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Platinum Weekly Chart Bear Market Review

This weekly chart of platinum is only about $28 away from hitting another major bear market low. Any price below $760 would confirm that the big bear market which started in 2008, is still alive and well. Little over a 10-year bear market and it’s still not finished. Bear markets don’t stop on a dime, even though at times it might look like it. This bearish phase could still twist and turn just to frustrate the hell out any wave analyst.

The best scenario would be a huge spike to the downside clearly visible on the bigger time series charts. In other words, this bearish move can still do a lot of damage to a bullish position. Commercials are still net short here, so I would like to see those numbers swing the opposite way before we get closer to a bottom.

I think my last Market Vane Report came in on the 12th and it shows a new record low amount of bulls present at 20%. This is the lowest reading in “All” of 35 different asset classes that make up the report. The 24-month low bullish number was 16%, so it will be interesting to see if 16% gets beat again. The lower the number, the more bulls there will be that can come back and drive a new bullish phase.

The bearish phase from the 2016 peak to the first 2018 peak is the same pattern as gold and silver have, except gold is the only asset that ended pointing up. Gold’s price action is brainwashing us because many mainstream analysts cover gold, but platinum is pretty well ignored.

I have to scan many mining blogs to catch the intensity of the platinum news, which I don’t have to do with gold. Any business related blog will have gold commentary.

 

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Silver Weekly Chart Death Cross Update.

This weekly chart shows the 2011 peak which was an insane mania peak ending 31 years after the 1980 silver mania peak. Crazy peaks like this do not correct in just a few short years but can take many years. 2011 also was an ending to zigzag peak in Primary degree, and topping it off with my Cycle degree wave 3. We are now a little over 7 years old in this bearish phase, and even if another major bottom materializes it could still take until 2021 to complete. 2011+30 years could give us a new Supercycle degree peak in 2041!  Once the Cycle degree 4th wave bottom becomes more certain, we can take that date and subtract that from 2041. I have counted out several silver bear markets that have lasted about 13 years, which would give us a bottom closer to 2024, leaving us with a potential 17-year bull market.

This is all fine and dandy but there is a big catch! This impending bull market will be in the shape of another huge zigzag in Primary degree.

In the last few days, silver has peaked and has now started to correct, depending on what you believe in. A true bull market cannot let silver crash below $13.50 which is only $2.06 away from doing so. On the daily chart, there is a huge gap still open that won’t get close until the $14.80 price level has been hit. This may supply short term support but if this so-called rally is a bear market rally then a new record low silver price will come.

The Death Cross on this weekly chart happened back in July 2018, with the daily chart Death Cross happening soon once silver gets near the gap.

Also, the monthly Death Cross is now having a big Valintine’s smooching feast as the 200-day and 50-day MA are kissing. The short version is there is no Golden Cross insight anywhere!

The silver COT report below shows commercials in the highest short position in close to a year so that reading does not entice me to stay in any long positions.

 

Friday night will give us some updated COT data but commercials would have to shift dramatically, and make that big red line disappear!

 

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Gold Intraday Bearish Update

In February gold has slipped back into a bearish mood now approaching the $1300 price level. $1300 is what I call a psychological price as the media picks up its commentary when this price level is getting close.  The other psychological price level is $1200. The gold analysts will go nuts if gold ever approaches $1200 again.  The question remains? Is gold in a bigger bullish phase, or was the move from $1160 just a big bear market rally?   Since the 2011 peak gold has made many bear market rallies where the majority were fooled into believing the return of the bull market.

I’m keeping my degree levels small at this time as small degree levels get trashed pretty quick, as it’s all about the process of elimination.

I would turn very bullish on gold if gold produced a big impressive spike to the downside, but gold must also display a huge zigzag or even a flat type of a crash.  It’s the end of “C” waves that do produce the huge spikes.

It looks like a nice run of 5 is starting so now its just a matter of time if another run of 5 completes. Sounds like playing cards when I talk about a run of 5, and it is. I used to play Big Bertha a lot where we always need to build runs. Even corrective waves come in runs of 5, like W, X, Y, X, Z.

Any drop in the gold price,  say from $1300 to $1200 is just, “Childs-play”, as gold can move very violently when it wants to. I also read that January gold runs don’t last all that long and even summers can be pretty boring for gold. When gold makes a run out of fear, “Safe-haven buyers rushing in”, then they can “Rush out” just as fast.

We are close to a 7-year bear market in gold so far, and I think it’s far from over. I’ve counted out 13-year bearish moves in silver several times, but that doesn’t mean it will happen this time.

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British Pound 1985-2019 Review

 

If we look back to 1985 there should be no doubt that we can see that the British Pound had a huge single spike to the downside. 1985 was an important year for many of the currencies to make major turnings. All the currencies inside the USD index act inversely, so our wave counts have to do the same thing.  Thinking upside down with the wave principle has to be pretty normal if we want a decent wave count.  The last thing I have is a decent GBP wave count.  What I want and what the market is going to give me are two different things. If the GBP gets close to the 1985 bottom will it be at a Cycle degree wave 5 bottom?  I have my doubts at this time as the 2009 bottom may be the “A” wave in Primary degree location as well.

If a new low is going to happen then a plunging zigzag could be in progress. Below the commercials have been switching to the bullish side, while the speculators have done the opposite. Speculators are believing the bearish fundamental news, as they think this bearish trend is going to continue.

All fundamentals come in the form of “news” as the government shutdown clearly demonstrated to me.

 

These visual COT reports give us an idea as shorts and longs are clearly visible. The red lines are the long positions so I would be hesitant to take any position in the short term. Brexit remains the problem and until that gets resolved the GBP could be stuck in no man’s land for a little while longer.

Last week I still received one more Market Vane sentiment report that ranged between 34%-40% bulls, which are not some readings I can jump up and down about. Now if there were only 14% bulls in the survey, then that would be a different story.  I refuse to give any long drawn out fundamental commentary as 1000’s of other analysts are paid full time to do that. Every time the GBP makes a move analysts will jump in and find you a reason why it moved.

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DJIA Intraday Update.

At this time it looks like the DJIA has peaked and the big question is are we heading into another correction or was this fantastic move just a bear market rally?  Rallies that travel at this speed always seem to run out of steam and then turn and head the opposite way. I show a Megaphone pattern which can happen in diagonal moves as well. The 4th wave rally traveling into the wave 2 positions is a dead give away that we are dealing with a diagonal run of 5 waves.

The Gold/DJIA ratio is down a bit from its extreme but yet still far too expensive. I would like to see our present Gold/DJIA ratio get chopped down to 14:1 before I get super bullish on the DJIA. Of course, many fund managers are frothing at the mouth as they, scream, “Buy the Dips”. DowJones_GoldPrice   Gives you an idea about others using the Gold/DJIA ratio over a bigger time period.

The stock market dip? Keep buying, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch

That might work for short term traders, but for a long term hold the DJIA is still going to get shredded.  If the Cycle degree peak is true, then at a bare minimum the DJIA would have to crash below 14,000. Others are as bearish as I am, and I’m sure many of the wave analysts are forecasting big bearish moves as well.

 

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Euro Monthly Chart Update

 

I’m sure the Eurozone is going to be bogged down with all sorts of fundamental problems which we here or read in the news.  The short version is “I don’t do fundamentals.”  Besides that, I don’t think a single analyst can give me a fundamental reason for each Intermediate degree or higher turning.  Forecasting a price crash to come, we know fundamentals will change, so does technical analysis change the fundamentals?

Just like the USD trend is up, the Euro is going the opposite way. Both these currencies need to travel the opposite way in order for gold to soar like they all say it will. After all gold is in a bull market right?  Since the 2008 peak, the Euro had 6 major bullish phases which all were completely retrace except for our present Euro rally.  Do you know how bullish everyone was on the Euro in 2008, yet the Euro turned and crashed?

2008 was also an important year as oil crashed as well.

Fundamentals are lagging indicators, and they mean little after every analyst on the planet is spouting the same gibberish.

Yes, the commercials are net long with their Euro positions, but they removed 5105 long contracts during the shutdown.  The speculators are bearish and last week they turned bullish as they added 9,229 contracts last week.

 

The COT report is a mixed bag and when there are no real extreme readings then I rely on my trend to give us a clue. I see the trend is still down on this monthly and even weekly charts. The wave 3-4 rally has an expanded pattern in it, which means a complete retracement to a new record low should happen. There are many expanded patterns that develop and to not look for them, will always give us a surprise.

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Solar Cycle #24 Update

 

All the investors that ignore the cycles of the sun have paid dearly in the past. The 2008 bottom and the 2018 bottom is 1o years apart but the markets crashed from 2007 to 2009.  Most professional wave analysts ignore the sun even though many studies have been conducted and posted in the EWP books.  A few years before a solar cycle hits a bottom can send the markets crashing. The start of solar cycle #24 killed all the bears, but murdered and skinned the majority of all wave counting bears! Will it happen again? I’m sure it will, as once solar cycle #25 starts to crank up, we will be in a huge bear trap the likes we have not seen since the 2009 bear trap! The housing also crashed in 2007-2009, which is already crashing, so if investors can wait out the next 2-3 years, real estate holdings will be much cheaper than they are now.

I’m going to add a “Global Warming” chart which the alarmists contradict. I’m not an expert by any means but these satellite readings offer an objective look at how the world is heating up and cooling down. Ground-based weather balloon readings confirm the satellite readings and we can only see two record highs. One in 1998 and another in 2016. In the stock bull market leading up to 2000, the global warming hype was pushed right along with the stock market hype. In other words, investors never cared about any global warming fear mongering. The idea that the Polar Vortex is caused by CO2 in our atmosphere is a joke since there isn’t a scientist that can measure the “Forcing” or leverage that CO2 has on worldwide temperatures. BTW, the last time I checked the CO2 levels it hit 411 PPM.   All our smartphones should include a CO2 analyzer then you would see how much more CO2 there really is inside any building.

Trying to reduce our carbon footprint in a world full of carbon is like trying to walk in 2 feet of snow without leaving an imprint. Combine all the governments in the world that are trying to stop a climate-changing world from getting warmer, is created to take your money with a carbon tax!  80% of the world energy needs still use fossil fuels to get food on our tables. If we suddenly stopped using fossil fuels to power the world, all our food distribution would cease and then we would see massive starvation set in very quickly. Oh, but we can move everything in an electrical world! Good luck with that, as electric cars lose power in cold weather. Electric car driving range is seriously reduced in cold weather. Just turning your key on drains power in an electric car.

My opinions are strictly personal and I can rant on and on about it, but in the long run, it’s the sun that controls all life on this planet, and not including any sun forcing in any calculation is a big mistake.

 

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US Dollar Intraday Double Top!

Before the digital ink even dried from my previous US dollar posting, we just hit a double top this morning to within .003 of a point.  Now we have to wait and see if this is a bullish H&S or a bearish one.  I still have 3 degrees left but we may be close to a wave 4 type of correction.  I may also be jumping the gun here, as just a small spike has developed. This entire bullish phase has been running since the January 10th bottom with the February low being the secondary bottom as a higher low. I believe the US dollar is in a much bigger bull market than most of us expect, but where we are in this bull market is always the task at hand. The US dollar turned very bullish in 2008 and since then has been in a 5 wave run in Primary degree.

The Euro took a hit, as well as the other 5 in the USD basket!

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US Dollar Quick Update

Regardless of the news, this US dollar chart is still heading up. The USD bull market is keeping the gold price in check. Even though the commercials positions are heavy net short, the USD seems to ignore that.  This does happen at times and can last a long time before any reversal happens.

We can see that the USD price moves are still controlled by the “Golden Cross” and the US dollar would have to crash deep before the “Death Cross” can even occur.  The USD is getting support at the 200-day MA line and I see that as a bullish sign.  All the gold bugs, (investors) want the USD to implode but at this time the USD refuses to play their game.  Short term the odds may be stacked against the US dollar but not long term as the US dollar is in a bigger bull market than we can imagine.

The next price target would be above my wave 3 in Minor degree, which is about 97.500.

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Bitcoin Futures Inverse Split?

I read a Crypto related blog and since the wild top, all I heard was news that was centered around “Hope”. Wishing that some miracle is going to happen to send Bitcoin prices soaring again has been the main theme. The last thing I will do is give readers a wave count on any Cryptos as it is a waste of our time.

It was the huge gap that opened up to the downside that caught my eye, and once I check the price at the mania peak it worked out that Bitcoin futures hit $1,931,501 US. We know Bitcoin never saw that price extreme, and it was a dead giveaway that they did some special work how this chart puts out data. Events or insane price top changes is not that uncommon, as many of the leveraged ETFs do exactly that.

The industry is so prone to hacking, and shady operators that it has turned off many people from using Bitcoin. Besides, that Bitcoin prices are declining which investors hate as well.

In the real world gaps have a 90% chance of getting filled, but in the Crypto world nothing is real and this gap will, “Never” get filled!  If it did then Bitcoin would have to go above $600,000 and the charts would need to get adjusted again.

 

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Gold Intraday Peak Update!

Last month gold has finally decided to back off in its price surge to $1325. If this so-called bull market in gold is real then a strong correction has to complete well before the $1160 price bottom. That’s a lot of price distance gold has to cover, which the majority of participants don’t expect. Banks are up to their usual tricks and have been buying gold in 2018.  The problem with banks buying and selling gold is they always buy high and then sell low at bear market bottoms. Back in 1998-2000, they were selling gold as fast as they could with countries unloading their gold stashes as well. In 1999 gold was considered an ancient relic, close to junk status.

As fast and far that gold can soar, it can crash even faster and deeper. We could see a correction, but don’t get excited as even a zigzag decline can crash to new lows if this bullish phase is just a big bear rally. Fear could engulf many asset classes where there is no place to hide as stock markets and gold crash at the same time.  Sure, I can be wrong and it will be important to recognize a correction when it’s going to finish.

I believe the 2011 peak was a 30-year mania peak in Cycle degree wave 3. Any Cycle degree bear market in gold does not end in just 8 or 10 years, as the bear market in gold during the 1990’s last 20 years.

Since the government shutdown, the first COT report was published last Friday. The way things are going the government could shut down again, with no COT reports being produced.

When I first saw the report I noticed a very large shift to the bearish side, with about 5-6 weeks backlogged data being published.

 

Commercials added 33,486 short positions and took away 2058 long positions, for a combined total of 35,544 contracts totaling just over 3.5 million Troy ounces.  Now, look over to the NON-Commercial side (Speculators).  We can see they did the exact opposite, chasing this gold bullish phase.  The problem is that both parties can’t be right!  The mass media always talk about what the speculators are doing and ignore all commercial hedgers action. From my perspective, the commercial hedgers have the best track record and ignoring them usually brings pain and suffering onto the bulls that think a trend can never end. What the COT report is telling me is that no super gold bull will start to soar anytime soon.

There is no corrective price bottom I want to use right now, as a 60%-70% net crash can happen. The $1200 price level is a gold psychological price level so if and when the gold price ever hits that area again it could put up a big fight!

Silver has a lot less distance to fall before it resumes the big bear market again.  Silver only has to fall below $14 and then below $13.50 and it would be back into its bear market.

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Natural Gas Weekly Chart Crash Update

I’ve made a few changes to my Wave count but the chances of the bullish phase that started in 2016 could be a false bull market or bear market rally. To help confirm that, Natural Gas charts must retrace the “Entire” bullish phase.  The $2.50 price level would be normal support but that has a slim chance of holding.

Gaps opened up but were also closed pretty quick. At the $3.00 price level, we have another open gap that would get closed on a potential 4 wave rally in Minor degree.

Commercials hedgers are still net short and I would like to see them switch before I turn bullish on NG again. You would figure due to the Great Arctic Vortex, natural gas price would be soaring?  In 2014 Natural Gas matched the secondary peak of solar cycle #24, after which it resumed its bearish move. NG also repelled from the 2011 solar cycle peak.  A few more years to go, as the start of solar cycle #25 would work like a magnet, drawing prices to it.  Once solar cycle #25 starts, natural gas prices could be propelled to the upside for years.

The Arctic Vortex has nothing to do with the amount of CO2 in our atmosphere because the amount of CO2 forcing (leverage) has no numbers they can measure.

Yes, we could end up with another little ice age, and the alarmists will still be calling it global warming. Low sunspot activity is a most likely cause of the Vortex.

This chart of the solar cycle decline includes the January numbers where we can see sunspot activity has increased. 61% of 2018 was spotless, which may not yet be a record. The record low spot count for 2008 was 73% which may get hit again.

I’m expecting solar cycle #24 to come to an end, and many good science sites will report and track the turning which may be a few years away.

 

 

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Nasdaq Intraday Record High Update

Just a quick Nasdaq update this morning as I think another major turning is near. The speed that stock bulls have returned is very impressive, and other analysts have noticed it as well.  Even though the markets look bullish, they can fool us because they are just big bear market rallies.

Investors forget, don’t care or were not old enough to experience the 2007-2009 decline, but investors bought in at the peaks as well.  So far it is nice to see a potential turning into another new month, which could turn February very bearish. In simple terms, bear market rallies always retrace themselves, back to the point of origin of December 2018! Any price dip below 5800 will work, but the Nasdaq will not just stop dead in its tracks, but March could end up being very bullish again. Lack of data is haunting the markets as even farmers are temporarily blinded due to back-log economic data. The problem with all that fundamental data (news) is that much of it is lagging and or manipulated.

Investors were surprised that the rate hikes may be taking a “pause”, but investors can take that as bad news, as a recession followed everytime they paused.  Sure, many tech companies surged but Facebook doesn’t justify its move at all. FB developed a huge gap to the upside, and any gap has a 90% chance of getting filled. Since my Facebook account got hacked a few months back, I have started to reduce my digital footprint.

Apple has security concerns with its Facetime app and it seems that all smartphones are just spying tools.

Another bearish reason is the Gold/Nasdaq ratio. At 6.38:1 it’s an expensive ratio.  This morning it was 5.25:1. There’s a long way to go down before the Nasdaq and other indices become cheap again.

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Silver Monthly Chart 1980-2019 Review

Many analysts and wave analysts are very bullish on gold and silver as they think it offers some protection or safe harbor.  Running into an asset class is an emotional decision, not a logic one.

Emotional runs rarely last that long and as we can see if we look back in history, how violent silver moves have been. Of course, 20-20 hindsight vision is all fine and dandy, but if we don’t look back further than 2011, it is hard to imagine how violent silver prices have moved in the past. It’s the nature of the beast as commodities all follow the diagonal wave patterns, not those pretty wave patterns that we have in the DJIA or SP500.  Diagonal wave structures break all the rules as overlapping is more like the rule than the exception.

I remember the days when the Hunt brothers were trying to corner the silver market and since they tried to do this near a 30-year 1980 record high it was doomed to fail.

If we look at the spikes in 1980 and 2011, what followed was a huge bear market. Commodities are just big zigzags that are linked together and silver is no exception. The 30-year cycle with a ± 1-year frequency to it can be tracked back by counting backward by 30 years each time. The 120, 90, 60-year cycles all contain the 30-year cycles as well. 2041 will be a Supercycle degree peak but that will not happen until the bear market since the 2011 peak is finished.

Last week the government bureaucrats went back to work and actually produced new COT reports dated February 1, 2011. During this downtime, the commercials didn’t get excited and jump on the bullish silver bandwagon but they turned bearish and increased their net short silver positions. The speculators did the exact opposite as they are still chasing the silver bull.  This gives me confidence that the bull market in silver can turn on a dime, and break a new record, below the $13-$14 price level.  The recent bullish phase in silver is just barely 3 months old and is lagging gold by a long shot.

Commercials added 2960 short positions and removed 1433 long positions. Combine the two and I see more bearish moves to come, than bullish moves. It’s the non-commercial hedgers that always get in a trap, not the commercials who work inside the industry.

Gold commercials made a big bearish move, which I will post and edit in my recent gold post.

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Apple: Bull Market or Bear Rally?

 

Last month Apple’s stock price finished to the upside.  All the dovish news about rate increases taking a break was a major surprise to investors but I said this could happen many times before as T-Bonds are in a bull market. One thing that is hard to imagine is that Apple keeps on soaring if the DJIA or SP500 heads south. There is a huge probability that an expanded bottom has been formed which seldom ever hold.

I labeled about 5 gaps with a recent gap to the upside still being open. Short term this gap will get closed, with a much bigger gap still open at the $120-$130 price level. Jumping on the Apple bandwagon after a month of bullish action, is an emotional decision, thinking we are buying on the “Dips”.  Of course, my bearish outlook can be wrong and for that to happen, we must see a correction form with “No” new record lows.

Just because an asset class goes up, does not mean it’s in a bull market. If market participants get fooled by a Minor degree rally then any Intermediate degree or Primary degree rally will really fool the majority.  I would be a lot more bullish on Apple’s stock price if there were records of insiders buying their own shares back. I read one story that Al Gore was a buyer, but I have to hunt up the article to confirm it. I believe the board wants to kick Al Gore of the team. If and when this happens I will shed no tears for Al Gore to be removed from his position.

Even before this rally Apple’s stock price was not dirt cheap when we compared it to gold. Today this Gold/Apple ratio sits at 7.91:1 which is better than the extreme ratio of 5.24:1.

I think the Gold/Apple ratio should get closer to 10:1 or even 15:1 before it may be a longer-term hold.

With the new moon coming on Monday, it can provide an extra push if the reversal is near.  I’m sure they will get their Facetime bug fixed, but it also goes to show how easy it is to hack into this digital world. The biggest threat is Artificial Intelligence, (AI) as dictators and communist countries use AI to brainwash and control them. If you think the movie “1984” is about dystopia, then what we have today is far more powerful and insidious.

 

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Gold 1950-2011 Review

I’m showing a big picture in gold that very few wave analysts will show us. Wave analysts have gold in a bull market with the contrarians making damn sure in telling me that I’m wrong that gold still has to form new record lows in the next 2-3 years.  The $1400-$1050 price range in gold is the argument and recently gold was heading to $1325, so the $1400 gold price move is not yet dead!

The main difference of opinion is what we think the 2011 peak in gold actually was?  If we think that the 2011 peak was just a normal peak in a normal bull market then yes,  many expect a new bull market in gold. From my Cycle degree perspective, this gold peak of 2011 is part of a 30-year cycle which had peaked in 1950, 1980 and now in 2011. We are out by one year but the next major mania gold and silver peak will not happen until 2041. 2041 would be the Cycle degree wave 5 peak, and since no 5th wave should ever be uncapped, 2041 will also be an SC degree wave 3 peak.

There is little doubt in my mind that this gold market has not completed any 4th wave in Cycle degree. At a bare minimum, gold would have to retrace deep enough to enter the price level of the 1980 peak of $850. The 2011  peak also matches the first peak of solar cycle #24. 1980 was also a solar cycle peak but I’m not sure of the exact cycle peak it was.  All commodities follow diagonal patterns and from the 1950 peak to the 2011 peak gold was just a huge zigzag.

Gold travels up and down with demographics as I started work at the bottom of wave 2 in cycle degree and the bull market in gold we do see was created by the boomers entering the labor force. In 1968 I was working for $2.98 CAD per hour, but we got a 20% pay raise every year for 4 years running!  I was able to save money and still blow much of it on having a good time.

If gold ever plunges below $500 in the next 2-3 years then gold will be a long term hold until 2041!  At this scale, the 200-day MA is still down at the $1000 price level and betting against gold hitting this 200-day MA may be a long term losing proposition.

What will happen first? Will gold close above $1400, before it closes below $1050? One price represents a bullish breakout while the $1050 price level would the bearish breakout!   Just to really make things interesting gold could shoot above $1401 and then turn around and head down to $1049!

 

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VIX Crash Daily Chart Review

The January 2019 VIX crash has now gone deeper than expected and when that happens an instant wave count review should be initiated. The VIX is now sitting on the 200-day MA line close to the $16 price level. Is the 200-day-MA going to give us some support? A small triple bottom is also developing along with the new moon on Monday, so this can provide an additional reason for a reversal.  If we are lucky we may see some COT updates but I won’t know that until late today.  Investors as a group, have now started to calm down like a herd of cattle would after being stampeded.

We may see a mini VIX rally up past $20 again as this can also work as an expanded pattern at the Minuette degree level.  As we can see the VIX is littered with many spikes in both directions and I try to look for the longest spikes which tend to hold the longest before the next reversal.  All the market bullish hype in the world will mean little when the VIX is ready to turn.

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GDX Gold Stock ETF Review

 

This GDX ETF started a bullish phase in 2018 and has carried through to the end of January, so far. If GDX  still heads higher then my diagonal set of 5 waves down will get trashed. GDX just finished a small vertical spike but a small correction below $20 would turn GDX into a diagonal set of 5 waves up. These moves can always be a toss-up between a single zigzag and a potential set of 5 waves. If this so-called bull market is true then GDX must not dip below 2018 lows and must produce a good corrective move instead.

The Gold/GDX ratio this morning is standing at 58.86:1 which is just below my record of 57.3:1 in August of 2018.  The cheap Gold/Gdx ratio was 84:1 which we may not run into until another major bearish phase materializes. Any move above the $25-$26 price range stops the wave count in its tracks and forces another review.

Reports on Fridays can send the markets on a wild reaction and I’m sure gold stock traders will not control their emotions when violent moves starts to come back.  BTW, Monday, February, 4th will have a new moon which can be very bearish for stocks as well.

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DJIA And SP500 Intraday Bull Market Update

 

The SP500 E-Mini has just pushed to another new high for the month of January 2019. Investors and analysts are bullish while a big group is bearish as hell. My Market Vane report is ending but this week there was only 50% bulls present which I don’t see as extreme. A 50/50 reading is not extreme enough to help determine any potential great move still to come.

I see this entire January run as a bearish rally but once the government clears up the economic backlogs we don’t have any COT reports to help us. I do have the Gold/Ratios which never shut down but are always active.  The Gold/Sp500 ratio was 2.03:1 this morning which it has been in a tight range since May 2018 which had the exact same reading.  This expensive ratio doesn’t make me jump up and down expecting another huge bullish phase to come. Cheap is a .75:1 ratio which means we still have a long way to go before stocks become very cheap again.

 

The DJIA has about the same wave pattern but looks like it has peaked already. This top may not hold as Friday’s can bring some very unexpected surprises which the markets may or may not like.

The DJIA is a bit cheaper when we use gold as a measuring stick, but it is still pushing the extremes at 18.77:1 this morning. 21:1 is the record to beat which happen in August of 2018.

We are at the end of a month and this bullish phase could be just the public stuffing or topping up their contributions for the 2018 tax year.

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Gold Intraday High Update

This morning gold spike to a high of $1315 before gold started to back off.  Analysts are bullish but most of them give emotional reasons why gold has been going up.  “Trade Concerns”  is just another mild way of calling gold’s bullish run as a safe-haven run.  There is a good chance that gold can dip to the $1300 price level, and then give us another leg up.  Sure, silver has also gone up but gold has left silver in the dust!

Even the gold-related ETFs and indices are lagging far behind the gold price. At this 90 minute scale, we get more “Crossings” as it didn’t take to long to travel from a Death Cross, right back to a Golden Cross. On the daily chart, we are still under the effect of the Golden Cross.

Ultimately it’s the USD dollar’s bearish action that is pushing gold higher.  My Market Vane report has expired and my COT reports may get published this Friday. Last time the commercials had very bearish positions, so it will be interesting to see how they shifted their positions. This Friday economic reports usually come out as well and if investors interpret them wrong, it could start a mini sell-off.

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DJIA Intraday Bullish Phase Update

For well over a month the  DJIA has been defying gravity. We had another peak yesterday at the 28,400 price level which is also the right shoulder of an H&S pattern. That’s just one indicator that the markets are approaching bull market resistance. Technically, this 4th wave rally can handle more, as diagonal 4th waves can dip into the previous wave 2.   Right now the DJIA is in the midst of a 3 wave move, but two more can develop, pushing to another record high! Gold has also soared during the same time period and this morning gold was close to $1310.

The Gold/DJIA ratio has not changed much as the DJIA is still very expensive at 18.76:1. That is better than the 21:1 ratio we did get and a far cry from the cheap readings of 7.19:1.  Maybe if we are lucky more government reports will come out this Friday, Feb,1, that will include some COT reports. Since Friday would be a new month other economic reports will also come out. All this could produce some very violent moves with the cold winter blast grounding flights. Grounding planes will affect their earnings as well, which could take some time before they report.

Once it gets colder in Chicago than the Arctic, then you know it’s fricken cold out.

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DJIA 1978-2019 Bull Market Review

Looking back in time always gives us a different perspective if we take the time to actually do it.  I’ve done this thousand’s of times, and each time looking for a better fit.  The common question is, “How deep or low can the DJIA fall down to”?  Since the 2000 peak we’ve had more forecasts of the DJIA crashing well below 1000 many times and yet this has never happened. In 2009 the markets sure dipped to a new low and well below the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.  The DJIA stopped dead in 2009, but nowhere near any previous 4th wave during the 1990’s stock mania.

The reason this has not happened is that all other wave counts are calculated as 5th wave extensions. I will stress the fact that it’s, “Impossiable”  for the EWP to create 5th wave extensions lasting 2 or even 3 generations.

The 2018  peak is a Cycle degree peak which eventually has to be fully corrected before another huge bull market in stocks will start. The public will call it a bear market and the big question may be, “How deep can the DOW fall”?  We have three important turning points, with the 2016 low being just one price area that we can see again. At a bare minimum, the DJIA should slip below the 14,000 price level. Longer term, any price low below 2011 lows, will get us closer to a bear market that is finishing.

This will not happen overnight as it will take as long as solar cycle #25 has not started.

The DJIA has made an impressive short term run that, at a minimum should give us another correction soon or the end of this bullish phase.

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Apple Stock: Bear Rally Or Bull Market?

 

Last week Apple’s stock price recorded another bullish high and could still hit a price target of $160.  The huge gap to the downside has now been filled!  The question is, ” Is this rally just another bear rally or is it the real thing”?.  I tend to believe that the rally that started in January, is part of an expanded 4th wave and one more move to the downside should eventually happen.  If Apple turns down it may take all of February to accomplish, but when it does I will turn very bullish on Apple’s stock price once it hits my  potential “A” wave in Primary degree.

The hedge funds saw this Apple crash coming and it takes only a few of them to unload billions of shares swamping buyers in the process.  I’m an Apple product user but that doesn’t mean I’m permanently bullish. Earning are extremely easy to manipulate and Apple is as good as any other company that manipulates earnings.  I would be far more bullish if insider buying news filled the financial news blogs, but that has not yet happened.

As more backlogged data comes out in the next few weeks,  it could surprise many investors and set off another mini selling panic.

The Gold/Apple ratio is at 8.25:1 today which I still consider an expensive reading. The more shares we can buy with one Troy ounce of gold the better, but not until we establish a large database over some extreme cycles, will it make sense.  The cheap Gold/Apple ratio was closer to 21:1,  so we have a long way to go before that ever happens.

 

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US Dollar Intraday Crash Update

News of a truce in the shut-down wars, forced a reaction from gold, while the US dollar imploded. The Euro and the CAD also reacted on Friday.  It looks like the US dollar is going to keep heading south, but this could also be just another correction.  We only have about 5 more trading days until the end of January after which the US dollar can add another leg up.  Above all, and to help confirm another bullish leg up, this US dollar chart can’t crash below the January 10th low of about 95.050. Besides a few “flash” type moves the markets have been pretty boring, but with the government ready to publish some economic data in the next few weeks, all hell could break lose.

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My updates are going to be sporadic in the next few weeks and months. I will put up a permanent page posting when I have more information.

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Platinum Weekly Chart Bear Market Review

This platinum bear market is about 7 years long with a major bottom in August of 2018.  With that kind of a bottom, we could turn very bullish.  There are no COT reports due to the government shutdown, but at least the Market Vane Report keeps on coming, which I will comment on later.

If we look at the pattern from 2016 to the 2018 peak, this pattern is identical to gold except with gold the entire pattern is pointing up. Virtually all other gold-related asset classes during the same time period have been facing down or sideways.  Silver was on the verge of a new bear market low while the price of gold was pointing up.

If the pattern in platinum can dip to new record lows, there is no reason why gold and silver can’t eventually do the same thing. The excuse that gold is special due to safe-haven buying is all pure BS as emotional moves never last long.  The pattern we see at the intraday scale looks corrective to me so a new record low should happen. Mind you it could be as slow as molasses flowing in the winter.

Any price plunge below $750 would sure help to support my near term bearish stance. After that, I will turn very bullish for a bigger long term bullish phase.  One reason I will turn bullish is the Market Vane Report (MVR) which showed that only 22% bulls are present.  In other words, there are a large number of bulls that will come back.  From a list of 35 MV items covered, the 22% low in platinum had the lowest reading out of all other asset classes.  The next lowest reading was the S. Franc at 30% bulls.

Palladium is at the opposite end, which is not covered in the MVR.

PPLT is the ETF equivalent to this futures chart and it looks like the ETF is doing a good job of tracking the metal.

 

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DJIA Bull Market Update

There is a good chance that this DJIA bullish phase is coming to an end. Investors are all waiting for some miracle to happen to give them the green light to jump on board this rally. All it takes is some more “bad news” and this market can switch by selling. Beside that many stop-loss sell orders are piled up below present levels even when we can’t see them. There aren’t too many traders that can handle a 2500+ point decline in the DJIA.

In the long run in order for this rally to be confirmed as just another bear rally, the DJIA has to decline well below the 21,700 price level. With this government shutdown, economic data is rather scarce just like with all the COT reports.  About the only truths we have are the charts and those that don’t know any technical analysis are at a distinct disadvantage.

This market rally is just a Minor degree rally and many analysts are very bullish. Getting fooled by a Minor degree bullish phase will be worse once we start a potential Primary degree bear market rally.

“A” wave bottoms in Primary degree are “buy” signals and they should last a bit longer than just a few weeks. I think it’s impossible to have double expanded tops like what all wave analysts are trying to tell us. Most are looking for 5 waves down in Primary degree which has never happened in over 18 years, and it’s not going to happen this time. The reason they have never materialized is that we are nowhere near any SC or GSC degree wave counts.

The Gold/DJIA ratio is at 19:1 this morning which isn’t that far of from a record expensive ratio of 21:1.  We have a long way to go before this market becomes dirt cheap again as a Cycle degree bear market will take more than a little dip to resolve.

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WTI Crude Oil Update

This March 2019 contract created another spike to the upside which may not be finished just yet. Is the $54-$55 price level resistance. From the bottom, the bullish oil move looks more and more like a 5 wave run.  A 5 wave run that could be part of an expanded pattern never lasts, and eventually, the entire 2019 run should get retraced.  COT report is worthless information until the government shutdown is settled. I do have the Market Vane report still coming in every Tuesday, and it shows 40% bulls are present. 40% is not nearly enough to push a huge bull market, especially if the 24 month high was only 59% bulls.  Now if yesterdays reading was just 20-30% bulls then, I would have to look for a bigger bullish wave count.

The Gold/Oil ratio got a bit more expensive around 24.12:1 but old records make a Gold/Ratio of 17:1 extremely expensive. Incidentally the 25:1 ratio has been hit about 2 times since the 1999 bottom and both times huge bull markets developed. We also have established a new ratio benchmark since then, as 44:1 showed that crude oil was extremely cheap.

Demand for oil also changes with the seasons but any fundamental supply and demand readings are not trustworthy. It’s too easy for any oil player to manipulate, cheat and lie about numbers especially when the oil or gas is still in the ground. Opec is trying to pump up its take on oil because of the Aramco IPO slated for this year.

In Canada, we have the federal government trying to block all pipeline construction because our smiling Photo Bomb leader is trying to turn Canada into a European country.  Canada has wasted its oil opportunity blocking First Nations who want the jobs and economic benefits from higher paying jobs.  What you don’t hear or read about in the media is there are far more First Nations that want to work with oil and mining companies, rather than against them. Native controlled energy companies are out there and more are being formed.

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SP500 Intraday Peak Review

Investors had a bit of downtime on Monday but the SP500 peaked out on Friday, January 18th.  Since then the SP500 has been slowly grinding down. The entire move since late 2018 sure fits into a 3 wave move which can be just a bear market rally.  On Sunday we also had a full moon which can act like a bull trap at certain times.  The world sad state of affairs will not get fixed with just a short correction as it will take years to unwind the deep debt that all governments are presently in.  At the 2680 price level, we also have a very tall H&S pattern being set-up which would be very bearish if the bear market rally is real.

The trend lines are there as it also looks like a rising wedge at this intraday level.  Not until the SP500 crashes well below the 2580 price level, can we still be in a bigger bullish phase?

The question I always have for the stock bulls is, “Where is this bullish phase going to”? Is the “bottom in”? Is it a bottom for a return to a multi-year bull market?  I’m looking for a bullish phase as well, but this is not it no matter how bearish the stock bears become.  Insiders would also be buying their own shares back and I don’t mean using shareholders money to try and manipulate their own stocks.  Buy-backs manipulate earnings with only a temporary effect even though they waste shareholders money. Companies that pay dividends or buy their own shares back are sending clear signals telling  you, ” We  have nothing better to do with investors money”.

Apple fits that description very well and once it started paying dividends under investors pressures, its innovations declined.  When we read countless stories about insider buying their own shares back then we might see a potential bottom for a big bullish move. Insiders did this on a massive scale in 2008, and they do not buy on a whim, and they most certainly don’t sell on a “Whim”.  A bottom with insider buying lasts much longer so if you were still bearish in March 2009 you will be left holding a wooden nickle like all the wave analysts did.  Thinking back to 2009 can give most investors brain cramps as researching that far back sounds too much like work. Talking about the market peaks in 2000 would be 18 year ancient history.

Solar Cycle #24 was underway by early 2009 yet all the wave analysts ignored this fact as in 2009 they all had very bearish wave counts. The wave analysts that are still chasing 5 waves down in Primary degree are living in La-La Land as they have learned nothing in the last 18 years!  Expert wave analysts are also telling us that 5th waves can extend 50 years or more which I think is impossible as 5th waves always contain the weakest fundamentals. Besides that, not a single 4th wave bottom in 1932 or 1974 have the markets ever retraced back to. The reason this has never happened is that 1932 was not a 4th wave bottom in SC degree.

2020-2021 could see the arrival of solar cycle #25 and being bearish when a solar cycle starts to crank-up will put investors right back into a bear trap much like early 2009!  Solar cycle studies were in the books of EWI, yet at that time they ignored solar cycles just like they ignored insider buying.

 

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Chinese Juan Offshore Elliott Wave Review

Since there is always news about the Chinese Juan, I thought I would look up its chart on bigcharts.com. USDCNH is offshore money much like US dollars are offshore as Eurodollars. If we start back at the 2014 low we can see what looks like the start to a fantastic 5 wave impulse.  The Juan’s bullish phase that ended in late 2016 sure works well as what followed was 7 wave decline. I don’t have exact dates for each bottom but many tops and bottoms happen spring and fall as well.  The bottom in early 2018 produced another fairly clean set of 5 waves which can work as my first 1-2 wave set if wave 3 is going to extend. If and when we see two more sets of 1-2 wave structures then as sure as I’m typing this, a wave 3 extension will happen.

2017-2018 we now have a great looking double top which is an H&S double top as well. In a bull market, H&S patterns are extremely bullish, so I wouldn’t be thinking bearish thoughts here as the Juan still has a long bull market ahead.  Unless I’m far too early with the Minor degree wave 2 bottom.  We should find out in about 3-5 months as I fully expect the Juan to break out in 2019!

 

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Euro Daily Chart Review

At this time I will keep counting like the January/February 2018 peak is a 4th wave peak. During the last 8-9 months, the EURO pattern produced a choppy pattern that contains an expanded pattern in a 4th wave position.  Since November 2018 the EURO rally was also very choppy which fits a bear market rally very well.  I can’t create a set of clean 5 waves up, so the EURO has the best chance of completely retracing its bearish rally.  All the experts in the world will give you reasons why the EURO goes up and down. I don’t need to regurgitate all the fundamental reasons for the EUROs up and down action because you can’t trade on fundamental reasons that change like the wind.

The bottom trend line would be an early warning that the bearish run is over but we have to keep alternates handy just in case.

 

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