Daily Archives: January 15, 2018

HMMJ, Another Look At The Marijuana Related ETF

I’m going to make this HMMJ ETF the mainstay ETF that I will track the high flying marijuana stocks. It’s in Canadian funds but there is a US dollar version out as well. The last time I mentioned that the vertical move this ETF has made could not be maintained, and this correction is a result of going too fast, too far.

I will not post intraday results, but only post when a strong turning can happen.

It can take years to build a decent wave count, but the rally between my two arrows, is one of the best real world examples of an impulse, I have seen. Wave 1 subdivided very nicely with wave three also extending as it contains a perfect 1-2, 1-2 and a third 1-2 wave structure. The last 5th wave did the real heavy lifting as it extended dramatically.

The near perfect 5 wave sequence suggests that there are no leverage products involved, so these moves are organic and no slippage or other detrimental leveraging tools seem to be present. From my perspective, this is a very good thing. Is the dip down to $19 enough of a correction or is there a bit more to go down to the $15 price level?  Gaps are present, but if gaps appear under more volume than I will use them.

From the bottom arrow to the top arrow, there was over a 300% gain in just 5-6 months. I manage to catch most of a single stock for a 660% gain, but will look at buying in again with 3 other hemp related growers.  Some of the single marijuana stocks are moving like Cryptocurrecies have moved, which is a unique opportunity for investors with Canadian funds. Jumping on any bandwagon could be the end of a run, so as soon as a person buys in, it dramatically corrects.

It may take the rest of the month before the correction is finished, but it could end early and the bull market would resume without me.

I am also starting to track the Gold/HMMJ ratio and so far it has been fluctuating in a pretty crazy fashion. The bottom low was close to a 150:1 ratio with a top ratio touching 51:1. Today it sits at 62:1. I don’t have enough history just yet to make the Gold/HMMJ ratio useful, but over time the ratios should become  very useful.

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US Dollar Intraday Crash Update

The US dollar keeps on crashing, and it should continue for the foreseeable future.  Surprise rallies will be part of the landscape, but when we are in a big bear market then any rally will only be a temporary thing.  Gold has responded to the USD crash like it has done many times before and has broken well below the 91 price level, that I have talked about in my updates.

I have another couple of downside targets that I would like to see get retraced. One of them is the 89 price level with these futures charts, another price level that should get hit will be at about the 80 range. A falling US dollar is basically inflation rearing its ugly head, but that is what politicians have wanted for many years, with their 2% inflation rate.

Buying gold after it has already soared does not protect us from inflationary pressures, but this is what gold analysts keep telling us we should do.

They may just be starting to recognize the fact that the US dollar could be in a bear market, which makes them pretty slow in recognizing any trend reversals. When you are watching the evening news and two or 3 different talking heads mention how the US dollar is crashing, then chances are good the US dollar will reverse and soar.

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Mini SP500 New World Records!

I normally take a break on any US or Canadian holiday, but occasionally I will break that rule. Soon we will be starting in the third year of a single 5th wave in Intermediate degree. At this time the markets show no signs that they want to slow down, but reversals can happen coming as a complete surprise to the majority.

We can’t have our noses stuck in the intraday level as we always have to look at daily and weekly charts on a regular basis. At the monthly chart scale we are dealing with a vertical move, where we can barely see any of the corrections above. On faster moves we can’t see any corrections on the bigger scale. Extensions happen all the time as they are a fact we can’t deny. Just because we have a single tall 5th wave, doesn’t mean we are jumping into higher degree levels.

We are still in the running to a Cycle degree wave 3 top, so until that happens, I will remain extremely bearish.

Tomorrow will be a new moon date, which can produce amazing reversals, when they feel like it. It could still take until the end of the month for this to play out, but I look at mid week times as potential turnings as well. The longer and higher this goes, just means it has much deeper to fall when the next bear market arrives.

Crude oil may crash along with the stock market, so we have to be aware of that potential situation as well.

Today the Gold/SP500 ratio is still around 2:1,  which it has been for 3 months. When a ratio is at an extreme and it seems to be stuck there, then I look at it as a warning for a major double top in the Gold/Sp500 ratio. In the end, we want to use less gold to buy a single unit of the SP500, which is close to,  (.75:1) Not until we get close to this cheap ratio again will the markets become oversold again.

Here’s what could trigger a 30% stock-market melt-up, says investor Bill Miller – MarketWatch

The markets breaking all these record highs are starting to bore me to no end! 🙄  Enough already! It sounds like the market analysts are stuck on repeat, or they are getting creative in calling for another melt-up.  It’s amazing how they can call higher and higher bull market targets when they didn’t even see the bull market coming back in 2009.

The higher calls mean nothing in the big picture as nobody knows what the markets will correct down to once those targets have been hit. Nobody is saying, ” Oh BTW, once SP500 reaches 2800, then expect a correction to 700″! Identifying bull and bear markets “after” they have turned means nothing in the big picture as the herd is always late getting in and late getting out.

Forecasting big price moves means the fundamentals are going to change as well. This is why, “fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes”.

I’m sure that at the next bear market low, we will see dramatically different fundamental news come out, and I will be very surprised if we are not in a recession as well. I mean a recession, not a depression!  When all the analysts are in consensus agreement that a recession has arrived, it will be over. A new bull market will start again and eventually move 500%, not this boring 400% 5th wave move, we are presently in.

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