I have a large following from China and I wish I had more time to post the Shanghai more frequently. From the 2007 peak, the Shanghai crashed right along with all the US markets, but after that the Shanghai started to do its own thing. We have a major secondary peak that is a lower peak, which puts the Shanghai into a bear market. Big bear markets are just big bull market corrections from my Elliott Wave perspective.
The 1000 price range could put a bottom to the Shanghai as that would be the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. From everything I looked at most of the solar cycle turnings has been from the tops of solar cycles not from the bottoms as most US markets have been doing. Now the Shanghai seems to be drawn to the bottom of solar cycle #24, just like US indices have been doing.
It still may take 3 years for the Shanghai to bottom, but it can turn into a bull market right along with US markets just the same. Despite Trump’s efforts in a trade war we will still be in a world economy, relying on each others products. China is a big buyer of LNG products and imports more oil from Asia than the US does. China now gets more oil from the Middle East than the US does – Vox
It took the Nikkei index along time before it topped but in the last few months a spike has appeared after which the Nikkei has started to decline. The Nikkei has turned very close to the US indices turning dates. Which could be ending on a Primary degree “D” wave bull market. This also means that the Nikkei could suffer a 3 wave decline resembling another zigzag, but it will be one degree lower. My bottom big trend line is parallel to the top trend line, with the bottom trend line pointing to new all time record lows for the Nikkei stock exchange.
In a nutshell, the Nikkei could end on the same Cycle degree 4th wave right along with all the other 5 indices I cover. I did not keep a record of the Gold/Nikkei ratio, but presently we are sitting at a 16.6:1 ratio. It takes 16.6 Troy gold ounces to buy one unit of the Nikkei. This makes it about as expensive as any of the US indices. I would have to do some back checking to find the cheapest ratios, which I will have to put on my list. For now we have one ratio and I’m sure it is also hitting a brick ratio wall.
Checking the COT report with the Nikkei I see the commercials are net short by a ratio of 1.7:1, which isn’t all that bad, but the speculators are net long by a ratio of 4:1. The speculators are far more bullish than the commercials are bearish, which puts the speculators into a typical bull trap. A “D” wave bull trap.
The single rising trend line I have may give the Nikkei a pause, for a potentially strong counter rally.
During the end of last month we can see that the DJIA pattern started to bunch up. That broke any rhythm the DOW had as this correction sure looks like a triangle. Yes, I do have some overlapping waves, but they can disappear and even smooth out some, once the bearish phase kicks in again. With this DJIA we have a secondary peak, which I will keep working as a wave 1-2 In Minute degree. It may look short but we know that 5th waves can extend dramatically and in a very short time period as well.
If you see another wave count, anywhere that has wave 5 in Cycle degree at the 2018 top, then this cannot happen, you need one higher degree stuck on the end of a 5th wave. A Cycle degree wave 5 peak, instantly puts the wave counter into the SC degree world and all the labeling must change as well. SC degree wave 3 for a peak will not fit as well because all the experts counted that back in the 1929-1932 bear market. Two SC degree peaks within 89 years is far too short of a time period to be real, but it sure fits better into my Cycle degree set of 5 waves, with wave 4 and 5 still far from being completed.
Give it three years before the end is near and then solar cycle #25 will shred any bearish algorithms that are still stomping around in the markets, at that time. Even algorithms will not stand up to the power of the sun!
Trend lines can be twisted and shifted around subjectively, but I always try to keep two trend lines parallel to each other. Two days ago Bitcoin rallied but soon resumed its downward trend. Bitcoin is only $600 away from that $6000 price level and I see no reason why this important $6000 price will get retraced. If the 5 waves I’m counting out is close to being real, then a new Bitcoin record low will have little problem in being achieved.
This may still take well into next week when Bitcoin is in another downside breakout position. I wish I could paint a bullish picture, but this declining pattern shows we are in a bearish phase that could still last years. Bear markets can take Fibonacci years to play out so a 3 or 4 month correction is just a small blip on the radar screens. There are very few players in these futures contracts and not a single commercial trader has taken any positions at all.
Bitcoin investors are lucky in that any volatility is usually subdued when compared to the rest of the commodities universe, like oil or gold. So far the trend is still down, with no real end in sight.