Daily Archives: April 21, 2018

ZGD: BMO Equal Weight Global Gold Index ETF

This ZGD is a fairly new addition to Canadian ETFs, which is a bit over 5 years old. The invisible wave count previous to 2013 can be used from any other Canadian ETFs with some differences. It’s an equal weight ETF  and will produce different wave patterns, but in general they will react the same as most other ETFs.  I show Minor and Intermediate degree tops and bottoms with the Minor degree 5th wave being a diagonal. ZGD made its bottom in mid 2015 long before any other gold stock related ETFs did. Again, I could be wrong on this, but I have to call them the way I see it, even if it means missing out on the next leg.

I hate to miss out any any bullish phase, so this is a tough call.

Any price action “after” the 2015 bottom belongs to the bullish side as a potential expanded counter corrective move. The 2016 rally is what I call a “C” wave bullish phase, which peaked suddenly in mid 2016. $14.50 CAD seems to be the peak after which all gold stock related ETFs start a grinding bearish phase, with parts of it fitting into a falling wedge. Falling wedges are very bullish indeed, but any wedge can fool us, especially if it is a fairly small one.

ZGD is now poised to do one of two things, blast up, or keep falling! “It’s now or never”,  as I like to say. All ZGD needs to do is decline just a fraction below the 2015 low, and then this market will have confirmed, that a “complete”retracemet, has taken place.  In short, we may find out the hard way what a fake bull market can do. Way back at the 2013 lows we can see a gentle sloping decline between 4 points. This is a bullish pattern as the markets are starting to bunch up.

I only have one Gold/ZGD ratio from today, and it’s sitting at 146:1. I may get an expensive ratio reading from the Mid 2016 peak, but that still requires more homework.

Chances are good I will update this ZGD more frequently as it deserves far more attention at this critical stage.

With most gold stocks pointing down and gold pointing up, many analysts say that gold stocks will catch up! I don’t believe in this “catch up myth” as they were saying the same thing at the 2011 peak and it didn’t work.

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Bitcoin Update: X Marks The Spot!

This is the cash chart which only gets updated during the day. (BGY00) It also produces different wave patterns that are not the same as the actual April contract. The next available contract month is May and it has so little interest that it’s not worth posting.  I tried something different this time as I applied a custom moving average as 25 day and 100 day averages. This produces a quicker “Death Cross” or “Golden Cross”. We just had a golden cross just a few days from the unknown bottom, which is marketed “X”. Jokingly, “X” = “I don’t have a clue”. In this case X marks the spot to the start of a new wave count.

So far it works as a diagonal, but a pretty clean one I label with a 5 wave run in Minuette degree. There still is upside left, but we start running into resistance again at the $9000 price level, with the big resistance line at just below the $12,000 price level.  Sure, volume in the entire Crpto world has improved dramatically, but it can also be the smart money selling to the gullable dumb money.

The bearish history of Bitcoins is relatively short, and if the bigger trend is still down, then this run must end. This would only be one move, but we need three moves  to help confirm a bear market rally.   We do have  a huge double bottom from the February bottom,  and if you like, we can even draw a falling wedge. If this wedge means anything I would be surprised.

The total Crypto market cap has improved by about $100 billion, but still down close to $500 billion since the peak of the good times in December 2017.

We are getting close to finishing a 4 month bearish phase that the majority thinks is  just a correction in a bull market. Bear markets and even bear market rallies are not over in a few short months but can last many years.

My Bitcoin updates will be once a week unless I see some potential dramatic move being setup.

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