Daily Archives: June 25, 2017

2017 Wheat Glut Review! Will the Glut Be Over Soon?

Dusty Fields Signal a Peak for the Global Wheat Glut – Bloomberg

When I read the story about the wheat glut, I was a bit surprised the wheat prices were still rather high. Like the story says, production and local weather should reduce any supply, which means that the glut will soon be over. There is very little in the shape of good clean impulse waves, so the 5 waves in Minor degree are diagonals. Large degree diagonals do happen, and many end with a zigzag ride to new highs.

I looked back further than 1980, with the potential for a 4th wave bottom in late 1999. Do you think the sun has any effect on global wheat production? It sure does as wheat prices could be used like a canary in a coal mine. In 1980 wheat prices peaked along with the solar cycle peak. Then wheat prices went sideways and down, but not before wheat prices peaked, at the bottom of the 1996 solar cycle.

From early 1996 wheat prices crashed and then soared in a wild ride, peaking  once again in early 2008. This tells us that wheat prices retreat when we get a start to another solar cycle. Even though it alternates, there are just too many peaks and gullies, when wheat prices were repelled or attracted like a magnet.

This will be very interesting to see if what wheat is showing us, is just another correction. Wheat prices could soar in the next 3-4 years, as it may take that long before solar cycle #24 ends. Wheat is not going to soar because of man-made global warming, it’s going to soar because of the solar cycles.

The bearish phase from the early 2008 top, is just a bit over 8 years long, which is pretty close to a Fibonacci number. I love the even Fibonacci numbers as they can supply good turning dates, to large bull market and even bear market runs. 

Hits: 0