Late last week volume in Bitcoins exploded and when you quickly scan the list of 1567 cryptos we can see the volumes all go green. Scan several hundred cryptos and you can see the great majority of cryptos all follow Bitcoin up or down. Bitcoin Dominance is still at 42.9% so where Bitcoin goes, the rest will follow. I may only have a week or so left with this April contract and the volume is so low that any futures charts cannot produce sufficient traffic to fill out the charts. Even the May charts are still so bad it is impossible to make out any real pattern.
I have to start switching to line mode, which I have done with the chart above. Any prices from Bitcoin futures will be off a bit from other quotes, but that is pretty normal. Nobody found a real good excuse why Bitcoins rallied, and it sure wasn’t short covering so common in futures.
My two trend lines are based on the bottom trend line and then one is dragged to the top which still keeps the decline inside the two trend lines. Now if Bitcoin suddenly decides to fly to the moon it has to wander far outside these two trend lines. I just can’t see why Bitcoins have left us in suspense just barely avoiding a downside breakout at the $6200 price level.
Investors still haven’t figured out that Bitcoins are in a bear market. A bear market will constantly produce lower highs and so far Bitcoin still fits the description. Overall, I’m looking at this market from a diagonal perspective which allows lots of overlapping patterns and still be in a 5 wave decline.
Usually a little wild triangle in a 4th wave position would give more of a clue, but any triangle would just be starting, so it could take all month to clear up.
Volume has to be maintained otherwise it is a clear signal that any rally will die a slow death. Commercials COT reports show that they have no interest in playing this Bitcoin game as they have “NO” positions in either direction. Only the speculators are playing this game and they are still net short by a wide margin. Maybe it all has to do with the new moon or tax filing deadline, but we may never find a good fundamental reason until after the fact.
On Friday the US, France, and GB conducted a missile strike after the markets closed. They do this so not to rile the markets, but Sunday night may bring any reaction as by then everybody in a the world has heard about the missile attack. Also, many times special forces will use the new moon to execute special operations, and if it falls on a weekend so much the better. There is much more to this missile attack than meets the eye, as some news only comes out in hindsight. I need to do more research, but why didn’t the Russian air defense take out any incoming missiles, again? The USA has been given out advanced warning for weeks already, so the attack should have been no surprise.