Daily Archives: May 1, 2018

Coal ETF KOL: The First Cycle Degree 4th Wave Bottom?

 

This afternoon, May 1, 2018  I took a detailed count of all the Cycle degree wave 3 peaks, that I have found in all the work I do.  The first quick preliminary count I took I came up with about 16 peaks! This amount surprised me a bit, but when I took the second count I came up with 27 Cycle degree wave 3 peaks. Some are a bit “iffy” and still need work, but in the hunt for Cycle degree wave three peaks, I saw KOL which is a coal related ETF. If you have never seen a great looking implosion, then here is a good one.

Once I looked at that $5 bottom, it looked like the Cycle degree 4th wave has completed. KOL peaked along with oil, and then also crashed with oil.  This deserves watching to see if we finished wave 1 in Primary degree. If that is the case, then a decent correction “must” play out. It sure will not stop at the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, as a wave 2 crash can go very deep to a 60-70% retracement.  There is a chance that this is a 4th wave rally, but a very steep decline could kill that idea. The bull market from the 2016 bottom looks very impulsive, so that helps the wave 1-2 scenario.

The initial crash from the 2008 peak was straight and steep, which is the sign of a zigzag “A5” wave.  The Primary degree “B” wave top did not soar to new record highs, which a zigzag in this position should not do. We could be in a big triangle with only the first “A”completed and 4 more wild moves to go.

Even with a triangle, we need a much higher move to finish. KOL has no leverage in it that I know of, and this allows the waves to form cleaner with less diagonal waves.

This is a beautiful pattern and I could just about use it as a real world example for the DOW!  I would have to shorten this bear market by about 4 years, which would make all moves much steeper and travel faster.  This KOL needs watching, so a wave two bottom can be confirmed. Having the potential of seeing 5 waves in Primary degree unfold, will be amazing. Any one of my Primary degree idealized charts from inventory, will help.

This would be the very “first”  Cycle degree 4th wave bottom that might hold, but again, it needs love and care to get  confirmed. I don’t have the time to track this in detail, but will try and catch it just “before” it hits a wave 2 bottom. Either way, any wave count idea must be confirmed, or it should be thrown out  and a new count initiated.

 

This is the idealized 5 wave impulse road map I would use.

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US Dollar Bullish Phase Review

When I was working the Euro wave count I saw a very bearish scenario. The USD moves inversely to the Euro which is clearly evident in the chart. There is a very good chance that the US dollar peak was just an expanded correction and that our February low is an Intermediate degree 4th wave bottom.  I was bullish with this turning but as a Minor degree wave 2. Shit, we could see 5 waves up in Minor degree that will shock and awe us all.   Stocks have plunged, but the USD is soaring so that sure does not help gold any.

Right now the USD is at a resistance level, producing a big H&S pattern. There are bullish H&S patterns and there are bearish H&S patterns, so if this bullish phase has much longer to travel, then the line on the left shoulder will get lifted. Yes, I now have 2 open gaps on the way up, but they could remain open for the duration. This little pattern showing a much bigger potential bullish move, is enough to trigger a monthly chart review instantly.

When something in the intraday scale goes amiss then this is a signal to count backwards to find our mistakes. This has implications that wave 3 in Cycle degree could have ended in 2008 along with oil. Our CAD is going the opposite way which had it’s Cycle degree wave 3 peak in late 2007!  With so many Cycle degree peaks completed it feels like this blog is the graveyard  where Cycle degree wave 3 peaks come to die!  😉

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DJIA Intraday Plunge Update!

All calls for one more blast to the upside are starting to evaporate faster than ice dumped on hot pavement as we are approaching a downside breakout situation. For now in looking at a potential Minute degree diagonal pattern which can smooth out as more and more people become bearish on stocks. Retracing the entire April rally will happen if my bigger bearish scenario is in effect.  Pretty words and fundamental jargon will not stop a bear market once the peak has completed. This is my third big bear market I’m working, but still each bear market will be different than the other two bear markets. I will keep my updates a bit shorter than normal for a few days, but I dedicated my time and effort to map all 5 waves in Cycle degree, and at best we are only at a Cycle degree wave 3 peak. My preliminary Cycle degree wave three peak count, is about 16 this week. Some are still a bit fuzzy but they will clear up in time. If I’m still short a Cycle degree peak, then I will count out a fringe asset class like cotton!  Working on 16 Cycle degree wave three peaks are more than what you will find anywhere on the Internet, bar none.

Ask yourself, “How many other expert wave analysts have even found one wave 3 in Cycle degree”? Not a single wave 3 peak in SC or GSC degree has ever been confirmed since the 2000 peaks.  If you think you see a good SC or GSC peak anywhere on the internet today, then I will find a sequential problem pretty quickly. Any SC degree bear market needs a very specific wave count to get confirmed as there are always three sets of simple corrections we have to deal with.

Our 5 wave bull market must be sorted out to what degree it is in,  as this is critical to determine where we are in the bigger picture. There can be no room for alternate discussions as being out by just “one” higher degree or one lower degree will fail.

Short term, things can always go sideways or swing wildly in both directions as that is the sign that a trend change is taking place.

At this time I have several different bearish wave counts between my 5 core indices, but they could also clear up or smooth out some in the coming years.

This May I’ll be starting my third year with this blog and last month saw the highest pageviews I have ever had! Over 71,000 pages were viewed in one month, which puts this blog on track for a million pages viewed by the end of 2018. Needless to say I’m impressed by those numbers and every single visitor deserves an extra big, “Thank You” from me.

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Crude Oil Daily Chart $300 0r $21?

It’s a new month and crude oil seems to be at a peak. One little desperate spike last night before it started to back off this morning. I have used this zigzag for some time and this last bullish phase is a diagonal 5th wave. I just read the story that a $300 crude oil was forecast in the next few years. I talked about all the crazy forecasts that we will hear, and this one is the icing on the cake.

On the bullish side, we had the $100 forecast, but they seemed to jump to a $300 forecast. Well folks, I trust my wave counting instincts a lot more, than price forecasts from the most bullish sector on the planet right now. These bullish forecasts from a biased bull inside any sector  is a magazine cover or “blog cover” story  indicator, and usually marks a peak as well. The Bitcoin peak had the same thing. I have been using the crazy forecasts as indicators for a long time, but they are a bit on the rare side.

$64.40 is the first resistance price level to break and from this May 1st peak it could be downhill for oil prices for the rest of this year. This oil bull market is ready for a “Big Dip” that will be far bigger that anyone expects at this time. An inverted zigzag is a very bearish pattern, and definitely not a bullish pattern, so this so called “oil” bull” market is just a big bear market rally and technically must get completely retraced. This is not based on some mythical isolated wave pattern, but I have “many” of these types of patterns I’m working.  Even with gold down and oil pointing up the gold ratio never broke a sweat and is still just under 20:1 today!

Once it starts to dip the $300 oil price forecast will disappear and the $40, $28, $21, and $10 oil forecasts will appear again. I’m very bearish on oil and when a small group sees that fact at the same time, then we usually have a mini price panic. All futures are leveraged asset classes and if you don’t understand the volatility yet to come, then you better run to cash!

Volitility just means a trend change is coming, so hang onto your hat because the oil winds are shifting from the  SW to the NW this summer.

Elliott Wave 5.0 is all about Cycle degree wave counting and at this time I have a preliminary “Peak Count” of about 16 wave 3 peaks in Cycle degree. That is the “most” Cycle degree peaks  that you will ever find on the internet anywhere!  Not a single expert wave analyst can even find one SC Degree wave 3 peak that will hold, but I’m dealing with 16 at this time. Technically speaking, we should have 16 Supercycle degree wave 3 peaks if all wave counts were shifted up by just one degree. In the EWP if you are out by one degree, we are out by a mile as that can mean being out by 60% or more. (.618)

Not until all 5 waves in Cycle degree are found and they hold, then after this is where wave counting enters the realm of Supercycle degree. If we are lucky this may happen closer to the 2029 time frame.

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