Crude Oil 1999-2019 Review

I constantly review the bigger picture, as I see it everything related to commodities are diagonal wave structures. The 1990s was a correction with a triangle in the “B” wave of Intermediate degree ending in 1999.

Then in the middle of a worldwide oil glut crude oil started to soar until peak oil ended in 2008. Most of all wave analysts count 1999-2008 as a set of 5 waves in Primary degree, yet I count 7 waves.  Forcing 5 waves when there are only 7 waves is what I try and avoid.

During the 2008 peak, the Gold/Oil Ratio hit 9:1 when crude oil started to crash. Many smart contrarians knew that oil was going to crash, just because of the ratio was at an extreme.

I called the crash as well except my wave degree levels were off by a long shot.  From 2008 to the 2016 bottom looks like a perfect Primary degree zigzag has completed, which also ended with a potential 4th wave in Cycle degree.

Another zigzag in Primary degree could be one of the options that will end with Cycle degree wave 5. Wave 1 in Intermediate degree may already be completed but in the short term, oil can be fooling us as wave 2 might not be finished just yet.

The drone attack produced a crazy move to $63, a few dollars shy of what I thought it would do, but in its wake oil also produced one “Humungous gap”.

It was about a $4 gap between $56 and $60, so crude oil can crash right back down to $56 with little problem. (or lower)

I have never noticed a gap in oil this large since I started wave counting oil. This is a very bearish signal.

There should be no panic as they say the drone attacks was just 5% of world oil production taken offline. This made the USA the largest exporter of oil for the short term.

The Gold/Oil ratio also compressed to 24.9 from Fridays ratio of 27.13. Oil refineries blow up regularly but they can also rebuild them very fast by working 24/7.

Only time can answer a few more questions, as we have to see how deep oil prices can still fall.  Any oil price fall below $45 will definitely kill this short term wave count.

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Crude Oil Drone Attack Review

It seems pretty popular that events and news releases happen on the weekend when the markets are closed. The recent drone attack in Saudia Arabia is a prime example.

The markets are closed so the oil prices will not react until the start of trading Sunday night. It still gives traders lots of time to think it over if panic is going to hit the oil market.

There is no shortage of oil in the world as every country wants to pump and sell as much as the can. In the USA refineries blow up on a regular basis, but production gets back online fairly quickly.

Oil could make a drive to $60 before another decline sends oil south, but again early next week should tell us more.

Oil is in a crazy complex correction that is far from being finished and if oil ever falls below the December 2018 low of $45 I must use my bullish wave count.

Oil is still in a death cross but that also can change next week if oil makes a bounce.

The Gold/Oil ratio is far away from being expensive (9.1) as today it sits at 27.13, which is barely a point difference than 10 days ago. The ratio is not an issue at this time.

The commercials are net short but those readings are not at extremes as well. There is lots of room for oil to move in both directions.

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Min Dow Index Intraday Update

The DOW is being pushed to the limits of what wave 2 rallies can do so only a clear push to new record highs will kill it. Otherwise, it is primed to fall and start to close 2 of the big caps open below present prices.

Besides being an unlucky Friday 13th, we also have a full moon today which can be a turning signal as well. With 2 open gaps that makes it about 4 bearish signals that I use, which most analysts ignore as they are to busy chasing fundamentals which change as fast as the wind.

Any drop in the DOW will bring out the bearish news and we never know from what country it will come from.

Record high prices don’t reflect that a recession is here already, even though we can see the world economies are slowing down.

It’s a “Sit and Wait” situation at this time, but next week should tell us more.

The Gold/Dow ratio is still very expensive as it was 18.3 today from the ratio of 21:1, we have a long way to go before the DOW becomes cheap again at 7.19 where it only takes 7.19 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the DOW.

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Intraday Silver Crash Update

I have silver as a bear market rally with potential support at $16.80,  but silver would get there before this wave pattern is finished.

Worst gets to worse if silver falls below $13.50, then this so-called bull market will get confirmed that it was just another bear market rally.

Is gold going to stay in a bull market? I find it hard to believe for silver to break to new bear market lows and gold doesn’t.

Even though I need another Minor degree zigzag on a 5th leg only time will tell when that will happen. On the daily chart, silver has left a beautiful spike behind, and spikes are my sell or buy signals regardless of what wave count I may be on.

I trade Forex silver units on my iPhone and use futures charts to set up trades with, so watching silver is important from my perspective.

I also have a small portfolio and a silver related stock that has soared while silver has been crashing which I was expecting because investors will run to penny stocks as a safe haven.

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Gold Friday, 13, 2019 Intraday Crash Update

 

So far gold is still on its way heading south with more to come. The US dollar has also made some bearish gyrations but so far gold has ignored the USD.

Stocks could head south and gold can do the same thing. What gold needs to show us is a clear correction well before $1380 as this has price support of a previous 4th wave. This correction must hold with gold soaring again to new record highs, that will kill my bearish wave count.

There are no daily limits in all commodities so gold crashes it can make dramatic moves that some investors do not understand.  I like that about gold and silver because bearish moves happen faster than bullish moves do.

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Solar Cycle 24 August Update.

This more of a technical look at the solar cycle with each dot, it represents the previous month’s sunspot activities. Last month was pretty dead as we had long stretches where the face of the sun was blank.

This is normal as the same thing happened back in 2008-2009.

The first peak in late 2011 matched the gold peak after which the secondary peak happened in early 2014.  2011 matches the gold and silver mania peak which is not a coincidence.

They do alternate, repelling and attracting prices here on earth.

The sun is what controls climate change, not some invisible CO2 gas that all the experts claim. The world is freaking out as more and more countries scream “Climate Emergency”.

Much of Canada is claiming a climate emergency, but yet they want to let in many climate refugees.  Wow, what a contradiction and when you are faced with a contradiction then at least 1 or more of our premises is wrong!

This is so true with any wave count we can produce as well. In the TV show, Jesse Stone solves a triple murder by going over the premises over and over.

Right now, it may take until 2021 for solar cycle 24 to end, but solar cycle 25 will already be in the mix. Solar cycle 25 should be very bullish for stocks but the next few years should tell us more.

 

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DOW Mini Index Review

I have gone over the entire bull market since the 2009 bottom and I may have missed an extension. Also since the December 2018 bottom, a set of 5 waves developed also containing an expanded pattern after which we had a July peak after which the DOW started another bearish move.

Expanded patterns show in 4th wave corrections frequently, so that also fits better. If our present move is a wave 2, then there should be no more new record highs. Many more gaps show up with this chart so anyone of them can get closed in the next few months or so.

This is all coming down to the wire but all it takes is the wrong kind of news and the DOW will make another leg down.

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Silver Weekly Chart 2011-2019 Review

One reason that not too many wave analysts work on silver as it just does not play well with gold. It is a difficult task alright as the choppy waves overlap dramatically.

When that happens then diagonal wave structures are in force like they are in “All” commodities.  Silver didn’t even get past the Aug 1, 2016 high of $20.76, while gold left silver in the dust!

Last weeks spike peak which I look for are my sell signals, regardless of how they might say silver will go to.  Catching up to silver seems to be the battle cry most of the time, but the same thing happened at the 2011 peak.  I have returned to silver as a 4th wave rally which I have used for some time before.

A new zigzag should form but that impending zigzag should take out all double bottom support. Just by dropping down one degree pushes any “A” wave in Primary degree into the future in the next year or so.

Any drop in the silver price below $13.50 would confirm that silver was just a bear market rally. All silver needs to do is drop a bit more than $6 from today’s highs.

From 1980 to about 1999 silver was in a 19-year bear market, so don’t expect a 10-year bear market to finish a Cycle degree bear market just yet.

 

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Gold Weekly Chart 2011-2019 Bear Market Review.

Well, folks, in the last week I printed out many charts like this and switch back and forth to line type settings.

The gold rally ended Sept, 5 at $1555. Is $1555 going to hold for the high of the year, will gold still soar like many of the talking heads say it will.

At the gold peak, many aggressive gold forecasts were made, just like they have done many times before.

I think gold is fooling us with its bullish pattern while silver showed us it couldn’t care less. By making the 2011 decline into diagonal decline, makes the 2015 bottom only a wave 3 in Intermediate degree.

Readers know I have done this before and a switch works best at the turning of a month.

Gold needs to show us another zigzag decline in Minor degree which could take more than a year and it moves the Primary degree “A” wave into the future as well.

Dropping the gold bear market down by just one degree sends the Primary degree “A” wave back into inventory. Gone by the stroke of a pen.

There is no price support here because I question support for what? Just because gold had a very bullish run does not mean a true bull market is in play or has started!

I’m sure the day will come when gold crashes below $1400 again, but any move now has to show us that a zigzag 5th wave in Minor degree is going to start.

We have had about 8 strong bullish rallies since the 2011 peak and most of them failed and when it wants to gold’s price could drop $50-$100 at a time.

I can make the silver wave count work better as a 4th wave decline, so silver may end up giving us an early clue when the “New” “A” wave in Primary degree appears.

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Silver Intraday Crash Update

As much as I would like to give you a wave count matching the bullish herd, I can’t.  The above silver COT report has the commercials at record high short positions.  They do not support a long term bull market in silver.  Last weeks silver spike on the daily charts was a sell signal, from my perspective.

All weekend I have conducted reviews in silver and gold going right back to the 2011 peak. There are some serious differences between the two but right now I will deal with silver. I have always complained that silver walks to a different drummer and one reason that this is the case is that no “A” wave in Primary degree has started back at the 2015 bottom and a possible 4th wave in Intermediate degree has recently ended.

What I’m looking for is another Minor degree zigzag that at this time I will not mention any support. From the 2011 peak, I can count out diagonal patterns so the ugly pattern since the 2015 bottom, is just continuing. I have used this wave count many times before and will now run it until it no longer works.

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Gold/GDX: The Bearish Picture, 2015-2019 Review

Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI

Mark Hulbert makes a very strong bearish case with his sentiment readings. I pay attention to that, as wave counts come to an end when sentiment is very bullish or bearish.

When the mainstream analysts start forecasting crazy bullish gold forecasts like $3000 gold or higher, then who is left to come in?

Below is the simple chart version of the commercials being net short, while the speculators have a huge long position. The last 5 speculators bars also has a flat top, which shows they are not that enthusiastic to take on more bullish positions.

The speculators are the emotional players and they will be the first to sell gold when this gold bull market turns out to be a dud!

While gold was still in a rally, the commercials added to their bearish positions, but the speculators added to their already massive long side. Both parties can’t be right as they contradict each other.

Last week spikes were starting to form, which are sell signals from my perspective.  I think gold is fooling us, as no other gold-related asset class like GDX could keep up to the metal.

If the Primary degree “B” wave top is in, then investors will suffer serious losses if the stay. Gold has already crashed $50 last week, which could be the start of a very bearish run.

When we look at GDX, we can see that it’s being left in the dust when comparing it to gold. We have resistance going back to the 2013 peaks, with an open gap just barely getting closed off.

Draw another line from the 2016 peak to our present 2019 peak, we can see a massive H&S. In a very bullish market, the right shoulder will just correct, and then break out again, but no such pattern will happen if a bigger bearish move is already in progress.

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Silver Daily Chart Crash Review

Many analysts are talking how silver will outperform gold yet silver still needs to go above $21. Silver is lagging far behind gold just like it has done since the August 2016 peak.

In the last few days, 2 vertical spikes formed which is usually a sell signal. I closed my 9 silver positions a bit after the top @ $19.07  and now have to wait for another good setup.

So far I can’t see any Minute degree wave count that has complete which I don’t like to see, while gold is ready for a 4th wave correction in Minor degree.

The short version is that silver is still marching to a different drummer.

At the intraday scale silver is close to another double bottom but I don’t trust it as on the Forex screen silver has already lost support.

Every bullish correction on the way up could now offer support if the gold bulls are correct. As it sits silver can be in just another zigzag.

The silver decline had mostly 5 wave sequences so looking for a correction to finish, is the best guess scenario right now.

I already switched to a bullish position but will close off Sunday night if silver doesn’t return to a bullish acting pattern.

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SP500 E-Min Index Review: Getting Down To the Wire!

The index only moves during the day with some of the wild moves smooth out a bit more.

The recent bullish price surge is getting down to the wire as there is very little room left before the SP500 breaks out to new record highs.

There is also an open gap which should get closed off, but ultimately this wave count has to decline and take out multiple support price levels around the 2830 price level.

They keep talking about a recession but this chart is still at record highs. Record lows would be better as when that happens we know the recession will be over.  2008 was a good recession year reflected by the charts with massive insider buying.

If, we don’t get a significant correction by the time solar cycle 25 is in full force a new bull market should start.

Upswings in solar cycles are very bullish for stocks which could happen by early 2021.  In the next few months, this SP500 would have a long way to go as it has to clear the bottom of my “A” in Intermediate degree.

The Gold/SP500 ratio is sitting at record highs at 1.96  just off the 2:1 expensive ratio I have recorded.

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Crude Oil: Weekly Chart Update

So far I’m going to stick with Cycle degree wave 4 as completed.

I have to be open to the idea that another big zigzag in Primary degree might happen, so this 5 wave sequence would end at another “A” wave in Primary degree.

Early this morning crude oil spiked and has started to dip again, and may still head to the $50 price range.

The Gold/Oil ratio is 26.8 which is more expensive than the August readings and this ratio should expand a bit more in September.

Any move that would take oil below the $45 price level might force another complete review.

Don’t expect some beautiful impulse move as we are in a diagonal world where wave structures do overlap and can even look like they are going sideways.

Switching from bar type to line type also changes the wave counts as many spikes get smoothed out in the process.

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US Dollar: Still Heading North

This could be the first chart where I show that we could be in a Primary degree run already.  Trying different degree levels is important as the USD could make a swan dive trashing the bottom trend line.

Turning real bearish too early doesn’t work as this choppy trend could just frustrate us to no end. The gold bulls sure would get a kick if the USD suddenly imploded, and the EURO started to soar again.

2008 was a major bottom for the US dollar and I think it’s bullish run is far from over, corrections notwithstanding.

The US dollar has very good solar cycle connections as the 2011 and 2014 lows match the two peaks of solar cycle 24. Even the 2008 USD bottom matches solar cycle 24 so it is next to impossible to say that it was just a lucky coincidental occurrence.

When solar cycle 25 arrives will it send stocks and the US dollar soaring again? All the indicators on the planet will not work if we ignore the power of the sun and its 11-12-year cycles.  Talk of a recession is endless which can happen as one solar cycle ends and the next cycle starts.

From my perspective solar cycle, 25 will become the recession killer just like 2008-2009.

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Silver: Still Flying High Weekly Chart Review

I’m impressed with this vertical move in silver as I haven’t had a chart move like this in quite some time.  At the $20 price level silver is going to run into some resistance and at $21 silver is going to make a breakout.

Usually, when a spike like this happens, it’s followed by a correction or complete end of a trend. I don’t think we are at the end of this bullish move as we would get a little more warning with many more choppy wave structures.

This silver move is already past that of a good zigzag (bear rally) so the 5 wave sequence is still alive an well. I took on long silver units when silver was just above $16 and I will let it ride at this time.

We may start to read very bullish scenarios about silver like they are doing with gold but most of them are “Pie in the sky” forecasts.

I still believe a 4th wave will come but it would be far too early if it tried to start a 4th wave correction now!

 

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Quick Gold Weekly Chart Review

At $1550 gold is running into resistance but how much resistance remains to be seen.  At the small intraday scale, gold seems to be correcting which means gold still has room to move up, at least in the short term.

Since the 2015 bottom gold has now moved $500 and is about $370 away from breaking a new record high. ($1920)

Silver has also gone vertical so a correction is due in silver as well.  I’m looking for a wave 3-4 to develop in Minor degree and no amount of little wave counting will make it come any sooner.

Even the two trend lines are suspect as they can be very subjective. At $1800 gold would see resistance increase and I would like to see that 4th wave come and go!

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Crude Oil Weekly Chart Review

Looking at oil from a weekly chart perspective I have made some changes where the 2016 low is also my Cycle degree 4th wave low!

If we are lucky this wave count may last until the end of the year but be open to being wrong.  This would be a diagonal 5 wave sequence but end at an “A” wave in Primary degree, not a wave 1 in Primary degree.

If any of this bullish scenario is true then expect choppy and overlapping waves that will keep the wave analysts scratching their heads.

Some wild spike to the downside could send this wave count into the digital graveyard fairly quick, but I have to run it until it’s eliminated.

The Gold/Oil ratio is about 28:1 which is not that expensive.

In 2018 we saw a golden cross develop so it would be critical to watch if we get a death cross dip!

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DOW E-Mini Intraday Sideways Action Update

After a month of sideways movement, the E-Mini is back at the resistance of about 26,400 with a quadruple top.  A huge breakout to the upside would kill this wave count off pretty quick, as we also have possible double zigzag.

The short version is that during the month of August, wave 3-4 may just be finishing.  We wouldn’t know that until the August price support crumbles and the majority of analysts start to freak out.

At this scale, the moving averages bounce around a lot so they are not that reliable as they criss-cross each other.

The new moon is this Friday and we are on the last days of the month so that combination can always raise a bit of stock market turmoil.

My last Gold/Dow ratio recorded was July, 11  at 19.3 with today recording a ratio of 17.  The DOW got cheaper but not by all that much.  A ratio of 8:1 is dirt cheap but that will need constant checking when we think we are getting close.

Gold is acting a bit bearish today so a correction could be just around the corner.

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Natural Gas Monthly Chart Review

Without a doubt, the Natural Charts charts have some of the wildest moves I have ever seen or tried to count out.

Commercials are net short NG, while the speculators see a very bullish picture. That doesn’t mean NG is going to soar in price, but the winter is coming soon and it could be much colder than normal.

The world is freaking out about climate change which has more to do with the sun and its solar cycles then any CO2 built up in our atmosphere. The war on coal or fossil fuels continues as many electricity generating plants are switching over to NG.

Natural gas may have to break to new record lows before we see a substantial rally.

There is no way of seeing supply numbers as they just flare off any extra NG that they don’t need, besides that, they flare for safety reasons.  When the flare rate increases then we know a natural gas glut is already here!

It may take the rest of the year but I’m sure solar cycle 24 is drawing NG prices down.

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Silver Monthly Chart Review

Many believe that silver is going to outperform gold.  Right now gold is leading, with silver still trailing far behind.  I don’t see the big deal as silver failed to perform compared to the 1980 peak and the 2011 peak.

When I turn the settings to line type, then that huge 1980 spike turns into a $35 spike.  About $13 disappears when switching settings.

Silver is a prime example of what diagonal waves can look like as the 1990 bear market had many overlapping waves followed by a bull market after the 2001 bottom.

More spikes formed during the 2002-2011 bullish phase which was also a “C” wave bull market.

Then in early 2011 silver peaked and then started a 4+ year bearish phase that looks like a 5 wave decline at this time.

That bearish phase ended in late 2015 and silver exploded along with gold. I’m sure more silver upside is still to come even though silver is dragging its feet.

The commercials made bearish moves last week but it seems they can handle much more as this bullish phase progresses.

Somewhere silver will start to extend and since wave 1 is a bit short, this could force wave 3 and wave 5 to extend. I’m not too concerned which one will extend because the bullish phase will end when all the experts start calling for $200-$500 silver again! They have been calling for $200 silver since the 1970s and the silver price has never hit $200!

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Tilray Inc Bear Market Review

Nothing that has happened in the “Marijuana Industry” is any real surprise.

I came across this story which I  agree with, Why Investing in Marijuana Stocks is a Dumb Idea.

Someone bought TLRY at $300 as it went vertical so what did he see in TLRY at that price level?  I bet the guy was stoned when he clicked his mouse on the “Buy” button!

10 months or so later TLRY crashed from $300 to about $28!  How is buy and hold working for TLRY investors? All this is great in hindsight but we have seen these types of moves before with other pot stocks.

Anyways I just posted this for entertainment as this TLRY stock has a lot more room to fall and it may even flat line well below the starting price of $20!

You never know, but TLRY could be a different story by the time solar cycle 25 arrives in full force.

 

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GLD Gold ETF Update

GLD is a very popular GOLD related ETF and it tracks the gold futures very well.  At this time GLD was close to $144 which is a Fibonacci number.  I looked over many other gold-related wave counts and after about 20-30 I was getting bored as they all looked the same.

The $2000 gold price forecast has become popular again followed by a $5000 gold price forecast. I’m sure we will hear more insane gold price forecasts as this bullish phase matures. $10,000 gold price forecasts can be seen in the tabloids if you look hard enough. They have been forecasting a $2000 gold price since the ’70s which has never been achieved.

There is a real good chance that gold and GLD are in a bear market rally while others do not only a few have the same “A” wave bottom as my wave count.

The bullish phase is not over as I believe 5 waves still have to develop and until they do I will remain bullish.

At this time the 5th wave could be the shortest out of the three waves. Any 4th wave could take 2-3 months to correct so that should drive the gold bulls nuts for a little while.

At this time I doubt that the entire run may finish this year as it could carry on until spring 2020.

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DOW E-Mini Intraday Crash Update

Last week the DOW hit resistance about 3 times after which the investors started to panic again.  I believe this could be a wave 1-2 in Minor degree, but the DOW needs to decline much further to show us that the stock bears are in control.

Friday ended with a sharp spike to the downside but we will see if that spike holds any serious price level.

We also finished a golden cross but it may mean nothing as a death cross could follow just as fast.

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GDXJ Gold Stock ETF Review

GDXJ is an ETF that tracks the Junior gold mining companies and it’s also lagging behind gold as the July 2016 peak has not been exceeded.  GDX is just shy of breaking out while gold has soared.

GDXJ is also in a bear market rally which started in early 2016. A couple of trendlines can point us to an early  “C” wave price target.  I still need wave 3-4 and 5 to play out which can produce insane extensions.

The Gold/Gdxj ratio is sitting at 38.26  which is not that cheap but is still a far cry away from the expensive 10:1 ratio.

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HUI 2011-2019 Review

The HUI turned out to be a popular gold stock related index while GDX is a good ETF to watch. They are both about the same but GDX is performing a bit better than the HUI.

Gold has already soared well above that 2016 high while the HUI has still been lagging far behind.  Many of the gold-stock ETFs have been lagging far behind gold, so I’m sure there is some catching-up still to come.

Analysts have been looking for big break-out moves back in 2011 and they never materialized as well. Silver is in the same boat as the 2011 peak barely exceeded the 1980 peak by just a few dollars.

Don’t get me wrong as I’m bullish until all 5 waves in Minor degree show themselves. The lagging is just an early warning.

The Gold/Hui ratio sits at 6.9 this morning and that number should compress much more before this bullish phase comes to an end.

GDX is an ETF that we can trade so it makes sense not to spend too much of my time wave counting the HUI.

Give this until late this year to see if the next leg appears, but either way, I don’t want to turn bearish too early.

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DOW E-Mini Intraday Update

For all of August, the DOW E-Mini has been dancing around in both directions. Good Luck trying to fit this into a bullish impulse even though a set of 5 waves seems to be finishing.

Yes the DOW has just created a golden cross, but it sure can head back down and execute a death cross! From what I see I have to remain bearish as 2 H&S patterns have also formed.

A strong bullish move would shred the resistance line to the upside. On the bearish side, we eventually would have to see new records lows.

Give it until the end of the month for a new bearish trend to show itself with a wave 3-4-5 in Minor degree still to complete.

Another leg down in the DOW sure could send gold soaring in another leg up.  In a sic way the DOW could see 5 waves down in Minor degree while gold might get 5 waves up in Minor degree.

If we were in an Intermediate degree decline, then I think this sideways pattern would take much longer to play out.

Once the DOW crashes below the August 6th low then we will know for sure that this August rally was just another bear market rally.  Yes, the decline started out very choppy but they can also smooth out as the trend matures. 21,600 could bring us support but that number may mean nothing once fear starts spreading far and wide.

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Crude Oil 1980-2019 Review

Even though I look at the charts every day, my short term wave counts need improvements and that all depends on where we are in the bigger picture.

Crude oil charts go back to the 1850s and the start of Supercycle degree oil. One thing is certain is that crude oil and all commodities as well belong in the diagonal world where zigzags are everywhere and most of the time the waves overlap with each other.

This makes it impossible to count out any high quality 5 wave impulse.  There are more Minor degree 5 wave runs in a Cycle degree world and the above chart has two sets of them.

It may be a temporary thing but I reduced the degree level after the 2008 peak. This makes 2016 low the Primary degree “A” wave, matching gold.

If I moved wave 3 in Cycle degree back to the 1980 peak it would be very strange and all the wave counts would no longer make sense. I have switched to Cycle degree wave counting since 2013 and have “No” intention of going back again.

The Gold/Oil cash is about 26.7 which is not cheap enough to produce a massive crude oil bull market but still produce more zigzags along with the bullish gold price.

I show a potential wedge which oil will need to slice through. Oil would have to travel the furthest to the downside with a bearish mood. With the trade war and tanker traffic war turning off their GPS units, oil could float around for years distorting any fundamental reporting.

The USA is now the worlds largest oil and gas a producer which is not bad considering the experts had us running out of oil in early 2008!

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Gold Intraday Correction Update

Some investors may be unloading gold inventory which was bound to happen after a vertical move.  The question is how deep can gold go? Below $1485 would be nice but I’ll be open to a deeper plunge if need be.

Any correction means another leg up in the gold price is still to come.  I’m looking for diagonal connections, as the mainstream media was all charged up for $1600 gold.  We sure don’t want to disappoint them if gold crashed to $1400!

Silver is also taking a hit but it has a lot of catching up to do and is lagging behind gold like it has done many times before.

Some analysts are already calling for $2200 gold but they have been doing that since the 1970s.

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GDX Gold Stock Bullish Phase Update

GDX tracks the HUI fairly well with plenty of volume and liquidity for any trader. I don’t have any positions in GDX but my funds are in 4 Canadian penny stocks that do have exposure to the gold sector.

Trend lines can be very subjective but right now the trend looks like it’s still heading up! I believe we need a 5 wave sequence in Minor degree with wave 3-4-5 still to develop.

Since the 2018 price low, we’ve been in a “C” wave bull market which if we are very lucky, might take us to the $55 price level again.

Last week, with gold making a bit of a jump, the Gold/GDX ratio expanded to 53.46 from 50.98 which means that GDX got a little cheaper last week. This bullish phase could last all year but the trick is to understand the 4th wave when it is unfolding.

 

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