Daily Archives: May 13, 2018

E-Mini SP500 Intraday Update: With the VIX And Jim Rogers “Extreme Bear Market Coming”

Jim Rogers: Extreme Bear Market Coming

Jim Rogers comes from Market Wizard fame. When he speaks it is a good thing to read what he has to say about the coming bear market in the next few years.



This VIX index has been heading down and is approaching the start of a very violent spike. The spikes show up worse in this index than the actual June contract.  The top parallel lines roughly show where the Intermediate degree stock market bottoms finished at.  We still have a potential $9-$10 price range where the VIX can turn. Sooner as bottoms tend to come in with a “Flash”.  I would hate to see the VIX index hit another new record low, but I still look for a potential reversal as when it happens it can happen rather quickly.

 

As the VIX implodes stocks start a bullish phase, which I think is coming close to an end as the VIX can’t go to “zero”.  I will be doing some “Cosmetic” wave counting. Eventually all trends end so it will erase all those patched up wave counts in a flash. We have different wave patterns between stock markets and this is just one of them. Eventually, when any  new trend is more obvious, as waves may even smooth out a bit. We would have to get a very obvious 4th wave to show up before this run is finished, so many things can go wrong.

This bear market is going to be “More Extreme” which stands to reason, if we look at it from a Cycle degree perspective. 2002 was an Intermediate degree bottom with a small recession. The 2008 bottom was much worse than 2002, recession as it was one degree deeper. The next bigger degree bottom will be a Cycle degree bottom so it should be worse that than what it was in 2008-2009. The markets love to fool the majority all the time and the markets  may not even go lower than that 2009 bottom.  Even if they did go lower, all it would mean is we have a missed extension somewhere in our wave positions.

Contrarians will be buying long before the real bottom arrives as stocks will already be oversold before the real bottom even arrives.  Of course the real bottom at the end the next bear market will arrive when all the experts have declared that a recession is here and it’s going to get much worse. All bearish consensus will be in agreement with the parrots all singing the same tune. At his time the market will refuse to cooperate and start on a bullish phase that will not stop for another 8 years!  It all may take until 2021 as we need the power of solar cycle #25 to push markets up and away.

Commercial traders are very bearish by any stretch of the imagination, which can act like a brick wall stopping the markets march to higher highs.

Overall, I remain bearish on the stock markets until such a time we clearly see that a good correction has taken place.

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GBP Monthly Chart: 1979-2018 Elliott Wave Triangle Update

In some of my past updates I didn’t go back far enough to see the big picture, but with this monthly chart and an additional 1000 bars, we can go back to  1979 and start another count. I have a very high degree of confidence that the GBP is in one big Elliott Wave triangle, and if I keep the wave count as I had it, we may be too early for the 4th wave in Cycle degree to be completed. From my Cycle degree perspective all my work is based on 3 degree levels.

Primary degree, Intermediate degree and Minor degree, in sequential order  is what I have to find to make a better fit. Constantly looking for a better fit is the only way to eliminate the bad wave counts, which “every” wave analyst constantly has. This wave count position change also does not impact  the wave count I presently have posted,  as the short term target is still the same.  Wave 3 in Minor degree still needs to get completely retraced, but does not have to fall below the 1985 lows.  That 1979-1985 crash is just one single zigzag, followed by another completed inverted zigzag. This only gives us a count of two zigzags that have completed. This means we still have 3 Primary zigzags to go which still could be many years away.  Sorry folks, but I have no SC or GSC degree wave counts that I can give you.  I could give you nothing but SC and GSC degree bullshit if you want, as I spent a decade or more counting everything in GSC and SC degree levels.

Flipping big numbers and letters around is actually time traveling on paper, as one degree is the same as jumping forward or backward in time by 60% or more. This is a structural change and not a “cosmetic” change. Cosmetic wave counts never last and they always make us miss major bear and bull markets.

The commercials are net long by a small amount, but they carry far less risk. The speculators carry all the risk, who have”shifted” to the  to the long side. The mass media always report what the speculators are doing. Speculators are the trend chasers which always leads them into a trap sooner or later.  I have been using the COT reports for close to 20 years, which always work best when we see extreme differences between the two groups. If net positions get close to a 4 or 5:1 ratio, then I consider this as a substantial extreme. It also puts our wave counts, at risk of being wiped out.

I will be posting more GBP charts, but mostly from daily or weekly charts and Minor degree turnings.  I think this picture above will show much better as we head into the fall time period. Those that think that the British Pound is going to soar are in a bull trap, so they eventually will have to pull the ejection seat and bail out.

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