Daily Archives: March 13, 2018

HMMJ Marijuana ETF Update.

 

This marijuana related ETF is what I use to track the hemp related companies. Since its vertical move HMMJ has been in what looks like a correction. Sure, there may be more upside, but over all the marijuana market has been swamped with growers getting into the action. This has produced a legal marijuana glut in Canada and the wholesale price of hemp has been crashing for two years already. The best days are already gone even before they seemed to get going.

There is not much difference between the hemp industry in Canada and Bitcoins. We had our “Hemp Mania” blow its top earlier this year not that far apart from the Bitcoin Mania. The days of easy money are over, and it will take a considerable amount of time doing due diligence to figure out which companies still “may” soar!  I don’t have the time to do all that work, as I have my hands full with maintaining all my wave counts.

I kept the degrees small and started with a Minuette degree 3 wave zigzag, followed by two sets of 1-2 counts. The second 1-2 wave is two degrees lower, but I use that as if a wave 3 extension is coming. If this ETF deviates from its internal impulse structure, then this wave count will get instantly thrown out.

We may be in a triangle, but then we need three more zigzags to confirm it. In this potential triangle the second zigzag would also have to go much higher and add onto the “C” wave. At times there is very little difference between an “ABC” count and a “1,2,3” count, so we have to see if this scenario plays out.

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US Dollar: Resuming it’s Bearish Trend?

The US dollar has been in a bearish mood lately, but it can still create another corrective pattern as well. 89 is just one rounded Fibonacci  numbers I use, and the US dollar has turned around that number before. Commercial traders are still net short, so chances of jumping into a huge USD bullish phase are low on my list. Wild counter rallies do happen and they can’t always be spotted before they happen.

Any decline in the US dollar for “any” fundamental reasoning, will help keep the bullish pressure on gold.  At least until the entire US dollar bearish move has completed. There are no contrarian indicators showing up,  that say we are at the bottom of a US dollar bear market.  We might get another “C” wave attack, that can force another leg up with the US dollar, but then I would bet that the commercial traders positions would also have shifted dramatically.

In the last few days, the declining  pattern has been a diagonal pattern, which could run out of steam in the short term.

This could be very slow going as well, so I will not report every little wave made with the US dollar cash index. Futures are leveraged asset classes which produce very wild moves. Futures are played in both directions creating these wild swings, which Bitcoin traders can’t really do. The lack of  short players in Bitcoin reduces the wild moves, otherwise the Bitcoin waves would display insane moves in both directions.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Review: Still Lagging Behind

The DJIA is one index that is still running well behind the Nasdaq and others. The Nasdaq is the only index that has traveled to new record highs, but others are catching up, or getting close. I also switched to a line type chart, but this also changes any wave counts, I may be working at the time. If the DJIA is still going to play catch up, then it still needs more time to accomplish this task.

One burst of energy could push the DJIA to my top trend line, which would definitely force another wave count review.  I have some very questionable short term moves, that I don’t like, but those are the things that eventually need to be resolved.

The three trend line angles, is based on the bottom line, and the middle line helps to outline one degree lower wave patterns. We have the new moon coming on Saturday, and many times moves correspond with expiration dates closest to the 10th and 21st of each month.

Until this market displays a sustained decline like Bitcoin has been doing, then the end of the bull market is questionable in the short term.

President Trump is doing everything in his power to keep this bull market going, but sometimes bull markets end out of pure exhaustion, with nobody left to get in. Remember the idiots that love to buy high have to find other suckers to sell to,  and one day those greater fools will not show up. It must be a new bunch that has no clue what “Technical Analysis” or “TA” even is. The concept of contrarian thinking is completely absent in todays world, but from an EWP perspective, we must never forget any contrarian thinking.

When we do forget, we don’t see it “coming”so we miss all the market crashes and impending bull markets. Investors that think that bear market’s like 2001 and 2008, should never happen, are living in a delusional dream world, or they just arrived from a different planet. Of course, if a new group of aliens is buying into this market, then they also did not listen to or record earth’s market history.

The Gold/DJIA ratio spread increased a bit to 19.44:1 which makes it more expensive when compared to gold. About 21:1 is my top ratio record, which will be hard to beat.

No market stays permanently high, as they do wear out the participants if players are no longer make any gains. It’s been about 6-7 weeks already where the crowd that got in, in January, have made no gains or just stayed even.

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