Daily Archives: May 17, 2018

SP500 Intraday Bullish Phase Update

So far this phase of the stock market has done nothing by soar in one direction and then move right back down again. Investors are having difficulty in finding a lasting trend. From the April low we could still be in a diagonal ‘C” wave rally. From the April peak, the SP500 crashed again but added a 3 wave zigzag move to a lower low.  This little 3 wave structure doesn’t fit unless it is part of an expanded pattern. If that is the case then this market could crash to the May lows, after which another shocking rally could soar past the March high.

I would have little room to spare if the next move happens, but final ending diagonal 5th waves can produce moves that will surprise many of us. There is nothing here that indicates that a bull market correction is already over. Any Cycle degree correction needs much more time and depth, before a new bull market will be ready to be unleashed.

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Crude Oil Intraday Record High Update

This bull market in oil keeps pushing higher and it still may not be finished. At this time it looks like and ending diagonal could be forming with a drop to the bottom trend line can still happen.

Higher and higher price forecasts for oil have flooded the internet and in the short term some of them may still get hit. The question always on my mind is “what is going to happen “after” thier price targets become true. In reality they have no clue as, and besides if they did, they might get fired for being bearish.  I have no such hang-ups in calling an oil bubble, but it is impossiableto define an exact top at this time. The big question is, “Is this bull market just a big bear market rally (fake bull market), or is it the real thing.

There is nothing wrong in playing any fake bull market, but then you really have to know when to sell or go short.

They all thought that the 2013 peak was a bull market yet another crash ensued producing a complete retracement. That was a Primary degree peak and at present we may be at an Intermediate degree peak.

Bear market rallies have a dubious reputation of  crashing with “complete 100% retracement”, even if it is retraced by only slimiest of margins. The EWP is still the best way of seeing bear market rallies depending on where we are counting from. My bearish wave counts come from the 2008 peak which is my Cycle degree wave 3 peak.

The entire oil bull market is so choppy that I find it hard to believe that oil prices are still going to the moon. Commercials have establish large short positions and the majority of experts are “all in”. The is a bullish top heavy trade set-up and it can only end badly. From a shortage to a glut it only took about 8 months in 2008, so this bull market can change dramaticly in a very short period of time.

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Gasoline Blendstock Weekly Chart Price Surge Update

I’m sure you can read all sorts of fundamental reasons why gasoline prices are soaring. I get the same bullshit from the man in the street, that have never ever looked at a futures chart. In the end there is not a single person that can tell you what made gasoline prices go up and down in anyone of these patterns. When the oil market was in a glut in 2016, nobody will know or will remember specificly what turned the oil market northward.  I sure can’t that’s why I use numbers and letters to track the emotional trips that investors make. Never forget where this big bullish cycle originated from.

The big Cycle degree wave 3 peak happened in July 2008, as the expert cries for shortages were heard everywhere. Within 5 months gasoline prices had crashed which  the majority of experts never saw coming. The contrarians were calling for a crash and the markets did not disapoint us.

Today we are faced with the same situation as gasoline prices are going “vertical”.  Summer months seems to be a great time for oil related markets to crash, but the exact date and time is never written in stone. From the 2016 low gasoline prices have charged up with some of the wildest patterns I’ve ever seen. Once again we will hear all sorts of fundamental reasons why prices should keep heading north.

When prices are pointing up, I look down and build the bearish scenerio that will always come.  At $2.26 gas prices are stuck in limbo with no previous resistance from the 2014 crash.  What we do have is a great Head and Shoulder pattern, that from my perspective is a very bearish H&S pattern. Then between the $1.30 and $1.10 price range we have the biggest open gap I have ever seen in any commodity. This gap will get closed and it is only a matter of time before this happens. If we look 5 months or so down the road into the fall, then this is plenty of time for a crash to show itself again.  They call this Gasoline Blendstock but it is much lower than any prices you may find at the pumps.

It seems that turnings happen closer to mid year but this market has no shortage of surprises at least in the short term.

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