Daily Archives: May 15, 2018

HMMJ Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF Update

In the past month HMMJ has been on a rally that looks more like an inverted zigzag than the start of a new impulse set of waves. The bearish trend in HMMJ sure is starting to look like a 5 wave diagonal decline and if I’m right  we should see this rally die and then head south again. Another set of 5 waves down in Minuette degree should land us at a wave 3 in Minor degree.

Crossing the $14 price line by even the slimiest of margins is all we need to help confirm that the bearish trend is still alive and well.

I would not touch this ETF with a 10-foot pole until all reamaing diagoanls waves are show they are all played out.  If the impending decline turns into a wild diagonal then this will also help to confirm another “C” wave deline. So far this has not happend on a smaller scale, so maybe we’ll get lucky  and we get a pretty clean decline.

 

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Euro Intraday Bearish Phase Update.

I was expecting a counter rally and we were not disappointed as soon after the Euro turned south one more time. If another violent reversal happens then I may have to change this 4th wave count. What matters is if the Euro was in a big fake bull market fooling all the experts in the process.  It sure can be as I have many other currencies in the same positions.  Gold needs the Euro to turn very bullish and that sure does not look like it’s going to happen. This recent dip in the Euro was matched with a dip in the gold price. From my perspective the Euro/Gold relationship is still working.

The commercials were also short the Euro,  so until that situation makes a dramatic change, I will remain bearish towards the Euro. The US dollar also spike higher this morning, so all three are acting their parts perfectly.  These are only three asset class relationships I’m talking about, as our Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are showing the same patterns.  Many experts have forecasted for the Euro to soar, but by the looks of it the Euro is refusing to cooperate. Telling the difference between a real big bull market still to come or a fake bull market is the key, as the smartest market readers are also being fooled.  A new big bullish phase in the Euro will happen, but at this time it sure looks like the next big bullish phase will also be a fake.

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Crude Oil Intraday Gyrations Update

This morning crude oil also spiked to a new record before it backed off a bit. As I post a reversal is in progress so short term this recent high could still get retraced. The more violent, crude oil gets is the sign of a trend change that oil could be switching to. The price gap between this June contract and the December contract,  has compressed dramatically,  as the December contract is now only  a 65 cent difference.

The Gold/Oil ratio is also at record lows as it hit the mid 18:1 range since early April 2018.  Before oil crashed in 2014-2015 the Gold/Oil ratio managed to hit 17:1 so 18:1 is not that far away.  The entire world seems to be bullish on oil prices, as every price forecast imaginable is thrown at us. I’ve heard all this before  as this potential peak has happened two times before.  This will be my third oil, bearish phase I will be tracking and they all started with very high gold/oil ratios.

The WTI commercials are short oil, and even with the ICE futures they are in short positions. Until this scenario changes I remain bearish on oil.

Some only expect a pull back to $60 or so, but that is a very bullish corrective forecast. Even if oil is ending on an “A” wave in Intermediate degree, a net pull back of 50% can take us to the $40 price range.  A $10-$12 correction is peanuts, as that would not force too many oil bulls to reverse their positions.

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Gold Intraday Crash Review $1300 Price Level Busted!

This morning gold crashed about $23 breaking the $1300 price level with ease. I mentioned that this was a very high probability and this morning it happened. We still have a bit to go as 5th waves tend to extend dramatically at times. I dropped my degree level down one degree of this 5 wave run, but I have to stay below Minor degree as we may still have to deal with a zigzag in Minute degree. The $1300 price level was a mental support price for all the bullish price action that was supposed to make gold soar. Gold is soaring alright, but in the wrong direction.

The US dollar also spiked higher this morning as I believe it’s a bullish phase is also far from over. In the near term for this summer and into the fall, I will remain bearish. In the past, gold has had few problems with moving $200 at a time in both directions. This decline is far from over, but we have to be aware that violent reversals can happen at any time, even if they may be temporary reversals.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Bull Run Takes A Break!

Running with the bulls can wear you out, so the bulls are taking a bit of down time as they run in the opposite direction. The question is how far south will the run? The May run sure looks like an impulse to run as 5 waves have completed.   Short term we are still faced with violent moves in both directions, blowing us a lot of smoke to keep any real trend hidden. Eventually the smoke will clear as violent moves (volatility) is very normal when a major change in trend is in progress.  We have a wedge forming as well, so the bottom base of  23,400 has been hit 4-5 times.

We know that “sell” stops are all piling up below this price level, so when that fails the bulls might just capitulate in the short term.  The DJIA is starting to look more like the SP500, but short term any run like this can just correct and resume its charge back up.  I think the short term 24.300 price level will tell us more as that is where I would expect another turning to occur. This may take all week to clear up. Today is the new moon day and many times this can produce strong reversals.  I just don’t see crude oil heading north as the DJIA heads south. In 2008 everything crashed together, oil, gold & silver, gold stocks and all the other indices around the world.  11 years later we are faced with the same setup, but also with many asset classes being at different stages in  any crash.

Gold and oil also made some major moves this morning so I will cover that today as well. I will keep most of my intraday chart analysis between Tuesdays and Fridays as I have to keep my attention on the big trends first.  Any wave analyst can produce you all sorts of numbers and letters giving you short term trade setups.  Short term trade setups mean nothing, if we miss the biggest bear or any of the big bull markets.  The reason short term day traders are everywhere, is because they have no clue what the big trend is that we may be in.

Like Jim Rogers says, ” A big bear market is coming” and it could take a lot of other asset classes with it.

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