Daily Archives: May 9, 2018

Bitcoin Futures Daily Chart Bear Market Review

I have been reducing all my Crypto related postings as this is not my cup of tea so to speak. I don’t trade in or invest in Bitcoin related markets. For now it  may only be updated several times a month. I may even  stop posting altogether as I’m more of a gold, oil stock ETF trader. Bitcoins and our Canadian Medical Marijuana market imploded much like the Bitcoin market did so I’m equally bearish on Marijuana related stocks.

This is the Bitcoin cash chart which only moves during the day and is starting to fill out so we can keep that December 2017 peak in view. This chart shows a high of 19,315 after which Bitcoin crashed down to $6000. This Bitcoin crash was one of the easiest to expect as all the classic signals arrive just before the top.  Investors just love to buy high as they think it is the best time to get in. When the majority thinks like that then the markets only has one way to go and that is in the opposite direction.  The greatest fool has arrived and there is no one left to jump in.

Bitcoin has been on a bullish run, but then that $12,000 price level would produce extreme resistance again. The Crypto market is changing rapidly as Miners jump from one country to another in finding the cheapest electrical cost. Also new mining, hardware is constantly evolving, so to keep up with it all is not my specialty. Many companies related to Bitcoin and Blockchain have crashed and worst of all Bitcoin and Cryptos have never had an established track record of bug cycles. I’ve talked to Bitcoin investors or traders that had an extremely hard time to get Crypros converted to good old fashion US currency and back home into their US checking accounts. The two way flow must be tested to make sure no roadblocks exist, and once withdrawn it must only take about  3 business days, otherwise chances are good, you don’t own that asset as others are trying to claim it as well. I have a small Goldmoney account and it takes three business days to redeem US currencies directly back into my US checking account.

The speed of which we can convert cash into our hands is the most important factor.

So far not a single commercial trader has even opened up and positions going in any direction, so from their perspective, there is no interest at all in playing this game.

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Russell 2000 Daily Chart: Cycle Degree Review

In the big stock markets, contracts run every three months and not monthly as many other contracts do.  This is the unminipulated daily chart which only shows more when I use weekly chart settings. If I switched to line type, then it also changes the wave pattern dramatically. I created a big expanded count, which is pushing it,  because it should still clear the secondary peak, but not travel to new record highs. This is starting to look like a triple top setup which normally makes it a real challenge to figure what peak still belongs to the bullish phase, or the bearish phase.  We have a very narrow window for this count to get trashed as a true diagonal “C” wave seems to be unfolding.  The fast drop of the top is also a sign of an “A” wave decline, but then the following “C” wave should show more subdivisions. This would produce a very long “C” wave in Intermediate degree, but it would also land on the “B” wave in Primary degree that we need, to correct a Cycle degree wave 3 top.

Yes, it could still take a long time before this clears up, but that is the nature of the beast that we have to deal with. At a minimum the Russell 2000 should still fall to the 950 price level, which could also supply price support for a short period of time. All those that recommend in buying on the “dips” have no clue as to the size of the correction,  that a Cycle degree wave 3 peak can produce.

Bear markets come in 2-3 different flavors,  with single crashes that do not produce a bear market, like 1987 and even 2008. Then there are the bear markets that produce a crash (1929) followed by a bullish phase, but then the “C” wave can be a long drawn out bear market, like we had from 1930 to 1932.

I’m sure we will see a “C” wave bearish decline yet, but it would also be a signal that the end will be near. I try to be very clear on what the market have to do to stay in the rules, as this helps in finding out if we are wrong at the earliest stages of the game. The last thing I want is to drag around a bad wave count for 30 or more years.  A Cycle degree correction must subdivide down to 3 degree levels of Primary, Intermediate and Minor degree levels to get confirmed. With intraday charts we would run into Minute degree waves as well, but on weekly charts they may not show up very well at all.

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S&P Midcap E-Mini Update

The trend line in this index was on the verge of being cut, but so far has managed to stay above this bottom trend line. I would love to see this go a little higher, at least to the “A”wave double top.  I mentioned it before that this could be a diagonal “C” wave and this index so far is coming very close to it.

The Russell 2000 is also about the same, but it may end up with a triple top.  This market has been fooling around long enough for my liking, but this could work as a high “AB” wave in Intermediate degree. A very long tail would have to develop which technically I have no problem with, but I would not like to see this zigzag travel to new record highs.  In order to help confirm that we are over into the bearish phase, is for the Midcaps to fall well below my “A”wave low at the 1760 price level.

At this rate, we’ll be back into another  ice age before a suitable correction has played out! 🙄

No new record highs have been recorded since late January 2018 and a 2000 price level, so investors are not going to be happy if the markets don’t start producing better returns.  Traders have been brainwashed to move up protective sell stops, which are not “Buy on The Dip” orders.  The “dip”may be much bigger than anyone is even dreaming about as I believe a Cycle degree correction is coming, and no little 3 month bearish price action will correct a Cycle degree wave 3 peak.

At the very minimum, the 1200 price level must get breached, which could just turn into a warm-up stage for the rest of the bear market still to come.

I’ve dedicated the rest of my life to finding, following and confirming all 5 waves in Cycle degree, but not a single wave analyst has come forward in the last two years telling me that they want to track the same degree level. Some just love the idea of a Supercycle degree crash, but we are not even close to that high degree level, until the 5th wave in Cycle degree arrives. Beware of “any” 5th wave that is left uncapped anywhere on the internet, because they are breaking a major rule when the 5th wave is left uncapped!

I have more than enough different asset classes I track, so I will reduce any intraday posts between Saturday and Monday, as I concentrate on the bigger picture and more commodities and their related ETFs.

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