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ElliottWave5.com - Gateway To Cycle Degree Elliott Wave Analysis

"ELLIOTTWAVE5.COM PROVIDES THE MOST USEFUL ELLIOTT WAVE INTERPRETATION I HAVE SEEN SO FAR!" - Steven Jon Kaplan - 2016 - TrueContrarian.com

Copper Another Death Cross In Waiting!

Every commodity I check and apply the 50-day  200-day MA to, I get the same reading. Copper has had one Death Cross, a small Golden Cross and now is set to created another Death Cross in the near future. The [A] wave back in 1980, add 30 years to that and we get 2011 after which copper also imploded!  Add 30 years plus or minus 1 year and we get 2041 which would be a Supercycle degree wave 3 peak. 2071 will get commodities to Grand Supercycle degree top

Of course investors are oblivious to this and refuse to call the Death Cross anything important. Well folks, Cycle degree Elliott wave will eat gold bug investors for breakfast if they think it’s a good time to invest in gold. I have added some trend lines we could catch the bottom of an “A”wave in Primary degree as well. How tall that “B” will be is uncertain, except it cannot go to new record highs if a zigzag will happen. When commodities correct they come down with a “thud” not on some soft landing like gold and copper has made. Does 2008 look like a “thud” to you! It sure was but that was a flat crash. 3-3-5 A flat disguised as a zigzag.

From the [B} wave bottom in 2001 and to the “C” wave bull market tops has just about formed a perfect impulse with a huge 5th wave extension. The world is going into a deflationary crash and no little $1050 will hold it back.  That long spike you see on the chart 4th wave bottom has a huge spike to the downside and it is also a signal to close off shorts.  Now the Death Cross is just ready to touch and the rest will be history.

I also have been taking the Market Vane report for a month or so, but I stayed mum on it as it is another report that should confirm my suspicion. How it works,it only tracks the bullish amount in the markets. The less bulls there are the sooner a reversal come. The highest bullish reading was 91, which is extreme to a crash low of 16% bulls. At 16% a huge bull market formed. Lumber was another extreme at 98% and it’s well on its way in its crash.

I have never had such a line up indicators that are telling me the everything is going to take a deep hit into this fall. The DOW should also follow commodities  down, but also could correct right along with gold.

I have personally warned my two sisters and daughter in what could happen into this fall, so they now whats going on and to make them feel better about my trading in this market. I told them not to worry as I might even make a few thousand on the trip down.

 

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GDX Bear Market Impending Crash Review

For the last 2 years and 3 months of publishing Cycle degree wave positions, not a “SINGLE” wave analyst has expressed any desire to want to switch over to Cycle degree wave analysis. So I will give readers fair warning as I may shut down after this 3 year exercise is done sometime around 2021 or the start of solar cycle #25.

I could stop all wave position postings and just put up a blank charts completely cutting off all wave counts and Cycle degree wave counting will come to a screeching halt, get buried in history, never to rise again. This site is not generating any funds to even maintain it, so this goes to show the lack of interest in Cycle degree wave analysis.

Even though it is the most real money tested wave count in history, viewers don’t even have the minimum of $5000 to start with.

 

I will show you my control entry numbers and what could be done if the planning is in full swing already. $100 shares is pretty lame but these are needed to test the waters and to start accumulating for the bottom. I have done this many times before where I push my trade allocation to the max. 500 shares of GDX below the $8 price will give you a good healthy position of $4000, and $1000 cash held back. The biggest fear factor will always come to play when we don’t have enough cash back up at a 4:1 ratio.

At major bottoms I have no problem with that but at major tops I do. This ratio should be reversed at every major top, play down lite is the name of the game and I use the 80/20 principle for that.   I will add a PDF that I use and then can be used to do all your calculations on for any trades you will ever do. I plan on having a $1200 share plan ready but may add more at the last minute.  All my short bets will be closed off as soon as we get to $8 GDX and the the control entry sequence must already be in place.

Once we know that we are averaged in below $8 then each and every trader feels the same thing connected to all that have at least one hundred share long positions.  We may be in the red but as soon as GDX crosses $8 every one around the world will see green at the exact time they were all online at the same time.  When you see “ALL” your lights go green at the same time as mine do, then this gives us a “green rush” that you will always remember for the rest of your life!

Now imagine we are still below $8 just hanging around watching the gold bulls fall from the sky. The minute you cross above $8 your entire position is already green and we just got started. This is not some fantasy I invented but it happens all the time if your right!  With a potential exit target at $55 your 500 share position in at $8, will cash out at $27,500 in March-May or so of 2019!

Now expand this to where a heavy hitter does the same thing but wants more than just wages, he wants a million dollar cash out, move. That involves 20,000 shares, but then must be shared with GDXJ to carry that kind of a load! You would need about a $160,000 trading account to pull that of. My calculations might be $66,000 USD cash out.  In the end going to cash is our home base when things get rough, or we switch direction. Cash is always the escape plan! 🙂  My plan is to get to an $89,000 base as I can draw out some wages with that and still build. Once you have a $233,000 trading account you generate income when you like, as you have room to spare. I have been paying myself already but only in very small $100-$200 draw downs.

I hope you see the importance of calculating out all your potential before, so there is lots of double checking and calculations that we must do. control sequence.rtfd   is a short PDF with just one suggestion of 5 positions for a control entry sequence. I calculate at least 3-4 of these to make sure you know the total capital outlay of any trade you will ever make.  It can be cloned, and scaled up for bigger amounts or companies.

I’m not an investor but a purely independent thinker that needs no outside indicators to make work. I rely on no other “Expert” opinion to survive in a major market crash and bear market of any kind.

 

 

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Impending Palladium Crash 1980-2018 Elliott Wave Update!

I ask you is this palladium pattern something you should invest in or trade up and down with futures trading. I have to check for the ETF to see if there is one to sell short on. The daily chart has also produced the Death Cross with another well below us on this chart. To be long (bullish position) at the top of this pattern is financial suicide as far as I’m concerned. Since the 1980’s this entire bull market just kept on going, and going, and going, until a little while ago as it seems to have turned a corner already.

How does a $600 Palladium crash work in your investment world?

Pure and simple folks, all commodities “must” be counted from a diagoanl perspective, otherwise what I say makes no sense, and your trades will suffer from performance issues.

When we only go long we are only running at 50% efficiency, so that can be massivly improved by knowing  how to go “short” and “long” when the opportunity arises.

All commodaties run as connecting zigzags, and I feel more and more comfortable in seeing them and counting them out. Like I said I have the largest collection of diagonal wave sructures on this planet and here is another one. Every wave position must be confirmed and wave count maintained and I don’t have the time if the gold market is going to go nuts.

Always remember that the void below our present palladium prices are filled with “SELL” orders as protective stops!

 

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Gold: Cycle Degree 5.0 Eats Investors For Breakfast!

 

In the last week or so my Cycle degree opinion got raked over the coals because of my believe that we are still completing a bottom. I have in that situation many times and I will cover it more down the page.  We are in once in “every” 30 years type of a gold market that will not repeat itself until 2041, and 2071, and 2101!  I think it is imperative that those that follow any EWP understand that some major wild swings are ahead, not trying to be obnoxious, I already have my zigzag impressed into my mind like a picture.  I personally do not need to show one wave position anywhere and I will still trade it, using all my best experiences, to get into a major bottom successfully.

Gold traders and investors don’t mix at all as it is the gold “investors” and stock market “investors” that are going to get slaughtered. Traders don’t lose money in a market crash, we are riding it down and will enjoy some profits as all those waiting for a gold bullish move are going to lose twice as much. Once because the loss of the gold price, and their net worth , second because they wasted another extremely good opportunity as well.

At this point gold has taken out support #1 and is heading down with a little spike, this is what the bottom may look like so you are getting a sneak preview of later this year.

I will not be buying gold trading assets but will stick to GDX and GDXJ as my gold bullion replacement. Besides the gold ETFs will be the first to let us know that a top is coming.  (gold/Gdx ratio) All those that are holding gold stocks because their advisor got them “into” gold, thinking they are looking for wave 5 in Primary degree to unfold.

Being out by only “ONE” degree wave analysts will be out by a mile. Because investors continuously suffer losses in crashes, I will always be a trader at heart. The reason I became a traders is because I suffered severe loses by the hands of investor advice or suggestions in the first place.

My focus is going to be on gold for the rest of the year as shorting is one of my favorite of not missing an opportunity.  With a few more people joining this Cycle degree wave 4 in gold will be continuously tested with real money and GDX.  Any futures traders must do the same thing as with gold future you can bring in astounding “green” returns.

Gold investor are parked on a Death Cross and the daily cross has already arrived and gone. We can see the little knife edge peaking out from the pack and by the time gold falls below $1045 the gold investor will be freaking out as billions will be wiped of the books in a flash. So far so good as my USD short positions will keep riding the gold bear down, and then up again into late spring of 2019. The 2011 peak in gold is not some flimsy Primary degree top, it is a Cycle degree wave 3 top and it’s correction and bear market is “FAR” from  finished. The last thing I want is to see, is my readers get hurt because I didn’t see a $500 gold crash coming.

This Cycle degree zigzag crash I have visualized in my mind, is the same as the one that Robert Prechter counted out in his video.  I see all these Death Crosses forming and I have warned three of my relatives already so they can watch it on the 6 o’clock news channel. Things are going to get ugly fast as the entire world is concentrating on that $1050 support for gold. I do not bet my future on a fricken flimsy “price”, as any real bottom was always $800! Investors are going to find out the hard way and I will not lose a tear drop for their losses!

I have tons to cover and some more trading detail to explain so we can have  good bottom entry with GDX. Everything I say can just be cloned or scaled up for any different capital base, but with $5000 USD being the bare minimum to start with for the Plan “A” trade setup.  I have been waiting for this since the 2011 top as it is my type of a market, wild and crazy!

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Last Of The Bitcoin Postings

This will be my last posting on any Cryptos as I will delete and kill it off later this year. All my efforts will be switching more to the gold market, as that is now constantly tested with real money.  There are no established cycles in Bitcoin, like there is in gold. I can’t make a living trading such a boring market and I never plan on doing anything in this market anyways. Basing a life on a little electronic packet is not my idea of a stable platform. Gold may crash and burn regularly but long term it will never disappear and will always have a $400 crash base even until Submillennium wave 3, in 2101 peaks out again. Between that time, there still will be two cycle peaks to go even in deflation.

I have token Bitcoins that I gave to the local beggar and tips in restaurants, and to family as a gift!

 

I find my Silver Stone far more fun as it is one big 10 ounce coin of pure silver!  I use it to bet between friends. This coin had a $238 CAD price yesterday, so there is value in this coin where owners will not throw it away. I hope to buy more when silver crashes into this fall. So if your bored with Bitcoin then the gold market will provide all the excitement you will ever want.

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GDX Crash Bottom Plan [A] Review.

Even when we are still far from the bottom my planning process for the bottom is in full swing  and has been for months already. If you think this is too early then think again, because you are “late” as the control entry sequence should be worked out already, you can not be late to this gold bear riding party or the performance will suffer.

Lets say we are just a few dollars above the $8 market I will close of all my GDX short positions and then put in my control sequence right away. The reason for this is many times ,the last move can be deadly as the bottom falls out with gold stocks. GDX can crash right through the $8 price level right down to $7 in one move that nobody can catch. All your orders must be set before this and then you just wait for the markets to do their thing and all your orders would be picked up instantly when this happens.

As soon as this happens you will be deep in the red and panic will ensue! Oh my god! What have I done” I see “red” and I’m down 50%.  For the very first time it is scary when we see red but it is only a loss when you take the loss. This sea of red might have 5 orders in it and not a single color of green is showing. Frickin scary right? I will tell you in blunt terms that I always see red before I see any green at all.  Your last buy order will give you first clues that a turning is in progress by flickering green here and there. At that point your 50% draw down moves to 48% or 46% and you will slowly see the red numbers get better, at that point the turning may be in place. At about the same time more green lights will show until one day “ALL” lights are green and we have turned the corner. When you see and experience this as it happens,  you get a rush that is hard to explain to anyone. Green is Good!

Also remember that if you started your control entry sequence under $8 then as “soon” as GDX crosses $8, your entire account will be green, and you are just barely out of the $8 gate!  From $8 you should already be in the green on all shares, and it should stay green for the entire run back up to $55 or so.

This is not some tall tail I’m telling you, but it comes from experience as it is my preferred way of entering a major crash bottom. The same thing already is happening with my short bets on GDX  and another drop will send my 500 shares into the green.  I think I may have the chance to look for a 1200 share position as that duplicates my 2008 crash bottom order as well.  I screwed  that up a bit but still came out smelling like a rose with one of my best GDX trades of my life.

We could get the same this time, but we have a much bigger support price than 2008, as in 2008 we had no real bottom.  At $8 this first leg will complete and then we start on another huge counter rally that will “also” be a bear market rally. After the big peak is in, GDX will suffer a bear market that will destroy any smooth talking  gold bull that is in the way, as gold bulls will get shredded again. This time it will be a bigger shredder as the gold bulls will be fat with profits as well. If someone  comes along and tells you that your are breaking the rules when buying low, then tell them, “What fricken rules? There are no rules in a bull and bear fight, in a ring! The only thing that matters is that you find the first golden bull and you ride for a personal best trade. I don’t give investment advise as I’m not an investor but a trader speculating on major turnings.  I only look for the best possible positions in any 5 wave run as that is what creates long or big moves and are a sight to behold.  An investor rarely does this as they never would skew such a trade as it is to risky. I do it all the time to supplement my living as I’m rebuilding my account.

What we all must know before hand, is that if in a panic and you don’t know what to do or are confused, then go to your account at night and put all orders to sell at market and you will jump into cash before you get up in the morning. “GO TO CASH”, if need be as that is the traders safe-haven world! We don’t need fancy footwork in trying to stabilize our portfolios as we have none. In 5 minutes of opening you will be as stable as a rock, and then get ready planning for another turning. Capital preservation is the top priority here, nothing else matters. If ever you were to carry your 100 shares, down, up and then down again. Nobody on this planet has the right to tell you how to trade because if I had a trading house you would be the first to join my club.

This is long and drawn out but I will add some more pages below until we cover the full 3 moves we need to make to ride both ways. By only knowing how to go “long” we are only running at 50% efficiency and that to me is unacceptable to leave 50% of the money on the table.

I will post my control entry sequence later below this page, so we will be prepared as best as we can before this crash hits bottom. (5 orders)

All what I have just explained, I explained to a 28 year male Millennial last night, and he is a young working native kid.  After this I asked him, “does this all make sense to you?

And he said, “Yes”.

When at this low bottom and cries of deflation are rampant, then think about the real fundamentals already in place that will send the gold price soaring again. I will let you figure it out as it is important to only those that are “in”.

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The 10 Ounce Silver Coin, A Beautiful Coin

Border Gold

Ten Ounce silver coin I call the “Silver Stone” in US dollars

 

I have one of these coins which I take with me to some family gatherings and you should see the looks in their faces when they see this coin for the first time. When the price crashes I will by some more and give one to my granddaughter as she was born in 2017.

This coin has a very tough tamper proof seal on it that can take a lot of punishment. Before I went and got this I printed out a price and it was 238.08 CAD. Two hours later I picked up the coin and it fell .08 cents.  After this crash is done and finished gold and silver prices will be very low, but at the very same time they are producing the base that will hold for a very long time looking ahead to the first 2041 year cycle.  I can’t confirm it just yet but I tried to calculate the time period right up to 2101 and found that this 30 year cycle has a 1 to 2 year plus or minus forecasting window which is so close it has made a big impression on me that I can’t ignore. I know the reason for the 30 year cycle, and I will not divulge it freely to people that have no skin in this game.

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Gold Daily Chart: Falling Gold Bulls!

 

I wasn’t going to post this due to some guy laying a claim to his wave count. This is the typical crap wave counts put out by people that have “NO” clue they have to use diagonal wave counting methods. This wave flipper will be flipping numbers around until pigs fly, and will destroy the follower who wants to trade thinking he is in a bull market. My one year old great granddaughter can paint better than this with her little fingers. Obviously he is painting you a very bullish picture at the same time that a Death Cross has already formed. This wave counter,  has no clue at all that a $500 gold crash coming.  How would like to bet 100 shares on his wave pattern?  This wave count will give you a loss compounded, because you lost another opportunity to trade in the right direction.  You don’t have to agree with anything I post, but I can shred any of these wave counts with ease. This is the crap that is dealt out by people that have “NO” skin in the game, and have never traded an ETF in their life.

The chart above breaks “every” EWP rule under the sun yet this comes from a very popular site. This type of counting is rampant on the internet and they are easy to spot.

I may sound that I’m way overboard, but I’m just sugar coating it for public consumption.  I have full confidence in my work under Cycle degree, that I can shred “ANY” wave count that you will find on the internet. Even if you get 10 people helping you search a wave count for gold, that I can’t find “MAJOR” mistakes in.

One day I will put up a bounty for a flawless wave count, with a 10 ounce silver coin as the prize, but, you must put up a Silver coin if you want to bet!  I have my silver stone bet against the bull market, so when gold breaks below $1047 I win another coin. I will be posting more on this coin as it is great looking and I love the shine.

It may be hard to understand why I’m very bearish on gold and investments but what you see above is a triangle in a “B” wave which the experts call the start of a bull market!  Does this pattern look like nice clean cut 5 wave sequences? No, not on your life.  Gold was fighting against the trend for the entire time, and that is the reason why gold is so choppy.  This gold price bet requires gold to fall below $1047 but from a technical stand point one support leg has already been taken out. The gold bull investors  have already lost, they just don’t know it yet!

I even gave them a 3:1 advantage and I think they will still lose. Everything is still on track and you can see the first part of the falling knife already!  Do you see it coming?

For my readers I will wait until gold falls below my “A” wave and then we only have one more support leg to kick out the golden bull, and the rest will history.

When this happens then news on gold will explode and they start fleeing a sinking ship like rats!

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Silver Weekly And the $13 Crossing.

On quick posts I will not fill in every little fricken wave, as I count during the day all the time with my finger and eyes!  When you see any wave counting analysts fill in every little wave then that wave count is feeding you a bunch crap! I may be nasty about this but I’m sugar coating it for sure.  The gold bulls are ignoring silver and it is just $2.50 or so away from a new bear market low. The magic number is $13 and as soon as silver hits below $13, then the 3 year bull market comes to an  end!  The gold bulls call it a bull market!

I call it a bear market rally and they always have to retrace themselves.  It may take another month and when it does how do you justify silver to go to new record lows and gold soar? Give me a break! It will be silver that will drag down gold. We have a Cycle degree zigzag to go through so silver could hit $8 and when it gets between to the Cycle degree wave 4 low then silver and gold bullion will be in a major Buy&Hold that will last to the next SC degree wave three top in 2041 and 2071, and 2101. $400 for gold.  I can give you the two most important wave positions for gold and silver but I always have to visualize it first for months and then draw it out by hand and white board to make sure it has a very tight fit. 2101 is Submillennium wave 3 top in gold and silver. So you can understand how important it is to test Cycle degree wave 3 as it will be the base for the next hundred years that the younger generation of wave analysts may be able to use.  The 30 year cycle is real and it is so reliable you could set a watch on it.  Mind you it would have to be a grandfather clock!

I have to see my patterns first before I count them out, as wave counting is only the secondary act to confirm what you see.

If the entire crop of wave analyst do not see a bear market rally in silver then it is a good idea to short their views. The market is not always right, as it’s a liar and a cheat, and it will rip you off with it’s mood swings. It is the wording that I use when somebody says that the “markets are always right”

It is the job of Cycle degree wave analysis to become the bullshit detector which I think it does an excellent job.

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SP500 Daily Chart: Death Cross Watch!

This Sp500 rally has now started to fit much better as a newer high has been reached. The last five waves are a diagonal set of 5 waves. Even looks like a triangle pattern.

In the gold market this exact pattern fits into modern wave count as a bullish move not a bear market rally. This  SP500 is on a small bear market rally and it will retrace itself.  All this chart has to do is make a sudden drop and the 50-day MA will slice the 200-day MA and then the market investors are sitting on a Death Cross. Gold is doing the same thing so a huge part of all assets are going to see price crashes along with stocks.

Fundamentals do not work at the extremes and if your not a contrarian in this business then you become the victim. Do you want to be the victim when the stock bulls start falling from the sky?  The EWP is always contrarian and if you have the same wave count as the stock bulls mode suggests then our wave counts are totally wrong. Every wave counter gets caught in a trap this way, and I use their wave counts as something not to do.  When a wave count is wrong you can always bet against it! From a Cycle degree perspective, all internet wave counters are counting all the “bad” wave counts for me. They save me a lot of work, thank god! 🙂

Apple may have topped and the same with Netflix, a few more need to topple as the falling “elephants” will crush any bulls that remains standing.

In Cycle degree the SP500 match gold very well, the only difference is they are a bit out of sync but gold and the SP500 could crash the same by the time the end of  Cycle degree wave 4. Won’t that surprise the gold bulls!

My intraday wave counts are going to suffer, as I’m not a day trader and never will be. I’m sure the stock markets crash will coincide with gold’s $800 bottom so I could even pick up the count when that happens.  It is far more important to watch the gold market and the anticipated swings in gold are going to be wild.

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Gold Weekly Chart Gold Bulls:0 Gold Bears: 1

I want to be clear that I do not post charts just for public entertainment, my wave counts are “working” wave counts constantly being tested with real money by myself  for sure as I need my EWP style to generate a home-based living trading the gold markets.

Which is better and more accurate to use? A forecast built on pattern recognition or your betting platform based on a single price? Which comes first Price Or The Pattern?

I have done this when they forecast the DOW going to $1000 while I had it going the other way. This scenerio is repeating itself but now it’s doing it in gold.  In my world price means nothing, while pattern recognition is everthing.  The gold bull experts are basing a future bullish gold move on one single price.  How can a wave trader that knows how to carry bigger positions base his future on price? If I bet long in this type of a pattern then my home based trading business would be out of business and  (Broker Bob) “BB” would be siting on the sidewalk with his cup asking for donations.  I have donated a token Bitcoin to a street begger, so you can imagine the look on their faces, it’s priceless.

We have 4 bumps to  take out and when that last $1047 prices gets taken out, I win my Silver Stone. (one 10 ounce pure silver coin) I have even given the gold bulls a 4:1 advantage  and this morning the first bump has been retraced.  Anything below $1200 will now take out the second leg of a barstool, so that leaves the gold bulls sitting on a barstool with only 2 legs left.  Is this where you want to be, wishing for gold $1400!

I will be posting more frequent gold postings and silver coin postings as well but my underlying job is to find the best possible wave positions where I can trust it with larger positions. I have traded gold and USD futures and I trade these ETFs about the same way. Strong positions if you think you are right!

I don’t mind saying it as I find pleasure this time in wiping the smart ass looks on gold bulls faces when gold crashes below $1047. I have about a 1000 share short position and after this morning nothing will be change. I never screw with a trade after it’s done, I do nothing to it because it destroys your efficiency and kills any cost averaging.

I don’t think that people don’t realize that we can increase our Elliott Wave Theoretical Maximum (TM) by 100% when we know and practice selling any market short.

To catch any stunniing move I want to make sure that there is at least one 5 wave sequence in it, and preferably in Minor degree and higher!  We are in an Intermediate degree 4th wave, so this gives us one move left in 5 waves of Minute degree.  I don’t think people realize the compounding nature when we can trade in both directions.

Yes I’m rebuilding a $12000 trading account but if all goes well into the fall then I may end up doubling this number once, “ALL” short positions are closed off.

Look up, somebody has dropped the knife and I’m sorry it slipped out of my hands but I just couldn’t hold it anymore!  Once the flurry of activity increases at the bottom and “ALL” buying is finished then we can relax until well into the spring. (March) Before the top we have to be out of our long gold positions and into the last 5 wave bearish run.  Riding the 5 waves is what my Elliott wave is all about so we can rebuild with much greater speed than the majority can deliver.

 

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HUI Big Picture Update

I firmly believe the entire commodities market is diagonal in nature and its the main reason the markets are so choppy. Diagonals are just big zigzags linked togother over hundreds of years.  This is why the bull market start, is the [C] wave in Primary degree.  The [B] changes it’s role and is now a “Buy”signal.  Our present day market is the first part to a three part Cycle degree correction and we are far from finished. If this present rally is in a bull market it has to soar. It’s not, so I look for a bearish point of veiw right away.   It may take until years end but this market will not hold up and the others will all follow.  A bear market rally always retraces itself ,so any new record low must happen.  We are looking at this HUI chart with the knowledge that that Death Cross is just below weekly gold. How can one justify  keeping clients in gold investments?

You can scream as loud as you want yet they don’t care.  Once this HUI breaks a little more, then you will see the knife falling. Basing your whole life on a number is pretty scary if you ask me.  I have to make a better living for myself and if I was invested I would be wiped out. I bailed out but the knife cut me and it was real blood.

I’ll make it all back on this short trade as I have done that before and may even double my cash out by the end of this year or sooner. I’m loaded for bear and so far so good.

The gold bulls don’t realize it but this type of pattern could produce a gap down very easily. Imagine gold gap down $50, what horror there would be?  As long as gold falls below $1047 I win my 10 ounce silver coin. They are beautiful coins and I nickname it the “Silver Stone”.  There is more to this betting story but I will not divulge it now as the $1047 price has to be breached first.

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GDXJ 2011-2018 Review

I know that there are many other good gold stock related offset trade with and GDXJ shouldn’t be ignored. Just from what I see is that I will try and allot a small bunch of US dollars for this. We have no real track record but as long as we see that Cycle degree top we can track all the rest.  Maintaining and  fine tuning  is a continuous job.

I have gone the full Monty on this so you can see what’s possible with simple lines and observations of gaps. I show the gap where GDXJ came to a screeching halt and reversed dramatically. ($55) Investors take those kinds of hits but traders that were on the ball bailed out.  I had a pot stock that the same basic move and I let it go for as long as I could, I then bailed out. About a $5000 CAD cash haul. I do not care about the percentage bullshit thing that investor do, because I know that a good cash haul will help me push to $21,000.  If I had a bigger account I would hit this with short bets.

Even GDXJ only has one bottom as it needs two folks (A and C). Where is the second bottom?  When you look at this chart and think wow it’s going to the moon, then stop and think about the Death Cross on weekly gold!  The wedge sure tells me the same thing, so I’m very bearish on GDXJ. All the horizontal lines give us the whole Fibonacci numbers which I “Always” use even if I don’t post them.  Since GDXJ stopped close to $55 we know that $89 could be another peak.  It also leaves the last $144 fib number as your last one. $89 would be my first target because it has to go higher than my 4th wave peak in Intermediate degree. $55×1.618=$89  To me a target between $89 and $144 is doable.  A correction at $55 would be something to watch out for when the time comes. In this case never test this until it crashes below new record lows.

I gold bulls are convince a bull market is coming but I just love a good old fashioned gold bull trap! Every complacent gold bull is going to get a rude awaking when this crashes into the fall.  Look at that “B” wave bottom in Primary degree which I kid about being a Grade “A” controlled entry EWP number.  “A”waves in the EWP and this is a big one in Primary degree.  Whats going to happen in the next 3 years is a once in 30 year event that will not repeat itself until 2041 when gold hits $2225.

In general since January 2018 the Gold/GDXJ ratio has barely changed since then. Gold/GDXJ ratio at 38:1 is hitting a brick wall, so that also adds to my bearish out look.

Cheap in the Gold/GDXJ ratio is 62:1 which may not get hit but we want to keep an eye on it on the way down.  Another indicator I have but have not posted, is that the Market Vane reports gold traders at only 50-50 bulls to bears, this is not good as we want this number skewed dramatically.

I know that the USD is on a much bigger bull market than we all are expecting, but I know that it can happen as SC degree US dollar is a real kicker in this gold bearish phase.

When this hits bottom then expect the USD to make a big crash of some type that will push all gold related assets up. It could be one wild ride so any controlled entry sequences must be worked out first. I use about 5 steps and adjust if things move fast.  Most of my trades are done at nigh while markets are closed for early execution. This way you don’t have get out of bed in the morning.

 

 

Hits: 3

GDX Bull Or Bear Market Rally!

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I have been raked over the coals for being so stupid in being bearish on gold investments that it borders on insults. For all you goldbull investors out there you are basing your decicions stricly on price! In this case just a bit above $12 in this GDX chart. If you don’t belive in this trend then all I have to say is test it, test it with 100 shares short GDX and see what happens. If the short postion turns red against you then your bullish stance is correct but if the GDX short positions slowly turns to green them the bearish trend is in place.  I do this all the time as my initil 100 shares is always the first short position. I have seen these setups before and they can make astouding drops in short order .

To be fair I will post my USD short positions just to let readers know that this GDX decline is being tested with real money and using no stops to do it. Yes I said “NO stops” anywhere.  If you use stops that means you have no trust in what your doing. I will not allow myself to be stoped out when I want to be in a position that I have been after.

I’m not an investor I’m a small trader trying to rebuild a trading account in US dollars. You don’t need a billion dollars or even a million dollars. If you build up to a $233,000 trading account that you can flip long or short, you can draw some wages when prudent. Even now I draw a $100 every month or so.

 

I only short 20 sahres the first as I had no US funds to speak of,but I have increased all my short positions to even lot numbers.

Do not look at the red as a loss because if you do then you should not even attempt to do what I normally do. That’s a drawdown red you see, it’s only a loss when you take it.

We are at a historic 30 year cycle peak and this only comes along one in 30 years so this is a time of traders not investors. Investors sit and wait, and wait, and wait, in along position for the one time gold stocks might explode. Sure I tested this to long side in my CAD account and I paid for it, so that is the sign to flip directions.

In gold the Death Cross is just below, the Death Cross in the DOW will get hit so I don’t see it time to invest in gold stocks for any reason.  A good hot wave count  is imperitive, and that we are always ready and that includes you having three control entry sequences ready to go at all times.

I have a Cycle degree wave 4 zigzag bear market with an ABC correction in Primary degree so you need three Primary control entry sequences to make up and you can call them Primary “A” controlled sequence, a Primary “B”controll sequence of the Primary “C” wave entry control system. 3 plans for one degree level and at the smaller scales just you can make one for Intermediate degree. Just perfect it and clone.  In futures nobody invests as they move so extreme that you are forced to become a trader.

There is a time to trade and a time to invest and this not the time to invest.  I must stress that 1919 was the end og a silver bull market and that a horrific bear market ensued  that lasted for 13 years. This is a 92 year cycle to the 2011 peak, which includes three 30 year cycles. 2041 will be the next SC degree wave three peak in gold.

I can only say these 30 year cycles are very regular and I know what the cause is but need to do more work on them.

Just on my trades alone this has been the most tested Elliott Wave pattern in history but much more needs to be tested. We have a perfect time to wave trade in the next three years by only having to swing three times.

Hits: 5

Gold Daily Chart: How’s the Death Cross Working For You?

My believe that this gold market is nothing but a bear market rally should continue. We have our first H&S pattern and technically from my perspective,  the market is doing a good job of confirming it. The market will confirm my wave positions and all I have to do is click (Short sell) and sit back and watched it happen. I talked to a few gold bulls and tried to mention to them what a Death Cross was, and I was just laughed at.  They scoffed at the idea that gold even remotely has the chance of falling below $1047. If there is anytime in history how pattern comes before price it is now!

The bullish herd of gold investors are basing their investment decisions and their clients on a little $1050 gold price!   If I keep my readers in this position due to my wave analysis should never be allowed.  We have three more support prices to knock out and that could happen in a blink of an eye.  This morning I shorted GDX with another $300 shares and tried with IAU as well. Sad to say I have reached the limit that my account can handle, so from here on I just let it ride. If you are late to this bear party and are just jumping on the Golden Bear, then as soon as gold falls below $800 then “ALL” short positions should be closed off with the highest urgency.

Until then I will ride the goldden bear and try for another personal best time spent on the back of a golden bear. Well anyone that is testing this market with small 100 shares will know how it feels to have the market have your back as this crash will intensify.

Folks I will “NOT” give you wave counts except for Minor degree or better as this decline may not even give you waves that we can acually see. A long single “C” wave will work for me. Also by not doing this I’m setting a trap for all the phoney wave counters that are out there. If I stop all intricate wave counts for a few months then all you have to do is go out on the internet and see who is still counting this decline. Those wave counters have absolute no money behind their convictions as they have nothing better to do then make little numbers and letters!  Folks, I have a clear Idealized picture in my mind which the market needs to confirm.

We are going in a wild ride that few have any clue about in what’s coming. The staunches gold investor will not budge so all I have to say is then “go down with the Golden Titanic”.

I have a 10 ounce silver coin bet on this direction of gold and as soon as gold crosses $1047 I will win another 10 ounce silver coin. I need a few more coins to bet with as they are gret looking coins I love.

My CAD short positions have cranked up a brighter “Shamrock Green” with only one still in the red. (drawdown red) So that sure helps to confirm the direction.

I will mention it early but when this market reverses dramatically then at any top between $1700 and $1900 could get hit but when that happens remember that the year 1919  was the beginning a major silver crash and bear market that lasted 13 year before it bottom in 1932-33. I do not ignore big cycles as they are the key in understanding gold. What we are seeing in the gold market today comes along once in 30 years, so if I have a hot wave count I must take advantage of it.

In the next 3 years this wild gold price swings is my type of market where I feel most comfortable in.  Those who are not ready now will be ready as even a small $5000 USD account will be good to start with. My present day allotment is about $5000 USD.

This Cycle degree zigzag bear market is already the most real money tested wave pattern in history and with the help of a squad of testers then maybe more people will enjoy

seeing a little “green” as we crash into the fall.  We are falling down a 5 wave sequence, and I will do everything in my power to identify any 5 wave sequence that may come so we can maximize time, speed and efficiency, to extract green form every move we get.  In order to see green in our trading accounts we have to see red first.  No pain No gain!  I will talk about this”red” many more times as they are not losses until you take them.

I can tell you that this situation is looking just like early 2008 and I caught that falling knife with a position in GDX. It is one of the most memroable trades in my life and it made a good impression on me that will last the rest of my life. I want a few people to share the same experince and I will do everything in my power to see that you feel it too. You will never go back and do it another way.

In the 2008 market crashed I warned by big sister that what was going to happen in the fall of 2008 and explained it in detail as best as I could. After the crash did happen she confirmed I saw it coming all the way.

My big sister knowsthat I’m a traders invoved with gold so I told, her not to worry at all as I would get wiped out but may even prosper in this market crash. I reinforce this to her several times and it calmed her down. Now she is going to see the same thing again with the wild swings in gold. Only until the bottom arrives that she might tell me I was right.    If I think I see a crash coming with my Elliott Wave, then I will do everything in my power to mention it to my family and close freinds.

 

Hits: 7

DJIA Intraday Bullish Phase Reversal?

I’ve come to the conclusion that investors don’t care about the EWP or don’t use it that much because it is too cryptic.

It’s the traders that might use it most often as that is about all that people that will make money in this bear market that nobody expects. There is going to be a rude awaking folks, and if you try to figure out in which direction this market can go then I will tell you a fundamental truth that nobody will tell you.

Stock investors are sitting on a time bomb called a Death Cross and they do not know it, Yet!  Gold also made a trip down this morning and downside break out is near. The stock market could follow as this has all happened before.

My Intraday stock updates are going to be reduced as I will spend my time with the gold crash and the short trade.  Please do not waste your time to figure out what fundamentals still apply because you can’t.  If you are not a contrarian then you become the victim and my wave counts don’t want you to vecome the victum as this market will crash as we go into the summer and fall.  Chances are extemely high at this point, that it looks like gold and stocks are all going the same way.  With nearly the same wave count.

When I see something like this being setup it can fit with my wave counts or it has to be dismissed. It has no impact on any of my wave positions so it has a high chance of happening. We will find out when gold crashes below $800, as the DOW should not be too far behind to reverse as well.

My gold wave counts are now being tested 24 hours perday, as long as I’m in any positions long or short.  Gold is in a Cycle degree bear market and so are stocks so I call this a pretty good correlation.

If this DOW rally is already a bearish rally then complete retracement of this move will happen with no exceptions.

Another big rule I use is that, “Fundamentals will never tell you the right things at the extremes”  and in old futures traders lingo they call it  them “Funny-Mentals”. Markets will always do the opposite of funamentals and if you think that is not true then do your homework . Did the fundamentals in early 2009 tell you that the biggest stock bull market was comming?  Did you miss that bull market because you listened to the fundamantal bullshit or did you see it as one of the greatest buying opportunity of your life?

Sooner or later this market will start to roll over and then the rest will become history. If investors forget the past then they are doomed to repeat all the same mistakes of he past. This is no longer a market to invest in but it will be the traders paradise.  The ones that feel comfortable in trading up (long) or down (short) will be the winners.

 

Hits: 2

Gold Weekly Chart: On The Verge!

I have talked to gold bulls about a $500 gold crash but they will not listen or know about the Death Cross they are sitting. Folks, this is a prime example what relience on a single  price level will do. The gold bulls are basing their investment decisions thinking a little $1050 price level is going to hold them up!   If I know about the 50- 200-day Death Cross I would never knowly exposed my friends or family to such an investment.  I say pattern rules over price, because stuck at the end of the pattern is the real price!

I would be pretty stupid if after 20 years I don’t know what a bear market rally is and its aftermath Yes I could be wrong and I hate saying that but all my gold related wave counts are being tested already

Just look up at the top and then down, each counter rally was a mini bear rally and the only difference is the degree.  From the 4th wave down, this is a zigzag with a “B” wave triangle crown. Every waver should know what it means and should not call this a bull market.

I have very confident price and pattern for the long cycles in gold  out to 2101, A potential Submillenial degree wave three top in 2101. There is a 30 and 60 year cycle that is so regular it makes you speachless when you start  thinking about it.  All major tops that will end far into the future must be wave 3 as not 5th wave must ever be left uncapped. I will talk alontmore  this but I still need to do a bit of number crunching which I can narrow down to a 1 year plus or minus 1 year number.

$850 and $1375 are critical in gold as they are the basis of Fibonacci jumps. $1920 and $1050 mean nothing when forecasting gold into the future and kid can forecast the price of gold well into the future with just the knowledge of the 30 year cycle and one silly little number. (1.618)

Gold is now a dollar away from breaking first support and I have given the gold bulls a 3-1 advantage to confirm their bull market theory. they only have until the next $1200 breach and they have lost 50% of their pattern that has no wave count. Like you can do that man, every peak needs a home and it must fit relative the bigger sequence.

Turning a bear market rally into a bull market is not the smartest use of the EWP as it is highly in-efficient! It’s also a good sign how the wavers are feeding us a line of bull shit.

Technically the 5 wave decline is a diagonal decline not a 5 wave impulse decline, and found in all zigzags sooner or later. Commodities are in a zigzag world where regular wave counting will not work.

Folks I don’t need to create another wave count until we hit the bottom. I’m setting a trap for all those phony wanna be wave counters out there today that have no risk capital in what they believe in. Every single wave count you see anywhere on the net have major flaws in them that takes me just a few minutes to find and to identify.

I plan to keep most wave counts off the charts, so when you see another chart anywhere on the net that has it counted down in great detail they are the phony ones.

They have nothing better to do as all they are doing is playing with a paint by number sets. If you think I’m going fill all the little waves when the biggest reversal in history could be coming? Not on your life folks! If you think I’m a bit harsh don’t, because I’m sugar coating it when I say it!

My wave counts are constantly being tested now and some have even volunteered to test it as well. Testing it three times, all the way down and all the way up and then back down again with just 100 shares. I am short already a 1000 shares and more may happen tomorrow morning.  I will not add a single short after that as I got to hang on and ride a roller coaster down on the back of a golden bear!

I will try and write down as much as I can before we hit bottom as when the bottom is near we have to concentrate on it.  This market with extreme swings is my type of market as I love them and have been lucky enough to trade them with a $6000 US allotment I may double that if I can. I can carry pretty large positions and I will let readers know about the first 100 shares I buy at the bottom.  This is very important as it is critical to know the fast sequence of events that happen at the bottom.

As soon as we drop just a dime under $800 then “immediately”  close off all shorts, and start your controlled entry sequence. you can do both at the same time if your cutting it close.

I know most will be freaking out if they bought into a falling gold price but I have done this a few times before. It is my preferred way of getting into fast moving markets. I see red and lots of it, but once it has turned the corner everything lights up green and you have found Shamrock Green!  On the way down I plan on finding Shamrock Green under the $800 gold price. I will still try and give  a potential sequence of events that can happen and then to analyze all the red you “WILL” be seeing. this red is not your blood folks it’s your Draw Down red you are seeing. You only occur losses when you take them, You also can capture no Shamrock Green until you click sell. Traders must understand this, that we don’t make a dime until the deal is done and closed. Every opening must have a closing and when you do you will be all in cash. Once the top is all sold out then our short controlled entry sequence kicks in and we get to ride the Golden bear down for another personal best score. Riding horses is no fun if you can ride a bear or a bull!  Once we hang around the bottom for awhile something amazing will happen which I will cover in another separate post. It’s all about 2 colors of Red and Green!  When doing this remember the contrarians are racing you to the bottom as they will be buying just like you. $800 is the real base folks and I have said that for may years like others.

Hits: 6

GDX Special

This chart has no wave counts on it just trend lines. Followers know exactly what wave count I’m on. In reality I don’t need to do anymore wave counting until GDX has shown me that a decent recognizable correcttion has taken place.  For the life of me I don’t see it, as any correction always has at least two bottoms not just one bottom.

GDX only has one bottom, so the so called GDX bull market has to see the second low to finish a correction. Eyeballing any chart first is very important.  Technically speaking GDX still needs to have its second bottom make a public appearance which it refuses to do. Even if GDX turned to a new high It would still be a bear market rally so that still makes GDX below $12 a real target.  There is a major conflict between gold bulls and the golden bear because the bearish group needs GDX under $12, the GDX bulls need to go above that $34 price price level. Exact price levels are required when we get to a critical turnings.

What other two technical hints do you see, that will help us and all readers to determine if we are in a true bull market, or if the past has just been a good old fashioned bear market rally. A big Head & Shoulder pattern and a little innocent gap is also there. There is always a 90% chance that any gap will get filled, and in the case of GDX it provided extreme resistance.

I always use two parallel lines to define a trend and its parameters.  I do this first thing  before I put a single wave position on my charts. I also make a  a full 8×10 printout and I can stare at the GDX pattern for weeks if I want.  Notice that our present day GDX has some resistance issues at the $25 price level where it tried 4 times to breakout and never made it. Now think of the 2017 GDX sideways market as a triangle in a “B”wave matching golds triangle “B”. In this case pattern identification is thrown out the window just to promote that GDX is in a bull market.

Hits: 6

Canadian Dollar Weekly Chart Bear Market Rally?

Again we can see how much hell and havoc a Death Cross can bring as it forecast the implosion of the CAD back in 2013.  The CAD has been in a declines and shows not signs of imminent reversal. Besides where’s it going to go to. Gold bulls are wrong if our Canadian dollar keeps heading south. The commercial traders are net long the CAD already but it sure looks like numbers don’t matter when another Death Cross is coming up.  We had our Death Cross, then just recently another Golden Cross which is extremely bullish right?  Well no, as another Death Cross is now due and it would only take another small dip in the CAD and the 200-day MA will get sliced in two.

The CAD 5th wave decline could end up being so bunched up that it will become difficult to track. Eventually the 4th wave in Minor degree will cause ultimate confusion with many over lapping wave structures. It’s the final ending plunge that could get very long. Sure commercials reports are extremely important but those folks have far less risk than what the speculators have, and the numbers can stay skewed for a very long time.

The speculators are the ones that are increasing their short positions so they are geared up for any CAD decline. We can always count on the speculators to get into a trap as they are very good at it.   I have what I call a “Wave Pool” which can contain 50 asset classes and their wave counts all bubbling and boiling in relationship to each other.

When some wild forecast comes out and this goes against the grain of anyone of my wave counts in the “pool” that chart will bounce or do nothing. When any expert or real world event does not stir up the pool then this news is irrelevant and has no real impact on any other wave counts I have. The short explanation is if some wild forecast does not force me to run and change wave positions then this forecast will be wrong and another worthless opinion.

The wave action in this pool are my bullshit detectors and I got 50 of them working for me at all times. About 25 futures wave positions and 25 ETF positions. It was amazing to see this work as I have listened to wild forecasts that just shocks the gold bulls. Yet not a single wave in my pool needed to get changed one bit. All my wave counts in this “Wave Pool” did not miss a beat which confirms the majority of what this wild forecaster had said would happen. I will elaborate on this pool action more and until I saw it happen for the first time I wasn’t paying attention. You can bet I’m paying attention to it now and have been for sometime. We all need a bull shit detector as this world is throwing out crap that needs a Sherlock Holmes detective to figure out in what the facts are.

Any good wave count should never harm a good trading account as I use the EWP as a “value added” analytical tool. A good wave count should above all save you money if we can avoid a meltdown. If any wave count does any damage to your trading account then we better throw that wave count out the window as fast as we can. Elliott wave is all about enhancing value not destroying it. If any wave count causes you to miss a major move, then it’s not enhancing your world or mine is it?

Hits: 8

Euro Monthly Chart Death Cross Location!

At this time my Cycle degree wave 3 peak may be questionable  if that location can remain as I may have to switch the Euro to a 4th wave top in Cycle degree. I need time to think on that but I sell have lots of time to think on it some more. The entire idea of a 5 wave decline in Primary degree doesn’t need to get changed just yet, for any reason.

In other words don’t fret if I talk about a big degree change in the Euro as it would have little impact on any present wave count that needs to get done. How this futures cash chart reacts and looks like in the Forex world, it may not react the same. This Euro chart is still bearish because of the 4th wave rally is just another bear market rally and “B” wave bottom might get completely retraced by the end of this year.

It now doesn’t take Elliott Wave rocket science anymore to figure out that the Euro is in deep trouble. What I say about the Euro is inversely related back to the US dollar. If the Euro is in a bear market then the USD is still in a bull market. This fact can not be undone as the Euro is not going to get kicked out of the US dollar basket any time soon.

The Death Cross on this Euro monthly chart, has past but I don’t think I have to remind readers anymore how bearish these Death Cross indicators are, as the 50-day MA line is going to lead the Euro down.  Hey, our CAD is going to implode right along with you guys so don’t think we are in some kind of bastion of safety. Canada is in serious trouble when all the real estate markets implode. This whole structure of waves looks like it is up too high, and you are right! These are diagonal waves to were the final count down can be a very long extension that will just boggle the mind.

All those gold investors will get burnt in the process because they are waiting for the Euro and our CAD to soar. You can wait a long time for that as every bear market rally retraces itself and heads to a new low. How many major bullish phases did the Euro have and each one completely retraced itself.  Our present Euro is  in another bear market rally so much more downside pain will come.

The run of Euro holders into the dollar continues as the US dollar becomes safe-haven as the world currencies implode.  A rising dollar is deflationary  and this in turn kills gold as an investment asset. There is a time to hold but there is also a time to become a trader as violent swings occur where investors get shredded becuase they stayed invested to long.  This world is not safe to Buy& Hold anymore as it is a Buy-Low sell high world that can generate better returns if you know how to bet the markets in either direction.  Having the ability and courage to go short at specific times always allows you to seek opportunities and major reversals. I will focus on the gold sectors as that is what I understand as I have experienced catching the falling GDX in 2008. Wild and moving markets is where I feel comfortable with as the trading opportunities are going to be fantastic if we are on the ball and are prepared at all times.

Commercials are still net short the Euro but not at any real extreme just yet.

 

 

Hits: 7

Dow Index Daily Chart: Hunt For The Death Cross Continues!

If you want to see trillions go up in smoke then just what what happens after the DOW slice through the 200-day MA.  This 50-day, 200-day MA fits into my wave counting style extremely well as the Death Cross (DC) is a powerfull signal that shit is going to hit the fan. All those camplacant stock bulls  have an ugly trip ahead of them because the bears are coming to shred every bull they can catch.  A big bear in a pit of bulls, who do think will win? All the bear has to do is growl like crazy and you will see the stock bulls flee like a bunch of scared rabbits.  All it takes is one bull group to bolt for the exits and you have an instant mini crash.

If there is one warning I can give in all the time I’ve been wave counting,  you don’t want to be bullish in front of a potential Death Cross to come.  We need a very small down plunge and the Death Cross is history.  All that funny money they base their world on will come crashing down. Are you having fun yet, because for the short seller he will have a field day as he rides down the next leg of a bear market.

There is no support for anything in a Cycle degree crash, so let it fall. A world built on phony money and extreme debt does not get cleaned up with a simple correction it could take three years before the final bottom.  Besides, maybe in the fall President Trump will order the trade wars over and and scream. “No More Taxes”  The stock markets would turn and soar for huge gains.

In this crazy world anything is possible, but nothing will stop a decline once it starts rolling down hill.  Gold has already had it’s daily chart Death Cross so everything is going to take a big hit in asset prices.  I have only been using the 50-day 200-day MA a few months but it all depends how you use it that is more important.  Needless to say it fits very well with Cycle degree wave counting, and I incorporated it into the Cycle degree wave counting method.  The next many weeks is going to be critical as we should witness the DOW slow down and refuse to go higher.

 

 

Hits: 14

Silver Weekly Chart 2011-2018 Update.

The silver bulls think that silver is in a bull market, yet all my best wave counts and indicators like the Death Cross tell me an opposite story. The sideways decline in silver is doing the opposite of what gold has done and at this point, silver only has to fall about $2.90 and it will break to new record lows. Below $13  silver will have confirmed that this so called bull market is nothing but a fake, or a bear market rally. All bear market rallies retrace themselves and have been doing that since the 2011 top. We are in a 5 wave decline and we are not finished by a long shot. A crash of more than $3.00 will end all this silly debate between those who can tell what a bear market rally is and those that can’t. The majority will never want to take the time to learn. Every single counter rally in this silver bear market is just a mini bear market rally and they all have been completely retraced. Each mini bear rally attracted the gold bulls back but their bullish views were quickly dashed as being wrong!

Folks the majority always get fooled and in the case of the 2016 top they are getting fooled by an Intermediate degree rally!  If they are so easily fooled then a huge silver “B” wave bull market in Primary degree will fool many more.  Are you ready for silver to crash to $8.00 because if your not your going to miss the biggest counter rally in silver that you have seen since the 2011 peak. I’ve been actively planning my future bull ride already with my friend but I will use GDX for that.

What we see above is called “Waiting” for the trade to come to me, as everyone else chases bull markets which I never do. When you chase a bull market your too late already and those that are late will already have missed huge gains. We had a huge Death Cross and then a Golden Cross and then several little crossings which should end with a small Death crossing when silver plunges. In the weekly chart this looks much worse, and I for one see silver as a short bet not a long bet. I would “NEVER” knowingly park my bullish positions on-top of a Death Cross. When you do your are going to suffer huge losses very quickly when the bottom gives out.

The world is going to deflate when the big one hits so no gold, Silver or oil can handle that and they will suffer the same fate as the markets. This has all happened before in the 20o8 crash, where everything crashed together in a deflationary spiral. 2018 is also a very special year for earth as it hits it’s 30 year cycle, of slowing rotation.

This rotation slowdown they say will cause massive earth quakes as the earth twists and turns. The metals all run on this cycle as major peaks are 30 years apart. Cycle degree wave 5 will not finish until 2041 and I still need to work on what the price of silver will be by that time. Short answer is $89 for silver!  In gold Supercycle degree wave three will be about $2225.

I also use the 100 year cycle as a forecasting tool. I time travel back to 1919 and look forward. 1919 was the peak of a major silver bullish phase so being long at that time would shred all our gold and silver investments.  Some of the greatest shorting opportunities are also going to come, so if you can only bet one way then you are running at 50% efficiency or less.

I look for high-efficiency trades for myself and my friends and they are found in 5 wave runs. Looking for trades that will contain any Minor degree 5 wave run should never be missed as they can be great winners if you can ride the bull!  The object is to find your personal best in a single trade and then try and beat it. If you try to beat the market it will surely come back and beat you up! 🙂

I’m short gold stock ETFs and have no intention of freaking out and selling in a panic. As long as I have funds in active real money positions, I’m constantly testing my wave positions with real money.

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September Crude Oil Daily Chart: Record High Again.

I show that oil peaked at just below the $73 price level in the September contract, the August contract has just crashed so there are always differences in prices.  The December contract paints an entirely different picture as the December contract is at least $5 per barrel, this is well on the road to an extreme spread and it tells me that oil’s bull run will not last.

The gold bugs need higher oil prices to support their bullish claims, because you sure will not see the gold price soar as oil implodes. Sorry folks but that ain’t going to happen. Gold and oil are linked by an unbreakable elastic band, which can streach and contract by extreme ratios. The ratio is still around 17:1 which is also at an extreme, so this will change dramatically as we hit the Gold/Oil ratio brick wall! Hurricane season can have psychological reasons why oil is high, but summer driving will also end so the future of the WTI oil price does not look bullish from my perspective. COT reports also show commercials net long in oil, so the bearish indicators are still there and getting worse.

To think that the stock market is going to deflate but oil and gold inflate, then you should check all your premisses as one of them is sure to be wrong. When the oil bulls all start to sound alike, then I know it’s time to short the oil price. I use USO for that as I’m short 100 shares on USO. Sure, any trade will go against you but feathering into any  postion is the key. I can handle alot of Draw Down red, which freaks my friend “JP” when I show him my red positions. My entire short sell group is turning into my best performers so I have no intention of getting out. I trade small positions with ETFs but try and stay in for a 5 wave run. When you ride those bear runs down, then you pat your bear and tell him that he has done a good job. Yes there are buckaroo cowboys that can only ride the bulls, but up here in Canada we also ride the bears! It’s not a fricken horse race folks. It’s a bear and bull ride and to see who can last the longest before being thrown off!

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Gold Intraday: Last Chance To Be A Bull Market!

Well folks, the time is near as we approach the most important price level for gold, and that is below $1236. Just to be on the safe side I use $1234 as the official price failure confirming ig gold is in a bear market or not. Yes we are talking around a $2 window, to confirm this so called gold bull market!  From my Cycle degree perspective, the $1234 crossing confirms that all we had so far was just a bear market rally, and it is only a matter of time when the next price support also fails.

The next price support for this so called “bull” market is $1205.  Just so there is no doubt at all,  I will use below $1204 as the next price level when support fails. We have 4 to go for the entire trip, and the $1204 price level breach would complete two extremely important bull market support levels. Two out of four support failures still needs to get “taken out”, but when gold wants to start rolling down hill, you don’t want to get in it’s way, because from here on the stop loss “SELL” orders are piling up.

If you think the “gold dip buyers” are actually down there, don’t count on it, the gold bulls will turn on you and instantly turn into a bear as they scream “sell” at the hedge funds trading department. The hedge funds already dumped 700 tonne on the market, so do you think they are going to stay long after critical bull market support fails?

Those gold bulls will run south faster that we can think, pushing any retail gold bull out of the way as the gold price keeps crashing.  After the third support price level is taken out, then we are over the 50-50 support breach and the bearish sentiment (BS)  really starts rolling downhill. Then we only have one bull market support left to breach, at the $1047 price level.

After the $1047 price level fails then all argument about gold in a bull market will have failed as well. The implosion of the gold price will be on all the gold blogs and on your local TV news channel.  The gold bears are going to shred the gold bulls and eat them for breakfast, and I for one will be glad that I’m riding the gold bear down with short positions.

The problem with the $1234 crossing is that it leaves a big chunk of waves uncountable, and that you cannot have! It has no home folks, and therefore will destroy every bullish wave count they can dream up!  Those gold bull wave counting buckaroos, will get thrown off and they will use some lame fundamental excuse why their wave count is failing. Being able to bet on the markets going down ( short selling) with real money,  is a far more efficient use of any wave counts. If you don’t know how to “short sell”, then traders are only running at 50% efficiency at best!

About once a month I have a meeting with my friend “JP” who will retire in 2029 (SC Peak) and he knows my work very well. We can tie up a booth for hours and do detail analysis together. He understands the benefits of the ability to sell short any ETF when the time is right. I have 6 short positions out on gold and gold stock ETFs, so there is plenty of evidence that I’m testing my wave counts on a continuous basis. (Without the use of any stops!) I never use stops just like any other contrarian that I know. Shit if I were to use stops I would never be in the game as I would get kicked out all the time.

Much of my planning will be done with GDX , so I will talk more about planning for the biggest “knife catching tournament in gold’s history”!.  🙄

My friend JP is not a dummy he is very detail minded and he will spot major loopholes pretty quick. “JP” is also witnessing a bet I made on the direction of the gold price, no time limit just a very strict price limit. If Gold crashes below $1047 before it crosses $1400, he pays me a 10 ounce silver coin, worth about $242 CAD! If the gold price goes above $1400 then I pay him my silver 10 ounce coin. We have this bet documented which I will let my  friend JP witness.

I can get carried away in a gold post, but shit is going to hit the fan and lots of stuff will happen that nobody will be expecting, especially all those “complacent” gold bull investors.

 

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Gold 1992-2018 Review

Many do not believe that the gold price can crash (deflate) $500 in a year or by this fall, but history tells me that gold can crash $500 and it would just be a walk in the park.

Look back to 1992, when everyone on the planet was bullish on gold. Gold also went sideways for just about the same amount of time. The angle was much later and was much easier to read as a bear market rally. Total retracement confirmed it as a bear market rally.  I can’t confirm bear market rallies only the market can do that.

Any bear market rally must completely retrace it’s entire bullish phase from the point of orgin, by any small amount clearly visible. Charts differe in style so as long as its lower then, the bull market was confirmed as a gold bull trap. I deliberately kept off the little wave positions as there is no need to count it a thousand times. Technically I don’t have to fill out a single wave count until a major bottom has happened.  For the Elliott Wave fan that just loves a challenge look at the bottom of 1999 and you will see a “B” wave in Primary degree. The entire gold bull market was a “C” wave bull market which ended in 2011 at the $1920 price level.

There may be a few that have Cycle degree wave 3 as a top, but you will find nobody with a Primary “C” underneath it.  That harmless little “C” wave has powerful implications for Cycle degree wave 5, that will catch gold investors by surprise. It is the reason for any wild moves this market is going to get. We are in a Cycle degree bear market and we are far from over as this fall we may be just 1/3 of the way through it, which could end by 2021 or so.

The debate continues if we are in a bull market or not, but we don’t need an expert to tell us, when all we need to do is test the market by selling GLD short. Sit back and wait which positions shows you more “green”.  What will happen when you do that is the position will go against you, and you freak out, take a loss, and then GLD plunges leaving you with nothing, and you just missed a further drop in the price of gold.

I have tested many times before, and this time I’m testing the markets down with my short positions. Which will perform better in a potential crash, a bearish trading account or a bullish trading account?  I already tested it to the bullish side and it was a nightmare, so I bailed and took the loss. My Cycle degree wave counts in gold related assets are always being tested with real money, and the only way to stop testing is if I jump to all cash. (Panic Sell)  I will be talking mostly about GDX as my planning stages are in full swing to buy into GDX below $10.89. I will target 100 shares, maybe more. My share counts are geared to about a $13000 trading account, but $10,00o is the minimum you need to start with. Thirteen is also a Fibonacci number!  When you get your account to $21,000 you have made a Fibonacci 61% jump! $34,000 another 61% jump. I think you get the picture. Never retreat! 🙄

This gold market is going to get very violent, with wild swings the likes we have not seen before, and those who are not fully prepared will end up with little.

 

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TGOD Bear Market Update

I use X as an unknown because we really don’t have any real  clue what the peak was. Best guess is a wave three peak, but that can be confirmed until  I see a good correction has taken place. TGOD is a medical marijuana related company. I have a short position on TGOD ans as long as it’s in the green I don’t plan on closing off my short. $6 may look like a good base but my trend lines may tell me a different story. I might buy into this if I see it has any bottom is forming. TGOD would have to go nuts to break out sideways, but if the down trend continues, then prices should stay inside the two parallel lines.

I would never buy into this stock at this chart pattern, so shorting this stock is like testing to see if this stock is in a bear market or a bull market correction.

Remember this type of a bullish move as we could run into that with gold, in 2019. From personal experience and you are a trader then you never want to miss a 5 wave run.

Missing a 5 wave bull run (ride) in Minor degree is something you don’t want to miss. I will talk more about this in the gold section and GDX.

 

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USO Impending Crash Update

The majority think that gold is still going above $1400 but what happens after that. If a market has just been a bear market rally the gold can crash from $1400 to $800 with little effort. USO and Crude oil will not take this lying down as they will also crash. A bear market rally “must” send USO back down below 2016 lows so that is a very strong bearish indicator to get out of any USO bullish positions.

The only thing USO is good for is for shorting as I will not go long on this ETF for any reason.  My wave counts are working wave positions, and they are not published for entertainment purposes like all other wave counts are!

In general if all bullish retoric all starts to sound alike, then chances are extremely high, that they are wrong, and therfore a short position is the only logical position to have.

 

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GSCI Daily Chart! The Final Countdown!

                            Europe – The Final Countdown (Official Video)

Music always goes good with looking at wave positions. In this case when I’m counting down the slope, The Final Countdown always seems to come up. Very few are bearish on commodities like I am. I’m a bear inside a bull herd and I love it. That’s what Elliott Wave is all about! I have said it all along that this gold/oil bull market is a bear market rally and in order for this to get confirmed by the markets, the GSCI must completely retrace it’s entire bullish phase, back down and below the price point of origin.

The short version is that the commodities meltdown is in progress and we are heading down to a Death Crossing (DC). “ALL” those that have bullish positions will get forced out if they like it or not, or they will suffer the meltdown trying to stand on an impending DC!  Once the smaller majority see the same thing happening then mini panics kick in and a bearish move starts to snowball.  We have a good support price range at the “B” wave, and the decline can give us a hard time at that point.

I will be switching more to the gold markets during this meltdown, as my wave positions are working wave positions in the gold sectors. For people that think that long range planning is nonsense, then they can keep using the EWP for short term mindless trade setups. The EWP is much, much more than just the quest for simple stupid trade setups.  All this may take until the end of the year to clear up some more, as we have to get past the DC first. I have small short positions out on gold and gold stocks so I have real money on my wave counts.

When this all hits bottom and you want to bet on the reversal, then you must be fully prepared now ! If by the time gold hits $800 or GDX sees $8-$12 and traders are not ready, you will miss any bullish reversal that will come.

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Gold Intraday Update: Bull Market Or Bear Market Rally?

I warned my friends of a possible gold price meltdown and only a few that know my charts well agree with me. I have small short positions on Gold/Oil related ETFs and have no plans to get out like a scared rabbit!  We are still a few dollars away from retracing #4. That proves that at least one section was just a bear market rally, which does not fit any proper wave count I have ever used. One out of four is soon to be a bear market rally with three to go, You can’t have just one bump out in the open like that.  We are also sitting at the 50-day MA with the 200-day MA. still well below us.  Emotional bullish complacent gold bugs, are sitting on one of the most bearish indicators in our tool box, yet they are oblivious to it, or wish to ignore them.

Gold travels in 30 year cycles and when we count from the 1980 peak and add 30 years we get close to 2011 plus or minus one year. When we add 30 years to 2011 we get 2041 for the next major peak. That would be Supercycle degree wave 3 peak, but it would end with Cycle degree wave 5 having to complete first. After this Cycle degree 4th wave finishes, it could turn into another zizag bull market. I also have a price forecast for gold for that 2041 peak, but I’m not going to post it all the time. Just because I’m super bearish on gold right now, doesn’t mean I eliminate all gold bull markets.

I find gold bugs to in love with there investments as I will have no hesitation in shorting gold if I figure gold is going to crash in a 5 wave sequence.  We still have time but I will trade GDX when the time is right. Right now its a short bet. There is a very easy way to test gold if it’s in a bear market rally or not, and that is to, “SHORT ” GDX with 100 shares or 50 like I have. Then sit back and see what happens by the end of 2018.

Any investor that is willing to trade waves when they arrive should at least have funding of $10,000 in Cad or USD trading accounts and access to US and Canadian markets when they start.

 

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S&P Midcap E-Mini Record Highs

We have multiple tops in a few of the index charts, which will take time for me to sort out. I’m trying an expanded pattern which would crash right to my Primary degree “B” wave that I need. I still feel that we will get flats for most of the stock markets correction, but that can always lead in with an Intermediate degree expanded zigzag. A long tail will look like 1929 once it has completed. Better put on some Gerry Rafferty music and let that saxophone wail!  It could be a long hot summer bear market that few expect.  I will also have to check for a missed expanded top which could contain a triangle in the “B”. You can see how crazy a wave count can be when we have an expanded pattern, inside a diagonal bull market.  Most of the time we will get a long tail from the “C5” wave looking like a “crash”.

You can see that the 50-day MA and the 200-day MA are very close and it will take nothing for the 200-day to get cut, and bingo we are in Death Cross territory. I would never want to get caught sitting with a bullish position on top of a Death Cross including all the commodities I cover. It’s like you and friends are all on the deck knocking back some cool Red Stripe and some little market gremlin is cutting the 6×6 posts that supports the entire structure. This is the third big stock market crash I have counted out, and it will be worse than the others as we are starting a Cycle degree bear market.  We will get a big bear market rally which will get completely retraced, so don’t get caught in some fake bull market.

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