10-Year T-Notes 2000-2018 Cycle Degree Review

The media have gone wild in reporting the bond market crash. When I read about intense bearish news about any asset, I usually look at the bond charts to see what, if the asset class is ready to reverse and go the other way.  This 10-Year T-Note pattern is one of the wildest I have tried to count out. The reason for that is because this T-Note chart is part of a giant Cycle degree wave 4 rally, which is a big bear market rally still going on since about 1981 or about 37 years.

I am tracking this bond market for close to 20 years now, as this bond market pattern seems to have hit a peak back in 2012 and has now been in about a 5 year bearish trend as no new record highs have been recorded. I have mentioned it before in that I don’t believe that this bull market is over yet, and what we had is more like a zigzag correction as the wave 2 correction in Intermediate degree only fits best as a flat.  A flat in a diagonal bull market? Yes, I have no problem with that as waves 1-3-5 should mostly be zigzags.

The 4th wave has come back into the peak of wave 1 which instantly throws it out as a nice high quality impulse. Friday I saw the T-Notes started to rally so the bottom could be in already.  One COT report has the commercials carrying their biggest long positions in the last year, which does not support a basic bear market for very long.

If you think that 10-Year notes can’t rally, then look what happened after the 2000 crash bottom. A “B” wave bottom in Primary degree. T-Notes soared as the markets crashed, as investors searched for safe-havens.  It might take a few years or more, but we could still see a major rally for the next several more years. From the 2000 bottom to a potential 2021 peak would fit well into the time cycle. We are witnessing a big bond bear trap in the making and once the stops start getting hit, it could start to accelerate it’s really.

I could draw you a nice Intermediate degree falling wedge as well, which I use for ending bearish trends.  I don’t have the time to keep updating Intraday reports on this, but I will try to get important turnings before they start to happen. Drawing in wedges after they are done is kind of silly as anyone can see the angles after they have completed. The only good wedge is the one we see before it happens not after.

Since we would be in a diagonal 5th wave we should expect a zigzag in Minor degree.

If you see the dark red lines  on the right side of this chart, you are looking at the commercial traders long positions. The light Magenta color is the short positions of the speculators (expert fund managers) Both in opposing views. There is no way I can keep supporting a bearish outlook as this could all turn around and surprise the entire world! It might be slow at first, but it should pick up steam as the bullish phase returns.

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