Daily Archives: March 12, 2018

Crude Oil Intraday Update

I carried on from my last wave count and so far I can still make a bearish scenario work.  As I post, crude oil was going up so any alternate move could slice through the top trend line  The Gold/Oil ratio has hardly moved and is averaging around 21.5:1. Commercial traders are also net short so they don’t see a real bright bullish future for WTI crude oil. The USA is going to join the world club in being in the top three oil exporters, right along with Russia and Saudi Arabia.

I’m bearish on oil, but I’m looking for the pattern that shows the best 3 wave corrective crash before I turn super bullish on oil gain. Once this oil chart starts to do too much of sideways dance, then another better fitting wave count should be found.

This is always harder than it sounds, but constantly looks at the bigger picture as well. The top trend line shows that we have lower highs  still developing. At this intraday scale, this type of a trend line can get trashed very quickly.

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Bitcoin Intraday Update

I have moved the top horizontal line down to the $11,800 price level just so it is viable with this chart, but $12,000 would still be the magic number to break.  The volume related to  these futures contracts is thin to say the least, and I also have to move into the April very soon.  These H&S patterns I’m showing are very bearish signals, as the total capital volume has been crashing for many weeks already.

The speculators, who are the only people playing this Bitcoin contract are net short by a ratio of 1.37:1 which does not help the idea that some super Bitcoin bullish move is just around the corner.  This morning the Bitcoin price took another nosedive,  and all we have to do is wait to see if it retraces into another lower low.

I’m looking for another 3-4-5 wave set, and hopefully we will get some extensions thrown in, to give us a jolly good show.  It’s no longer about a wave count, as there is not enough volume. No volume, no real buyers, and when buyers don’t show up, the price can only go down.  No Tulip buyers showed in February of 1637 and within months the Tulip Mania ended as Tulip prices crashed.

I might not be able to catch the smallest turnings but I will try to catch the bigger reversals.  Bitcoin is “Funny Money”, just like the Super Mario Coins you collect in the video game.

I have spent enough time on Bitcoins for now and something radical must happen to break Bitcoins out of this bearish mode, and simple news events will not do it. Once a bearish trend takes hold, “no” amount of “jawboning” will cause it to change directions.

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