Daily Archives: May 16, 2018

ZGD Another Bull Or Bear?

This is an equal weight gold stock ETF and it shows the same pattern but pointing down, none of this sideways pattern where we can get fooled into thinking a big bull market is just around the corner.We still end up with a sideways pointing wedge and it has been long overdue to break out. Break out in which direction?  This morning gold stocks have already turned down,so I will not be surprise that ZGD will slice through the bottom wedge trend line. ZGD hit a new bear market low in early 2018 which many of the other ETFs did not do.

I’m dealing with many of these 4th wave scenarios  and if I’m right this ETF has much more to fall and will even set new record lows.  Another double bottom could fool us with an early bottom,whichmay take all summer to play out. After all we have to respect summer highs like 2016!

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ZJG Update: Bull Or Bear ?

The debate rages on as gold stock bullish investors are convinced that this sideways wedge is a bullish sign.  The initial start only took about 6 months, but this so called correction has taken about 22 months. I could see it if  these gold stock ETFs only took 8-10 months but 22 months is very suspicious.

ZJG has started to dip again and is getting very close to cutting the bottom wedge line. Investor will see thier accounts get shredded if they believe that they should be buying on the dips. The rich can play that game but a guy like me with a small trading account cannot ride a bearish trip down.

If this bull market is a 4th wave rally then chances are good a new record low will happen. This goes against many bullish scenerios but I refuse to pussy foot around in posting what I see.  This ETF is pointing sideways but other gold stock ETFs are pointing down so we have a real mixed bag with basically the same pattern in 1/2 dozen gold stock related ETFs.

Stocks, bonds and gold have been falling together and the mass media has been quick to point this out. It may take all summer and into the fall for this to become obvious, but it will also represent another great buying opportunity.

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10-Year T-Note: Is It Time To Turn?

The news that Bonds, stocks and gold are falling at the same time is no surprise. I have been warning about this for sometime already, but when the media picks up on it, it already becomes old news.  My personal guideline is that when your friends start talking to you about this bond decline, then it’s already old news. News circles the world about as fast as the crowd can do the wave at your basic hockey game. Every major bond trader has that type of news high on their reading list.

Yes their may still be a bit more downside to come but it looks like it may have already turned. I’m not going to draw you a pretty arrow pointing up as I think my readers understand the basics of the idealized form.  I expect a full reversal as this 10-Year T-Note bull market is far from finished.

We are finishing a 4th wave correction in Intermediate degree with a Minor degree zigzag. The current commitment of traders bond postion has shifted to the long position by a huge amount. When commercial long prositions get this skewed then the 10-Year T-Note bear market is going to run into very stiff resistance where a bull market has the base to grow from.

Just to get warmed up complete 4th wave retracement will happen and eventually this T-Year T-Note chart will soar up and beyond the top of the chart.  Chances are extremely high that diagoanl wave structures will be the main theme with another potential zigzag we have to contend with.

I can’t always keep up with any intraday charts, but I will try and catch strong turnings as much as I can. Everybody is freaking out about much higher rates to come, but I don’t see it that way if this bond bearish phase was just a correction in a bigger bull market.

Bonds have been in a bull market since about 1982 with a Cycle degree wave 4 bull market. This bull market is not finished so one more extreme high should happen. I’m dealing with 30 Cycle degree 4th wave patterns, and I have many asset classes where I also have 4th wave declines in Intermediate and  Minor degree 4th waves.

The moves that force short players into a trap are the best reversals, as the power of the bulls will slice and dice all the bears betting on a continued decline.

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