Daily Archives: March 19, 2018

HDGE Review: Has The Bull Market Arrived?

 

This HDGE ETF travels inversely to the stock markets. Due to its short history I’m not sure which index it follows the best. Either the DOW or SP500 will work.  We really don’t need all the history if the 2015 4th wave is at the correct position. If the stock bull market is to continue like once they all said it would, then the original HDGE decline would have to go much, much lower.

Until it hits $5! At $5, many ETFs can create an inverse stock split, of 4:1. At $8, and a 4:1 inverse split, this HDGE would then be $32.

Many ETFs can pivot around the even Fibonacci numbers like it is now doing at $8. When I count up by jumps of 1.618, we get $13, $21, and $34! I love the Fibonacci whole numbers as I use them to calculate time in years, between tops and bottoms and the lengths of many bullish moves.  Make the jump from 8 to $13 which gets you to the top of my 4th wave in Intermediate degree. (Red)

When HDGE gets close to that, I’m sure we are going to run into a serious correction, or some resistance. Then when HDGE starts getting close to the $21-$22 price level more resistance should be expected. The ultimate prize would be for HDGE to hit $34 in the next 2-3 years.

The lift off we have so far from the $7.43 bottom looked like it contained a perfect impulse pattern, but it was the correction that gives us a clue to what’s next.  This correction was “not” a zigzag but it counts out very well as an expanded flat. (3-3-5)

To many wave analysts think an expanded flat in the wave 2 position should not happen, but they do. Even if they just happen once, then I look for them all the time and allow flats or expanded flats in any wave 2 position, in any degree.

From 1970-1974 my wave 1-2 in Primary degree was also an expanded flat correction.  (3-3-5) No, it was not a triangle, like all the SC and GSC degree wave counters are still trying to tell us.

What it should mean is that the next move up could be very strong.

Tracking HDGE also helps us to judge when the big stock bear is finished. I will post HDGE a bit more often, but I will not post every micro mini, turn. All the detailed wave counting that we can dream up will mean nothing, if we keep missing bull markets that could gain over 400%.

I haven’t tracked the Gold/HDGE ratio that much, but I have enough to give us some information how skewed this ETF has become. As HDGE declined you could buy more and more shares with one Troy ounce of gold. Today we hit a 165:1 ratio. In 2011 which was the start of the stock mania phase, this ratio was at 63:1. We may not get close to that again, but we do have a target we can use for now.

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Gold Intraday Bullish Reversal?

I am looking at a potential move that might resemble a 5 wave run in a “C” wave bull market. We already have a higher low this month, which is the conventional description of a bull market. Gold is still creating higher lows since late 2015 when the bullish phase began.   I mentioned it many times that gold should still completely retrace the $1375 price level, which it had tried to do many times but has failed each time.

As long as the US dollar has not finished its biggest bearish move, then gold will see upside pressure regardless of what the expert opinions are at any given time.  We can’t rely on supply and demand scenarios as there is no end to the supply when we see pictures of the gold in the vaults.

Any rate increase may stun the gold bulls temporarily, but back in the 70’s rates were soaring right along with gold so it can happen again. The rate increases scheduled don’t even amount to a bee sting compared to what happened in the 70’s.

I think we will see the end to any rate increases by watching the 30-day Fed fund rate after it has flattened for a year or so. It may not even last that long as the first 1 to 2 pauses might be enough.

The gold bullish cycle so far has been very choppy, which do not fit into the perfect world of an impulse.

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Mini-SP500 Intraday Gyrations Upate

At this time it looks like I will have to run different wave counts in about 3 out of 5 indices. The wave counts are dramatically different with the tradeable contracts than from the indexes, which only move during the day. Futures that are traded have a wild and wooly look and feel that can distort the wave counts.  It could all smooth out a bit, which I have noticed in other future contacts as well.

This Mini SP500 contract did not travel to a new record high which I can’t use as a truncated 5th wave, but it must belong to the bigger bearish phase already.  There could be some real violent moves in both directions later this week as any Fed announcement can send markets into a dizzy spin.  I will not be happy until this market takes out all the lows of last month, but it could rest just before any downside breakout may occur.

Wave 2 in Minor degree may be finished and I’m sure I don’t need to draw out the rest of the move. By weeks end things could be different if diagonal wave structures are involved. It’s still too early to tell if a big flat or a big zigzag will dominate, but the big triangle can still be ignored at this time. We don’t have enough time before solar cycle #25 starts, for any triangle to completely play out.

I’m bearish no matter what we get, even though I may turn bullish at some counter rallies.

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Nasdaq Intraday Record High Now Visable In The Rear View Mirror!

Finally the markets have started to succumb to bearish forces again. It started last week and now looks to carry on with its bearish trend until at least after the Fed announcement this week. The white elephants in the Nasdaq, like Facebook, also managed to execute a swan dive this morning.

I will also be forced to move my Cycle degree peak over, but I will wait on that until this decline starts to pick up more steam.  Those who have never done any historical stock market research will repeat all the mistakes of the past, thinking that markets can’t crash when the fundamental analysts paint us a rosy picture.  Hate to break it to you, but markets always end when the majority think it can’t. When those two words like “New Era” get regurgitated by all the parrots in the world, then the big party is over.

Back at the peak in 2000, the new era mantra was also repeated many times, so it’s nothing I haven’t heard or read about before.  In Britain and the USA it was called the “Canal Age”, until the railroads came along and produced the new age of train travel. When the majority call it a great new age, then it is usually over and a market crash ensues with recessions or even depressions. In 2007 they had no clue that a recession was coming, but it sure arrived in a hurry.

Then, under the worst fundamental conditions, like in late 2008 the market turned by early March 2009 and then soared for another full 8 or so years.

The other indices have to follow and until they make a clear effort to join the bearish party, I use caution just incase we have another fake correction.

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