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Quick Intraday DJIA Update

This is the September contract and in it we see far more violent moves than what the standard DJIA index will give us. By the looks of what I see is that the DJIA is still heading south, but it will also get closer to some key previous support price levels.  If there is more to this decline than meets the eye, then any support price has no hope of holding. The majority love to analyze everything using “Price”. Pattern pulls far more weight than any price forecast will do as the markets are controlled by the wave structure not by the price structure.

One example of this is, did the “price” of the bear market low in 2009 gave you a clear signal that a huge bull market was coming? Not a fricken chance folks. Even all the expert wave counters that always deal in the price of an asset class, didn’t see the big bull market coming.  So, are all the wave analysts going to see this next bear market coming? Sure a few will, but many still have super bullish wave counts. They will constantly flip numbers and letters around, add a bunch of question marks to the charts, and then they can always claim to be right. The Nasdaq has squeezed out another new record high while the DJIA is heading south. Talk about marching to a different drummer or what! It will clear up, but that still may take some time.

Buying on any “Dip” is going to be financial suicide if we don’t understand the size of the “Big Dip” that is coming.  Any market can correct back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, and can even go lower like the DJIA did in 2009.  The only so called safe trade would be if we catch wave “A” in Primary degree. By that time the DJIA bears will be in a trap and any rally will force them to change directions. There is nothing as powerful as when the entire herd has to change directions, as they scramble to get out of their short positions.

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SIL 2011-2018 Review: Bullish Or Bearish?

The majority are focusing their attention on gold or GLD. SIL is the ETF for silver miners.  From the 2011 peak SIL transformed into a bearish phase that very few people expected. In 2011 extreme silver optimisium forecast for a $200 silver price and all the analysts agreeded that much higher silver prices were still to come. This SIL market made liars out of all the experts as it didn’t care about any bullish analysts opinions.

Right from the 2011 top, wave structures did not fit well into any pure declining impulse pattern. At that time I was not very confident in counting down diagaonal wave structures. Also the 2011 peak was about as clear as Mississippi mud at that time as I was still counting everything in GSC and SC degree. Virtually every counter rally we see the media also turned bullish, yet it didn’t last and then it resumed its larger trend. Diagonals are counted just like the book says in the description for ending diagoanls, when room allows.

Of course the 2016 bullish phase changed all that. Or did it? SIL exploded and soared close to $55 and peaked in early August 2016. This fantastic bullish run came well within my wave 2, which is an instant confirmation that we are dealing with diagoanl wave structures.  All this matters little if we are not firm in the understanding what the wave position the 2011 peak really is. If we believe that 2011 is a Cycle degree wave three peak, then it is much easier to know what we’re supposed to look for. Since we are working 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, then we know that a Cycle degree zigzag will eventually have to form.

There is no way that the 2016 peak was a pure impulse, and even if it was, the correction to it would be far from over. During the bearish phase SIL has made two lower lows, while gold stock ETFs have only made one. Most analysts ignore all that but when you are counting out waves we have to look for these small differences all the time.

It’s a good time to run a couple of parallel trend lines and they point to a possible down side price target. If SIL so much as spikes a penny lower, than the 2016 low, then the entire  bull market will be confirmed as being nothing but a bear market rally. I call them fake bull markets as well. It’s the job of the markets to fool as many participants and observers as it can, with SIL doing a fantastic job. SIL also rolled around the $55, and $34 price levels which are Fibonacci numbers. The next Fibonacci numbers lower would be $21 and $13, with the $14.50 price level as being the record low to beat. Each single Fibonacci number is a 61% crash, so any expected decline still to come sure can chop our trading accounts down to size.

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Crude Oil Intraday Crash Update.

Since the peak last month nothing that has happened indicates a correction has taken place except for small counter rallies.  (Mini bear market rallies)  We have to understand any bear market rally is they will determine if we should hold a bullish position or get the hell out. There is nothing more horrifying than think about a bull market that some say is going to $300, but it turns and crashes to $40 or even lower. Bear market rallies in any degree always retrace themselves, so there is no sense in staying, as bear market rallies make for excelent short bets.  The trick is spotting a bear market rally before all others do and I will keep trying to do that as we all need that information early.

Most of the oil bulls do not understand the concept of a bear market rally as they treat anything that goes up as a real bull market. In commodaties and oil specifically is in a big Cycle degree wave 4 bear market, with most of them being giant zigzags. It may take the rest of the summer to play out so expect some wild counter rallies like we just had.

I switched mywave count to another wave 1-2 in Minute degree but ultimatley we need 5 waves down in Minor degree or one zigzag in Minor degree. Any zigzag could form where the “B”wave looks just like another 4th wave rally. These types of rallies would be very hard to spot if we’re not looking for them.  All this trade war rhetoric is just to much for the oil bulls to handle. Maybe $50 billion worth of duties, the markets could handle, but $200 billion, was just too much.

Fear drives the commodities, not some logical fundamental explanation why oil is going up or down.  Sure I can see another world oil glut coming up, but we know that oil gluts are very bullish for the price of oil. The last record oil bear market low was about $28, which technically should be breached again, if the 4th wave peak is on its true location.

My wave counts may make little sense to some, but my oil wave count starts with the 2008 peak. This makes the oil bear market about 10 years old so far. Thinking in 4-5-month steps, we could see September/October with another new record low.  I may be very bearish on oil, but I assure you I will turn very bullish after this 5th wave plays out.

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DJIA Daily Chart Update: Are The Bears Back In Control?

This DJIA chart has not produced any new record highs in well over 4 months and it even has a lower wave 2 then the SP500 has. I treat this low as a running zigzag as they do happen. I stay away from calling anything “truncated” but a low wave 2 means that the market is more bearish than the majority think. The big clue that the last few months is a bearish rally, is the very fact that the rally produced an extremely choppy pattern. This tells me the rally is going against a larger trend, which would be down.

The Cycle degree wave 3 peak is still holding and hopefully it will not be knocked off, as I want my Cycle degree sequences to last for the rest of stock market history.  Eventually, we will get a major stock market bottom that will be another fantastic buying opportunity. Of course the majority will never get it, as they will be ill prepared in what to do when it does hit a major low again.  Wave 3 can produce declines that will stun the majority like dear caught in the headlights. In this case its more like the “bulls” are caught in the headlights as the bears return to shred this bull market psychology once more.

Recently one of my DJIA posts has been published in Market Forum and this is the link to it. This is all very good exposure and I thank the author for posting it.

When this market goes down, many other asset classes will also get dragged down,  just like what happen in 2008. Needless to say I’m bearish until such a time a counter rally is going to be big enough, to force players to reverse their positions.  I’m sure that in the future we will get price forecasts claiming that the DJIA  is going to 5000, 3000 or even 1000.

When all the analysts are in concensus, then this is when the markets will turn and go in the opposite direction. When the DJIA 5000 price forecasts are broadcast far and wide, then it’s a pretty safe bet to call for DJIA to hit 45,000. Mind you it may take until 2029 to play out.

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SP500 Bull Market Or Bear Rally?

Getting tired of this so called “bull market” yet?  This market has been keeping us confused as to what direction it really wants to go. Price is never going to tell us anything useful  becuase if it did, every average Joe and Jane investor would have been buying everything in sight at the 2009 bottom.

Many think this is a bull market because its still  going up in price. The sad fact remains is that there are always bear market rallies at every degree level. If the experts don’t know the diffrenece with a Minor degree counter rally, then they sure are not going to know when a  Primary degree bear market rally is in progress.

The rally for the last 2 months has been frusturating to say the least, but what stands out is that this rally is going against the bigger trend.  I just had to draw in the wedge which is another very useful indicator when used at the right time.  A potential “C” wave bullish phase could be finishing off, so investors are going to find out the hard way about the effects of a bear market rally once it resumes its bigger trend.

There is always a chance one more dash to the upside will happen, but I think this market is running on fumes. The 2550 price level doesn’t have a chance of holding, as any wave 3 declince will just rip through that support range with ease. To confirm any Minor degree run be it up or down, this wave two peak needs 5 waves down in Minute degree to help us identify the location we think we are in.

Not until we get another push to the downside, investors will remain oblivious to the depth of this impending bear market.  If we don’t suspect that a Cycle degree correction is coming then all support forecasts will be useless to say the least. We have to be open to the fact that any opening zigzag requires a 5-3-5 run so we have a long way to go. Another 4 months or so will get us to a potential bottom by September or October. Any counter rally at that time will also produce another fake bull market.  It may seem a bit long in this counter rally but I have no doubt that this could all pick up in speed in a dramatic fashion.

As each stage happens then they all help in pointing us to where we are in the bigger picture. Talking about any move early is the key because after it happens, its pretty useless information. Fears of a depression will be in the news but markets do the opposite of fundamentals like they did in March of 2009.

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Canadian Dollar Daily Chart Bear Attack Update

At the peak in September 2017, analysts hyped our Canadian dollar along with the oil price.  After the “C” wave bullish phase completed, it also completed a wave 4 peak in Intermediate degree.  At this time our CAD has not developed any pattern that shows us that a bull market is coming. In fact the exact opposite is happening. The experts have little knowledge of the damage that can be done, when we are bullish but the opposite happens. They have no idea what a bear market rally is or what has to happen after. My description is that bear market rallies always retrace their entire move, which happens at all degree levels.

Now that they think fundamantals have worsened and I’m sure they will switch to a bearish mood as this bearish phase progresses.  Fundamentals are lagging conditions to price and sometimes it could take years for the fundamentals to catch-up to the price.  My parrell lines are based on the top two points and it gives us a rough idea when to expect another big counter rally.

Maybe at the “B” wave low we could see some short term support but in the end our CAD must completely retrace its entire bullish move, that started at the early 2016 lows.  Our Canadian dollar is not the only bear market rally, as I have many that I’m working on.

Our September high was in Intermediate degree, so once this all finishes all my CAD wave counts will jump up by a minimum of one degree. Most of the time it will be a two-degree change. This can still be a few years away so don’t get any ideas that we are going to blast off in some 5 wave bull market in Primary degree.

Any Primary degree 5 wave sequence will not happen until after any Cycle degree 4th wave bottom has been hit! The trade wars may sound real but a lot of damage can be caused by some imaginary dragon just the same.

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Gold Daily Chart: Bear Attack Update!

One thing I love about the waves in gold is that the have the ability to always move against the majority, when they least expect it to. Is this gold crash going to be called an unexpected correction, or was the entire move just another bear market rally? If we look back to the late 2016 low, followed by a rally. This bullish phase has so many overlapping waves that it is hard to find a single good impulse wave structure.  This type of pattern is what we would get when an asset class runs against its own larger trend. I’ve seen wave counts where the wave analsyts  turn all these waves into pure impulse waves, and therefore forecast a big bull market yet to come. Gold sure looks like it wants to head south not north so my bearish outlook remains.

This bullish pattern above can fit into a triangle which ended at the magic number of $1360. Any triangle in a “B” wave rally is very bearish as a “C” wave crash should follow.  The top resistance line also produced at least 3 H&S patterns.  Since my triangle is a Minor degree triangle then at the next big low, my degree level has to go up by at least one degree.

Most of the time it would be a two-degree change which will be the case for gold. Sure we have a long way to go, but gold can move $100-$200 with little effort. In silver this “B” wave is much lower and just as distorted.  For the entire 2017 bullish phase to be confirmed as a bear market rally, gold would still have to crash below $1120.

Last week the commercial traders added to thier short positions which is not a bullish indicator but a very bearish one.  If oil keeps on crashing like it has been doing, then I don’t see any reason why the Gold/Oil ratio will not drag gold down with it.  In any potential mini pani,  investors could end up selling everything in a desperate “dash for cash” once they realize that the gold bull market is crumbling all around them.

This could take until the September, October time period for all this to play out, so patience is the key this summer.

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Amazon: Price Still Heading To The Moon

It seems Amazon is impervious to any meaningful price correction. The record high so far has hit $1724 and has backed off a bit last week. Sure I would love to see a good correction as I think its high time for one to happen. We also know that any extreme can keep on pushing higher until another new extreme is reached. This extreme may be a Cycle degree top , but I will stay away from any huge moves until it happens. AMZN could just keep on bumping and grinding along, until some fundamental catalyst sets if off.   President Trump ‘s trade war may have unsuspecting consequences on Amazon.

Only the rich can play this Amazon game as average Joe can’t afford enough stocks to make a difference. If he does, then wouldn’t it be smart to sell high priced stocks to those rich people that can afford them. Buying from the poor and then selling to the rich is what buying low and selling high is all about. 😛

My top trend line might have more meaning than the bottom trend line has, but if a Cycle degree correction is coming then the bottom trend line may not hold.

There are a few stocks like Amazon, Apple, Tesla that seem to defy gravity and they need to get hit hard once the Nasdaq bubble starts to burst.

Back in April 2018, I show the  Gold/Amzn ratio hit 1.09:1, today this ratio is now 1.34:1. It now takes 1.34 gold ounces to buy just one Amazon stock which should also establish another new Gold/Amazon ratio extreme.

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USO “C” Wave Bull Market Review

This is more about looking back to see the “C” wave bull market that the majority of us missed. If we use $9 as our average entry price then the $14 price level would be a great exit point. Selling at the $14.50 price level is next to impossiable, as you have to be a real contrarian to sell when all the experts are beating the bullish drums.

Once I multiplied $9 by 1.618 it pointed to a $14.56 price level where USO reversed its trend. Of course the experts are still looking for much higher oil prices when they keep calling this a “correction”.  If you read any analsyts slightest suggestion of a correction, you know that those analysts have no idea that USO is just in a bear market rally.

This “C” wave  is one move in Minor degree, which works perfectly with a 61% gain. It also measures the length of a one degree move.

Not too many experienced traders can stay in a position to ride up a 5 wave sequence in any degree, especially if you are trying to trade oil units in the Forex accounts. Every time this chart dips panic ensues as analysts drum up the bearish news. Stops get hit and when that happens the markets can leave without you.

Trying to hit a 5 wave run before it starts is the key as these 5 wave runs is what the EWP is all about. Bear market rallies may not make any sense if we don’t understand that bear market rallies can be huge and even many years long. With any bear market rally there are “No” support levels to consider as we always have to ask, “Support for what?”.  Any expression about a bear market rally in Elliott Wave terms, means complete retracement of the entire bullish phase. Any return to its bearish phase USO must travel well below the $9 price level, but then we would also be getting close to where any inverse stock split can happen. The reversals I look for are the ones that force all the players going in one direction, to switch and then go in the opposite direction.

Last week I initiated a small USO short position which turned green the following day. I prefer trading ETFs but my US funds are limited so in this case I can only take a very small token short position.

If we look closley at this USO peak we can see that a “Gap” has opened, which I think it will stay open for a few years.

Having one gap indicator already is a big plus, as we know that in the future that this gap will get closed. The only problem is that USO combines several other futures contracts which distorts wave counts and produces the slippage between contracts.

I do not give investment advice but I do like to speculate. If the holders of USO can’t escape a bull trap then they are going to get hit hard, and eventullay will be forced out. Very few trading or investment accounts in the world can handle any drawdown from $14 back to $9 which works out to the same as $13 down to $8 would. In other words a 61% crash sure can chop up any trading account, in very short order.

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RBOB Gasoline Intraday Crash Update

I don’t think we need any trend lines when we look at this chart as anyone can see this basic intraday trend. What is much harder to understand is the diffrence between a bull market and a big bear market rally.  Chances are good that another wave 1-2 has finished and we are heading down to a potential wave 3 in Minute degree. I believe all the oil related asset classes have been in a big bear market rally and what gasoline is doing is just resuming the bigger trend.  All the forecasting in the world is irrelivant when experts take a big bear market rally and turn it into a huge bull market. The experts have forecast much higher prices at every major top, but yet the markets does the opposite and crashes.

This may be very hard to understand but its very normal and I know that my bullish wave counts must also come to an end.  Applying stock market thinking to commodities will not work as commodaties come from the diagonal family of patterns. The more choppy the charts are, the less wave analysts will tackle them. So far gasoline futures show a pretty clean impulse decline, which is rather rare.

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Gold Crashes Joining Oil in the Decline.

Gold refuses to soar as forecast by the “Crystal ball readers of Wall Street”. Instead gold crashes right along with oil this morning. Sure, the $1300 price level had importance but now it’s more like a major resistance price level. The markets love even numbers so gold $1200 could be the next even number price target. Gold still has to retrace two sets of previous lows before it even gets close to $1200. By then anything can still happen.  Gold needs for the US dollar to turn real bearish, to provide the push in gold prices.

This has not happen regardless of what the gold bulls have been forecasting. When an asset class moves in a direction we do not expect, then we don’t throw out the idealized road map, but must take a new reading in where we think we are. Gold looks more like a triangle pattern but it does not fit into a 4th wave. It works as another zigzag decline, but my degree level still may need adjusting.   As we can see gold can crash dramatically when it wants to, and you can bet someone will always blame some fundamental news why gold also crashed.  These gold bearish moves is not a surprise if we look at gold as just one big bear market rally. Even gold could have established it’s 2018 record high with gold $1375.

A move like this reverberates through many other asset classes, so it’s never just about one asset class, but many of them will react during the same time.

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Crude Oil Intraday Crash Update

Since late last night oil topped after which it produced a great swan dive.  Any asset class that was this choppy can always have a counting issue and therefore go higher than expected, but only time will tell if this crude oil counter rally is finished.  A move where crude oil falls below $64 will settle that argument, as bear market rallies are always completely retraced. The story that Europe is awash with crude oil was interesting.  They say, “It’s an unusual occurrence”. Europe is just hedging their bets on buying cheap US crude and not relying on Russian or mideast oil. It’s the perception of excess oil (glut) that can turn oil bulls into oil bears instantly.

We are going to get many more of these fake bullish moves, and each one will produce excitment thinking the worst is over for the oil correction. In the eyes of the public anything that goes up is in a bull market, but from an Elliott Wave perspective we can have very large bear market rallies.  My big bear market wave count starts way back with the 2008 peak, as we must never lose focus from where this WTI crude oil wave count comes from.  I’m sure we will see another counter rally in the next few trading days, but if the rally is finished, then no new highs should get established.

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USO United States Oil Fund Review

This USO Oil fund is not something you want to invest in. Even speculating in it will just frusturate you due to the slippage in the charts. About the only thing USO is good for is to short when all the bulls are confinced oil is going to the moon. The 5 1/2 year sideways market does not reflect the futures market one bit, even though I entertained the idea of a triangle in oil futures as well.  This is a very popular fund so many players are going to suffer huge losses if they don’t get out.

It contains not just WTI crude oil but contains heating oil futures, gasoline futures and even natural gas futures, so I can understand why this USO fund does not track oil with any consistancy.

Even the rally after the 2017 bottom was very weak, compared to what the oil futures did do. The entire move from the 2016 bottom looks like an inverted zigzag, which in Elliott wave speak means a bear market rally.  All USO ever has to do is fall to a new record lows, which will confirm that our present rally has indeed been a bear market rally.

In this case it’s an Intermediate degree bear market rally, which also gives us the clue that the next huge bull market will be at least one degree higher.  Two degrees higher and we would be looking at a Cycle degree bull move!

My records show that USO has not recorded an inverse stock split, but it is something that may happen if USO ever approaches the $5-7 price level.

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The Euro Takes A Beating!

This morning the Euro spiked up and then rapidly reverse and then plunged. That would be a surprise if we were very bullish on the Euro already. I have been bearish on the Euro for sometime already so this dip is no real surprise. To confirm that the Euro rally was just another fake, it would have to retrace the entire May bottom.  We see bear market rallies all the time at the smaller degree levels, but happens at a smaller scale, also happens on the bigger degree scales.

The US dollar also reacted, so it’s not an isolated Euro event.  I doubt that Italy has enough clout to bring the Euro down, but the analysts are determined to give you a reason for the decline if it’s right or not!  The world would end if analysts down find you a reason for every little price move in any direction.   I won’t be satisfied until that May 29th low is completely retraced.

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NASDAQ Hits New Intraday Record High!

This morning the Nasdaq pushed to a new world record high at just over 7301. The way the Nasdaq has been soaring the bullish traders are seeing some gains. To capture those gains traders have to sell or close off their trades. Of course the markets will do it for them as they will panic once a reversal starts to take place. We need more to tell us that this party is over. That may take until the February bottom of 6300 is completely retraced, as some little correction will not do anything.

I have to keep my updates short this morning but will try to update more later today.

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Crude Oil Intraday Topping Pattern Review

This morning crude oil created another higher high. There can always be another spike higher but this rally sure looks like it is fighting the bigger trend. Over lapping wave structures is the first clue, and a wedge is another. You usually don’t get one without the other as most bear market rallies can turn into wedges. The “C” wave part is all diagonal as it started near the bottom.  The only way we can see these small zigzags is with a 30 minute scale chart.  Anything bigger and you would not see many of these small zigzags.

The wedge looks impressive but we can dream up wedges just about anywhere if we are very biased. I believe there is more downside to come this summer so jumping on the oil bandwagon could overload it at a time, when the wheels are ready to fall of.

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BOTZ Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF

Since the media is always hyping the AI world, I decided to look up potential ETFs that can help us track the world of robots and artificial inteligence. This is just a general interest post as I will not track every little wave that may or may not happen. The only thing BOTZ is tracking so far is the general index, as it has separated away from the Nasdaq  by about 5 months already.  If the general markets switch back to a bearish mood then I see no reason why BOTZ should soar. BOTZ may also help in being a leading indicator .

The entire bullish phase could get completely retraced, and it would be financial suicide to buy into this ETF thinking your buying on a dip! We could end up with a really big, “Dip”, so waiting for that time will be critcal.

This is only a general posting and by no means a buying suggestion. Investing and speculation are two different things as investors always maintain their bullish mood.  A person that “may” short this ETF is not an investor, they are speculators. For those that don’t know what “shorting”means, is that you can make money on the trip down. A speculator is free to play both directions so fundamentals mean little to them.

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Crude Oil Intraday Bullish Update

Crude oil has been in a rally but this rally is so choppy that oil looks like it still is in a counter trend rally.  We may still have more upside but this rally should end and then resume its bigger bearish phase.  The December contract is still $1.21 lower than the June contract and over time I would expect that to change which could still take many months to switch.  The December contract is also very busy so I may switch to the December contract soon.

Panics happen when a small group sees the same thing at the same time, and any unexpected inventory number can do that.  Markets will always do the opposite of what ever trend the majority have established, as the majority can never win at this game. The majority never practice buying low and then selling high becuase they only love it when things go up. If not enough bulls keep buying then sooner or later this crude oil bullish phase will have a hardtime in staying with this northerly direction.

Those traders that can play both ways care little about fundamentals as they only care of what their TA is telling them. On a short scale we could also be facing an inverted wedge which is also very bearish.  Overall I remain bearish until a correction completes that will push oil into a new bull market phase.  So far this idea is pretty remote but by the fall the bearish phase will show itself to more participants.

I see the $40-$45 price level as a good resting spot but if any rally is still choppy, then even the $40 price level will not hold.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Bull Market Update

There is a little over 1 week left in the June contracts, after which it all moves to the September contract months.  This is the first chart for September and all the others will also follow. Since the April bottom the SP500 has had a bullish trend, but the shape of this trend sure looks diagonal in nature, which usally means the trend is going “against” the larger trend.  For now I will keep working a potential wave two rally which is starting to come up to some strong resistance levels. 2815 is not too far away which can get hit in a mini flash move to the upside.

That may be wishfull thinking as this is all taking too long to play out. The big stocks inside the SP500 are keeping it all going as some of the “FANG” stocks seemed to be doing the heavy lifting.  The big short bets against Tesla have been unsuccesful at this time. In the short term the SP500 can keep on rolling along.  Overall stocks have been ignoring all the fundamantal news as they just don’t care. If some “bad” news comes out and the markets don’t like it then we know we are over on the big bearish side already.

The VIX may also still have to hit $12 so that also can keep this bullish mood alive.  It may take a drop well below the 2540 price level before the investing herd wakes up to a potential bear market.

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TGOD And TGOD.WT Bearish Move Review

When an asset class goes vertical like TGOD has done after its IPO, then the people that were in the original IPO would be very rich! There is one big trick to all this as all investors have not made a single dime, until they have sold out. There were well over 2 million shares traded today and I bet many of the IPO investors are dumping to lock in their profits. The worst thing we can do is chase this bull market, but to wait until a good correction is visable.

I try to avoid single stock commentary but I can’t help it.  🙂 I show a “B” wave top in Minor degree as it syncronized well wth the peak in HMMJ.  TGOD could crash so deep that it will shock most participating speculators.  TGOD could retrace its entire IPO move if we are close to matching the HMMJ ETF pattern. No Price support is going to help us here if a 100% retracement is going to happen.

This is the warrant chart  for TGOD and the “B”wave top is just s reference point to the HMMJ pattern. TGOD.WT could fall well below $1.00 before it could be ready to bottom.

I’m sure TGOD is not inside the HMMF ETF, but it can still act much like HMMJ. Only time will tell, as to how well they will syncronize with each other. As far as I can tell from the HMMJ ETF is that we are correcting, but not finished at this point. Once I see a sufficient correction has taken place then a full set of 5 waves up should follow.  (5 waves in Minor degree)  Any trader should not miss 5 waves up in Minor degree, as that is the most exciting thing you can ever experience.

We are going to get swamped with good buying opertunities, but there are only a few that know how to catch a, “falling knife”, in a  “C” wave crash!

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Euro Intraday Rally Update

Short term the Euro could still make a higher high, but longer term it should resume its bigger bearish trend. I would be a lot more bullish on the Euro if it were not for the commercial traders short positions. I kept this Euro wave count like my previous Euro posting, but the Euro may not push to the next higher high. The Euro may turn south sooner than we think and resume its bearish trend.

With all the risk factors increasing around the world we would expect the gold price to soar, but in order for gold to soar the Euro needs to soar as well.  Even our CAD is getting beat up and is still pointing south,  so I don’t see the two main inverse currencies supporting a big gold bullish move at this time.

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US Dollar Intraday Bearish Action Update

The US dollar has been standing up very well recently but and correction has not gone deep enough to make a difference. The rally in the last few days also has been very choppy, so this sure works as still part of the counter rally. I relabeled the top with an “A” wave but this may just be a temporary thing until I eliminate more alternate wave counts.

There still should be a very bullish move coming as the entire USD may still be part of a bigger bullish phase.  The Euro should act inversley to the US dollar, but otherwise I remain bearish on the Euro.

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Bitcoin Intraday Crash Update

On June 7th I posted a very bearish Bitcoin wave count which did not disapoint,  as Bitcoin crashed leaving a big gap in its wake.  This is actually the first big gap  in Bitcoin that I know of. The general guideline that 90% of all gaps get filled, should not be taken serious with Bitcoin. This gap may close in a flash or remain open for years and even never get closed.   It sure looks like the once famous mania has now been replaced with fear as Crypto hackers and scam artist take their toll on the bulls to muster a sustained return to a real bull market.

Every market goes up or down and just because it goes up does not mean it’s in a bull market .  My wave counts are Cosmetic and should not be trusted for any reason as the big decline has not been clear enough the way I like it. I don’t speculate in any Bitcoins except some collector coins I sell to friends or give to family as birthday gifts. The same mania that happened in Bitcoin also happened in Marijuana stock ETFs like HMMJ. We can count Bitcoin waves until all combinations are exhausted and yet Bitcoin could flate-line and never mount a sustained bull market again.  In order for any rally to be in a full blown bull market, Bitcoin would have to travel well above any $19,000 price level. Just like Tulips we may never see that Bitcoin extreme price level again.

I believe Bitcoin still has to fall well below the $6000 price level and many are starting to echo those same sentiments.

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DJIA 1977-2018 Review

Chances are very good that you could search the entire Internet for a wave count that dosen’t have a bunch of indicators on it. Wave analysts use smoke and mirror to baffle us with bullshit.  The problem with modern high degree wave counting is that they miss too many bull markets.  The main reason that the majority of wave counting experts are in SC or GSC degree is because they do not look for wave extensions. If we go back to 1977 I show three sets of wave 2 bottoms each one, being one degree lower in sequence. This produced a massive extension until the 2000 peak.

I was still a GSC degree wave counter in 2000 which forced me to flip numbers and letters around like I flip hamburgers on a grill. Every time we lay down a number or letter we are also moving forwards or backwards in time.  Imagine how much time difference there is between an Intermediate degree wave 3 in 2000 and a GSC degree wave 3 for the same peak. With a difference of 4 degree levels we could be early by 100 years or more.

They are calling the 2009 bear market the,”Great Recession”, This is milder sounding than the “Great Depression”. Depressions happen in large degree wave 2 crashes, but most of them happened in times where there were no safety nets. Today the government can just auto deposit funds to the poor and negate or buffer any depression. When we look at the DOW at the 1932 low, you would never know that a depression existed at all. Markets crashed into the 1932 bottom after which the stock market produced a 5 year bull market.  At that time it was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of March, 13, 1930 that killed the markets. Does this sound familiar with the trade wars going on in 2018? We might get the “Great Recession 2.0” but we should not get a depression, at the next Cycle degree wave 4 bottom. By the time they do call it a “Depression” it will be over, and Cycle degree wave 5 will be underway. This is when 5 waves up in Primary degree will be very important to understand, and what that 5 wave sequence will terminate at.

We are still years away from any major corrective bottom as solar cycle #24 has to end first. Many of market crashes have happened just a year or so before the next solar cycle started, so this could take us until 2021 to realize.

Every bull market comes to an end so if they think markets can stay  in a permanent high they we are making a big mistake. Investors just love to buy high, as they sure hate stocks when they are at major lows. This will never change as human emotions take over and all logic reasoning is thrown out the window.

The Gold/Dow ratio is at 19.5:1 with 17:1 already being expensive.  In May 2018 this ratio was 18.63:1 so the DOW got a bit more expensive since then.

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Euro Intraday Rally Update

The Euro has been in a rally but there still may be one upside move left to go, before it resumes it’s bearish trend. I have just started a wave 1-2 count in Minute degree, which would extend wave 3 in Minor degree.  The Euro could keep right on heading south from here,  just like the US dollar may have one more small leg down, before it also starts to turn back into it’s bullish trend. Even with this Euro rally and US dollar decline, gold has moved little. Once the Euro resumes it’s bearish trend then I can see gold head south as well.   Commercials are still net short the Euro so until that changes, I will remain bearish on the Euro.

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Bitcoin Bear Market Review

This is the general Bitcoin index and only moves during the day. Back in February 2018 Bitcoin bottomed and then rallied to just about $12,000. That didn’t last too long before Bitcoin prices started to head south again. Bitcoin bottomed again in April before it rallied back up in early May. Since then Bitcoin seems to have started another decline that sure looks like it’s not finished. My wedge may not mean much but what are the chances that Bitcoin will cross the bottom wedge line before it ever crosses the top wedge line?

I think Bitcoin has to fall well below the $6000 price level and even then there is only a slim chance that Bitcoin could morph into a huge bull market anytime soon. At $5000 Bitcoin would be close to about a 71% decline which a pretty normal bear market decline. That still doesn’t mean much, as Bitcoin could flatline driving all investors away due to boredom.

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GDXJ Gold Stock 2011-2018 Review

 

It took me a long time to count out the GDXJ bear market, but only until I concentrated on diagonal wave structures did it start to make sense.  I thought we would get a zigzag bull market but that has no materilzed by any streach of the imagination.  The fast 2016 move up  has been followed by a bearish phase that looks nothing like a correction that has finished.  Many of the Gold stock ETFs I track had new record lows in early 2018. This is well over a year where gold stocks are out of sync with each other.

In the 2008 gold stock crash, they were not this far out of sync as they are now. Even though gold has shot up a bit in the last few days, these ETFs have been rather subdude.

The big question is if the 2016 rally, is not just another bear market rally!  Gold analysts have been very bullish but yet gold stocks seemed to be ignoring the bullish rhetoric.

One undeniable fact is that all bear market rallies get completley retraced, and about the only way we can confirm this is when it happens. Support means little as it’s always a question, “Support for what?” Support for the next leg up, or just temporay support before the next trip down?

The straight move up from the 2016 bottom is typical for a bear market rally so until this proves out I will remain bearish on gold stock ETFs.  I own one gold stock and a gold stock fund that pays some dividends which I will keep, otherwise I have been short several CAD gold stock ETFs and have no plans on closing them off.

From what I see may happen, is once this new low materilizes then we will be swamped with good buying opportunities, so those that have a bit of cash might be lucky enought to take advantage of it. I think we should end on a Primary degree “A” wave, which should be followed by another huge bullish move in 2019.

What this gold stock rally has done, is get more people excited and involved so when the next bullish phase comes along these added investors will push the markets much further north than anticipated.

The Gold/Gdxj ratio is sitting at 39.36:1 which has been about the same for most of April and May 2018. I would rather see it get closer to 49:1 before GDXJ may look cheap again.

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Intraday Crude Oil Rally Update

Declining inventories is the reason why oil has rallied. Does the news automatically reverse a bearish phase? Highly unlikely as even President Trump  wants OPEC to increase its production.  This rally has all the charatristicsof an inverted zigzag which could be just another 1-2 wave.  There may be one more higher high but then we should see another reversal happening soon.  I’ve moved my degree level up again by one degree, and only time will tell if I have to adjust again.

Many experts are gungho on oil prices, but only when the price of oil goes up. When the price of oil starts to dip again, the analysts will bring out all the news why they think oil prices will go lower.  Analysts go with the flow, but in reality this is worthless information when we see the action in the charts.

Until oil shows a very good sizable correction then I may turn bullish. This may not happen until oil falls well below $50. $40-$45 would be a very good base for a turning or just a long resting spot.  The entire oil move since the 2015 bottom looks like one wild inverted zigzag, which are bear market rallies. This happens at all degree of trends with the above chart being a small example what small bear market rallies look like.  We had a Primary degree bear market rally which fooled the majority thinking it’s going to $200 again, yet the oil market crashed from $115 to $28. In just a few short years, the entire bullish phase was retraced. Sure oil created an “A,B,C” move but I think the Cycle degree dip has not finished by a long shot.

This morning the Gold/Oil ratio sits at 19:1 which is not all that cheap when we use gold as money. We want this ratio number to reverse and expand where oil can buy many barrels of oil.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Bullish Phase Update

While a few of the other indices have scored new record highs, the DJIA and SP500 have been lagging, It’s not that I’m looking for the SP500 to catch up, but if the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 correct the SP500 would also correct. Since April the SP500 has been in choppy rise that has little to do with an impulse, but it can still work as a “C” wave bullish  move.  Short term I’m not happy with any wave count I might come up with in the indices, so I don’t fill out all the little waves as the bigger degree level is more important.

Since February this bullish phase is starting to last longer than what I would expect out of a minor degree move, but that is what we have to deal with.  The VIX has also crushed to new lows with  some analsyts being so bullish on stocks they sound like the VIX is going to zero.  All this could still carry on until the March peak has been exceeded. When it ends all support will break down, but investors just love to buy high and then sell lower in a panic to get out. Buyers keep coming out of the woodwork, and investing into the peak of  world record high stock markets. FOMO is the big reason but being bullish when the planet is bullish will just give us the same results as the majority get.

A short term bearish move is not enough for a Cycle degree correction to be completed, and markets never stay at “Permanent highs”. Sooner or later the BS, (Bullish Sentiment) will hit the fan as bears always attack from above and it usually comes as a surprise.  Bull markets are the breeding grounds for bear markets, so I see it as just a matter of time before  any bullish phase is finishing.

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HMMJ, Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF And TGOD IPO

HMMJ has gone higher than anticipated so that calls for a review and come up with a better fitting wave count.  I choked once I looked at the bear market as a potential triangle. We should be getting close to finishing the “D” wave in Minor degree.  We should get another zigzag decline that may look completely different than the other 4. We are still missing the “E” wave.  I could be completley wrong but this sideways bear market could be in a 4th wave correction. It could take the rest of the year to play out escepcially if we get many diagonal wave structures. So far this ETF is not leveraged so the wave structure may also be easier to count, once we think we have another good location.

 

Green Organic Dutchman Holdings Ltd. (TOR)

TGOD is a single stock which is only a little more than a month old. One thing is certain the stock has gone vertical and my bet is that a wicked correction is comming. I would like to see it correct big enough so we can have something to count. Right now TGOD has soared its entire IPO time with HMMJ, so a correction in both can happen. HMMJ’s rally started in April 2018 while TGOD started in May.  It would be something if the present TGOD peak is also a “D” wave peak.

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