Daily Archives: February 2, 2018

DJIA Intraday Decline Update

This decline, we are now in should not be a surprise to anyone that takes this market seriously. Why? Because it always seems to happen during the last ditch effort to max out  RRSP’s for the 2017 season.  It has happened so many times before, that it’s become old news. You can’t blame this decline on profit taking as the smart money has left a long time ago.

It goes to show that investors care less about buying low and selling high, but they worry more about topping their RRSPs. We are about half way down and then the entire January bull move will be erased. Billions have gone up in smoke already, and there is much more carnage to come. Longer term the entire Trump rally will also go up in smoke, as everyone is underestimating the degree level of this decline.

Any Cycle degree correction has three simple possible outcomes, flat, zigzag or triangle and in that order that I expect. I favor a flat because wave 2 in Cycle degree looks more like a running zigzag.

By the time the Trump rally has gone up in smoke, we are looking at trillions of dollars that will disappear. If you think you can buy on the dip, then your thinking is still over on the bullish side. Not on the bearish side, that we need to focus on.

I had to move my degree level up by one degree because I was using the bottom of my list already. My cutoff is always Miniscule degree so I can better gauge where I am, plus we damn near need an electron scanning microscope to see anything smaller.

I will try and cover the gold and oil markets by Monday, but I have been fighting this flu bug for a week or so already.

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VIX Impending Correction.

The VIX sliced through the top trend line before it reversed. This trend line sure seems to give any VIX bullish phase some pause, but eventually the VIX would have to clear 5 of the biggest spikes, by a wide margin.  The VIX could dip down to the $11 price range before it bottoms and soars again.

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Mini SP500 Decline Update

So far the 5 markets I cover all have started to turn lower. I won’t call it a crash as there is a certain amount of order to this decline. My top is a Cycle degree top so I need a 3 wave type correction in Primary degree to complete a Cycle degree correction.  I like to be very specific in the pattern and degree that we are supposed to get, so when we are wrong it can give us an early clue as well. Sure the intraday waves are about as wild a wooly as we can get, which always need adjusting as the counter rallies get bigger and bigger.

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Record ETF Demand In Januaray From A DJIA perspective

Record ETF Demand In January | ETF.com

It just amazes me how the herd keeps jumping into markets at record highs.  They have done this at every record high since 2000 so it does not surprise me that they are doing it again. Due to the fact that since the 2009 bottom we had a “Big and Tall” bull market, many wave analysts have increased their wave degree accordingly. One analyst has the 2009 bottom as a SC degree wave 2 bottom.

Other popular wave analysts still have the potential for a wave 3-4 in Primary degree. Sorry folks, but 5th waves are always fundamental the weakest in the links, and they never last multiple generations. The majority of wave analysts are  still pushing, an 89 year old 5th wave extension.  From the last 2016 4th wave bottom this market shot straight up, with hardly any clear subdivisions. Vertical moves like this is a sign of an ending wave pattern,  not the start of something better to come.

Everything tells me we could be in a wave 3 in Cycle degree and that we are going to get a Cycle degree correction, with 3 waves in Primary degree. I’m going to keep my updates brief,  as I fight through this flue.

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