Monthly Archives: November 2017

S&P Midcap E-Mini Record High Review

Since the mid August bottom this mid cap cash, futures chart shows a bullish leg that moved vertical in the last few days. A vertical move and new record highs, is a clue that, at a minimum,  a correction is coming.  The million dollar question is how big of a correction, we should expect.  A Cycle degree crash is still a correction, even if it loses 80% of its value.  

It is the majority of analysts that will call it a huge bear market, but they will not find out until everybody parrots the same consensus opinion over and over. Until this chart takes out or slices the bottom trend line we will not know for sure that a big bearish phase is already in progress. 

Every decline I start with, I look for a set of 5 waves, because they are pointers to a new direction. I already have the idealized wave count up for a Cycle degree correction, and most markets may stop well before any 2009 lows. If you are still super bearish by that time, then markets will leave you in the dust, as the solar cycle #25 bull market starts. 

Nothing that hasn’t happened before, as 2009 is a perfect example what the upswing of solar cycles can do. 1932 was also the bottom of a solar cycle, so it has happened many times before.  

We can still have a full 3 years for this mythical correction to play out, and investors will be fleeing the markets in fear. I’m sure the markets will be in an over-sold condition long before any major correction finishes. 

When the conditions are right then insiders and the seasoned contrarians will be the main buyers. Insider buying of public companies must be reported, so this is not some secret information available to just a few people. 

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Shooting For The Moon: Min DJIA Melt-Up!

This vertical move which started at the mid November lows works best as a diagonal move, as I have too many overlapping waves at critical places.   Today we are finishing another vertical move, after which I expect one of two things to happen. One is a bull market correction, with limited downside, but the other is the start of a much bigger correction with no real support.

At a minimum the DJIA should slice my bottom trend line before I get too excited as violent reversals seems to be the norm in the stock markets.  Usually a 5 wave sequence has to build heading down as they point the way of any new trend. The big difference is the degree level, that we are expecting. Cycle degree, SC degree or GSC degree. My vision is all from a Cycle degree perspective as the rest of the world is in SC or GSC degree. Three completely different worlds and only one can be right!      

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Mini SP500 Vertical Spike Update.

At the rate the SP500 is soaring we will be in the stratosphere before too long.  Of course, investors will freeze to death long before this can ever happen.   The VIX hasn’t crashed, but has joined the SP500 for this rally. If the bears attack stocks again, then the VIX could keep right on going north for much longer. 

When a new vertical high is forming, I look for another potential reversal to be setting up.  A bull market correction would have its downside limit, but must establish a low, from which another leg up would have to develop.  Just incase a much bigger degree correction is lurking inside the crystal ball, all the support prices we can invent, will never hold.  

At a minimum a good sizable correction will go “off” the charts heading south not north. 

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Silver Crash Daily Chart Update

Silver only has pennies to go before it breaks my bullish wave count. The next best wave pattern is that another zigzag is forming, but we still need a bit longer C5 wave length, to make a better fit.  I sure don’t rule out any running type of a move as well, so in the short term silver can remain volatile. 

What must not happen in silver, is that the July 2017 bottom also gets completely retraced. If this happened then the $14.60 price level could get hit and the Intermediate degree “B” wave must also be moved.  

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Bitcoin Crashes The Nasdaq On November, 29,2017

 

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At $10,000 I was very bearish on Bitcoin. Bitcoin blew past $10,000, and peaked at about $11,000 before Bitcoin made a dramatic reversal.  Block Chain servers were overloaded and many trades could not be executed. 

Bitcoin plunges $2000 after wild record ride past $11000 – bitcoinmining.shop

Biggest Crypto Exchanges Hit by Delays With Demand Surging – Bloomberg

Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: A Rally, a Rout and Outages on the Exchanges – Bloomberg

“Demand” surge?? It’s more like being locked out and not able to execute any orders at all. I will not spend the time keeping any wave count on Bitcoin, as it moves extremely fast. It is valuable in that Bitcoin is faster, more like running in “Fast forward”  You can bet robots and algorithms had a lot to do with this crash, even though they scan for robots on many sites. 

Today’s low in Bitcoin was close to $9000,  and I’m sure more losses are to come as the rallies in Bitcoin remain bearish. Billions of Bitcoin dollars went up in smoke, fleecing the Millennials in the process.

 

At the “exact” same time that Bitcoin imploded on November, 29, 2017 the Nasdaq imploded as well. The other indices ignored the Bitcoin and Nasdaq crash and they continued to soar while the Nasdaq was trying to find its footing. The tech sector has the most to lose if the Bitcoin world or Cryptomania can’t mine Bitcoins anymore. 

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Gold Intraday Crash Review

Gold’s correction started out very choppy so that gives a certain amount of confidence that only a correction is taking place. The leading pattern was a diagonal, and we are now on the invisible bottom trend line as I post. Silver also took a bit hit today and I can understand it if the majority, still see stocks as a bullish investment.  Many think Bitcoin is an investment as nobody in their right mind can use something that swings as wild as Bitcoin does. 

This morning it took 8.75 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin after which it proceeded to crash about $1800.  Bitcoin is “Not Gold” and it will never replace gold, even though they show you pretty golden Bitcoins,  as a brainwashing technique.  

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Nasdaq Intraday Crash update

Still having chart data problems, but sometimes a chart will show up. In this case it was the Nasdaq as it took the biggest decline when compared to others.  Any previous low can supply temporary support, but it will not tell you if temporary support is just a simple correction in a bull market. 

Even though this was a great move down, we need more evidence that any new trend is sustainable. In other words the Nasdaq has to fall off the cliff, and disappear below all October lows.  We need this just to see if we can establish some decent set of impulse waves. When the markets want to go higher, then sideways choppy patterns should start to happen.  In the end, it’s all about where we start our wave counts from and our perception of what an idealized chart should look like. 

The younger speculators have no clue on what’s coming, as many think this is a generational bull market that will never end.  When players that speculate with Bitcoin are 34 years and younger, why would any investor want to sell the Nasdaq at record highs?

Bull market peaks are the breeding grounds for bear markets, and it matters little what or if,  any fundamental news turns out to be the trigger. 

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SPY ETF Review

Both  chart servers I use,  has problems sending out chart data this morning.  In the mean time I will work from my Bigcharts source.

Any extreme vertical move from yesterday does not show up as well. Due to yet another extension, I started to work on the 2016-2017 wave count again using a single diagonal instead.  Early this morning the market saw a reversal that is impossible to see with these charts. The question will be if it is a temporary blip or if there is something more solid to it.  The Nasdaq took a swan dive this morning as well, so it’s not just one index that moved down. 

I have not been tracking any Gold/SPY ratios, but this morning it was 4.87:1 at our present peak. This ratio should expand as the market progresses into a bear market. 

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Gold Intraday Top Review

Since the October low, gold has been in a rally, but I must admit gold has been in one “ugly” rally. Pure impulse waves are virtually non existent, except for very small degree runs.   Another new move to the upside confirmed that the deep crash on the 18th was just a correction.

Gold ended with a spike to the upside at my Subninuette “A” wave peak and gold looks like it has started into another correction.   Another “C” could develop so gold is not dead just yet.  We have to stay open minded as and correction could go much deeper than we might be expecting.  At $1310, gold could form a small double top, as a higher degree wave 1 in Minor degree. 

I will have to adjust my degree levels and wave counts, but at this time I have nothing better to offer. The worst case scenario is, if our present rally is just a “B” wave rally. This could send gold crashing to the $1220 price level. 

Any stock decline could help gold become a safe-haven asset, as any US dollar decline has not helped gold all that much. 

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Bitcoin Mania Hitting $10,000!

I will not keep a wave count with Bitcoin as any mania will just keep crushing  any wave count that we can come up with.  Investing in Bitcoins is a myth as all Bitcoin is, is another vehicle for speculation.  It is used by crooks as blackmail payment, and Bitcoin has been robbed so many times that it boggles the mind.  Hacking Bitcoin seems to be a favorite pastime. If it goes to $10,000 or $20,000 is irrelevant as massive price swings, makes it very unstable for any other use. 

This Bitcoin thing is in a “Mania”  alright,  and the charts below compare Bitcoin to other manias that we’ve had. 

 

 

The Tulip Mania is still the king of bubbles, with the Bitcoin running second.  I disagree with the “Tulipomania” time period as 1634-1637 is a more consistent time period.

 

Crypto Wallet Company Faces More Problems After July Hack – Bloomberg

BitPay Hacked, 5 000 Bitcoins Stolen – CryptoCoinsNews

Bitcoin Mania: The Bitcoin Bubble

 

 

 

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Mini SP500 Intraday Record High: Shooting For The Moon!

Once again the markets have pushed to a new record high this morning, peaking at about 2609 so far. 2610 could be within reach after which I expect another correction.  We need a much bigger correction than what we’ve been getting. We need a correction so big, so there is no hope of any recovery in 2017. At a minimum, we need the markets to retrace back down and below, the early November low. This might be far enough where any wild counter rally will no longer break new highs. 

The Gold/SP500 ratio has not changed that much, and it has been hovering around the 2:1 ratio for most of November. It seems this extreme ratio has been hitting this  2:1 brick wall, which is what I would like to see with other ratios when they become due as well.

The (.75:1)  ratio makes the SP500 extremely cheap, which means it takes less than an ounce of gold to buy one unit of the SP500. 

The return to “cheap” stocks will not happen overnight, as we have to be prepared for the long haul, until 2021 if need be. 

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Mini Nasdaq 100 Intraday Quadruple Record High

Since my last update, the Nasdaq managed to push higher, but only by about 11 points. 6425 seems to be the number to beat at this time.  We also have a very small degree quadruple top, which can work like a small diagonal 5th wave., or another ending diagonal.

On other indices, this exact same impulse did not happen, and a diagonal wave must be used. This has happened many times before, but at this small scale nobody will notice or even care. 

What it can mean is another potential correction is coming, but how big of a correction is uncertain at this time.  This market has dipped many times before, so we need a substantial correction, for the markets to not have enough time to make another record high in 2017. 

That point of no return may be at the 6000 price level, which is off the charts above.   The previous little 4th wave just will not be deep enough to make a difference. 

The SP500 is pushing higher, so it would not surprise me if the Nasdaq added on another record peak. 

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The VIX Intraday Spike Review

With this bar type setting the VIX produced a sharp spike to the downside. I like to see this happen towards the end of a long decline, but this spike was computer generated as it corresponded with Black Friday as well.  The spike back up, still has a small gap in it which should still get closed off.

This spike does “not” show up when I switch to a line type of a chart. Technically speaking the VIX would still have to drop to the $9.00 price level before all the gaps are closed off.

There are a few gaps still open well above todays prices so these open gaps work like a magnet, drawing prices to them.

That $8.60 bottom represents a huge VIX bear trap, which is the opposite to the SP500 bull trap!

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Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Review

This morning the Mini SP500 December contract peaked at 2605 before it started to turn down again.  We still could get a wild correction followed by yet another push for a record high. I would like to see the SP500 drop well below the 2556 price level before this bull market shows it has ended. Any previous low can also supply support for the short term, but at the same time every new record high can be the last record high.

We have 4 tradings days left before month’s end so that still leaves lots of time for this market to fool us in the short term.  The Gold/SP500 ratio is at 2:1  which it has hit several times in the last couple of months already.  A ratio of (. 75:1) would be in the extreme cheap range, so we have a long way to go before that ever happens.

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Crude Oil Intraday Correction And the Gold/Oil Ratio!

This morning crude oil stop at $59 before it started a small correction. Small corrections can turn into bigger corrections, and with such a choppy base we can get wild corrections that can go deeper than expected. Even then it does not mean that this oil bull market is finished.

The crude oil prices have seemed to converge closer together across the futures contracts, which is a good thing as it helps with the Gold/Oil ratio.   The $60-$62 price range is also stiff resistance, but if gold still has a few more legs to go then this $60 barrier will get sliced in two. 

$55 would be a nice previous turning point that might supply support, but then the bottom trend line may also help with support. 

I mentioned that the Gold/Oil ratio was also compressing and $59 represented a 22:1 ratio.  This ratio may give us a correction, but it sure is not close to any extreme, or the end of the oil bull market.  Markets come to an end when they are pointing up, not when they are pointing down, which is the opposite of what the public sees. 

Jumping on the bandwagon when markets are going vertical displays the FOMO syndrome perfectly. (Fear Of Missing Out) At the Gold/Oil ratio of 22.35:1 this morning it shows that the ratio has started to expand a bit again.  At this time 17:1 is still a target for the future, but other indicators must also come in. One of my favorite indicators is that the consensus forecasts for oil will start to use $200 crude oil again.   They have been trying for $200 for over 8 years, but crude oil fooled all the expert forecasters and proceeded to crash to $34.

 Not only did this happen once but again in late 2015  when crude oil crashed to $28 producing yet another world oil glut. With their infinite, consensus forecasting abilities, the experts were calling for $10 oil. Oil couldn’t care less about any forecast and proceeded to turn up to our present high. 

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Russell 2000 2016-2017 Record High Review

If we go back into ancient history like early 2016 the markets all bottomed about the same time. The anticipated bullish phase that developed after the 2016 bottom, was another choppy bull market, which are typically found in diagonal 5th waves.  The entire 2017 sideways move was most likely a choppy 4th wave correction that borders on the line of a mini triangle. Trend lines do not work with this 5th wave as they offered no special insight when I did try them. 

The Russell 2000 is also approaching a potential wave 3 in Cycle degree. So far it has taken about 21 months to get to our present highs and should be ready for another correction. 

All the Perma bulls will get hit hard if they try to buy on the dips. When they talk about buying the dips, their brain is still wired into the bull market mentality.  Bull markets end under extreme optimism, they don’t end under extreme pessimism.  Our present Gold/Russell 2000 ratio has increased a bit more since Sept, and is presently at about 1.17:1  This ratio does not move as much as 1.06 is the extreme side of being cheap. 

This entire 5th wave should get completely retraced, and we will see what type of a pattern decline we have by then. At the very least, we need a correction below the August 2017 low. I’m sure the bears will be Hacking and Slashing all the way down, until all the stock bulls are dead! 

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Nasdaq 100 Intraday Keeps on Pushing Higher!

The Nasdaq soars to another record high. This latest bullish move started on the 15th of November, with the following rally developing as an impulse move. The Nasdaq reached 6414 and has now backed off a bit. Every new record high can also be followed by another correction. How deep any correction can go all depends how big of a degree we are ending at. Short term, anything can still happen, but long term I’m looking for a Cycle degree correction. Specifically a Cycle degree wave 4 correction,  with either a flat or a zigzag correction of one lesser degree. (Primary Degree) Technically speaking, it would be “One” move in Cycle degree, but three moves in Primary degree.

No Cycle degree triangle should develop as any major bearish move has to finish shortly after solar cycle #25 has started. There is not enough time, as 2021 could be a turning date for a very long bull market. In other words, what happen at the 2008-2009 bottom will happen again.  Some analysts feel we are going into a depression or that a 600 year bear market will develop. I doubt these Doom and Gloom predictions will ever materialize as the SC degree correction from 1929 to 1932, only took three years.

When  a Cycle degree correction only takes 3 years as well, I don’t consider it a big deal.

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Crude Oil Intraday Record Highs Review

 

Crude oil has been cranking up as many fundamentals continually conspired against any bearish calls. 

 WTI Prices Surge On Keystone Spill | OilPrice.com

This news is another example how unexpected events can change fundamental supply and demand numbers. With this surge crude oil has cleared the previous major high of $57.60 back in early 2017.  I’m using an intermediate degree as my base, followed by one crazy pattern that defies any great looking impulse. I’m sure I will have to adjust this wave count at a later date, but at this time we are approaching the peak of the top trend line for the third time. 

A correction should be coming even though bull markets end when the charts are pointing up, but not when they are pointing down. The Gold/Oil ratio has been compressing in the last few days at 22:1 but we need crude oil to compress much more before it becomes expensive again.  A rapid ratio compression move can be an early warning for a correction. This correction may be a bit bigger than what most bulls might expect at this time.  A very fast dip or “mini crash” usually means an “ABC” correction has just happened, which will follow with yet another leg up. 

The bottom trend line may give us a clue where any substantial oil correction can stop at, but a diagonal move sure can make any two trend lines obsolete very quickly. I’m not a fan of trend lines at the best of times as they are extremely subjective, and they have been abused to the point they are useless. 

Crude oil could just drop back down to the $55 price level and then start back up, so there is not just one number oil can turn on.  As I post, crude oil is still struggling to go higher, but oil could reverse just before closing time. 

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Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Review

From the bottom on the 15th of November, the Mini SP500 has started on another leg up which has now pushed the Mini SP500 to about 2603.  If this holds for the rest of the day I will be surprised, but every new record high the markets give us is followed by a correction.  We had a serious overlapping problem which killed the impulse idea, but it works as a diagonal at this time.  So far the DJIA has not followed through, and has a bit of catching up to do, while the Nasdaq seems to enjoy a pretty good  looking impulse. The VIX stopped at $9.40 so far, with a big GAP still left open.

All those smart investors that just love to buy high see no downside risk in the world today. Some crazy news story can send the crowd into a mini panic which we’ve seen many times before.  How long these gyrations can keep happening, is always uncertain, but the end of the month can always prove interesting. 

In the big scope of things this market will take a big hit, and if it goes fast or slow is irrelevant at this time. Just a little dip is not enough to do the trick, so at a minimum the markets need to retrace all  previous 4th waves of smaller degrees. When it stops closest to the previous 4th wave in Primary degree, then a real bottom may start to form. The big bears think that the DJIA will fall to 5000, which would give us the 1996 solar cycle base.  If markets retrace to the 1996 prices, then this would put the SP500 at 500-550. 

Markets are born to fool everyone so if the SP500 stopped between 700-800 it would not surprise me at all.  When this bearish scenario, even gets close, stocks will already be oversold, yet the only people buying would be the contrarian insiders. 

It takes two gold ounces to buy one unit of the SP500, which is on the extreme expensive side, which has not changed that much in the last week or so. 

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Gold, Intraday Choppy Rally Update

Since last months low, gold has attempted to make a comeback. The problem I have with this rally is the severe overlapping wave structures. Short term it leaves too many options as this could just end up being a bearish counter rally.  A diagonal wave 1 would be nice and we would get no more new lows in the short term. The traditional gold buying from India has evaporated in the last few years, which has at times pushed gold into a bull market at the end of November. 

I made some changes at the September top, but it is not secure by any stretch of the imagination.  I calculated a few Gold/ETF ratios and there is nothing to suggest that gold stocks are in the expensive range. When gold stock ratios compress much more, and gold stock insider selling becomes public knowledge, then it would be time to follow these contrarians and do the same thing.  

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US Dollar Intraday Decline Update

I believe that September bottom is part of an expanded pattern followed by an impulse “C” wave bull market. The wave count from the October bottom could only fit into a diagonal 5th wave, ending with a very choppy high this month.  In the last day or so, the US dollar started another decline which could produce a H&S downside breakout situation.  If the US dollar makes another fast move down, then the 92.800 and 91.800 price level could find support for another “ABC” crash.

Instead of a 4th wave top, it could be an “A” wave top just as easily.  The best thing that can happen is that the US dollar creates a new record bear market low, which would help to confirm any expanded pattern that I do have.  Gold, and gold stock ETFs, should benefit as the US dollar returns to its bearish phase.

I started the new decline with a small degree level, which would extend any 5th wave decline. US Thanksgiving is tomorrow, so there will be no regular updates at that time. Now if only stocks started another decline, then this would also add motivation to run to gold for safety.

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DJIA 2009-2017 Bull Market Update.

 

This is the March 2018 contract at this time, which we will be going to when the December contracts stop trading. I stretched this wave count a bit, but it can still be adjusted at a few other positions. The most important wave count is always the 4th wave and in this case the 4th wave is in Intermediate degree.  The 5th wave in intermediate degree fell apart as an impulse, but another diagonal must be considered. One single zigzag to a new record high would work, but then the entire bull market that started in 2009 must also be a diagonal. 

The 4th wave in intermediate degree has not been moved and at this time, it is still safe at its present location. We already have doom and gloom forecasters, and we will get many more,  when this market gets serious in correcting. Many will get shocked, when the market dips lower than expected. At 21,000 the DJIA will be stepping outside the 2016-2017 trend line, which may barely give us a Minor degree correction, never mind a Cycle degree correction.

There is nobody that knows for sure what degree of a bear market we will get, and at what price level it will finish at!  I have been saying that we could turn at 7000,  while another popular number is DJIA 5000, plus a depression thrown in to crank up the fear factor.  I am very confident that when it comes down to the wire, solar cycle #25 will trash “all” those bearish price forecasts, as the market soars in another 8 year bull market. Markets will always leave the majority behind, as they will be ill prepared when they constantly waste time, figuring how much lower the markets will go. 

When we use the Gold/DJIA ratio it tells us that as of today it takes 18.3 gold ounces to buy just one unit of the DOW.  This is one of the most expensive Gold Ratio readings I have calculated in the last year or so.

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Mini SP500 New World Record High!

Any bearish wave count I had, didn’t last very long. From the November bottom and  then followed by a 4th wave crash, created an overlapping pattern that technically would not be an impulse. In this case I will use it for a short period of time and see if a few more wild moves, turns this last run to new highs, into a diagonal wave.  The Nasdaq broke the diagonal pattern and produced a nice impulse so far. 

Old record highs have been left in the dust on most of the key indices that I follow, but we have to keep an open mind that we could be topping at another wave 3 peak. At these intraday levels, the markets are moving violently in both directions. To keep the bears piss off, this market could wobble around like this for a long, or even last out the entire year!  

After every record high, the markets will at least produce another correction, but we have to wait and see how deep any correction will go. 

Markets love even numbers so the 2600 price level would fit the bill perfectly.  What is not so obvious is that 2584 is an even Fibonacci number and if we count backwards, a 61% decline from 2584 will get us the next even Fibonacci  number of 1597. (1600) Even that number barely comes close to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, so a Cycle degree correction would have to fall much deeper. Any 987 (1000) price level would certainly fulfil part of the Cycle degree retracement requirement, as it would also retrace to 2011 market lows.  

The VIX has also crashed, and is getting very close to closing off the lowest price gap. The VIX doesn’t have to close this gap, it just would be nice to see it closed off before the VIX cranks up again.

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Gold Intraday Crash Review

Since the October bottom gold started back into a rally, (sort of). This rally was so choppy that there was no way I could count any clean impulse waves, except for a few very small 5 wave moves.  The invisible top trend line touched many peaks before gold started to crash  last night.  The chance that this is a diagonal first wave can still handle some downside,  but gold must not break to new lows for this work. We could end up with a double bottom or even a bit lower, but then the entire decline can work as a flat.

Flats have a real chance of pushing the next leg up dramatically, which could take the rest of the week to play out. The Thanksgiving Day holiday is this Thursday,  and I usually plan no updates during many of the holidays.  All this looks very bearish, and in the short term gold may just keep showing us bearish moves that we don’t like, but in the long run any gold bullish world is still to come. 

I’m sure gold is displaying an inverse relationship with the general stock markets, but once they head down, the run to safety can happen. The US dollar just pushed to another new high this morning, so that alone could’ve been the cause of gold crashing. These types of crashes are not really a concern, as in a bull market, they are just part of corrections.  The majority cannot tell the difference, as they only care if something goes up or down. 

The $1375 gold  price level has not been achieved and if any “C” wave bull market is still to come,  then this $1375 price level must get retraced by a wide margin.

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VIX Intraday Gap Review.

The VIX cash contract has been heading down again, with a certain urgency to it.   Once we have a good look we can see that there are a few gaps that can throw a monkey wrench into the bullish and bearish scenarios of the VIX.   The first gap down at the bottom is still open, while we also have two gaps still open above present prices. Which set of open gaps is going to get closed off first? 

We can see a huge single spike to the upside, which can remain as the spike to beat, but it may get matched with an equally long spike to the downside.  I would love to see the opening gap in November get closed off, before the then next rally of fear,  starts to take off again.  Even if it doesn’t get closed off  we could get a H&S type setup as well. 

We also have a big open gap at the $23 price level so long term, any bullish run with the VIX, means a bearish run in stocks. 

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Mini SP500 Intraday Gyrations Update.

At this time it seems that the peak of November the 9th is still holding. How much longer that peak, can claim to be the last high, is up for debate.   I start with small  degree levels and at this level, moves like this can seem like mountains and deep canyons.   I can count out a zigzag decline, but that could be the start of a diagonal run as well.  Even the rally from last week’s bottom can still develop into a diagonal 5 waves, but that would mean the top trend line will get sliced in two.  The bearish option would slice the bottom trend line in two, but even that would not be good enough.

Eventually any bigger bearish move would have to trash every conceivable support price level.  The 2015 bottom would have to be the bare minimum that this market must retrace back down to. It will never happen in one day, as there are many 7% circuit breakers in many of the stock asset classes. In other words, they will just shut down the exchanges, giving any  wild market a chance to take a few deep breaths.

The SP500 is still pushing higher as I post, so anything can still happen. It may take the rest of the week for this to play out. Thursday the 23rd will be the US Thanksgiving Day, and there will be no postings during that time.

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Nasdaq 2000-2017 Alternate Elliott Wave Count Review!

The big wave pattern of the Nasdaq has always been an issue from my perspective.  One of the main reasons is the great looking impulse that formed during the 2000-2002 decline. This single looking 5 wave impulse decline just does not fit very well, as it makes the 5 waves of a C5 pattern extremely short. (Running zigzag)  From the 2007 top to the 2009 bottom would have to be 5 waves in Minor degree.

 Any running zigzag breaks all descriptions of what a zigzag should look like. They should by all accounts, travel well below  the “A” wave bottom, which it never even came close to doing in 2009. 

Another pattern I show that I have, also does not fit well and that is I have the 2002 to 2007 rally as another zigzag. A small zigzag correcting a big zigzag, is extremely rare and I rarely count them out this way.  Just by moving the positions from 2002 to 2007 around, I can easily produce a running flat in a 4th wave position. 

Any bottom trend line is just a rough guide as a potential Cycle degree 4th wave decline could slice through this trend line with ease. 

In the long run the 2009 bottom still ends up as a 4th wave in Primary degree, after which 5 waves in Intermediate degree must follow. Any Cycle degree 4th wave correction once completed, would have to produce 5 waves up in Primary degree. It would still take Cycle degree wave 4 until 2020 or so to complete, so things should get very interesting in the next 2-3 years.  Solar cycle #25 is also due to start at the 2021 time period, so all bearish opinions and moods will be crushed at that time. 

This wave count is just an alternate wave count, as I prefer the 2000 peak as a potential expanded “B” wave top.  That 2000-2002 decline also shows what can happen when markets get repelled by the solar cycles. In the case of the 2000 peak, it was solar cycle #23 that killed the stock market. In 2014 the peak of sc#24 only produced a market correction.  I will bet that very few market analysts can tell you from memory, what caused the 2014-2015 correction. 

Chances are good I will use this wave count only for a very short time, as I may create my original expanded pattern again with a bit more detail.

All stock indices point towards a Cycle degree wave 3 top, but there still may be a bit of fooling around as only small degree bearish patterns may still be forming.

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Crude Oil Intraday Rally Update

Crude oil did not decline any further, but actually stop right at the Fibonacci $55 price level and has now proceeded north again. Back in late August 2017, crude oil stopped at the $47 price level, which is also a Fibonacci ratio, (34×1.382). There is so much turmoil in the world crude oil market, which can screw up any fundamental reason for oil to rise.  One minute they call for a return of the crude oil bear market, and next they call for $60 oil.  I would rather see oil above $89 some time in the future, but the Gold/Oil ratio would have to help confirm it. 

Today the Gold/Oil ratio dropped below 23:1 which only happened a few times in early 2017.   Oil is getting a bit more expensive when compared to gold, but still well below any long term overbought condition. If the speed of the ratio compression picks up, then we may be getting closer to a much bigger correction. The last thing I want to do is call an end to this bull market, before it’s ready to do so. Oil may still have to make a much bigger vertical move, before any end is near, 

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US Dollar Intraday Decline Update.

For now I put my 4th wave in Minor degree back up, for now. The decline sure has diagonal parts to it so that helps to confirm that a potential 5th wave decline is in progress. I do have an alternate wave count for the entire bullish US dollar move, but that is still too early to comment on.  Once we get closer to the 92 price level, the alternate pattern may  clear up some more.   Our present USD rally  has already a small spike in it, but a mini double top would be a better fit. From this wave 2 rally, the next decline should be another zigzag type of a move.

There is nothing that blocks the US dollar from going much higher as “C” waves can do some wild and incredible things. Gold has been sluggish in its rally, but that can be irrelevant when a diagonal bullish phase is in effect. At this time,  a big bearish move is still in the cards, as the 2016 top can be a “D” wave in Primary Degree.   That potential “D” wave top would give the US dollar a full 8 year bear market rally.

I keep my options open as the entire 31 year US dollar decline from the 1985 peak, is just a giant triangle.

 

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Nasdaq Intraday Correction Update

So far the Nasdaq  correction seems to be happening, or lets say anticipated correction. Its not a correction until the Nasdaq pushes higher one more time. This may happen by mid week.  Of course, if the 3 wave rally is all that we are going to get, then a triangle “D” wave could still play out.  I will keep this short as there is not that much I can add until this short term move gets cleared up. 

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