Euro Weekly Chart Review

The Euro took a dip during the night further confirming a bearish mindset. I’m not exactly happy with this wave count as there is a bit of conflict here as the COT reports still have commercials being net long. Any big changes in COT positions are not posted yet. It takes the Saturday to look it all over for any changes. The USD acted bullish at the same time and gold pushed to $1320 before it backed off.

This short term Euro plunge could lead into a long spike which increases the chances a longer reversal is comming.

During the 2018 bearish phase, the Euro was extremely choppy which are classic diagonal wave structures, and they are still acting that way.

The golden cross is still in effect but that may not last too much longer after the 200-day MA gets sliced in two.

Brexit woes continue and survival of the Eurozone is also at risk as democratic countries are under constant threat of cyber attacks and debt traps.

Even though the Euro looks very bearish we should be very vigil for an unxepected reversal.

 

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Mini-SP500 Weekly Chart Review

While the majority of investors are pushing the SP500 higher, I’m building the bearish picture.  Most of the bearish pictures I can draw do have multiple choices most of the time. 8 choices would be normal and constantly eliminating anything that will not fit is the name of the game.

A near vertical move with barely a correction could work well as part of a wave 1 pattern and the mainstream analysts are foaming at the mouth in how bullish this setup is.  To confirm the bullish scenario the SP500 would have to continue to soar to much higher price levels, otherwise, we are being blinded by a bunch of smoke and mirrors media news.

There are lots of bearish moves just like this and most of them were fully retraced.  This weekly chart has pushed the SP500 past the 50-day MA, with the 200-day MA still being far below present prices.  The short story on that is that the death cross on this weekly chart is in our future as we are still under the influence of a golden cross that happened in 2009-2010.

Price wise the SP500 must crash well below any support we see and that is before the 200-day MA gets hit.

I’m sure that will happen as flogging a tired stock bull will eventually just piss it off and they could flee in all directions except up.

Commercial traders are not that skewed to the bearish side but bearish all the same.  This also tells me that their positions can change rapidly which will happen once the SP500 gets into another oversold condition.

The Gold/SP500 ratio tells us another story as this morning it was 2.16:1.  We are still very close to a record Gold/SP500 ratio high, so there is nothing that I would consider cheap when compared to the gold price.  In order for the SP500 to become cheap again we need to go below a potential 1:1 ratio or even lower.

 

 

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T-Bonds Bullish To the Bone! Weekly Chart Review.

The Fed has pretty well said that no more rate increases will happen in 2019.  Everybody on the planet knows about it and investors loved it by buying stocks.  All this is fine and dandy but when they stop rate increases, a recession usually follows. There is no way that the world will escape a recession and China is leading the pack. T-Bonds have been in a bull market since 1981. Sure we had major Bond crashes in the past but T-Bonds charged higher after each correction/crash.

I counted out the top as an expanded pattern this time but the end result should be the same as T-Bonds will charge to new record highs once again.

All the commercial hedgers are still net long across many different maturities so it is futile to look for the great bond crash that many experts expect.

There still are different choices for wave count I can have as connecting zigzags is the name of the game in the T-bond pattern.  Over 36 years of a choppy diagonal wave structure and its still bullish.

The odds that 1982 was a Supercycle degree wave 2 bottom is hard to understand by most, but T-Bonds also had a 120-year bear market which might even be harder to understand. ( Zigzag from about 1861 to 1982) 30-60 and 90-year cycles are also all part of it.

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Shanghai Composite Index (INDEX)

This is the chart that tracks companies on the Shanghai index. This is the S&P created index and for now, is the best I can track the Shanghai index with.  I’m convinced that any fundamental news that comes from  China is controlled by China’s highly efficient propaganda machine.

The fundamentals in China are far worse than anything you may have been reading. It’s not rocket science but the Chinese economy is slowing much faster than we think. China is a nation of zombie, companies, banks, and cities. I could go on and on but the short version is that China is all built on debt, and so far has broken all records making the 2008 crisis seem like a walk in the park.

The peak in 2008 matches a major peak in most of the commodities, which I think is wave 3 in Cycle degree. The bear market has been going on for about 10-11 years and I see it far from being finished before any huge bullish phase comes down the pipeline.

Right now the two trend lines put the Shanghai index in no man’s land and that the present rally is just another bear market rally.  There is a very convincing inverted zigzag I see and they usually get completely retraced. Mind you that could still take a few years to play out especially since solar cycle #24 is still running.

I don’t have a big Gold/Shanghai ratio database accumulated, but enough to give us some extreme readings. A low ratio means that the Shanghai index is cheap when compared to gold.

Today this ratio sits at 2.37:1, which is down from an extreme of 6.61:1. In 1996 this ratio was 1.29:1 and the Shanghai may even come back to this cheap ratio.

 

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US Dollar Daily Chart Review

From this perspective, I can sure show you a very bearish US dollar pattern as I have a group of overlapping waves that can’t make fit.  With a potential wedge and the right shoulder, the US dollar sure looks bearish. At least in the short term. The right shoulder will not hold if the USD is in a bigger bullish phase.

Tomorrow is also the full moon which can produce some amazing reversals but many turnings also happen closer to the end of a month, so the USD can remain bearish for another couple of weeks.

Commercials support a bearish stance right now, as they are net short by a margin of 10.9:1. Of course, the speculators have been chasing the US dollar bullish phase but their net long ratio would shrink as the US dollar declines some more.

A price drops down to the 94 price level would be one of my choices which would trash the bottom support line as well.

In the short term I’m bearish but longer term the US dollar could be in a bigger bull market that very few of us are expecting.  In 2008 the entire planet hated the US dollar, but yet look what happened! The US dollar soared while gold crashed a couple of hundred dollars. The USD has a 26-year falling wedge which can produce super bullish phases.

 

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Platinum Monthly Chart Review

If you are looking for a “Head Scratcher”  wave count, then Platinum will provide it for us!  As much I would love to turn bullish on Platinum there is a good chance the bear trend is not over just yet.

We do have a quadruple bottom base at the $755 price level but that does not mean it will hold and then soar in a new bullish phase. The wedge pattern sure is a bullish signal, but the present pattern could push to a new record low just the same.  Commercial traders are still net short so that sure gives me pause in chasing a very bullish wave count.

All Commodities run on the diagonal wave structure and Platinum has its fair share of diagonal waves which are zigzags connected together.  I think the 2008 peak is wave 3 in Cycle degree but that produced a Primary degree wave count that I could not make fit.

After the 2008 peak, I had to drop down my degree level by one, as the odds of a Cycle degree 4th wave finish in the near future is still very slim at this time.

I would love to be more bullish but the commercials do not support it.

Being too early does produce a bunch of pain due to the leverage built into all commodities. Even the ETF, PPLT will give you pain if we are too early. PPLT is about 1/10 the price of a  single Platinum ounce and is sitting around $78.80 USD.

 

 

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Review

Since late 2018 the Nasdaq has created a bottom and has been on a bullish move that is hard to imagine that it could still be in a bear market rally.  Only time can give us an answer and at this time there still is a good chance that a new record high is going to be established. If that is the case then the right side should eventually push that flat line up.

A right shoulder in a bull market would push much higher again, but if a bearish turn awaits us then the right shoulder would just crash.  I would give that right shoulder about a 50-60% price retracement and after that, a complete bull market failure can still happen.

At the beginning of bull markets, right shoulders fail to hold back the bears most of the time, but when we are closer to the end of a bullish phase, the right shoulder is less likely to hold.

Last week the Market Vane report showed that on the 12th  there were 68% bulls present. That is down from a 24 month high of 91%.  The more bulls present in the survey the less chance of a big bunch of stock bulls still to come in.  Of course, the only way the bullish herd can push it higher is if they just came out of a secret tunnel they’ve been hiding in. 🙂

God knows the world has been on a massive tunnel digging spree, maybe there is a big group of stock bulls living in the Center of the Earth!

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is always at work and you won’t find any ratio in your analytical toolbox. The Gold/Ratio of anything always gives us a reading when something is expensive or cheap when compared to a Troy ounce of gold, in US dollars.

A cheap reading once was 1.18:1 and my most expensive reading was 6.38:1. Today the Gold/Nasdaq ratio sits at 5.61:1 which still makes the Nasdaq very expensive.

 

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Gold Daily Chart Update

I’ve made some adjustments to the wave count at this time.  The big question is, “Is this rally a Bear Rally”?  I like to think it is but only time can answer that question.  A Gold crash below $1160 would give us an answer.

First gold has to show us what the $1200 price level will do, as even numbers seemed to be a crowd psychology thing.  Crossing the $1200 price level could get the gold bulls very worried and a new rush of protective sell stops could get triggered.

At the $1350 price level another right shoulder will form and if there still is a big bullish gold price move, then the right shoulder will not hold.  In the last few years, we’ve had a few H&S patterns and they all have pushed gold prices back down.  Last week commercials made some bullish moves but they are still net short by a wide margin.

In little over 5 months, gold moved up $175, but they are forgetting that gold has an ugly history of crashing $100-$200 as well.

If investors are running to gold for a safe-haven to hide in, then that’s an emotional move, not a logical move.

Gold has also come to a screeching halt as it bounces around the 50-day MA line. Gold is still under the influence of a golden cross and gold would have to crash through the $1240 price level for us to witness a new death cross.

On a weekly chart, the new death cross is only about $20 apart!

 

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VIX Intraday Bear Trap Review?

The VIX has traveled much deeper than what I was expecting. I’m looking for a bullish reversal which will spring the trap on the unsuspecting VIX bears.  In the last month, the VIX bottomed 3 times which could be a signal that tells us that the VIX decline has had enough.

When the VIX moves it can be very violent as tons of buy stops will get hit until the 4th wave top.  On this 90 day chart, the golden cross has just formed so a rally will stop the VIX from creating a death cross.  You can call this bottom a double H&S pattern and even add the falling wedge for good luck.

I’m looking for a big bullish move with the VIX and soar well off the top of the chart.

The commercial hedgers are stacked to the long side by a ratio of about 2.4:1 and as usual, the speculators have taken the opposite position.  Both can’t be right in their direction and violence will ensue (Increase in Volatility), once this skewed trade starts to unwind.

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Crude Oil Monthly Chart Update

This is the June contract month and from the recent late 2018 bottom, crude oil looks like it wants to soar.  This may happen in the short term but the commercial trader’s positions do not support a major bull market to continue in oil. If the COT report showed that commercials are adding many long positions, then I would think otherwise.

World growth is slowing down and the oil trade wars are not going away as well.   Crude oil has been in a bear market since July  2008. Oil has tried to break out two major times and each time it failed to get its mojo back. The big question is if the 2016 low was the real bull market low, or will oil crash to new record lows again.  A complete retracement would sure confirm that our recent bearish rally has the oil bulls in a bull trap.

This could take the rest of the year to play out so don’t expect anything to happen just yet.

The Gold/Oil ratio became a bit more expensive in the last few weeks or so as it was 22.8:1 today as I post. Now if this same ratio were heading to 30:1 or more then chances are good I would be very bullish on crude oil.

Switching oil to a Cycle degree triangle may only last until the digital paint has dried. March is also a good month for reversals so we just have to have the patience, to see if the oil bear is going to attack again.

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NIL:ZMA Amsterdam AEX Index (INDEX)

I started to look at the Netherlands stock market with the EWN (ETF)  but when I saw this ZMA index, its pattern was completely different. In the long run, ZMA should act just like it did in 2003 and then decline again like it did in 2008.

For over 18 years the ZMA index has produced nothing but bear market rallies.  Of course, the present top needs to crash or decline to help confirm my suspicions.  I can draw you all sorts of subjective trend lines or wedges if you like, but it would still take a few years for a new bearish decline to show itself.

It looks like a triangle could be in progress, and we would need the “E” wave to show itself.  The 2000 peak would be the Cycle degree peak but I used my idealized commodities charts to count this out.  After the Cycle degree 4th wave has arrived then it will be important to know that we will have at least two options to choose from.

From the 2000 peak to the 2009 bottom solar cycle #23 was in progress, after which solar cycle #23 handed control over to solar cycle #24.  I just shake my head when people think that the sun has no bearing on climate change and life on earth.

I have no Gold/ZMA ratio database set up but I took two readings as a starter. March 11 gave us a high reading of 2.41:1 while the 2009 low reading was about 4.73:1.

In general visitors from the Netherlands are about 8-9th on the ranking list.

I do not have the time to keep the ZMA wave count maintained as it can take years to fine tune any wave count.

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Quick Look At The DJTA Index 2009-2019

This DJTA provides yet another look at the markets and the transportation industries. Since this is more like a “First Look” at this index I’m sure future adjustments will have to be made due to the fact that a Minor degree move at this time could be out by one degree.

I left the Primary degree 5th wave uncapped due to lack of space. Leaving any 5th wave uncapped means that wave analysts have no clue where they really are, or that they quit trying to decipher the next higher degree.

I don’t know where we really are as well, because it takes years babysitting and maintaining  any wave count before we can get the courage to trade it.

If the bigger bear market is still coming then this index will have no choice but to register a new record low in 2019. In order for that to happen a complete retracement of all 2009 gains must happen.

I do not have a Gold/DJTA ratio database set-up but we have two that will give us an idea of how cheap or expensive the DJTA is when compared to US dollar-priced gold.

Today this ratio sits at 7.82:1 while at the 2009 bottom low this ratio was about 2.27:1. We want to see this ratio to compress making the DJTA index cheaper.  We may never see the Gold/DJTA ratio of 2.27:1 again, but we may see 4:1.

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Crude Oil Monthly Chart Death Cross Review

Crude oil follows the Idealized diagonal wave patterns which are mostly zigzags connected together and count out with a 7 wave count.

To put it bluntly diagonals can count out with, A,B,C,D,E, or  (ABC1,ABC2,ABC3,ABC4,ABC5) and or W,X,Y,X,Z.  They are all the same patterns and the only difference is where they are found.  Waves 1,3 and 5 can be zigzags and wave 2 and wave 4 can be flats, triangles or complex zigzags.

The history of oil only started in the 1840s. From 1980 to 1999 there was a Triangle inside a “B” wave, followed by a bull market where I now only see 7 waves. All other expert wave analysts saw 5 waves but the 5th wave was far too small so they forced a Primary degree 5th wave into the pattern.

Forcing a wave count will never work, and believe me I tried as well as I got sucked into believing that 1999 was a Cycle degree 4th wave low!

Many good contrarians saw the 2008 oil crash coming and never believed in the “Peak Oil” bullshit. Obviously, history has confirmed the Peak Oil BS, and about 8 months later crude oil was in another world glut!

The Gold/Oil ratio in 2008 was 9:1 and oil only had one option and that was to crash. By early 2009 this ratio stood at about 25:1. Oil rallied from a real-world glut as the experts were looking for lower and lower oil prices. Expert fundamental analysts missed most of the major important turnings. By the time the Gold/Oil ratio hit 17:1 it started another deep crash, but this time the rato hit 44:1.  Today we are sitting at 23.58:1.  I would like to see a much deeper ratio like 30:1 before I turn super bullish again.

Besides the Gold/Oil ratio numbers the commercial traders are not very bullish as well. With the monthly chart above, crude oil is still under a death cross, including the weekly and daily charts. That alone should give pause to oil investors or traders.

This morning crude oil had a bit of a meltdown, which gives a bearish outlook a lot more credibility.

The world economies are slowing and oil demand may slow right along with it.

80% of the world still runs on fossil fuels and if we jumped, or are forced off its addiction, the world could not feed or heat itself. Don’t think electric cars will save the world as one huge solar flare can knock them out very quickly.

 

 

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March 2019 Solar Cycle #24 Update

This chart tracks how much sunspot activity is going on for any given month. Each dot you see represents one month of sunspot activity.  During the entire month of February, no sunspot activity was recorded with the first sunspot coming out just a few days ago. Sunspot # 2734 was so small they weren’t going to number it but it grew in size and broke a long spell of no sunspot activity.

The secondary peak in early 2014 was the smallest peak since the early 1900s which corresponded well with the potential Elliott Wave wave 3-4 in Intermediate degree.

The huge debate in the next few years will be the experts calling for a bottom when a new sunspot arrives.  We may be coming up to a 10-year bottom to bottom time cycle but that does not mean anything until the new sunspots come out in the Northern Latitudes of the sun.

This sunspot # 2734 is so small it is hard to see on the sun’s face.  Yet it’s still too close to the equator of the sun. They can measure the polarity of any sunspot and below is a picture of the sun showing the polarity for each. Two of them are so small that they will not be given a count until they survive a full rotation of the sun.

The small insert is sunspot #2734 with the Plus + pointing north.  The other two small sunspots have their + and – poles lining up with the equator of the sun.  Many will start to call an end to Cycle #24 but then it would be one of the shortest measured from one bottom to the next.

Some solar cycles have lasted 13 years bottom to bottom, so calling a bottom now is still far too early.  An 11-12 year cycle would be much better which may not end until 2020-2021.

2021 would also end the 20-year cycle that started in 2000.  Many experts think the sun is not important in controlling climate change but this February with basically no sunspot activity produced one of the coldest Vortex winters on record.  Even our generally mild West Coast saw record lows in February.

I would rather be a bit late in calling any solar cycle #24 bottom until we see clear evidence of sunspot activity being formed in the northern or southern parts of the sun.

Once solar cycle #25 does show itself then you will see a huge change in the stock and commodities markets.  If you don’t want to believe that then just look at the first solar cycle #24 peak in 2011. The fact that gold started to crash at that time was not a random event. Stocks in 2011 started to soar which kicked the stock mania into high gear.

I follow Spaceweather.com on a regular basis as solar storms are far more important.  Communications do get interrupted here on earth. (GPS) Nasa relies on space weather as solar cycle activity will force them to boast satellites back higher in orbit.

If they did not do this then all the satellites and space junk would eventually produce a constant light show. The International Space Station is set to be taken out in a few more years so that will display a light show that everyone on earth will be waiting for.

I’m not a scientist by any stretch of the imagination. I have been following the solar cycles for well over 20 years and anything I post is just my personal opinion. I will not stop now, as our wave counts get trashed by the sun every time.

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SP500 Midcap E-Mini Update

This S&P Midcap bullish phase produced another wild ride to the upside. It looks like 5 waves up as the subdivisions were very small.  A single zigzag crash ending in December 2018 can make all this fit into a diagonal set of 5 waves down in Intermediate degree.

The Midcaps found resistance just a bit above the 200-day MA line which still leaves the Midcaps under the influence of a  Death Cross.  March can also give us fantastic turning times in both directions, but we have to have the patience for this to play out in the short-term.

I don’t have a big database on any Gold/Midcap ratios but today we are sitting at 1.48:1.

The commercial hedgers are still net short the S&P Midcaps but not by all that much. In other words they can swing to a net long position fairly quick.

 

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DJIA Daily Chart Death Cross Review

Since the December 26, 2018 crash low the DJIA exploded in an upward path that any sane wave counter would see five waves up and make a call that the Dow is heading to new record highs. Maybe?. The Death Cross at the 25,100 price level should give the stock bulls reason to pause as there is only a slim chance that a Golden Cross is still to come and even if a  Golden Cross did happen, it may only be a short-lived event.

Commercial hedgers are not all that deep with net short positions so counter rallies can happen.  I’m looking for a diagonal 5 waves down so another zigzag could play out, with the price traveling to a new record low.

Complete retracement will help to confirm that this stock rally was just another bear market rally.  This pushes any Primary degree “A” wave into the future and fear has a funny habit of creating mini-panics which can turbo charge any decline.

At 20:1 the Gold/DJIA ratio makes the DJIA still as expensive as ever so that alone keeps me from looking for bullish wave counts.

 

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Palladium Daily Chart Review

Palladium has been on one crazy bullish ride, but I think another top is in at the $1556 price level reached on Feb 26, 2019.  Checking the commercial hedger’s positions they have a very healthy net short position with a ratio of about 3.57:1.

The speculators have gone the opposite direction as they are net long by a ratio of 4.17:1 They will be the ones to panic first once this palladium bear market shows itself.

In the past palladium has made very long and steep crashes so it sure can happen again, especially if the Cycle degree wave 3 has also completed.

The 4th wave bottom I do show is only a Minor degree bottom at about the $834 price level.  At best that may offer temporary support but a move below $500 would not surprise me.

I also looked at where the Death Cross might be and at this point where not anywhere near a Death Cross on any of the 3 time scales I normally use.

On the intraday 90 minute scale its another story, as palladium just crossed the 200-day MA line.

 

 

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Gold: Weekly Chart Impending Death Cross Review

I look at two sets of COT reports and this chart shows that the commercial hedgers have a very bearish outlook. Of course, the speculators are doing the exact opposite as they are chasing the gold bull market that many believe we are in.   When I see such a bearish position as the COT report above I’m not going to spend my time looking for a bull market, that may never come.

Between the silver chart and this gold weekly chart, we can see a huge difference.  Since the 2016 July, peak gold has a very bullish slant so wave analysts will show a bullish wave count, most of the time.  Silver and the majority of gold stock related ETFs do not confirm gold’s pattern as most of them are pointing down, not up like gold.

At present we have 3 major gold prices that if cross will make or break another bull gold market myth.  $1160, $1120 and $1050 will all be critical price levels, besides $1200 being a psychological number as well.  For now, gold is still under the control of a Golden Cross but will be set to change if gold keeps crashing.

With a monthly chart, the 200-day MA is down at the $1000 price level, while on a daily chart the 200-day MA is at $1240.

No wave count is written in stone but when the bullish leg that started in August 2018 retraces about $96 we could be ready for a reversal. We could get a 60-70% retracement as well but we better see a stunning correction like pattern when it completes.

Any price below that $1160 bottom will confirm that at least one leg of it was just a bear market rally.  Bullish and bearish moves can last for an entire month with March being a very popular turning month. It’s a seasonal thing as well, as people become more active in March when we start to get out of the deep freeze we’ve had this year.

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Silver: Crash, Death Cross Weekly Chart Update!

This COT report displays the Commercial bearish positions without having to think too much about it. Last weeks report they added to their bearish outlook so looking for a bullish wave count would be an exercise in futility.  Even if they shifted to a neutral position it would be better than what we have right now.

With this weekly chart, silver is still under the influence of a Death Cross and silver would have to make a big price jump for this Death Cross to become a Golden Cross.  Good luck with that as when we look at silver with a daily chart, we can see a big gap still open to the downside.

By $14.600 this gap will be closed and could offer support,  at least in the short term.  This is also where a bullish correction could take place, but if silver dips below the bottom trendline at $13.882, then the entire phase since the 2016 bottom will be classified as just another bear market rally from a Cycle degree perspective.

How many fake bull markets has silver had since the 2011 top? Add them all up and we still have one ugly bear market in progress.

I like the wedge I see but I never trust that the flat bottom will hold anything when as this chart can still plunge slice right through the bottom support line.

 

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Brent Crude Daily Chart Update

This is the June 2019 contract which topped out on February 22 at the $67.60 price level.  Brent crude never made it to the 200-day MA where we normally would expect resistance. Brent is also on a little rally as I’m posting,  so the entire expanded pattern is not written in stone just yet.  Even if another leg up is goning to take Brent to new record highs I would like to see a deeper correction develop. That could take Brent down to the 50-day, MA at about the $60 price level.

Brent is still under the effect of a Death Cross and any Golden Cross is still nowhere to be seen.  The Gold/Brent ratio is at 20.30:1 which is much better, but getting back up to the 17:1 range we used to have.  The commercial hedgers positions are too close to being neutral, so they will just give us false readings at this time.

 

At this time there may not be anymore updates until next month.

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DJIA Daily Chart Review

This DJIA is about the same as the SP500 in how far this bullish move has gone.  The DJIA still has a Death Cross below it even though the DJIA blasted right through both MA lines.  At 24,200 the 50-day MA might give the DJIA some support, but any correction could keep this Death Cross alive much longer.

The commercials don’t have a big bearish position, so this can give the DJIA a bit more wiggling room in the short term.

I’m not going to spent too much time on this update but the Gold/DJIA ratio is still near the extreme expensive side of 19.62, better than the 21:1 ratio I did have back in August 2018.  A cheap DJIA index would be 8:1 but that will not happen anytime soon.

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SP500 Daily Chart Review

The SP500 and other indices wave positions I had have now pushed further that I would like to see, so changes have to be made.  This 2800 price level has been hit for the 6th time this year alone, so it will be critical to see how long this bullish move will last. Even though this stock rally looks like a real impulse wave, there have been many like this which have been completely retraced. Gold is just one example.

The commercials are not skewed that much to the bearish side so that adds to the uncertainty to this bullish phase, in the short term. The Gold/SP500 ratio helps as it is at 2.10: this morning. This is still about as extreme as it gets as my last extreme was 2.41:1 back in September of 2018.  We also have one wicked H&S being set up and in a bigger bullish phase, the right shoulder will not hold.

Market players are always waiting for something to happen that will paint a bullish picture, like the trade talks. Fundamentals change like the wind and basing investment decisions on the words of a politician usually never last as emotional investors can interpret any news a thousand different waves. There are many contradictions made by the mainstream analysts and that alone is enough to take pause to see how long this bullish phase will go.

HEDGE decline to new record lows which makes it out of sync from the SP500 index by a large margin. HEDGE has far more “slippage” in it than I originally though, which makes it unsuitable for a long term investment/trade. When there are options inside an inverse ETF, I would not waste my time with it, so I will no longer spend my time wave counting out HDGE. Besides that, if HDGE  ever got closer to the $5 price level, an inverse split can happen. A normal inverse split can be a 4:1.

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My updates are going to be erratic and reduced this year. I will post updates on my page.

https://elliottwave5.com/elliott-wave-5-0-possible-status-change-in-2019/

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Gold Weekly Chart Review

Bull market or bear rally is the million dollar question?  What the majority do call a bull market, can be just a big bear market rally from an EWP point of view.  Since the 2011 peak we’ve had more bear rallies than we can count, well we can count them if we have nothing better to do. Many were Minor degree moves with one Intermediate degree bull move that all have failed.

I was fooled as well but slowly succumbed to the bears as counter rallies were always completely retraced.  Sure, at times the price is important but the pattern is far more important. If we look back to the 2015 low ($1050), gold has been in a bullish phase since then and is now a little over 3 years long in duration.  Since the 2015 bottom, we’ve had two higher lows which is a conventional way of calling a bull market.

Each of the three bullish phases topped out and was followed by a crash and recovery. We ended up with three peaks that have to produce some serious resistance, with the third peak reaching $1346 before gold started to correct again.  We would need this gold run to continue past the $1400 price, and once that happens you will hear the world screaming, “Upside Breakout”.

Since the 2016 top, we now have two sets of Head&Shoulder patterns already formed. Are they bullish H&S patterns or bearish patterns? We also have a wedge that has formed, so any new direction is not all that clear at this time. Gold has 3 major support prices that would have to hold if a true bullish phase is still in progress, but if gold has been in a 3-year bear rally, then all three price supports will get completely retraced. The three support prices would be $1160, $1120 and the last one would be $1050?

Gold has also been in a rally right along with stocks, so gold could also crash right along with the stock markets. When fear strikes logic thinking is thrown out the window and all those little emotional “Algorithms” will panic, selling out before bullish investors lose money.  Sell stops are piled up below present prices, and you don’t need a smart “Algorithm” to trigger them.

AI trading is also becoming a major factor and I see it more of a bad thing than a good thing.

I would be far more bullish if the commercial traders were in a net long position, but the sad fact is that they are not!

 

 

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Review

Several wave counts I was working on have now started to break down and no longer fit. This always calls for a review and at this time the obvious move is my Cycle degree wave 3 August 2018 peak.  The December 2018 bottom and our present rally display more and impulse wave than a counter rally wave.   Many rallies in the past also showed 5 waves up but ended up getting completely retraced.

The Nasdaq is still under a Death Cross and now has run up against the 200-day MA line. If this trend is going to continue then at least the 200-day MA can offer some resistance, but a bear market rally can completely retrace this entire bullish phase. Only time will tell but the tech is taking a beating around the world as its being used to brainwash all of us. Our smartphones have already turned us into digital zombies and governments use it to spy on everybody!

The recent attacks on the Australian parliament are just small examples of how tech is being used to try and control us. Every democratic government is coming under attack and Canada is no exception.

If you think I’m paranoid, I have a reason to be since my Facebook account got hacked last year. How many times have you heard about a Bitcoin robbery and hacked accounts with hundreds of millions gone missing?  As you walk the street or are just shopping, look up to the nearest cam and wave, as we are constantly being spied on.  Soon when you are caught doing something illegal they can fine you, and steal the fine out of your account by the time you cross the street.

All this may sound crazy but I’m reading about that stuff all the time. We haven’t even touched social media as it is the biggest spreader of false news today.  The point is that tech comes in cycles and a bearish cycle is on its way.

The expensive Gold/Nasdaq ratio topped out at 6.38:1 and today this ratio stands at 5.25:1. We have a long way to go before the Nasdaq becomes cheap again when compared to gold.  Short term the markets can head higher but there are large amounts of protective sell stops below all present prices.

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April Crude Oil Daily Chart Review

If I was a conventional wave analyst like the majority I would turn this into a bullish wave count with little effort. Easy wave counting is for suckers that have nothing better to do but count every little micro mini wave structure which we need an electron scanning microscope to see. Most all my wave counts that I’m after are three-degree levels below Cycle degree and three-degree levels above Cycle degree. Besides that “All” commodities run with idealized diagonal patterns that few wave analysts use.

The bull market from 1999 to the 2008 peak is a prime example of how forcing a 3 wave bull market into a 5 wave bull market can keep us chasing our tails for decades.  Any crude oil wave counts only started in 1850 which is close to the Grand Supercycle degree wave 1-2. Before 1850 the world ran on whale oil until they were hunted to extinction. The majority do not realize that without this energy source our present world could have never been built.

In a few years time, you will never even see these intraday waves and we will never know if an expanded pattern actually happened. Besides that, all the Miniscule wave counting is worthless if we can’t see a big crash or big bull market coming.  They say you can’t time the markets and to some extent they are right, but any investment is only as good as it’s timing.  The 2016 low was another prime example as analysts were forecasting that lower oil prices were still to come. Yet crude oil bottomed at about the $28 price level and then started to soar. Next thing we know investors started to jump on the oil bandwagon as $100 oil forecasts started to become popular again.

I use the gold ratio frequently which gives strong hints when some asset class is too expensive or is to cheap when compared to the cash price of gold. The cheap ratio in 2016 hit 44:1 which is the most extreme ratio that I have ever recorded. I was bullish before oil hit a bottom until this ratio started to shift again. The magic expensive ratio number in the past hit 17:1 twice and oil turned and crashed each time. Today, and since January 2019, this ratio has been averaging just below 24:1. This April contract is sitting at 23.81:1 and for 2019 seems to be hitting the 24:1 Gold/Oil ratio brick wall.

As I post, oil is still heading higher just above the Fibonacci $55 price level and at the very least we should get a strong correction.  Oil is still under the sign of the Death Cross but found support at the 50-day MA for now. All it takes is some fake fundamental news to get published and all these bullish traders can turn into instant bears. The world is changing folks, where false news or propaganda and Artificial Intelligence (AI) brainwashing is becoming normal. What the movie “1984” showed us would be a Sunday picnic compared to what is already happening.

 

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Euro Intraday Downside Breakout Review

Has the Euro rally gone far enough? Just like the USD, we are dealing with a potential expanded pattern, except the trend is going the opposite way. Even though commercials are net long, they are not net long by very much just yet. This bearish phase is not starting to hit major COT resistance.

In some respect my wave counts are playing, “Chicken” with the COT reports and it’s just a matter time to see who blinks first!

The 4th wave rally in Minor degree ended at the top left of this chart and a full set of 5 waves in Minute degree still have to play out. Even though the decline looks stunted, it can extend dramatically when we least expect it.  Any move below the 1.120 price level will certainly confirm that this present rally is still a bear market rally.

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US Dollar Intraday Bull Market Update.

Some investors are looking for the US dollar to imploded due to the massive printing program they have done over the decades. Back in 2008, this bearish mania was at its record low from its 1985 peak. We were all warned over and over to get into gold and out of the US dollar, yet what happened was the exact opposite. Back in 2008 the USD exploded and has been in a bull market ever since.

This intraday chart is just a very small time period of this bull market, part of a 5 wave run in Minor degree. The 4th wave sure looks like it ended in January as the second low was a higher corrective low. The late January crash has been retraced, and at this time the USD sure seems like it wants to keep heading higher.

It would be nice to think that another wave 1 peak has completed in Minuette degree, but the commercials are still building bearish positions.

I would be very bearish on the US dollar but usually, any asset class will start to “Act” funny, before it reverses any strong trend, which the US dollar has not created just yet.  The Euro and our CAD have also made some bearish moves which should happen as they act inversely inside the US dollar basket.

I would love to see the US dollar break above the 97.711 price level as that would establish a new 2019 record high.

 

At this time the commercials have a net short ratio of 7.29:1 which is on the extreme side. I’ve seen worse so this can keep going for many weeks.  The speculators removed 1659 contracts of their long positions which means they got scared. Another way of looking at this is that my bullish wave count is playing “Chicken” with the commercials at this time. One thing that has not happened as well, is a strong vertical spike in the daily, weekly or monthly charts.

On the daily chart, the USD has found support at the 200-day MA and is still under the influence of a Golden Cross.

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DJIA Bull Market Reality Check

In the last week, the DJIA and other markets have kept moving higher than what my wave count would allow. Our present rally that started after the December crash is looking too much like an impulse that is just now adding a spike to the upside.  We also have an H&S pattern forming, and if this bullish phase is going to continue to new record highs, then any right shoulder that will form will not last. Of course, the opposite would happen if this bullish phase is coming to an end.

I moved the Cycle degree wave 3 over, but that may be a temporary location only. Commercials are still short, but not all by that much so future bullish moves can still happen. When exploring a new wave count it can take months in that new position before the markets make or break it.

It may be hard to swallow that an expanded move can crash this deep, and I am pushing it to the limit. The mainstream analysts just love it as the markets recover from a bear market low and are now escaping this bear market. The market is also getting close to the 200-day MA, so we will see how much power the DJIA really has.

So far the USD, stocks, and gold have been in sync to some extent, so they can all crash together as well. It happened in 2008 and it can happen again. The Gold/DJIA ratio has pushed to 19.60:1 which is still an expensive extreme by any stretch of the imagination. Right after Presidents’ Day, the markets will be at a full moon, which can also produce devastating reversals. March has been famous for major reversals and in this case, it could send the markets south.

This market bullish move, if there is more to it, must at least produce a correction and retrace about 60% of this 2019 bullish move. If down the road a complete retracement develops, then we know our present market bullish moves was a bear market rally, from an Elliott Wave perspective.

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Platinum Weekly Chart Bear Market Review

This weekly chart of platinum is only about $28 away from hitting another major bear market low. Any price below $760 would confirm that the big bear market which started in 2008, is still alive and well. Little over a 10-year bear market and it’s still not finished. Bear markets don’t stop on a dime, even though at times it might look like it. This bearish phase could still twist and turn just to frustrate the hell out any wave analyst.

The best scenario would be a huge spike to the downside clearly visible on the bigger time series charts. In other words, this bearish move can still do a lot of damage to a bullish position. Commercials are still net short here, so I would like to see those numbers swing the opposite way before we get closer to a bottom.

I think my last Market Vane Report came in on the 12th and it shows a new record low amount of bulls present at 20%. This is the lowest reading in “All” of 35 different asset classes that make up the report. The 24-month low bullish number was 16%, so it will be interesting to see if 16% gets beat again. The lower the number, the more bulls there will be that can come back and drive a new bullish phase.

The bearish phase from the 2016 peak to the first 2018 peak is the same pattern as gold and silver have, except gold is the only asset that ended pointing up. Gold’s price action is brainwashing us because many mainstream analysts cover gold, but platinum is pretty well ignored.

I have to scan many mining blogs to catch the intensity of the platinum news, which I don’t have to do with gold. Any business related blog will have gold commentary.

 

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Silver Weekly Chart Death Cross Update.

This weekly chart shows the 2011 peak which was an insane mania peak ending 31 years after the 1980 silver mania peak. Crazy peaks like this do not correct in just a few short years but can take many years. 2011 also was an ending to zigzag peak in Primary degree, and topping it off with my Cycle degree wave 3. We are now a little over 7 years old in this bearish phase, and even if another major bottom materializes it could still take until 2021 to complete. 2011+30 years could give us a new Supercycle degree peak in 2041!  Once the Cycle degree 4th wave bottom becomes more certain, we can take that date and subtract that from 2041. I have counted out several silver bear markets that have lasted about 13 years, which would give us a bottom closer to 2024, leaving us with a potential 17-year bull market.

This is all fine and dandy but there is a big catch! This impending bull market will be in the shape of another huge zigzag in Primary degree.

In the last few days, silver has peaked and has now started to correct, depending on what you believe in. A true bull market cannot let silver crash below $13.50 which is only $2.06 away from doing so. On the daily chart, there is a huge gap still open that won’t get close until the $14.80 price level has been hit. This may supply short term support but if this so-called rally is a bear market rally then a new record low silver price will come.

The Death Cross on this weekly chart happened back in July 2018, with the daily chart Death Cross happening soon once silver gets near the gap.

Also, the monthly Death Cross is now having a big Valintine’s smooching feast as the 200-day and 50-day MA are kissing. The short version is there is no Golden Cross insight anywhere!

The silver COT report below shows commercials in the highest short position in close to a year so that reading does not entice me to stay in any long positions.

 

Friday night will give us some updated COT data but commercials would have to shift dramatically, and make that big red line disappear!

 

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