Daily Archives: March 9, 2018

Nasdaq New World Record Highs!

As I’m posting the Nasdaq has hit 7111 already and there still seems to be some momentum behind this move. All other indices I cover need to play catch up, but we know that the Nasdaq can march to a different drummer. In the end we may end up with a completely different wave count, for now.

The February decline sure can fit as a single 5 wave decline which could be part of an expanded top. From the February bottom I believe we have another diagonal wave structure, which created the new record high this morning. Everything seems to be rosy for the majority of investors again as chances are good this, “Tariff War” was just a lot of hype, or any real tariffs on steel and aluminum don’t matter much.

Since the late 2015 bottom we had a massive 5th wave extension which borders on being a diagonal wave structure.  In our EWP book they call it an “Ending Diagonal” but they do not count out the zigzags that make up any diagonal move.  The 4th wave in Intermediate degree is one warning, and a diagonal 5th wave is another, so this ethusium will get replaced by pessimism again.

One thing good about this new top, is that it hasn’t created a double or even triple top. When we do get them, then it is much harder because we have to work out where the decline starts from. In a Cycle degree zigzag, we can’t have the markets soar to new highs, as that breaks every rule in the book, but flat corrections sure can produce “B” wave highs, before they plunge.

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Bitcoin Intraday Bear Market Crash Update

At $9200 support for Bitcoin failed, with a downside breakout. Today’s bottom at $8500 was helped by the previous wave two bull market in early February.  Even though these are futures contracts, the wave patterns are not as violent as any real leveraged futures contracts are. Even when Bitcoins are in a diagonal decline, they still have a smooth flow to them.

It took me awhile to see this, but the different flow pattern is due to the fact that the majority cannot directly short Bitcoins. Since Bitcoin future’s came out, the commercial traders still have “NO” positions in either direction. Only the speculators are playing and they have been net short, since the futures started trading. $12,000 was the magic Bitcoin number to beat and Bitcoin refused the challenge to cross that line.  This has produced a major H&S pattern that not to many Bitcoin investors even see. Those that are into Bitcoin and think they are “investing” can’t even read charts, never mind  learning the basics about, what “Technical Analysis” is. “TA” is an invention created back in the 70’s when computers really started to improve in speed.

At this time I’m very confident in saying that Bitcoin prices can fall well below $5000 and even $4000 would not surprise me. At $4000 USD,  Bitcoin is getting close to the cost of producing a single Bitcoin.  This will force many Bitcoin miners to go out of business.

The total Crypto ICO list will start to shrink when this starts to happen. At this time about 10 per week have been added onto the list.

In the last two months or so, Cryptocurrency capitalization has crashed from $829 billion, to $369 billion. $460 billion has evaporated  in an electronic puff of smoke. This shows me there is no real stomach to jump onto the Bitcoin craze when prices are free falling. Talk to any younger Bitcoin investors and chances are good they know little or nothing about “TA”.

My question is, “at what wave count that my wave 5s in Minor degree will end at”?  Bitcoin, which some call “Super Mario Coins”, or “Bitch Coins”, could eventually “flat line”and never rise from the ashes again. Bitcoin is a commodity with no intrinsic value and no amount of denying this fact will change where Bitcoins will end at. The fact that the SEC will force Crypto exchange registration is a good thing, as all the big illegal players need to be weeded out!

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