Starting back in 2001-2002 I had an Intermediate degree 4th bottom, which matches the bottom with most US indices. The pattern is also made up with diagonal wave structures, especially from the 2009 crash bottom. That’s one ugly run from the 2009 bottom, and it is a pattern only a mother could love!
From 2009 to 2018 looks like it is right out of our EWP books as the entire 5th wave is a diagonal. I counted the diagonal with a simple wave count, but technically they are all connected zigzags. Any wave 2 or wave 4 can contain a flat type pattern, but in most part waves 1-3 and 5 should be zigzags. Expanded “B” waves could make this pattern but then we need a very strong down crash to confirm that.
I don’t think that is the case as any “B” wave rally should be far more volatile than what we can see. Is this Nifty index also at a wave 3 in Cycle degree? I sure think so, but it will take an attentive wave analyst to confirm any bear market that we are going to get.
One lesser degree from a Cycle degree top is the 4th wave in Primary degree, not Intermediate degree. This wouldn’t even kick in until the Nify hits about 6000, but most of the time corrections will travel to the lower end of the scale, which is at the 3000-2500 price range. Sometimes even a bit lower. A 73% crash may do it, and a Cycle degree bottom will correspond very well with all other markets I track.
Looking at another wedge sure will kick the enthusiasm out of the bulls, so all I can say is “Watch Out Below”.
HMMJ ETF crash through that $15 price level, but instantly reversed. It also reversed right at my bottom trend line. This may only be a temporary stop and I would not think about going long until any potential diagonal decline has fully played out. Even then this ETF is acting much like Bitcoins have been doing as they have no leverage content inside the ETF. I can tell because if it was leveraged, these waves would be far more wild and violent.
There are no established cycles at this time, which makes it harder to trust any bottom even when it looks real good. If HMMJ ever hits 5 dollars, then we could even see an inverse stock split.
This is just a quick update as this potential “C” wave could be running out of steam. I would still like to see the USD spike to a new higher high, but that has a 50/50 chance of happening. 50/50 odds does nothing for me as I want better odds than just flipping any coin for heads or tails.
I will never call this type of a move as a “Truncation” because they can work as running patterns very well. Even any zigzag can come up short, so it’s not like it can never happen. Next week could destroy the top trend line, but otherwise the US dollar should resume its crash course.
Sure, there will still be many counter rallies, but the only real counter rally is the one that sends the USD back into a multi year bull market. That will not happen until the US dollar bears become trapped again, much like they were in late 2008. This time it won’t take 8 years or so, but should only last 3 years at best.
The US dollar index is being drawn down towards solar cycle #25, much like the USD was pulled down to the solar cycle #24. From this 2008 low the US dollar exploded right along with solar cycle #24, so I expect a US Dollar bull market after solar cycle #25 as well.
There is a huge USD wedge that will be finished in a few years, and these wedges can produce powerful bull markets. The VIX is a prime example of what happens when a wedge comes to an end. 1937 to 1942 also produced a wedge, and that wedge spawned a multi decade bull market.
So far the crude oil down trend has had a good start, but it is still a bit early to tell. I might have to drop my degree level down by one degree in the future, but right now I can keep the same wave count that I started with. If the bigger bearish phase is real then the small double to you see could be the record high for oil in 2018.
On this June contract $66.20 seems to be the record to beat.
In order to confirm a potential Intermediate degree 4th wave top we need 5 waves down in Minor degree or even a single zigzag type move also in Minor degree.
What we just finished looks like a 4th wave top because immediately after, diagonal patterns started to emerge. Diagonals have a nasty habit of showing up in 5th wave declines, so instantly diagonal wave counting has to be used. Any wild spike early next week could still take out the top trend line, but we should always expect wild counter rallies after a steep decline.
The Gold/Oil ratio is now 21.36:1 and this ratio should keep on expanding as crude oil declines. I would also like to see all the COT reports in oil start to show that the commercials are becoming net long. At this time we are a far cry away from that happening.
This year it looks like the June and December months are the two busiest months, which is great. The December contract is running about $2 US dollars lower, so this does not support the oil bull market to keep going.
The Bitcoin decline doesn’t seem to be letting up as we’re approaching big support at the $6000 price level. $6000 would clear the bottom of the spike, but the $6200 price level is the record low with a line type chart, so there is a 200 point variable. I’m posting a bit more frequently when the wave count is friendly and confirming the bearish mood. I’m showing a 1-2, 1-2 and another 1-2 count, with each 1-2 wave count being one degree smaller each time. From the Minute degree wave two, another three sets of 1-2 wave counts will give us a pretty good idea that we are extending the third wave sufficiently enough. Two sets of 1-2 counts is the minimum I like to see to confirm any 5 wave impulse.
This would not automatically stop the 5th wave from extending as well, as two waves out of three (1-3-5) can both extend. As soon as the count goes sideways or off course, then the impulse decline must be thrown out, or adjusted a bit counting from a different peak.
There are no signs that this decline is going to magically reverse and soar back into the bullish mood as we would need far sharper declines than what we have. Bitcoin players can’t short Cryptos like futures traders can, because if you could, you would see all these waves swing in a much wilder fashion and with far greater volatility.
Bitcoin players are acting just like any majority of players will, as they refuse to be strong buyers in a bear market. Since Wednesday the total amount of ICOs published hit a record 1600, but in the last day or so, about 40 of them vanished! This surprised me a bit as I didn’t think that, that many would disappear that quickly.
The tale of the disappearing ICOs could be just a glitch, and it may take a week to see if the trend continues. This all points to a decline in interest so some cryptos will be pulled and disappear. All Cryptocurrencies were created from thin air (wave zero) and back to zero they can all go.
Until I see the entire set of 5 waves down materials I will remain very bearish to anything Crypto related. I’m not against any speculating, but speculating on something that is not in a bull market will only cause players to lose money.