has been on a decline as well. It’s not just about one asset class as the US dollar bull market and bear market phases sends reverberations across many other asset classes as well.  The US dollar rally has been the reason why gold has been so lethargic. If a correction in this US  dollar bull market is due, then gold could see some bullish moves as well.  One little dip in the US dollar doesn’t turn gold into a massive bull market over night.

All commodaties I track are in a 4th wave in Cycle degree, and most of them are still far from being finished. With about 30 Cycle degree wave 3-4s in play, it may take until 2021 before many of them will be ending their respective 4th waves in Cycle degree. There are only a few asset classes that have seen a 4th wave bottoms, but in a few years time, many more will join the club. All these 4th wave endings will produce 5 wave waves up in Primary degree, but in commadaties, these 5 wave sequences can be extremely choppy as well.

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10-Year T-Note Intraday Rally Update

Since my last update the 10-Year T-Note traveled down a bit further and then started to reverse on May, 17.  I belive that this massive bull market in T-Notes has been running since the early 1980’s as an inverted Cycle degree 4th wave, and it’s still not finished.  All commodities show diagonal patterns for their entire Submillennium degree 5 wave sequence, so there is no way of getting away from counting diagonal patterns as conventional wave counting will not make any sense. This rally looks great, but it’s still very small and barely registers on any weekly chart.  Short term anything can still happen but hopefully, this rally has got some legs.

Market players could be running to T-Notes and cash as a place to hide from the potential bull market wreck in stocks.  In the long run another zigzag bull market with 3 waves in Minor degree can develop so we have to keep our mind open to this possiability all the time. The choice is simple enough if this bull market is not finished, as it must push to new record highs again. Mind you it may also take a few more years to play out.

 

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