Monthly Archives: August 2017

Russell 2000 Intraday Rocket Ride Update.

I guess there was more rocket fuel left, giving the extra push higher than anticipated.  This rally is bigger physically,  than all the other counter rallies which gives me the confidence to bump up my degree levels by 1.  If this wave 2 scenario is reasonably accurate, then the 1350 price level will get completely retraced, and then left in the dust, as the next leg down in a bear market revels itself.  If we are close, then this could take until October or late November before we hit another strong bottom.

I’m looking for the initial zigzag in a potential Cycle degree flat where I need two sets of 5 wave runs. They can both be diagonal, but they usually alternate between a simple 5 waves and or a set of complex waves, as long as there is some alternation I will use it in a zigzag. The next leg down does not have to be another zigzag, but a diagonal set of 5 waves would also work. I keep both versions as potential patterns and use them over and over, as the only thing that changes is the degree.

At the last two major bottoms the Russell 2000 is building a huge base that will provide a bottom for the next 200 years or more. The impending Cycle degree 4th wave bottom, will be the third set of 4th wave bottoms with each 4th wave bottom cranking up by one degree level. At major tops each wave 3 must also notch up by one degree level, which makes the 2029 time period a potential SC degree wave 3 top.

Hurricane Harvey is starting to die down, but hurricane Irma is starting to form in the Atlantic. Yes, it seems that hurricanes forming “during” hurricane season,  is  “unprecedented” to the global warming alarmists. Catchwords like “catastrophic” are also constantly used, which is part of the brainwashing tools used by the fear mongers.

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S&P 500 Midcap Intraday Rally Update.

This Midcap chart has also tried blasting off to the moon, pushing the index further than I wanted to see. This is not the start of some impulse wave which would soar to new record highs, but it has far too many overlapping wave structures. The “C” wave bullish phase is very typical with the big difference being the degree  level that we are dealing with.

This rally is getting into the previous high, but can go above the 4th wave if need be. To confirm that this rally is just a bearish rally,  the Midcaps have to crush that 1685 price level, by a wide margin. Another zigzag would work just fine, helping to keep this index as a leading indicator. The VIX is headed to $10.50 reflecting the sudden mood of complacency. When investors become complacent again, you know the markets are getting ready to deal a blow to the  bulls egos again. 

Once a decline becomes more obvious to the majority, then we could see the pace of any decline pick up and waves starting to smooth out again. 

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E-Mini SP500 Intraday Rally Review: Riding The Rocket

The markets have made another attempt to score brownie points, making the bullish case. We must be in La La Land as investor bliss, keeps the emotional trader in the game. Of course violent reversals seem to be the norm, not the exception. The markets could still record a new all time record high, but it may be time for the markets to start heading south again.  Technically, we still have some upside room left, but that the room to move is starting to shrink fast. 

This little potential wave 2 has the same basic structure as oil, but the SP500 is not expanded.  At the 2420 price level, we had a triple bottom, which produced the base that this “C” wave phase did bounce from. 

To confirm this move as a bearish rally, all the SP500 needs to do is crash below 2420 next month.  A zigzag down and then another zigzag up can work well in a diagonal move. This whole structure could end up as a wave 1 in Minor degree, but by the time it gets there, the bulls will be shaking in their boots if they should panic and get out. Of course, as soon as that happens the market will rally and disappoint all those that just got out. 

Markets will always act in such a way where the majority can’t win in this investment game, just like everybody can’t win playing Keno all the time. Yes, you guessed it, I am a big Keno fan. :-D.

Stocks are still pushing a bit higher so it will start to become critical in the amount of upside room we still have. Technically, we can see a 99.99% retracement but hopefully it will not come to that.

There will be no posting on Monday and have to deal with a potential loss of all my free futures charts from my provider.  I have another provider to go with,  but I  will not use them until I have to.

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WTI Intraday Bearish Mood Review

Oil has now fallen further than what I would like to see. I have been staring at the blank crude oil daily chart to see if there is a better fit. All my wave counts that I had in Minor degree, are now bumped up one degree.   I have tried this before so basically I’m using a wave count from inventory with a few updated adjustments.   It was that secondary top, that I now have to call it a truncated (shortened)  5th wave of a diagonal. That short top is a potential 4th wave top in Minute degree which leaves us with a potential decline to new bear market lows. 

I do have a set of nice 5 waves going down, followed by a violent rally that sure could work as a zigzag ending at an “A” wave in Subminuette degree. Down from that “A” wave, we now are faced with another low. At this time the chances are good that an expanded zigzag has formed, from which oil could blast upwards traveling well above the “A”wave peak. Since this looks like a 3-3-5 we could end up at a “B” wave top  followed by another set of 5 waves down. 

It may all be wishful thinking, but moves like this happen many times. At $43-$41 oil would come up to serious support again as it completes another zigzag.  It sounds like an ugly picture, but it should be shorter term only. Obviously, Hurricane Harvey had a huge impact with many of the refineries shut down and unable to open. We see the huge spike in gasoline futures as those inventories plunge. Have no fear, Europe is all geared up to send refined products to the USA. Mexico gets its gasoline from the USA, so they will feel the pinch as well. The US is not only an importer of oil, but it sells a lot back to other countries that need the light sweet crude to mix with other heavy crude oils.  There is a lot of turmoil in the world as oil production has dropped due to fires, bombs, hurricanes and just plain bad management. All this could suck down inventories very low, and one day the herd wakes up to this,  and suddenly we have a shortage. 

The Gold/Oil ratio became a bit more expensive this time at about 26:1. It’s still well within the average range of being cheap. If and when we consistently start to push closer to 17:1 or so, then we may have to take another hard look at how our wave count is looking, at that time. 

Oil may hold at $46.60 in the short term, but the entire wave count could fail and continue heading south.  Any anticipated rally should happen sooner than later, as there is not that much room left to wiggling around. 

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Mini Nasdaq 100 Intraday Rally Update

The Nasdaq at the intraday scale has also soared. A few of the big tech names are the elephants in the room, propped up by anticipating iPhone 8 sales. What very few people pay attention to is the amount of insider selling that has happened in May 2017. Insiders are long gone out of this market as only the emotional traders remain thinking that fundamentals matter.  You will never hear about Apple insiders buying their own stocks in anticipation of the iPhone 8 sales. Tech is in a bubble and those participating in the bubble, do not think they are actually in a bubble. 

At this time there may be a truncated pattern that still belongs to the bullish side. This is where I started my count from but may only be a temporary solution if the Nasdaq soars to new record highs. End of the month, with the jobs report coming out anything could increase the violent reactions of the markets. 

The SP500 has also pushed a bit higher this morning as well.  Trend lines are not going to help at this intraday scale, as the only thing that has to happen is that the July 27th peak holds. I anticipate a Cycle degree corrective decline with 3 waves in Primary degree. With a big zigzag no expanded top should happen, and in a flat only the Primary degree “B” wave top can be the expanded part. 

Any big bearish cycle has to get close to the end, by the time solar cycle #25 has started to poke its spots out the northern part of the sun.  Before that happens, markets can experience dramatic crashes, like what happened in 20o8. I’m sure we will get an economic recession from the next decline, but it will not be a depression.

We still have a few years before the public may see a bear market and once they do, then chances are good that the bear market will be ending.  

 

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E-Mini DJIA Intraday Potential Rally Reversal

The markets had a great run in the last few days, but are we running out of gas?  This DJIA created a great spike, but has now already turned down.  We can argue all we want about this being the start of very bullish 1-2 wave, and if this is true, then this market has a long way to soar before the next big correction.  It is also a great looking inverted zigzag, which puts it on the bearish side as a potential wave 2 rally in Minute degree. Other indices may still add some more upside, which could take a few more days. 

In the end it is a do or die situation, where the markets have to show us what side they are on. The last high was about August the 8th, which to many is just the start of another correction, not the start of a huge bear market. To confirm that a bigger bearish phase has already started, the markets need to establish lower lows and or lower highs as we progress.  Hopefully this will become more clear,  this week or maybe by the end of  next week. 

It takes nothing to spook the bullish herd as the markets digest the aftermath of hurricane Harvey. It is the time when politicians must do the right things, and not just flap off at the mouth. 

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Russell 2000 Intraday Bullish Update


The Russell 2000 decline didn’t last long before it charged right back up, delaying  any bearish move in the short term. There is a good chance that the markets are on a wave 2 rally in Minute degree which means the next decline will be longer and deeper than what we have had so far. Oh, what fun, we get to start with another 1-2 wave set.  We should get another zigzag from wave 2 to wave 3 in Minute degree, which eventually should terminate on the “A” wave in Intermediate degree.

I’m sure this bear market will throw surprises at us, but the Russell 200o has been leading the charge down, giving us an early warning if we choose to use it.

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Gold Stocks GDXJ Bull Market Update

Gold stocks with this mid sized gold mining companies have finally started to act in a bullish manner, even though they are lagging gold at this time.

Any lagging on the part of gold stocks is not a concern at this time because the Gold/Gdxj ratio is still on the cheap side at a bit under 40:1. Real cheap was 62:1 one which occurred way back in early 2016. There is lots of room for GDXJ to move to the upside so I don’t think gold stocks are ready to die. We have a higher low as well, which is the conventional description for a bullish phase.  I will not be a happy wave analyst until all gold stocks retrace the entire August 2016 top.  A new record high  would confirm this entire bearish phase.

When and if GDXJ gets closer to a 10:1 ratio then it will be time to look for a major top of this gold stock cycle. This may take until late 2018 to play out, but we have to be aware if this gold bull market will end sooner.  In time I may have to adjust my degree levels up by one degree, but that can always be adjusted at a later date.   It is virtually impossible to tell the difference between a “D” wave bull market and an impulse as both have the same bullish mood associated with them.  The only way we can know the difference is the choppy nature of the bullish run.

Some may be tempted to jump on the gold bandwagon now, but those emotional moves can backfire if gold stocks are ready for a correction. From the 2016 bottom to the mid 2016 top, gold stocks have gained close to 300%,  yet gold investors left that all on the table for the contrarians.  I doubt there is another 300%  gain from todays price, but, stranger things have known to happen.  The bullish move from the early 2016 base was not a vertical move, but “C” waves are  famous for going vertical when the party is ending.

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E-Mini DJIA Intraday Bullish Review: Gap Closed!

Stocks have made a wild reversal which I hoped it would, but the DJIA is still shy of breaking out past my “A” wave peak in Minuette degree. I made some adjustments where I now have 5 waves from the August record high. I have applied the Cycle degree wave 3 as a top, but I stress that it may not hold in the short term.  We are just off record highs that barely show up on the daily charts never mind the weekly charts and monthly charts. A Minor degree in this scale is still far too high of a degree level to look for.

If we are heading up to a potential wave 2 peak, then the next decline, should be another zigzag. It is the “B” wave that does not have to be zigzag, but I always like to see the zigzags in waves 1,3 and 5.  Any 5th wave can be a diagonal and I think it is important that diagonals are identified. From the 2009 bottom to our present 2017 top is a diagonal 5th wave or a bad impulse. If this 8 year bull market was a fake or just a big “B” wave, then it would not have been as smooth as it was. A “B” wave bull market would have far more violent moves than we know what to do with, and besides bear market rallies have never lasted this long.

In the long run if we don’t get the right degree and the right number, we will never catch a major bottom when it is staring us in the face.

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Gold Intraday Bullish Review And Impending Correction

Gold at this intraday level,  has been reaching for the heavens. On the daily chart gold is completing a vertical move, which cannot be maintained forever. Short term, gold can just make another small correction and still go higher. The bigger correction may be short and violent as well, with three potential support price levels drawn in. 

I dropped my working degree level down, as I think we are far from any Minute degree wave 3 on this run. Also diagoanls waves can throw a big monkey wrench into any wave count with that sideways 4th wave move being a “B” wave.  Of course the US dollar has been a big help as it recently crashed below that long anticipated 92 price level. 

When gold spikes like this, it gets the attention of the gold bulls still sitting on the sidelines. The late comers are also thinking about jumping on the gold bandwagon as they love to buy high because they don’t want to be left behind in a gold bull market.  Chasing a bull market can pay in the short term, but chances are good, a strong downward correction, will put them into the ‘red’ very quickly, if not stop them out.

Gold is reaching for that $1375 price high, and when gold breaks this 2016 high, this will confirm that for the 6 month decline during 2016 was just a correction. 

Even if we are just heading up to a bigger “D” wave, there is a lot of upside in gold still to come. 

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Mini DOW, Mini Crash Review

Violence in both ways is going to be the norm, not the exception. It could be that Hurricane Harvey is causing it all due to insurance companies paying out huge sums in the future.  Around the time of Harvey hitting Texas, they say that insurance companies are flush with money and will have no problem in paying claims. This remains to be seen if things get worse.

This stock market dropped so fast and steep that it would not surprise me if the market roared right back. A gap is open above, and it may need to get close off before markets resume their downward trend.  I can also work any impending rally into a wave 2 top.  Short term we would not want to see any new lows, but another high would do the trick. 

Virtually every stock market asset class I have wave counts on has produced an open gap, so from my perspective, this gap has meaning, it’s not a run of the mill gap.  Maybe the algorithms are running amok again, causing a mini flash crash. It’s not the end of the month yet, but the next few trading days may tell if we get a bounce or not. 

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S&P Midcap Intraday Update.

This Midcap chart decline, sure looks very similar to the Russell 2000 decline giving us two indices that seem to be leading the bear charge heading south.  This is a good thing as we have a few indices that the majority has been ignoring. When the media wake up and starts paying attention, then chances are good the Midcaps will be ready to rally. 

The next leg down should also be a single zigzag with alternating A5 and C5 wave structures. It could be a short decline, but we have to see how the pattern starts to unfold, before we jump to conclusions. 

At this time the Cycle degree wave 3 is up, but this may be temporary if I’m still far too early. If I’m way out in left field I assure you the markets will ‘force’ a major review, where I have to find a better fitting location. For over 15 years these markets have force reviews on all my early wave counts. Constantly going back in history to find what you missed, takes a long time to do, which many of the expert wave analysts have never done. 

For now I’m bearish until this rally is completely retraced, and a new record low is regurgitated by the parrots. This is harder to determine at this intraday scale, as this index is not on the radar screens in the first place. 

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Russell 2000 Intraday Bullish Phase Review

The Russell 2000 traveled a bit further than I thought, but this is pretty common when we are dealing with diagonal wave structures.  The Russell 2000 is close to my top trend line, that should provide resistance if the bigger bearish phase is still in effect. Technically, we should see another zigzag decline which could hit the bottom trend line in the future.   Some will try and count this as a 5 wave impulse sequence, but each set of waves is about even in physical length, which I don’t allow, or I find very suspicious.

I will keep the 2017 top as a Cycle degree, which can only be confirmed with a longer and much bigger bearish decline. The Russell 2000 and the Midcaps are still leading the way while all the other indices are hovering just off record highs. 

The media loves to report these new record highs, which stands to reason as all the bull markets are at ‘unprecedented’ record highs. I’m still looking for the leading zigzag to a Primary degree ‘A’ wave bottom, but we are still far away from seeing that happen. 

The first thing I think that needs to get completely retraced, is the wild ride after Donald Trump got elected. The 1210 price level should do that.  Ultimately the entire stock mania which started in 2011 from the 600 price level,  should also get retraced.  

For now we need this market to create and new bear market low, and maybe the crowd of bulls will start to wake up that something is amiss in this stock market La La Land. 

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Harvey And Gasoline Don’t Mix Well!

When it comes to analyzing some of these futures charts, it is very easy to manipulate the wave patterns. Turn it to a weekly chart, we get waves that don’t overlap, but then turn that same chart to a daily chart setting, we get completely different wave patterns.

Crude oil plunged this morning while gasoline futures ran to the upside. This sounds logical as Hurricane Harvey hit the core of  Americas gasoline production. 

Hurricane Harvey Has Knocked Out 25 Percent of Gulf Gas Production

The media have proclaimed that Harvey  is a ‘catastrophic’  or ‘unprecedented’ event.  These catch words are  used to keep brainwashing us that the end of the world is coming and not just a hurricane that happened once in 10 years. 

The problem with gasoline and distillate products is that they all need to be run through a refinery, which do get shut down for many reasons, including hurricanes and flooding. Many refineries took early steps to protect themselves, and I’m sure once the flooding subsides things will get back to normal. 

It just proves that the fundamentals of  any asset class can be very unstable and unpredictable. It was no surprise to the people that watched the hurricane coming on their satellite feeds.  Of course, this all helps in chopping down any inventories, which will show up  in prices at the pumps. 

The 2008 peak could be the Cycle degree top, followed by a potential zigzag that still needs to play out.  The 2014-2016 crash did not go as low as crude oil so that gives gasoline a completely different pattern.  Some of these rallies and plunges have lasted 2-3 years, so I don’t think this bull market is going to last much longer than the longest run we have had so far. 

Between $1.10 and $1.30 we have a huge gap that is still open. In a future bear market this big gap will still get closed, but for now this gap is not an issue. 

 

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bear Market Review

So far the US Dollar’s decline is pretty obvious, but what is never that obvious is to figure out exactly what type of a pattern we are going to get, and where we are within this pattern. 

At this time I will stick with the “D” wave top in Primary degree, but also a potential wave 3 top in Primary degree. They both have the same bullish mood, at record tops, but the “D” wave top will take us to new record lows, while a 4th wave decline will not.  Below the 89 price level the US dollar would be classified as a Diagonal 4th wave decline, but it still keeps the 4th wave scenario low on my list of probabilities.

92 is the first price level that has to get beat, in which we are not too far away. The decline in the last few days of last week, started out as a diagonal decline, which would slow down a bit due to the choppy nature of diagonal waves.  A good surprise would be that another  C5 wave from a zigzag has just started,  which would also push any short term support much lower. 

So far we have the makings of a classic Minor degree wave 3 extension with 2 back to back sets of 1-2 waves.

I looked over the USD COT report on Friday and the commercial traders still carry net short positions, but the spreads are shrinking and eventually the commercials will become net long. Until that happens this US dollar bear market is alive and well. 

Those that think that stocks are on some mythical permanent high, must also believe that the US dollar will still soar to new record highs. Well, the US Dollar has already been in a decline and stocks are on shaky ground, so this scenario is just a daydream. 

We would need a wave pattern that clearly shows us that a correction has taken place and after this “ABC” correction, the US dollar must soar to new record highs.  The US dollar does not have enough bears present to justify a major move to new record highs at this time. 

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VIX Intraday Gyrations Update

One thing we will always get are wild swings in both directions, which forces many of the simple impulse waves to overlap at critical points. The only way we have a chance to wave count the VIX, is to make sure we count the waves all as diagonal waves with only small runs of simple impulse waves. VIX is one world where diagonal waves rule with no exceptions.

Silver is another one of those diagonal asset classes which has persisted since the 1993 silver bottom. The above chart looks like another zigzag is forming, but a bit more downside can still happen. The VIX can hit $10 which takes us close to the previous bullish phase bottom. 

My starting Minute degree level may be a bit too high, but this can be adjusted on the fly if need be. In this case we should not see a new record low before the VIX cranks up again. 

Next Thursday will be the end of the month and several jobs reports will also come out by Friday. This could make for some wild moves so we should always keep that in mind. 

There is one small open gap above todays prices, so this will be the first price target that should get hit again. Many analysts got a real thrill when the VIX jumped 30% in one day, but that may not happen again for some time. Maybe it will jump 50-60% instead.  😉   Of course that may also be wishful thinking on my part. 

We have one small open gap at the $23 price level so that would be the next big price target I would like to see get hit! 

This may happen this year or even closer to the 1987, 30 year anniversary date.  Years ending with a 7 have been disasters for the stock markets in the past, so this year could also bring us some surprising results. 

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Mini DJIA Intraday Review: Bears Banished From The Markets!

From a big picture perspective, I believe trend lines have been used to a point where they end up having little meaning. Everyone is biased to some extent and just one line can make us think that a trend is real. At this time I’m using the same wave count dated from the July, 18 posting. 

As soon as the trend lines no longer fit between two parallel lines, then we have to look at it from a potential unfinished wave structure. From the August peak down to the August 21st bottom, coinciding with The Great American Eclipse, we have a very good looking regular flat.  A small zigzag, then a potential triangle “B” wave rally and then 5 waves down in Micro degree. 

This could be followed by another zigzag but this zigzag should push this market to a new record high. When will this torture end?  Even the threat of a nuclear war only temporary phases the markets. When I was growing up there were nuclear bombs going off all the time, which rarely phased the markets.

We may have to finish a “B” wave correction, but that can leave us with a “C” wave bullish phase to go. We still have a full 4 trading days left before the end of the month, so until this market starts to create obvious lower lows, I have to keep the bullish wave count alive for a little longer. 

If the power is still on the bullish side, then we will eventually run into the top trend line. Slice the top trend line, or slice the bottom trend line, which one will get hit first? 

There is one thing I like to mention and that is the pattern of a potential 4th wave decline. This pattern above is one version of the same pattern I will look for as a Cycle degree correction. The difference will be in the degree levels.  The Subminuette degree “B” wave I show is 5 degree levels smaller than what I need in a Primary degree “B” wave. 

When we switch this to a weekly chart, we can only see a little bump, so in the short term any bearish phase is not a done deal, just yet.  

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Russell 2000 Intraday Review: Slueth Of Bears Still Leading The Way!

10 Bizarre Names for a Group of Animals «TwistedSifter

The last time the Russell 2000 hit a record historic high was July 27th and it has declined ever since. It would take a bullish phase over a month to see a new record high, and that would only happen if the Russell 2000 was still its main bullish phase.

The big bullish scenario is getting harder and harder to justify as all the other indices would also have to push to new record highs. I jumped to a Minute degree diagonal move, but may have to move back down the degree list if things don’t progress like I think they should. I’m looking for the first parts of an Intermediate degree zigzag, where there usually are a large number of diagonal 5 waves sequences that develop.  

Another zigzag rally seems to be in progress which could be a 4th wave rally. This should be followed by another zigzag decline, for the 5th wave.  The VIX, ignores the Russell 2000, but this is a good thing. The public is being brainwashed by the mainstream media bullish news about the SP500, DJIA and the Nasdaq. Anything that works like a leading indicator is much better than a lagging indicator. Lagging indicators I ignore most of the time, as the crowd of analysts seems to love them. History has clearly shown me that when the fundamentals are ugly, then the markets will head the opposite way. In late 2008 the fundamental news was a complete horror show, yet the markets turned and then soar in the largest bull market since the depression. 

I have a few Gold/Russell 2000 ratios calculated with the July top about 1.15. It would take 1.15 gold ounces just to buy one unit of the Russell 2000. One record high I calculated was about 1.06.

The Russell 2000 was cheap when one ounce of gold could buy 2.63 units of the Russell. We want to get closer to that number at the next Cycle degree 4th wave bottom.

With the late 2002 bottom we are building a huge base of 4th wave bottoms, which would be very bullish in the long run.  Not only do the wave counts have to unfold in a sequence, the sequence of 4th wave bottoms also has to count out correctly. 

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Crude Oil Intraday Crash Review

Crude oil has been very uncooperative as it refuses to act out the script I had started.  Any good impulse I had, died as soon as the critical waves started to overlap. If crude oil does stop short of going to a new low, then another diagonal set of waves could happen. The worst case scenario would be that the late July peak is a potential “D” wave in an unfinished triangle in Minor degree.  If the worst case is still to play out, then $42 or $43 could still be the  price target that would have to get hit. 

Right now crude oil is getting cheaper as the Gold/oil ratio is sitting at 27:1 This is still rather cheap and the spread may still widen a bit, if oil keeps crashing. There are only 3 directions that charts can travel,  either the bear market still needs to finish,  or there is a bullish phase still to come.  Any big bullish phase can be a false bull market, but the difference is the degree level of any big bearish rally. 

The $47.50 is one price level where any short term bullish scenario can still work. Today’s decline was rather sharp and steep, which is a bullish sign. 

There is just too much turmoil in the oil market these days,  to take any fundamental inventory numbers seriously. I have mentioned it before, but if you hear fundamental news being spouted more than three times, then this news is already irrelevant. 

It gets worse if our friends or family members are parroting the same news. You may laugh, but we are in an electronic delivery world, where news travels fast. How fast? As fast as it takes the wave to travel around a hockey arena, or as fast as you can count out 20 even Fibonacci numbers from a list.  😉 

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Mini SP500 Intraday Gyrations Review

I though I would show a chart in line type. Making a switch from bar to a line type charts can also give you a different wave pattern and therefore a different count as well.  From the last major top I only show a wave 3-4 which drops into a wave 1. I started off with the smallest degree from my list of 15 degree levels, so the smallest wave one is in Miniscule degree.

Any smaller degree levels is not very practical, as we would need an electron scanning microscope to count any of the smaller degree levels.   Starting small helps to hold back the reins in entering a higher degree before it’s time to do so. 

I can always adjust to a higher degree in the future. Intraday charts have a limited life span, but I save all my  intraday charts on my home drive so if I have to I can look back and take a second look.

I’m still looking for the bearish count, which may stay between the two trend lines while I post, but the SP500 must break out of this box sooner or later. There are no exact certainties, if the bigger bullish party is already over. Other indices like the midcaps and the Russell 2000 are still leading the bearish charge heading down.

This is a good old smoke and mirror trick where they hide the lead declining indices baffling us with bullshit. This keeps the least knowledgeable investors secured in a bull trap.  It’s only the investors that refuse to study financial history that get trapped into staying invested at an extreme high.  We have just come off the highest peak in stock market history, and many think it’s a good time to invest??  It must be the new electronic version of the Tulip Mania, as all we did is switch plants. Apple Mania is the new and improved Tulip Mania from 380 years ago.  

If the bullish trend continues, then the top trend line will get sliced in two, but if the bearish trend is in place, then the bottom trend line will get slashed. This is not exactly rocket science as there are only 3 ways any market can go. 

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ZJG Canadian Gold Stock, ETF Review

Many of the gold stocks related ETFs that I write about, do have slightly different wave patterns. Some of the odd patterns break all my bullish outlook, while others look much better.  Since the early August 2016, double top, gold stocks have been grinding out a correction, which may have completed with the December 2016 bottom.  It looks like a potential 1-2 wave count start, but then it starts to fall apart as we start up the anticipated wave 3.

When the start of wave 3 started acting, “funny”, I knew a diagonal wave count would make a better fit. It would still be part of a bigger “C” wave bull market. “C” waves can stay depressed for long periods of time, but then get up and go in a wild move that nobody was expecting.

The US dollar spent over two years around that $79 price level before it turned and soared in a massive move to the upside.

To help confirm that a bigger bullish phase is still alive, two peaks should get retraced. This would be wave 1 in Minute degree at $10.50 and then the big top of $12 should also get retraced.

Higher lows are still being played out so my bet is that gold stocks will see a new record high before it will ever see a new record low!

Any bullish opinion on my part should not be used as a “buy” signal or investment advice, besides investors with low 6 figure trading accounts, are much better served with a newsletter subscription from Steven Jon Kaplan, “The True Contrarian”.  

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SP500 Intraday Gyrations Review

The markets haven’t pushed to a new record high since August, 8th. The markets need another shot of adrenaline or some magic herb as there is nothing to fuel the addiction. Maybe the markets need a jolt of electricity like a cattle prod,  to get this market soaring again.  We have some wild overlapping wave structures which just don’t fit into any nice impulse wave. I have to keep the bull market alive with bullish wave counts, until that Eclipse bottom is completely retraced.

Even then it may still be a bit too early to call the bull market dead. The VIX is making a triple bottom, which may not hold until the VIX also breaks this triple bottom support. 

Other indices like the Midcaps have jumped the gun at the start of this bear race, and pose no real threat for a sustained bull attack. It still leaves a few other indices in undecided patterns which can still break into a new record high. 

I dislike it when the markets are still this undecided, but that is what we’re being dealt and all we can do is track the small moves until they fit better into the bigger moves. The excitement of the solar eclipse has now come and gone and it may take until 2024 before the next eclipse happens.  Any eclipse has a minor effect on the markets, as the big flip of the sun’s north and south poles will have a much bigger impact than we can possibly imagine. 2008-2009 is a prime example, as solar cycle #24 gave us an 8 year bull market. 

Any time the markets head down, we will get the standard, “Doom and Gloom” forecasts. We have been getting climate related end of the world forecasts, but the markets have not reacted in a bearish nature to all this doom and gloom reporting.

Markets don’t care about runaway global warming” or if the world is going to self-combust, due to CO2.  I think the world needs to take a big pill to combat climate change paranoia. 

 

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Hacking Coinbase: The Great Bitcoin Bank Robbery

Bitcoin: Hacking Coinbase, Cryptocurrency’s ‘Goldman Sachs’ | Fortune.com

 

 

 

 

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Gold Intraday Correction Update

I think I’m getting close to a point where this wave count refuses to cooperate much longer. One clue will be that the present gold correction still drops like a rock, and takes out that $1270 price level. From about the 8th of August we also had what  looks like a great zigzag, which pushed to new record highs touching the $1300 price peak. 

Any bigger correction could push gold down below $1288 or even $1252, if this correction is going to go deeper and last longer in time than we think may happen. Gold topped just before the solar eclipse but the new moon dates can be very bullish for gold and gold stocks. 

I’m sure eclipse watching is going to be a real hot thing, but US eclipse watchers will have to wait until April, 8, 2024 before it will happen again. This makes the time between solar eclipses rather long, which diminishes its use as a reliable leading indicator. 

I would love to say that gold is going to soar to the heavens, but then I would just be producing a bunch of hype that will never happen in my lifetime. The media harped about $2000 gold over 40 years ago, and it still hasn’t arrived.  Most younger fundamental analysts don’t even know about any $2000 gold price forecast made in the 70s, so they have no clue how wild a $5000 gold price forecast sounds.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Eclipse Results

From my perspective, it sure looks like the markets just loved the solar eclipse, and it totally ignored the new moon date as well.  The market seems to be on the verge of completing one set of 5 waves, so the next few corrections will be important to see if this bullish phase carries on and breaks a new world record high, with this DJIA. 

It can do this so violently and fast, it will make our heads spin. At 21,808 we are at a bit of a resistance level  of a previous bottom so anything is still possible in the short term. Other indices have been leading the way down and they may not join in with any stock party still going to record highs. The bullish reporting of  the DJIA and the SP500 masks the lethargic performance of the Midcaps. 

At 21,850 the DJIA will run up against another trend line and resistance price level, so there are a few hurdles thrown in the way for a smooth sailing to a new record high. We have about 7 days left to go before the end of the month and the full moon date, so this market should give us a better directional signal in the next week or so. The sooner  the markets do break down to a newer low the better I like it, as we need more evidence that any decline will be maintained. One single wave count will not do it. 

Longer term, this bull market is finished and what we are getting, is just window dressing to keep all the stock bulls trapped.  In 2008 it was the exact opposite as early 2009 was just window dressing to keep all the stock bulls out of the markets. 

Markets can turn on Wednesdays so we have to wait and see if this bullish leg dies this week. 

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Idealized Cycle, Supercycle And Grand Supercycle Degree Review

All my work is based on the idea that the EWP is nothing but one huge impulse wave with its origins of wave zero starting at the bottom of the last ice age about 20,000 years ago.   About 8000 years ago the earths climate had already significantly warmed up, and commercial farming was picking up dramatically. Commercial farming allowed city states to grow into Empires which history has documented very well. Since then there have been ups and down trends that closely follow global warming and global cooling.

The above chart starts at the top left, with Cycle degree wave 3 followed by a Cycle degree 4th wave correction after which the markets should soar one more time. The key is what the pattern is that we would need to complete the 5th wave in Cycle degree. This would be 5 waves in Primary degree that would also follow solar cycle #25 to its top 5-8 years later.

Many times I include a triangle as my 4th wave, but that is only to show that no wave structures are even like they show us in the Little Blue Book.  Many times we would get a flat in a 4th wave position as triangles are a bit on the rare side.

The idealized chart ended in 2000 with a wave 3 in Intermediate degree followed by another 2007 top of Primary degree and now in 2017 I will be looking for a wave 3 in Cycle degree. Each wave 3 moves up by one degree which could top again closer to 2029 with a SC degree wave 3 at the right hand top of the chart above.

Nothing in the markets or life, travels as even as what they show us in the book.


This chart is the exact same thing as the top chart,  except it starts with SC degree wave 3,  but this time the 5 waves following the 4th wave correction, will be 5 waves up in Cycle degree. This sequence would end at the now famous GSC degree wave 3 top.  How long do you think that 5 waves in Cycle degree will last?  Our present Cycle degree has been running for 85 years and it’s still not finished, so any Cycle degree set of 5 waves could send us to the year 2129 before we ever reach any GSC degree  wave 3 top.

A third set of this idealized chart would get us to Submillennium degree wave 3, 200 years into the future closer to the years 2229. I see the wave 2 bottom of the Submillennium degree as being closer to the bottom of the Little Ice Age which only ended about 1850.  They called it, “1800 And Froze To Death'” and in 1816 they had the famous, “Year Without Summer”.

The LIA was documented very well by all the painters during that time, so pretending that it never happened flies against all evidence.

The two charts above will keep generations of wave analysts busy trying to confirm it. One big confirmation of the entire wave 2 base of counting would be the Cycle degree wave 4 bottom.

The majority of wave analysts is already counting in SC and or GSC degree, because they have never extended any wave 3 in the past.

The Elliott Wave Principle is not about what you see in the real  world, it’s all about what you’re supposed to see if all the 3rd waves are extended.  The DJIA is the very best in displaying the extended wave, but the majority has refused to do the work and go back 80-100 years to start a new count.

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Updated August, 27, 2017

This is the third chart in which I use the exact same template as the other two above, but this one outlines what a wave 3-4-5 in Grand Supercycle degree would count out when the third wave extends.  I will still update the first two charts, with a name change, but you can print out all three of them out and place them side by side in landscape, with our present Cycle degree on your left, SC degree in the middle followed by a GSC degree on your right.  If we are lucky Submillennium degree wave 3 may come to fruition closer to the year 2229, which is also the 300 year anniversary date of the 1929 stock market peak. Wave 1 in Submillennium degree, took about 300 years to peak out in the Midieval Warm period, followed by about a 4oo-600 year wave 2 bear market otherwise known as the Little Ice Age.

I could make a 4th chart in Millennium degree, but that would not finish until mankind is past the Age Of Aquarius!

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HUI Gold Stock Bullish Review

I have to give readers a small warning about the wave count above, as it is a very bearish wave count in the long term, but still very bullish in the short term. All other gold stock ETFs have different wave counts between each other as well, so this creates many different scenarios. 

If this market is a potential zigzag, then the HUI must not travel to new record highs, but must stop short of any August, 2016 peak. This wave count could easily fail by charging through the August peak. I have seen other wave patterns like this, where the market soared. When we look at the Gold/Hui ratio we are not near any potential overbought condition or expensive to gold.

The ratio is 6.52:1, up from the cheap side of about 11:1. It would have to travel towards 3:1 before gold stocks become expensive when compared to gold. We are still a long way away from any extreme Gold/Hui ratio, so this HUI could be sending the wrong signals. 

Even SIL has the same pattern, but with a much longer looking wedge. Unless I hear that Steven Jon Kaplan turns very bearish on gold stocks and sells all his gold stock positions, I will remain bullish. He will not even warn you about selling anything, the orders will go out to his members in email, and they will execute their sell orders at the same time.  

I have a contrarian friend that would also turn very bearish as he has been a True Contrarian subscriber for many years. If the real wave action starts to deviate away from the bigger bearish scenario, then that is a good sign.

As a disclaimer, when I talk about any gold stock wave count, they should not be used as a buying signal or any buying investment advice, as I’m not a registered investment advisor. I consult with people that have the desire to better understand the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) from a long wave perspective.

Some gold related funds like CA: PME, which I have a small position in, is even paying out $5 CAD per month on 200 shares.

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Gold Intraday Bullish Phase Update

I’m going to carry on with this potential zigzag, but it could all fall apart just the same.  I’m going for a 1-2, 1-2 wave count, which would extend any potential wave 3.  There is little room to spare with this wave count, so it won’t take that long to make or break it.  It may take until late next week before the gold market breaks into another leg up. 

Gold stopped dead at $1300 which I do see as an important number as it has repelled from this ceiling 3-4 times in the past already.  Ultimately, it will take gold until it clears that $1375 price level, to confirm that this bear market since the mid June 2016 peak,  was just a correction. 

Most gold stocks related ETFs should also do the same thing in the long term. Gold stocks are lagging behind gold, as they are not on the same wave count as gold, but in the end gold stocks should still go vertical at the peak of any major bullish run. 

From early 2016, gold soared, but I don’t consider that as a vertical run. The present gold run is not an Elliott wave rocket science observation anymore, as more and more fundamental analysts are jumping on the gold bandwagon.

When this gold bandwagon gets too full or overbooked, then it will be setting up for a crash. 😎  

 

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Mini DJIA Intraday Crash Update.

So far the August 8th peak has retained its position as the counter rally threatened to push to new record highs. The rally started like a 5 wave sequence, but then the markets proved that it was not.   The DJIA has now completely retraced the August rally and it should continue.   This time I started with a zigzag in Subminuette degree which will get bigger over time. 

When we get closer to any Minor degree wave 1 then it will be important to adjust. We really don’t know what we are going to get but a big flat is at the top of my list. It would be sic if any Cycle degree flat turns into a running flat or even a regular flat. 

An expanded flat is not ruled out, but it should be the “B” wave in Primary degree that can poke its peak to new record highs. 

My Cycle degree wave 1-2 (1938 1942) was a zigzag so I don’t want to see another Cycle degree zigzag. We are going to hear all sorts of bearish news come out as the market keeps declining. We can flip a coin which bearish story may dominate, but the majority will never see it coming. 

The writing has been on the wall for sometime already, and it is only the majority that figure that this market has no end. 

It is still early in the game as weekly and monthly charts have barely moved. Any higher degree correction should get us below the November, 2016 price, after which we may have the formation of a better defined pattern. 

The VIX is also hovering around the $15.50 price level, which closed one of the biggest gaps still open. As usual, new trend swings can raise havoc with extreme swings in both directions, but most of all we want to see the August, 8th hold. 

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Crude Oil Intraday Crash Review

So far the $47 price level is the low to beat at this time. 7 waves of the impulse looking wave can still form as that would make it a diagonal “C” wave decline. $46 is not ruled out, but the longer oil keeps going up the better the odds of not seeing $46. 

There has been little change, but the Gold/Oil ratio got better as gold touched the $1300 price level. This morning the ratio was about 27.16:1 which just about seems like the norm. I don’t like “norm” as that would suggest an average or fair value of any asset class. A Gold/Oil ratio of 44:1 is not normal by any standards, so when that ratio shifts back, or compresses to the 20-17:1 range, oil is still on the cheap side.

We could run into a situation where oil could run to $89 but when we check the ratio it is sitting at an insane 10:1, then the oil bull market would be ready to crash once again. The experts can spew out all the bullish oil price forecasts that they want, but oil will ignore them and start to crash again when the ratio gets skewed. 

As I post oil has just soared past the last two highs, which is a good sign at this time.

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