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ElliottWave5.com - Gateway To Cycle Degree Elliott Wave Analysis

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August Slow Down Notice.

 

My updates could be erratic and even slow down a bit for August, as I take more frequent downtime in August as the weather permits.  Usually, it’s pretty slow in the summer months, and I see no major changes we have to watch out for, until the market bears get front page coverage.  I have an average of about 2000 pages read per month and expect to hit 1 Million pages read sometime in the fall. 

So, I would like to give readers a big “Thanks” as this is the only blog that is dedicated to Cycle degree wave analysis! 

 

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Gold Intraday Bear Market Update!

Intraday updates might be important for day traders, but I assure readers that I’m not a day trader, nor an investor. In my Cycle degree world only 4 degree levels have any importance at all. Minor, Intermedeate, Primary and Cycle degree. It is any big 5 wave sequence in Minor degree or more where all the money is being made. We can’t make any money, as we can only work for it and earn it. Get real gains mixed up with any unrealized gains will not work as well. Any trade can be up 300%, but we don’t make a single dime until that position is close off.

Gold ended on a very nice little spike to the downside which was followed by a counter rally fairly quick. This rally may still have some to go, but eventually the bearish gold trend will return. Once a trend takes hold, nothing will stop that trend until it’s draws to its final conclusion. This Primary degree bottom in Gold could end up between $700-$800 USD, which puts gold at the same bottom as 2008 was. Even if gold hits $691 it would not be a problem, as that would give gold a little more than a $100 window to reverse in. It still would take the rest of the year or even to late November (21st) before we can expect a bottom in the gold price.

When gold declines this much then it is a “CLEAR” sign, that gold is telling us that deflation is happening. Gold has been deflating since the 30 year cycle peak in 2011, along with gold stock ETFs. It may not finish until after, or close to 2021! Of course a huge gold counter rally will get in the way, which I don’t intend on missing as I always work 3 steps ahead of the crowd. Sorry, but only working one step ahead is no longer good enough, as I work on much stricter parameters. I’m only short IAU with a token 100 shares, but all my biggest short positions are with GDX and as of this morning I added a some GDXJ PUTs. All my trading account short positions are in the green and I have no intention of covering any of them until GDX also has it’s downside breakout. Not until all my short positions have been closed off, will I know how much of a new capital base I have to work with. I know what my goals are and I document and even print out different stages of this gold bearish decline. I will give full trading account discloser to my buddy this week, as I have added options into the mix.

Options always expire and go to zero, but any PUT can go to zero the same day you execute! It just about happened to me this week, but it’s no reason to panic, as a week later all these PUTS I have are now in the green!  Green is good in any direction we bet on, but we gain nothing if we don’t execute and capture this “green” 🙂

One single PUT or Call represents 100 shares, so eventually I always want to carry 250 options in any direction. I’m far from that folks, but planning is the key as it has to fit into our capital base as well.

 

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US Dollar Monthly 1980-2018 Review

When we go back to the 1980 era we see the USD hit a peak in 1985 before it imploded and started to end in 2008. All this is great but forgetting or ignoring the pattern the USD made to that 2008 bottom, is the key. Back in 2008 the world hated the US dollar as the majority were all trying to get out of the US dollar by any means neccesary, so investing in gold was the most popular theme. I had that 2007-2008 time period very well documented as the contrarians at that time also said tha the US dollar is going a a bullish run. Commercials were net long while the speculators (hedge funds) all were on the US dollar bearish side of the trade. One thing I can “Always” count on is that these hedge funds to “Always” get into a trap. In 2008 the US dollar bears were in a bear trap and there is only one way to get out of a trap and that is with a violent trend reversal will shake them up.

The wedge is one of my most important tools that help to see big moves long before they happen. I though the USD was just in a big bear rally, but that $89 price level bottom early this year, changed my mind.  I know that EWI has the USD as a bull market as well so I would just be confirming them but from a Cycle degree perspective.

The rise in the US dollar is “deflation”, by any sense of the word, which is the cause of the imploding gold/oil and many other commodity prices. World wide asset prices have inflated so much which is all coming to an end as all asset prices start to deflate again.

The US dollar is in a major bull market will not end in my lifetime as Supercycle (SC) degree wave is still ahead of us, and Grand Supercycle degree wave 3 is at least another 30 year cycle away.  I have what I call in-house developed indicators which I talk about but only my one on one clients get the detatiled explanation. I have a “Wave Pool” which has a collection of 25 or so futures wave positions in it, with about a 25 ETF wave positions as well. When some expert goes on a gold rant expecting $5000 gold then this forecast would instantly cause havoc with my wave counts, if I was wrong, but if my, “Wave Pool”, barely sends out a ripple, I know that the bullish gold forecast will never happen!

Fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes, as the markets are always wrong. Especially when the experts all start to sound the same, it always justifies taking the contrary position or point of view.

Any stock market herd of investors can never win, as markets will never allow the majority to take money from the same majroity of participants. The 80/20 Principle tells us that. (20% of the population owns 80% of all assets in the world)

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HUI 2011-2018 Bear Market Update!

The 2011 peak was a 30 year gold/silver mania peak that has still to finish the first set of 5 waves down in Intermediate degree. They are connected with zigzags  like “All” commodities are, with our last “B” wave in Minor degree already completed. The “C” crash bottom will be the last one when it finishes sometime towards the end of 2018!

It also means the angle of the decline will also increase as the HUI still has to fall below the 100 price level, to confirm that our present bullish phase was just a big bear market rally. It was only an Intermediate degree at the 2016 top, so any future “B” wave in Primary degree has to exceed the 2016 peak by a wide margin.

This anticipated “B” wave in Primary degree will be the last and final chance to unload all gold stock and bullion investments. I always work 3 steps ahead of the crowd, which I have been doing for decades already, as it is the quickest way for me to catch mistakes at the earliest time.

Those who are not ready by the end of September will be late, and as it takes major planning to reverse once the bottom is near!  I will use $5000 as my USD model account and have sacrificed about $500 CAD with 10 Puts on GDX (100 shares per PUT) which expire by September 18th. I will take any green offerd to me at that time but the pay back will all be on my CAD side.

This is all good as I also get to build up my CAD side as well as my USD side. As of this morning all my accounts are in the green! Which is a good thing, right?  🙂

 

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Gold Daily Chart: Fast Approaching $1120!

So far so good, as the gold price keeps heading south. I use the $1120 price level as the third leg of a bar stool, so when it gets retraced there will be no mistake or argument because of little chart differences. If I turn this into line mode, all new prices would appear and even some spikes disappear. I don’t need to fill out any of the intraday Minute degree patterns as I will never be a day trader. The most power comes from a 5 wave sequence rally or decline. In this gold bearish phase I do have a Minor degree move and that is my bare minimum to make it worthwhile to bet short or long on. Thinking that you are one step ahead of the herd, is not good enough in todays world, as I always think, draw and plan 3 steps ahead of the crowd. (A, B, C,) or (1-3-5).

Since the 2011 peak, the gold bear market is in a diagonal set of 5 waves in Intermediate degree, all consisting of connecting zigzags. At the $1360 peak I had a $15 gold window for the entire wave count to go wrong. These connecting zigzag moves must all be labelled, (ABC1, ABC2, ABC3, ABC4, and ABC5! ) There is hardly any difference between a diagoanl run and a triangle run except for their locations. In this case the triangle is in the gold Minor degree “B” wave, which also dictates the end, following the bearish 5 wave decline.  Modern wave analysts are calling this “B” wave as a bullish pattern, which is complete nonsense as far as I’m concerned.

When this gold crash ends I will be forced to look for the next higher degree, which will be a Primary degree “A” wave bottom. You never want to be left hanging in a short position when an “A” wave in Primary degree is completing. I have short positions out on GDX and IAU and have no intention of closing off and take early profits before it’s time.

The Death Cross in this daily chart happened at the $1300 price level and gold investors will find out how stupid it is to be invested at the top of a Death Cross! The Death Cross on the weekly chart is still ahead so there is a lot more pain coming for the gold investors.

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Euro 2001-2018 Review

Just like the US dollar is in a huge bull market so is the Euro as it makes up about 59% of the USD basket. Gold investors that think another huge leg up in gold is going to happen are ignoring the fact that the Euro was just in a bear market rally and new record lows will happen, by this fall. This would land us on a Primary degree wave 3, followed by yet another bear market rally before we bottom at a Supercycle degree “A” wave bottom sometime by 2041 or three years sooner. The Euro peak matches oils peak and not gold, so we have to be aware of this 3 year difference.  My last weeks Market Vane report only shows 46% bulls present which is still far from any extreme I may be expecting. Even gold is about the same so it’s not just one thing I rely on. All my futures wave counts are in what I call, “The Wave Pool”, which are all in-house created indicators that only a few one on one people get to see in any detail.  I also built a “Ratio Pool” and a “50-200-day MA Pool”.

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Australian Dollar Bear Market Update

Any currency that has supported any run in gold and silver sure have not been cooperative at all. It sure supports the bearish stance that I have. We just finished a Golden Cross, but the Death Cross is in the Australian dollars near future. That puts CAD and AUD on the same path and it represents deflation, as the US dollar is in a big bull market that very few people understand.  I think the AUD will play out a huge zigzag correction where part one may just finish this fall.

Either way,  new record lows in the Australian dollar will happen, as the last two year rally was a fake just like gold.

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HMMJ Bear Market Update

This HMMJ chart is still the best ETF to track the legal marijuana industry.   Since it is so new there really is no track record we can rely on. My wave positions could be so far off, even though we could be heading down to a flat bearish ending. My bottom trend line may not even hold, as we are close to a 75-150-day MA Death Cross in HMMJ as well.

 

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Silver 2011-2018 Review

I stretched my weekly chart to 1500, so we can see back to that 2008 crash bottom. The Death Cross has already happened just like it was on a daily chart. I have only used two indicators, Two parrell lines and one 50-200-day MA. We can slice and dice any wave positions, but the fact remains that the 2011 peak was a 30-year cycle peak of a gold&silver mania bull market top. 1980 was the previous 30 year mania peak which also burst producing close to a 20 year bear market in gold and silver.

The wave counting experts ignore silver most of the time becuase they are blinded by the glitter of gold as its charts pointed up,  while silver pointed down. Silver is a better leading indicator where gold is going to go to, than the other way around.  No gold or silver stock ETF confirmed any part of gold’s breakout attempt, which obviously has failed so far. The majority of investors are always wrong at the extremes and if investors think fundamentals will send silver soaring, then they have a nasty surprise coming their way. A Cycle degree mania bubble does not get corrected in a little 4-5 year bearish phase,  least of all with just one soft landing. The correction will still last until about 2021 which would make gold and silver a 10 year bear market!

I’m a small trader not an investor, as I would never knowingly build a heavy long position, when the entire world is sitting on Death Crosses! Below $13 is the big silver number to beat, and will be the price level that confirms the last 2-3 year bullish phase was all a smoke and mirror bull market. The angle of silvers decline should turn steeper as it has done many times before. Silver also has a tendency to slice through any Fibonacci support even if it may be just for a short time peiod.

Deflation is the real threat folks, as we come off this hyped up, pumped up world of inflated prices. What most silver investors don’t know is that the world population fertility rate is crashing and has been crashing, as the major boomer populations start to die off in record numbers. Dieing boomers are “Permanent Sellers” of real estate, with smaller and smaller new generations being born following every stock market crash.

I’m very bearish on this market until I see that a major support price level has been reached! The 2008 crash low or a bit lower, is where we should expect for all this to settle. By that time all my short positions will be closed off, with an impending huge bullish phase during 2019! This will also be a big fake, or bear market rally, and it will be the very last chance for metal investors to unload at near a bubble top.

Conventional wave counting will not work in the commodities world commodities are connect together with huge zigzags lasting over 40 years. Our next zigzag decline is far from over and this fall may only be part one of a 3 part move. (A, B, C,) in Primary degree.

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SIL: Bearish Trend Continues!

Now that we can look back to that 2016 peak it would have been a good time to close off any long positions and then revert to a bearish short position.  SIL has to completley retrace itself back down and below the point of origin to confirm that this entire bull market was nothing but a bull trap as new lows are certainly going to happen in the next 3-4 months.  I use a 75-150-day MA on these charts which shows that the 75-day MA is ready to create a Death Cross. I find that any Death Cross of this magnitude is one of the most important technical indicators that I have added this year.

The last Golden Crossing sure never lasted that long which does happen, but I would never knowingly invest at the top of a Death Cross. Death Cross is excatly what it sounds like as your account turns red long before they happen. I may not be able to buy in at the bottom as my main focus will be,  GDX,GDXJ, GLDM. We have lots to choose from, far more than what I will need in the next few years.  SIL should fall well below $13 and $8 would not be an issue. Paying too much attention to gold will always give you the wrong signals as silver and gold stock related ETFs tell us a much different story.

The angle of decline has to turn down sharper, which I’m sure SIL will do, along with all other gold stock related ETFs. Deflation is the name of the game and SIL is demonstrating this perfectly. The bullshit stories of how gold or silver can protect you in a deflation is totally wrong, only when gold or silver prices have been crushed will  gold or silver protect you from any future inflation.

My “A” bottom in Primary degree will be one of the best and last buying positions for the next bullish run that is sure to follow. If you are still sitting on the fence saying, “Well you never know”, it’s just a bad excuse for not even wanting to do the minimum amount of work required to understand trends. Missing a major bearish trend or a major bullish trend is unacceptable from my perspective.

When betting short, our timing must be impeccable or sublime so “maybe” must be turned into 20/20 foresight vision. Any new record low will just be part one ending, as the 2019 counter rally should be the biggest since 2011!

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US Dollar Intraday Flash Crash Review

This is just a raw data dump that captures what I think is a computer generated type of a Flash Crash! No human can execute in such a fashion. It also shows how stop sweepers work as millions get made by the markets hitting sell stop orders. The huge gap opened up but was instantly sealed right back up!  This US dollar has refused to die, because the US dollar bull market is far bigger than anyone would even dare think about. The US dollar can keep right on heading north right until November or so with gold below $800! Then we will see a USD crash that will surprise the majority again! The majority will never see the USD bull market coming but a few can.

Give it all until the end of the year to become very visible to everyone, after which the markets will be setting up for a major reversal!  This US dollar bull market is far from over and eventually gold and the general stock markets are going to sync up and stay that way for a very long time.  At a bare minimum the US dollar is on a 5 wave run in Primary degree and it will end on a Supercycle degree peak! Big deflation is coming folks and golds price crash in the next few years will reflect defaltion perfectly.

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1987+31 Years = 2018! DJIA Impending Crash Update

 

This is the DJIA index chart and I have been doing some basic calculations, counting forwards and backwards using the 30 year cycle. This 30 year cycle has a plus or minus error of 1 year. When I first checked this by counting 100 years backwards to 1918 and then to 2101 I found this frequency to be so consistent that nothing on this planet can match this forecasting indicator. If you are ready or not, there is a huge market crash coming 30 years after the 1987 crash, and 89 years from the 1929 peak.

This 89-year Fibonacci number is only off 1 year and we have 3, 30 year cycles completed. There are many other dates that all fit very well including the 100 year cycle, like 1918 + 100  years!  Cycle degree wave 3 has already ended in most part, while gold has also ended its Cycle degree mania peak in 2011. You can’t fight cycles escpecially this 30 year cycle. Throw in the solar cycles as well, and this 2021 time period is going to get interesting to say the least. You can’t beat solar cycles, so counting waves with the solar cycles in mind should never be forgotten.

The Death Cross in the DJIA is still going to happen on the daily charts, so longer term stocks are going to get hit with huge price declines. (Deflation) This fall will tell us more, which should be followed by a massive gold and stock market rally lasting into the mid-2019 time period. Deflation is the real threat as the USD will remain strong during the entire time, except by the end of this year. The USD can crash and burn sending gold and stocks back up, in a wild bear market rally that will shock stock and gold investors alike.

Since all my wave analysis is dedicate to Cycle degree, it makes it easy to forecast any SC and GSC degree future peaks. This 30 year cycle is not going away folks as the next 3 cycle peaks would be 2041, 2071 and 2101. How these 30 year cycles form is my speciality which only my paid one on one clients get to see in detail. Of course all this imformation is all out there for free, but only a few will do the work required to confirm these cycles. Many of my indicators have been developed in-house as I do not need any expert to tell me when the markets and gold are going to crash.

We are heading into a deflationary crash folks, where all static investors will get slaughtered as they all become trapped. Being invested at the top of a Death Cross is financial suicide, yet most people are oblivious to what’s going to happen.

The EWP is what you design it to be. If you just want mindless day trading setups, while missing every major move, then that is what you will get. We get from the markets what we want, and if you don’t have a clear goal of what you want planned out, then your hopes and dreams will not get realized.

In well over 2 years 3 months, not a single person has suggested that they are switching over to Cycle degree wave analysis as it requires real money trading to confirm it all. 99.999% of all wave analysts have no skin in the game so it would take someone special to keep Cycle degree analysis going into the future. This blog may only run until Cycle degree wave IV has completed, after which Elliott Wave 5.0 could go dark permanently.

I will never waste my time and money shorting popular companies and indices, as all the short players on this planet are trying to do the same thing. Betting the markets when they are going down is not a game for sissies, as you have to have impeccable timing to make them work well.

 

 

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GDXJ 2011-2018 Review

GDXJ hit its mania top in late 2010 and then proceeded to double top and  implode in a 5 year decline. Since this 2011 peak I had little understanding how a 5 wave diagonal wave structure is supposed to count out. I’m a fast learner as there are two major types of diagonal 5 wave declines, besides all commodities are zigzag bull markets that can span decades. The zigzag “C” wave ending 2010  is close to 41 years in the making. The next 5th wave in Cycle degree will also be another big zigzag, which will not peak until 2041. (Gold SC Wave III) Silver is a prime example of the zigzag world that commodities are “always” in, and using the EWP to count stock market type counting in commodities will not work.

This so called bear market is far from over as the last of the zigzags still has to play out. This could take to the end of November, maybe by the 21st of November 2018. No price support ever lasts and I’m sure this $30 price will not hold. Any bear market rally must always retrace itself back to the point of origin, and lower. If gold stock investors can get fooled by an Intermediate degree bear market rally, then they will certainly get fooled once the Primary degree “B” wave top is completing.

The Gold/Gdxj ratio has also been hitting a price brick wall at 39.27:1, which should increase as GDXJ continues with it’s bearish trend. I also have a small wedge showing which is a very bearish pattern. I don’t have any bearish positions on GDXJ but I do with GDX. I will be tracking about 3-4 ETFs and all the entry sequences I have mention would just be cloned for any other bear or bullish reversal we will run into. All the work I do is also scalable from the smallest home trading base to larger trading firms or partnerships. GDX, GDXJ,  IAU, GLDM I will consider to use for the capital base that I might have by the time this all hits a bottom later this year.

Deflation is the name of the game, not inflation as the world is coming off the biggest inflated asset world ever, and all commodity asset classes will take a big hit. The entire world is sitting on Death Crosses including gold, and if I ignore this simple fact than I would be wiped out like the majority always do. My buddy and I are having another lunch meeting on Wednesday, where we can spend 2 hrs into covering what I see on a one-one basis. I will be throwing PUTs and Calls into the mix but only PUTs at this time.

Since GDXJ will be off the charts we could expect anything between $8 and $13 as a bottom reversal window. I like to use the “window” description as all windows close shut. Your either in the position you want or your out. Betting on the markets to go down must have impeccable timing in order for it to work well. If you only know how to trade the markets in a bullish trend then we are only running at 50% efficiency or worse. The only way to get wave pattern theoretical maximum is by planning all the trades we expect to happen in the next 3 years. Even then, if we can only capture 80% of Wave Theoretical Maximum we would be doing extremely well.

This is not a horse race folks, as trading is an infinate game where we only have dropouts. I’m a gold bear rider or a gold bull rider, and the only thing that matters is that we achieve a new personal best trade. All the markets are always bluffing us with a pair of “twos” compared to my 4 aces that I want in my hand at all times.  Of course an extra 3 aces up my sleeve always helps. 🙄 Only my one on one paid consulting clients get to see my aces and what they mean.

For now I will use a model USD $5000 based trading account as that is the minimum we should start with. Not until the late spring 2019 peak will we know at what numbers we cash out at. Trading is all about taking the minimum risk capital, and then parley that into something we can use as a home based trading accout.

Trading is about avoiding all bear and bull traps, and that information is free on the internet today. The problem is nobody wants to do the work required to detect these traps, as everybody wants a get rich quick answer. My goal is to eventually draw $13,000 CAD per year which would give me a combined income of about $40,000 CAD per year. I assure you, I would be living high on the hog at $40,000 per year!

 

 

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TSLA Record High Update

This may be my last posting regarding Tesla as it may delist and go private. SpaceX is already private and TSLA may soon join SpaceX. The short players have been getting burned as close to 31% of the entire TSLA float has been shorted. Investopedia is an excellent site to get information about any market meanings and technical indicators.

They do a big spread about TSLA short players and how they get squeezed. Still TSLA is also approaching a Cycle degree wave 3 peak, but we may never find out if we can’t get private price charts on TSLA. Many companies have delisted in the past so it’s not that uncommon.

The Gold/Tsla ratio is a bit better at 3.4:1, down from an extreme of 1.13:1. I’m sure TSLA stock will not hold up, and sooner or later it will take out my 4th wave support at the $140 price level.

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UUP: US Dollar ETF Review

This is the ETF that tracks the US dollar and it will give us a different wave count as the 2014 low shows. UUP made another spike to the upside today which is far from finished as the US dollar is in a bull market of  Grand Supercycle degree or even Submillennium degree. A bull market in the US dollar is deflationary and will continue on its bullish path for a long time. I’m working 5 waves up in Primary degree as the 2008 bottom was one of my 4th wave bottoms in Cycle degree. I’m still very positive that the US dollar has an expanded flat with the 2018 bottom being wave 4 in Intermdeate degree. Techically this UUP ETF should break to new record highs until this fall, and then crash going into the first half of 2019. This Primary degree wave 4 crash will send the price of gold soaring, even though it may only last 5-8 months.

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SP500 2000-2018 Review

Many smart analysts have compared ourpresent 2018 pattern to the 2000 peak pattern, and yes they look very similier. The valuations today are about twice as much today as when the dotcom mania of  2000 imploded.  Will it implode again? Of course it will, this hyped up, max leverage world is going to reverse and deflation is going to ravage this world which we have not seen in 100 years. Any asset class that is not secured or protected will take a hit as prices will start to crash.

This is going to be a Cycle degree wave 4 crash, just like gold and since part of a flat is the same as part of a zigzag, I can see the markets syncing up with gold later this year.

Gold and stocks may even rally together once we start on the “B” wave rally in Primary degree.  Then gold and stocks will dance together in a 1-2 year decline that could send the sp500 down to 750 and gold below $500. Sp500 below 1500 is the bare minimum and that just gets us into the previous 4th waves, not even near any bottom.

Gold should dip well below $800 and when this gold price stabilizes bit then the markets should not be too far behind gold. We could see a wild triangle rally in both SP500 and gold, which will seal their fates for the 5 waves down in Intermediate degree.  The whole world is invested sitting on top of Death Crosses, so it will be a big deflatioary crash that not to many investors think that can happen. Gold will always have 30 year cycles, so the markets will just weave in and out during the same time period.

Why such a big deflationary crash is coming, is due to the world wide fertility rate decline, which has been in full swing since the 1950’s. Birthrates also crash after each stock market crash so smaller and smaller generations numbers are being born. This has happened many times and most notable in 2010 when I read a fertility crash after a market crash.

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VIX Daily Chart: VIX Bear Trap Review!

The amount of time the VIX has been correcting just about puts it into an Intermediate degree position. It’s still a VIX bear trap any which way you want to look at it, as it is only a matter of time before the fear gauge starts to crank up again. The Death Cross finished about a month ago but the Golden Cross will still happen. The commercials are net long while those hedge funds or speculators are betting with net short positions. One group is always wrong and it sure isn’t the commercials. Combine that with a wedge and you have a deadly chance of the VIX exploding to new record highs by the end of this year.

Fear is going to come back regardless, after which the commercials will be turn net short again. Deflation is the main threat as we come of the most inflated asset world in history.  Another quick flash to the downside can still happen, so we have to be aware of that.

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DJIA Weekly Chart 2009-2018 Review

By any metric you want to use this inflationary world is going to come crashing down and investors have no clue that it’s about to start happening this year. I have many in-house indicators as well that nobody gets to see except for, one on one clients, that have paid me some sort of consulting fees. There are no real limits to consulting fees, if your good.  I would be crazy to give out any investment advice, as it is clear to me that investors always get burned. 2015-2016 saw a nice correction which was the 4th wave in Intermediate degree. Any large degree 4th wave is also a warning that one more bullish phase is coming but that will also be the last chance for stocks bulls to make any money. The majority never win at this game as they always go down with the ship made out of paper!

At this time I can already see that the gold sector and the stock sectors are going to sync up, and it should be more obvious by the end of this year around the November 21st

date. This is a best guess scenerio, but if it comes close, then the DJIA will also rally with gold for the entire bearish counter rally to come in 2019. If the DJIA comes to a rest at the 15,000 price level it would only be on a temporary basis at best, lasting into 2019.

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October Crude Oil Update

This is the October contract and they all have different patterns for this 2018 top. Oil takes alot more work to get a decent position at this top, escpecially in trading the little Forex oil units. I have been short crude oil with real money for many months already and most of the time the short trade was in the green, except for the beginning. When I talk about being in the green, I always mean it’s to the good, regardless in what direction I have bet on. Some readers may not understand the concept of trading up or down, and they will never do it.

To be blunt, not knowing how to bet both ways, only allows you a 50% efficiency rate at best! This rate doubles if you can bet down just as easily. When any trade is all green in Forex, then you even get paid some interest for staying in the green.  I do not give out Intraday day trading setups as you will have to find that somewhere else. I trade between Minor, Intermediate, and Primary degree turns, that can take  8-13 months to play out.

The crude oil market is one of the most skewed trades that I have seen since the 2008 peak and crude oil will eventually crash right along with gold and all other markets as well. You can’t seperate oil from gold as they are intricately linked with the Gold/Oil ratio. Ratios are just glorified ways of producing odds, and knowing your odds is the what you must know, to trade in both directions. In the future I will not trade oil, as there are easier pickings in the gold sectors.

The Gold/Oil ratio was just under 18:1 which seemed to be hitting a brick wall all summer long. When oil started to crash in 2014, this ratio was also 17:1. There is no way that I would bet on long positions if they paid me. Then we have the Wedge sending us a clear signal as well, which they call a “bearish Flag”. It’s a rising wedge and they preceed any deadly bearish situation. One of the most deadliest indicators of a longer-term bearish decline, is the Death Cross! The Death Cross on this daily chart still needs to happen, but on the monthly charts the Death Cross has already happened.

In short the entire investing world are in long positions at the tops of Death Crosses, in all asset classes that I cover. A basic market decline/crash is coming and all those who are not prepared will get hit hard.

A bear market rally always retraces everything back down to it’s point of orgin, so only time will tell when this will come true. No little $40-$45 support level will hold for very long. Anything related to the heating and gas sectors, the Market Vane reports over 76% bulls still present. These are very bearish indicators as it leaves very few bulls to join in.

Deflation is going to be the real threat in the next three years, and oil and gold investors still haven’t figured that out yet!

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Gold: Looking Back A 1000 Days!

I have what is called a “custom bar” setting, which is just the amount of days I can look back. Normally I always use 500-day settings, but this time I doubled that to 1000-day settings. I use about 5 major indicators which the 50-200-day MA is just one that I use from the conventional world of  technical analysis. I also drew in the rising wedge I used many times and the bottom trendline sliced right through the Death Cross perfectly. There were many warning signs at the top as gold could not work past the $1360 price level. I had a $15 gold window where this zigzag rally would be busted!

I’m short IAU which is a gold metal tracking ETF. GLDM is new and I will track it as well. Once a trend change has taken hold then nothing on this planet will stop it until it comes to its final conclusion. Any bullish move that is acually in a bear market rally must eventually completely retrace itself, back to its point of orgin, and lower. $1200 is another potential support price level that should get breached. This would only leave 2 more to go before investors fear factor start to rise. Remember, there are sell stop orders down below the void! Every ETF has sell stops below as well.

We had the Death Cross at this scale already and others will follow. I hope I never get caught in a bullish trap as I took a big enough hit on losers already. All my short positions are in the green, except for USO and that is only a few percentages down.  I have three sets of PUT options out on GDX, but they turn red as soon as you put them on.

Two different sets have already flashed in and out of green, so I consider that a good sign. When I close all my PUTs, then I will see what I can use for the big trip back up.

Sure,we still have 4-5 months to go, but at the end it could go so fast, that if traders are not ready for it, they will miss it. Missing a major bullish or bearish run is losing money. It’s worse if your also caught on the wrong side of the trade. For the last part of the year, your going to see how many bullish gold investors are going to get hit.  You will read headline after headline how investors are getting fleeced as all markets start to crash.

I just got a fresh copy of the Market Vane report and none of it suggests that gold is going to the moon anytime soon. In fact it all points the opposite way.

Folks, we are at a major price bubble never before seen in history in all asset classes. This cannot continue and the markets will implode in a deflationary bear market that the majority will never see coming.

At this time my bet is that gold and the markets are going to sync up, but it may take the rest of this year to see it happen.

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Facebook Is Not Going To The moon!

Just in case FB investors don’t know, but Facebook is doomed just like all other Nasdaq related stocks. Facebook is running out of people as even the younger crowd is bored with it. After all how many cat and dog tricks are there? This rally that could be just finishing is just another bearish rally, but a small one to boot. If such a small counter rally can get the FB bulls all excited again, then they are pretty easy to fool on any counter rally of larger degree levels. Still, even if I had the available cash I personally would not short FB, Apple or any other popular stock, that many are also trying to short. TSLA also has an open gap, below present prices.

Elon Musk thinks he is bigger than the entire market, as he is constantly fighting the TSLA bears with his own stock purchases.

 

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Apple: Another Price Peak?

This morning Apple hit another price peak before it reversed. Any new record high could be the last record high that may take decades before it is ever achieved again. Warren Buffet is sitting on a big pile of cash, and that alone should be a warning that stock market investors should be building up cash positions. Just about every tech titan have massive cash positions, so they are already to buy low once the opportunity arises again. The peak seems to be $209.50 so far and Apple would have to crash to $190 to close off this huge gap. By any metric you want to use all the markets are in the biggest inflated stock market in history and when it gets serious in correcting, prices will head south.

Even the Warren Buffet indicator is flashing serious downside warnings as it shows extreme valuations. The Gold/Apple ratio also created a new record high at 5.84:1 this morning so.  The lower the price of gold goes and Apple does not follow, then this Gold/Apple ratio will only get worse.

I’m sure you are reading about all the share buy back programs being implimented, with Apple being no exception. I think company initiated buyback programs rips off all those rich investors as it is a clear signal that they can waste their money buying their own shares back at world record highs.  All their trying to do is manipulate their own stocks higher to appease rich investors.  The amount of money big corporations spend to prop up their share price, Apple alone could have launched a mission to mars many times over, and even stop of on Titian for a little sidetrip. 🙂 Hey, I would love to see that Apple Logo on a big Falcon 9 heavy rocket.

When high tech companies start paying dividends, then this company is signaling that, “Hey we got so much money we don’t know what to do with our cash”! So they give cash away to investors, who do and have done absolutely “nothing” to enhance the company itself.  Did investors work on the production line? No, they are leaches and are just along for the ride. If investors ride along with a trillion dollar company, then how much will they lose once Apple stock crashes by 70%?

Running with the bulls is dangerous, as it takes nothing to get trampled to death by the herd!

High inflated stock prices, ridiculous high real estate prices is not good for anyone escpecially for the younger generations. 2-3 years from now I’m sure we will have a new reality that no one expects today. Deflation is the real threat to investors and the Fed is fighting the very same inflation that they created in the first place.

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GLDM: New Gold Tracking ETF, First Look!

 

Here we go again as another new ETF tracking the price of gold at about a 10:1 ratio. The volumes are still pretty low, and that is mostly the reason we have so many gaps on this trip down.  Will all these gaps get filled?I’msure they will as I will apply my basic strong indicator that every gap has a 90% chance of getting filled. At this time the tally is 4 open gaps. Even at its worst low GLDM will still be above the $5 fear level when ETFs can execute inverse splits, with a possiable 4:1 reduction in shares.

The is some wicked trend and angle so we may not see a good bearish rally until GLDM hits the bottom trend line. We still have along way to go down, but it should match my gold futures chart very well. Readers are not going to get any wave positions on this chart until my “A” wave in Primary Degree arrives. I have never knowingly chased a bull market nor will I ever try chasing a bear market. There is going to be one of the best buying positions at an “A” wave bottom, so have patience for another 4-5 months.

What could be lining up this year is that the stock markets all crash but bottom along with gold. That would put both the DOW and gold end on an “A” wave in Primary degree.

This will drive investors nuts as by the time they figure out what happened, the markets will slowly start to turn bullish again. Once this first synchronization occurs then the odds become extremely high, for the two to stay synced for the final countdown as well. Both gold and the DJIA will bottom on a Cycle degree wave 4.

Think about GLDM sitting on a Death Cross, while the rest of the investing world is also sitting on Death Crosses. Real estate is going to take the biggest hit in history which will destroy most government and private pension plans or at least give them major valuation declines. Hedge funds will also get hit as they are those emotional speculators I keep talking about.  The majority of all analysts report what the speculators are doing, not what the commercials are doing. That works fine with me as it’s the speculators that “Always” get into one trap or another. When the speculators become very bearish, then I’m very confident that they are trapped, and gold will go the opposite way.

 

 

 

 

 

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The Warren Buffet Indicator: Pain Awaits For Investors!

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-favorite-metric-suggests-some-serious-pain-awaits-investors-2018-08-06

 

I think this MarketWatch post says it all! Combine that with the Death Crosses on just about every asset class, and we have the set-up for a serious crash going into the fall.

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Silver Monthly 1980-2018 Review

 

When we look back to the 1980 30 year silver mania peak, and compare it to our 2011 30 year mania peak, silver barely broke a new record high. Both peaks had a ridiculous forecasts associated with them, as the were calling for $200 silver in 1980 as well. If any wave analyst tries to count this out without Diagoanl Wave counting knowledge, then it will never work to ever make enough money to sustain a home based trading business. Gold and silver investors all believe that the next leg up in silver is going to blow all the bears out of the water and that their investments are going to pay-off.

I’m very confident that the Death Cross will not allow this to happen, as the Death Cross may even supersede all other indicators like the COT reports. The 2001 bottom could also work as a triangle in a “B” wave. One thing is very obvious that the entire silver markets are diagoanl wave structures, which is the norm not the exception in all commodities that I track. In commodaties, any wave analysts must instantly switch to a diagonal perspective, because normal stock market wave counting methods will never work. From the 30 year 2011 cycle peak, the decline is just your standard 5 wave diagonal decline, which are all connected with zigzags. Flats are a rarity in digaonal waves structures, but connecting zigzags rule!

The 1980 peak was a 30 year “A” wave peak in Primary degree, as the 2011 peak ended with the “C” wave in Primary degree. Missing any “C” wave in any direction, Minor degree or higher, is not an option anymore, as missing a major “C” wave bull market is where all the money is always made in   the first place.

Since the 2011 silver and gold peaks, both have a zigzag bear market in Primary degree to look forward to, which should be finished close to the 2021 time period. Three years of investor hell, but a smart traders 3 year dream come true!  Time is money, and if you get this market wrong then you actually lose double as much. We lose being on the wrong side, and we lose because another shorting opportunity has been lost. Only knowing how to bet long, means that you are running the EWP at only 50% efficiency, but that rate would jump by 100%, once we incorporate short selling into the mix.

I would be crazy to carry any long positions on the top of a Death Cross, as the Death Cross signals a big longterm downtrend still to come. The Death Cross has been used since 1929 helping the smart investor to escape the 1929 stock market crash, unscathed. For the last 3 months the 50-200-day MA has been incorporated into my wave positions as a permanent tool to use at major turnings. I’m working on about 5 of these tools that I post publically, but my in-house tools are only reserved for my most trusted paid clients.

You may never see another Minute degree wave positions counted out, as I only need all Minor, Intermediate, Primary, and Cycle degree peaks to build up a good cash base for a home based trading business. For my personal account, that magic number would be anything better than $89,000 USD cash!

Silver may have a $2 window at the bottom, which gives us little room to work with. SIL would be the silver miner stock equivilant, and it’s still heading down as well.

Commodities do not make soft landings folks, but they sure can end with a lot of violence in both directions. Silver under $13 US is the price to watch as below that number will confirm that sillver was just in a bear market rally.  Silver also had a traingle in its “B” wave so that forces my wave positions to end on at least 1 higher degree, which is Primary degree. Every 5th wave peak, “must always be capped” at all degree levels, and when I see so many analysts ignoring their 5th wave peaks, then I instantly know they are lost in their own wave counts.

The biggest deflationary decline is coming as the US dollar is in a far bigger bull market of Grand Supercycle degree. (GSC) It will be all the major corrections during this US dollar bull market, that will send silver and gold soaring and crashing.  Not until gold and silver has been crushed in price, will it be a good investment again like it was in 1950 and 2000.

Getting a 30 year bubble mixed up as just a continuation of a bull market, is the biggest mistake we can ever make. I could scream it all from the top of a building and the response would be, “Well, you never know”.  That response is normal from people that refuse to do any work at all in improving their analytics.

 

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BRK.A Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cycle Degree Peak 2007-2018 Review

 

If Warren Buffet keeps buying blue chip stocks then I would say he just about owns the DJIA with all his holdings. He bought into many stocks at record highs, with Apple being one of the biggest buys at record highs. Invest with the herd and you die by the herd, so I fully expect BRK.A to crash right along with all other indices around the world. The world is going into a major deflationary crash, which even Warren Buffet is powerless to stop. It will not surprise me to eventually see BRK below the $100,000 price level.

That is only the middle of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree as sometimes they push even lower, like the markets did in the 2009 bottom. Only the rich can play this game as the rich own 80% of the markets. Real Estate prices around the world are crashing already, as the rich can no longer afford to hang on to investment properties where prices  are falling faster than leaves of a maple tree in the fall!  Top smart money mangers have already sent letters to thier clients warning them. My friends and family members will watch it on the 6’oclock news this fall.

It is the world fertility crash that is going to completley change this world to a deflationary world. Our dying boomer generation are permanent sellers of real estate and they may even have several or more empty homes to get rid off.  For those than can wait 3 years or so, they will see a different stock, gold and housing landscape, from anything imaginable today.

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GDX Bear Market 2011-2018 Review

 

The 2011 GDX top was a 30 year mania peak  that is far from over in its correction. It could take well into the fall before we would only be a third of the way through.

The entire zigzag in Primary degree may not finish until 2021 or so as this would be close to a Cycle degree 4th wave bottom. That would work out to a 10 year bear market which is a bit shorter than some that took 13 years to complete. This inflated world is going to crash and gold will follow it down as well, reflecting deflation perfectly. Gold will not protect you from inflation unless gold hits a rock bottom below $500. Extreme prices for everything servers no one, as it stiffles all activity over time. Inflation is no longer the threat as deflation will be the core reason why gold and gold stocks are still going to crash.

If your waiting for the US dollar to collapse then you could still be waiting when your 6 feet under. The USD could be on a Supercycle degree bull market that will last longer than our present lifetime or 2041 and beyond. The cause is the great worldwide fertility crash that will intensive after every stock market crash. This happened in 2010 as reports of a fertility crash surfaced.

The Gold/GDX ratio is sitting at 57.3:1 this morning, which is better, but still a far cry from being cheap at 84:1. I also keep an in-house “gold ratio pool” of about 15 items that only my clients get to see and ask questions on. The same thing goes for my “Wave Pool of 50 asset classes” which is all in-house maintained as well. Also a Death Cross Pool would keep track of any Death or Gold Crosses that might be forming. My buddy and I meet about once a month, and I assure you we are in full planning stages, to squeeze the most efficiency out of every major move, for the entire Cycle degree move. We can only squeeze in a few hours but it is the best way to help each other to be very clear in what we have to do, later this year and in late spring of 2019. My wave positions will be continuosly tested with real money from 2018 forward, and the next three years.

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Gold Intraday Decline Update

Gold investors sure have the nerves of steel when they can see thier investments slide like this. Sooner or later they will throw in the white towel and then capitulate. On the daily charts there is a void below which is all peppered with stop-loss sell orders. The pros know how to trigger these stops, so they can fall in a domino fashion.  Gold could stay well inside these channel lines and just keep heading south for the rest of the summer. I know one thing and that is, that this angle of trend line will not remain as usally they drop in a vertical fashion before they finish. These types of waves can also produce gaps so if one happens, it will not surprise me.  At the same time any gap does open up, then the odds increase dramatically by 90%, that this gap will get filled on the way back up. Once $1120 support gets taken out then there is only one support leg left before gold crashes below $1047. You’ve seen the westerns where they lynch people and just kick out the entire stool.

Gold/Silver has finished a 30 year mania peak in 2011, and its correction is far from over. I think we are fooling ourselves if we believe that gold can only have a soft landing and then soar again. The soaring will come, but not until late fall or early 2019 as at that time gold could soar a $1000 dollars, back to $1700-$1900.

I do not need to fill in any Minute degree waves as I only need Minor, Intermediate, Primary and Cycle degree peaks to trade my entire Cycle degree crash in gold.

We are coming of one the most inflated periods of our times and this will not end well, for those that are holding assets for investments like real estate.  I trippled my custom bars to 1500, and what you see above is the 50-200-day MA, which crosses more frequently. I will try and track it like this for a little while, but usally 500 custom bars is my normal setting.

We had a quick Golden Cross and then right back into a Death Cross. The next sequence would be a Golden Cross, which could also be over and done with in a short  period of time.

Once a trend is set, nothing will stop it until it’s final conclusion, which could be gold $700-$800 by the end of the year. My buddy and I are in full planning mode for the bottom as the trip down is already in action and I don’t intend on changing it. I’m working on how options can work in the mix, but I’m a bit rusty and can easily goof up.

Remember one important thing about options, and that is never ignore an option that has gone to zero, as that option could spring to life on the very last day of expiration, and you better have your finger on the trigger during that day. I have a trader that had puts out on cattle, and it went to zero alright, but on the very last day it burst to $3000 USD and he manged to cash it in right at the last day, after his broker called him.

 

 

 

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IAUF Another Example Of Gold Crashing

 

http://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/ishares-gold-etf-debuts

 

This is only an example of what not to touch as this gold related ETF is actively traded! Well the shares traded this morning was 1 share! Nobody is too impressed with this ETF. Please do not get investing and trading mixed up as I will never give investment advice, but I only consult with clients about the gold cycles and futures charts. This is not a futures chart, and it has built-up no record pattern at this time.  This IAUF has much more to fall and I would not spend even buying a PUT!

We have many choices with gold related ETFs so I will never waste my time with this off-shore Based ETF.

 

 

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PetroChina, the first $1 trillion company, has sunk since 2007

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-29/the-biggest-stock-collapse-in-world-history-has-no-end-in-sight

This is an old story but they say it was the first trillion dollar campany. It flamed out into the biggest stock collapse in history. Apple has just closed off at over $207 which makes it the third trillion dollar company after Amazon. I want readers to look hard how PTR imploded as I’m sure AAPL or even AMZN will end up looking about the same.  For the last few years PTR has been going sideways and these moves are just bear market rallies and PTR should crash to new record lows by the end of this year.  This pattern is a zigzag folks and even once it hits rock bottom, chances are good another new new zigzag will form.

In late 2007 PTR peaked which is part of the 30 year cycle, and the next Super Cycle may not arrive until a few years before gold peaks.

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