Daily Archives: May 4, 2018

Crude Oil Price Soaring To New Record Highs?

 

Crude oil is trying to break out, but it may not happen today. We  may have to wait until next week or during Sunday night trading session.  I’m squeezing out every degree level I have and only have one more left after which we hit rock bottom on my list of 15 degree levels. At such small degree levels I know that  I had a wave in the past that I missed.  This crude oil mania is being pushed to the limits as the COT positions are clearly telling us.

This June contract is still higher than the December contract which is not very bullish as well. Indicators that the majority of analysts use may be good for the short term, but longer term all trends must come to an end and the only question is when. Most of the time trends peak when I run out of degree levels to use. Anything smaller, I’d need an electron scanning microscope to see, never mind to try counting it out.  I’m very bearish towards oil and will remain that way until any major decline has started to kick in.

There should be a massive amounts of sell orders stacking up below present prices so when they start to get hit, a cascading domino effect takes place.

Even the Gold/Oil ratio touched 19:1 this morning, which is getting very close to the 17:1 ratio we had back in 2015 before it crashed. One report from a fund manager suggests $300 oil is doable, but all we need to do is take a quick inverse Gold/Oil ratio calculation, would give us a $5700 gold price. That little calculation gives you a good idea that the $300 oil price forecast is a figment of someones imagination.

As I post crude oil seems to have broken through to new record highs with a big intraday spike. That intraday spike probably triggered many of  the protective buy stops laid down by early short players. The jobs report this morning could have been the trigger!

In the end my 4th wave peak will get moved a bit higher, but this still is a pretty normal inverted zigzag for now. Yes, its a bit longer, but look what the another zigzag did from 1999 to 2008.

Many people thing that crude oil or even gold will not crash as gold/oil bull markets can work inversely to the stock markets. The facts are that during the 2008 crash gold, gold stocks and oil crashed together. I know because I tried to short GDX at that time, but got freaked out when it went against me.

To say that this scenario cannot happen again is ignoring market history, and if we forget market history so fast then investors will pay dearly for that mistake. As a wave anaalyst we have to jot down little numbers and letters so we never forget the past!   🙄

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Apple Stock: Ride The Buffett Band Wagon!

 

Warren Buffett has repeatedly been buying Apple stock at record highs, in a record high stock market. I’m sure investors have jumped on the Buffett bandwagon as only the rich can afford to buy into Apple at these peaks.  Maybe it’s time to short Apple now that Warren Buffett has stopped buying. I couldn’t put a wave count on this, but it looks like Apple stock can go a bit higher. If the entire stock market starts to implode like the Nasdaq, or DOW then do you think that the Apple stock price, well remain permanently high?  I doubt it very much, but only time will help to confirm that.

I think Apple is also heading to a wave three Cycle degree top, but if volatility in Apple starts again, then you know a trend change is starting to happen.

I will keep my updates short, this Friday, but will do more updates later and during the weekend. I will focus more on some of these ETFs as they are more important to watch than every single intraday stock market update.

 

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VIX Intraday Plunge Review

During the night the VIX executed a $5 swan dive, but it didn’t hit the water, but bounced off a trampoline and blasted right back up.  These things do happen with regularity, but it did not show up in line type settings.  For the fun of it, I call these computer algorithms gone wild! The speed they drop and return back up is just to fast for a super mouse clicker to generate. It seems that investors are so accustomed to low volatility, that they freak out when volatility shows up!  From my perspective volatility in an asset class is a sign of a trend change in progress. In the case of the VIX it could be a bear trap as the VIX bearish phase could completed.

This could be a wave 2 low as not the daily charts look like a decent correction.  Get ready to adjust your sails, as the wind is going to change direction soon.

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