Daily Archives: May 2, 2018

Mini SP500 Gyrations Review

The short term trend seems to be down as lower highs are still the main theme. I will stick to my wave 2 top in Minor degree at this time with this bearish mood now in its 4th month. Four months without any gains must be testing the patience of investors as they think this market is still going to the moon. The stock bulls are going to get slaughtered, so prepare your fridge for some fattened bull steaks, as the bears are sharpening their claws and will slice and dice every bull they attack! Nice bunch of bears we got here, as they will show no mercy until all the stock bulls shut up!

At least the January peak is still out in the open which helps as this is where the countdown begins. What a Cycle degree 4th wave correction will look like, is uncertain at this time, but a recent KOL posting has shown us a big inverted zigzag which can happen with the DOW. I favor a Cycle degree flat, but this count puts the “A” wave in Intermediate degree down and into the future.

I will be doing a bit of cosmetic wave counting, as in the beginning of any trend can be very fuzzy. Sooner or later the new trend will show itself to a greater crowd and that is when mini panics take place. The bigger the crowd the bigger the panics will be. A straight down crash like 1987 is unlikely as now there are limits to many of these contracts, which is supposed to limit the damage that can happen.

Increased volatility is a sign that a trend reversal is in play, so the volatility will not die down until any bearish trend reverses, and the bulls take back control.  I have at least 3 different stock indices patterns to deal with so this takes time to sort out. “Cosmetic” wave counting only last for a short time, but wave counters have been practicing “Cosmetic” wave counting for decades. They have been getting away with it, because very few people understand the EWP!

No doubt about it, I was a cosmetic counter as I was stuck in GSC degree which was very unsatisfactory work. The amount of bull markets that have been missed by professional wave analysts is staggering, but luckily people have short attention spans and cosmetic wave counting will continue to flourish. I’m a “structural’  wave analysts, which means I always go “back” in time to make sure the beginning structure is correct. Going back to 1929 and going over the entire Cycle degree impulse many thousands of times is too much like hard work. It gave me much needed discipline in my wave counting and I will always keep doing it when Minor degree waves don’t act like they are supposed to.   The hunt for the “missing” 1-2 Primary degree wave count, has largely been ignored, but it is the key that unlocks the wave counts in the present.

At this time I have recorded about 27 wave three Cycle degree peaks which nobody on the internet is even doing. Technically, if all my work was moved up by only “one” degree,  I would have 27 Supercycle degree wave 3 peaks. Since 2000 not a single wave structure of SC degree has ever formed, as very specific sequences “must”  form in order to be past any Supercycle degree wave 3 peak. Many idealized SC and GSC degree patterns have already been posted years ago, but they will be collecting electronic dust until at least 2029!

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IAU: Gold ETF Review

This IAU ETF seems to be very popular, but this morning the volume is around 500,000 shares traded. I like to look at other gold related charts as little differences can give a certain location hint.  One of the worst to recognize early is the darn expanded wave 3 bottom. Expanded flats are critical to understand as they are fake bull markets and if it is identified correctly, then a new record low is a given. Most gold stocks, ETFs sure don’t look like this as some of them went sideways while others were pointed down.  Analysts have faced this dilemma before as they were all wondering why gold stock ETFs were not catching up to gold.

This is not a gold stock, ETF, as it seems to follow the futures metal very well. I have many of these 3-4-5 wave counts in progress and they must constantly be checked if bull markets don’t behave like they should. This gold rally keeps us blinded by the bullish hype from the mainstream news. When the news drums beat in one direction, I look at the opposite direction long before the herd catches on. This IAU has not broken out of resistance yet, but this morning IAU made a small bullish move.  The herd will not see any potential bearish moves until some key support price levels get retraced.

If you think gold can’t hit another ugly low, then my wave counts will not matter to you at all, but if you’re not sure then welcome to the club!

Sooner or later, this gold ETF will send us a clear picture because it can’t fake a bull market forever. At this time, IAU has not exceeded that mid 2017 peak, which still keeps the zigzag within the “B” wave rules. Since I don’t have US funds to work with, anything I might buy at a major low will be in Canadian funds.

I remain very bearish as many of these commodities could slump together, surprising even the staunches gold bulls.

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