10-Year T-Note: Is It Time To Turn?

The news that Bonds, stocks and gold are falling at the same time is no surprise. I have been warning about this for sometime already, but when the media picks up on it, it already becomes old news.  My personal guideline is that when your friends start talking to you about this bond decline, then it’s already old news. News circles the world about as fast as the crowd can do the wave at your basic hockey game. Every major bond trader has that type of news high on their reading list.

Yes their may still be a bit more downside to come but it looks like it may have already turned. I’m not going to draw you a pretty arrow pointing up as I think my readers understand the basics of the idealized form.  I expect a full reversal as this 10-Year T-Note bull market is far from finished.

We are finishing a 4th wave correction in Intermediate degree with a Minor degree zigzag. The current commitment of traders bond postion has shifted to the long position by a huge amount. When commercial long prositions get this skewed then the 10-Year T-Note bear market is going to run into very stiff resistance where a bull market has the base to grow from.

Just to get warmed up complete 4th wave retracement will happen and eventually this T-Year T-Note chart will soar up and beyond the top of the chart.  Chances are extremely high that diagoanl wave structures will be the main theme with another potential zigzag we have to contend with.

I can’t always keep up with any intraday charts, but I will try and catch strong turnings as much as I can. Everybody is freaking out about much higher rates to come, but I don’t see it that way if this bond bearish phase was just a correction in a bigger bull market.

Bonds have been in a bull market since about 1982 with a Cycle degree wave 4 bull market. This bull market is not finished so one more extreme high should happen. I’m dealing with 30 Cycle degree 4th wave patterns, and I have many asset classes where I also have 4th wave declines in Intermediate and  Minor degree 4th waves.

The moves that force short players into a trap are the best reversals, as the power of the bulls will slice and dice all the bears betting on a continued decline.

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