Daily Archives: April 3, 2018

SP500 2009-2018 Bull Market Review

This is the index for the SP500 and does not move during the night trading sessions. I will try and only use two types of  trend lines with both trend lines being even. In this case the trend line is based on the top trend line and then it is duplicated with the bottom trend line. At times I do add a third parallel line in the middle as it can track trends that are one degree lower. I don’t believe in this perpetual bull market going on forever as “ALL” trends always come to an end, and they come to an end when nobody expects them to end. The herd of investors that surged in last week, are already losing money. They have been brainwashed to buy on the dips, but they are buying on the dips for what?  They are hoping for the bull market to return which tells me that they have no clue how deep this next correction will be.

The monthly ETF outflows have not slowed down last month.  ETFs Register Outflows For 2nd Month In March | ETF.com Those that are selling seemed to be more knowledgeable than the investors jumping in, so this does not send any overwhelming bullish messages to me. It all depends on what you believe, what the peak 2018 stock market wave count is, because that determines on how deep this market can eventually go.

I’M looking for a Cycle degree correction, not just some short blip in an ongoing bull market. At the very minimum any 5th wave will get retraced, and that might be the end of the correction, if we just finished a wave 1 in Intermediate degree. I have seen wave counts that called the 2009 bottom a wave two in SC degree, but then we would have to be at a wave 1 top in Cycle degree now! The markets are not ending in a wave one, they are ending on a 5th wave, and a very choppy 5th wave it was. In an entire sequence of 5 waves, the 5th wave is always fundamentally the weakest, even though they can extend and look very strong.

The majority of all expert wave analysts are working from a 4th wave base. I think it is impossible for a 5th wave bull market to survive three or more solar cycle seasons. The SP500 didn’t show any triangle between the 1970 and 1974, but at that time period, it sure fits into a wave 1-2 in Primary degree.

In our little “Blue Book” (EWP) a big correction can crash back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, and sometimes they travel a bit lower like the 2009 bottom did. To even get close to entering any part of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, this SP500 chart has to go below the $1576 price level.

If nobody knows where the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree is then even that forecast will be worthless and irrelevant. Since 2013 my goal has been to hunt, find and confirm all the 5 waves in Cycle degree. Until the 5th wave has been found and completed, there is no mathematical chance to slip into the world of SC and GSC degree wave counting. Every letter or number we change sends us traveling forwards or backwards in time. When we are counting in SC degree, then we’ve made a time “jump” from Cycle degree at the same time. In short a SC degree world is in the future and its’ forecasts mean nothing in our present day Cycle degree world.

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Bitcoin Rally Update

Some experts have proclaimed that the Bitcoin rout is over and the next big bullish phase has started! What? Do they mean Bitcoin prices are going back above $19,000 again?  I doubt any big  Bitcoin bullish phase will happen, at least not until all 5 sets of Minor degree waves has completed.

You can hope, wish, pray and use Black Magic if you like, but doing those things will not help a bear market to miraculously turn into a bull market again. In order for that to happen Bitcoin needs buyers to come roaring back, but buyers are not coming back. Well over $500 billion has evaporated since the Bitcoin crash and there are no clear signs of this letting up.

Report: 9 Cryptocurrency Hedge Funds Have Closed in 2018 – CoinDesk

The news that hedge funds are closing their doors, is typical in a bear market. It also does not instill a lot of bullish confidence.  We are getting very close to the magic $6000 price level, where Bitcoins can get into another downside breakout position.  Another H&S pattern is also being created.

As of this morning I see that 1599 ICO’s have been issued. I watch this number for signs of it slowing down or even reversing.  Bitcoin prices could head up to the declining trend line, but then the bearish phase should resume.

I will not produce Bitcoin wave counts for every little turn as I will not produce mindless trade setups.  The Crypto market is a very small part of the big capital base and until it can show big cycles like gold or silver does, it is not an investment. If the new Bitcoin devotees talk about Bitcoin investing, then you better know the difference between investing and speculation. Most Bitcoin speculators have no clue what technical analysis is, never mind getting good at it.

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