Daily Archives: March 4, 2018

Gasoline Futures Daily Chart Update.

Since the June 2017 bottom, gasoline futures have a much better looking impulse pattern than crude oil.  After the January chart peak, gasoline started to crash in a dramatic fashion. It may seem dramatic to investors that don’t expect it, but commodities act like this most of the time. Trend changes can be very dramatic as volatility goes crazy.

I may have to change my “C” wave top, but any 5 waves down in Minute degree, shouldn’t need to be changed just yet. We can see that this gasoline chart has formed a H&S pattern, which at major tops should be a very bearish indicator.  It may take a week or so, but gasoline can still break to the downside by a wide margin. In order for a full fledged bull market to materialize, we need a very obvious 3 wave decline, not a 5 wave decline.

With a potential 5 waves still coming I would be foolish to give readers a clear cut retracement price level.  At 1.50 we could get temporary support, but who says gasoline can’t fall to 90 cents?

With the world going into a recession, why would the demand for gasoline get stronger?  The mass media, is the last group of people to figure this out, and when they do, then all the news they spew out will already be irrelevant.

General elections in Mexico will be in July 2018, and if a new president gets in, they plan on taking over the oil refineries and build more.  This would hurt all the US refineries and send gasoline prices crashing as another gasoline glut can develop.

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Canadian Dollar 1980-2018 Monthly Chart Review


On my last Canadian dollar daily futures chart update, I had the recent peak as a 4th wave top in Intermediate degree. I can spend the entire weekend reviewing it all, and I “always” do this manually with pen and paper. Once I get a hand drawn wave count looking decent then this wave count gets scanned into my computer. Most analysts would be completely lost if they had to double check for errors by hand!

I realized that the 4th wave in intermediate degree only worked for a higher degree, so with this version I dropped my Intermediate degree 4th wave, down to a Minor degree 4th wave top.  Any one single degree change like this always has a domino effect, and all wave positions must be redone to as far back as we have records for. That sounds too much like work, so the majority of expert wave analysts practice cosmetic wave counting. I practice what I call “structural” or sequential wave counting.

Being in a degree higher than we should be, makes all the wave counts far less sensitive, and causes us to miss complete bull markets.

Worse yet we may not see a bear market coming, when all contrarian indicators say a bear market is coming. This CAD bear market has been around for 10 years already, and our recent decline should start to confirm this in the next year or so.

I have mentioned that a triangle is pretty rare, but I think I do have a few of them. On the late 2007 peak, I have a wave “D” in Primary degree and an “E” wave in Primary degree, must follow. We can’t have 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, because it simply will not fit mathematically and sequentially.  The largest 5 wave sequence I can have anywhere “after” the “D” wave, is a Minor degree run.

Canada is going into recession and it sure is not going to go alone. Many have said that our CAD follows the oil price, so if this is true, then a crashing oil price must also resume.

The mass media has declared a “Trade War”.  I’m sure many countries in the world will retaliate until we’re all in a worldwide recession.

The mass is starting to clue in, as It’s not rocket science to know what is going to happen, when taxes or duties are increased   dramatically.  Just read what happened when the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed in June, 17, 1930! This is the worlds second trade war in a Fibonacci 89 years.

In Ontario they voted in a 20% minimum wage increase and look what happened there, as thousands are losing their jobs.

Our CAD has lots more downside left, until the commercials shift into new net long positions again. Unloading our Canadian dollar will become the new favorite pastime.

Our dollar is imploding down into the bottom of cycle #24, so when this completes we could get a massive Canadian dollar reversal that would last for many years.

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