US Dollar Intraday Crash Review

The US dollar has crashed since the June 20th peak and has now started another correction. I’m counting the sideways market as a potential triangle, but it could be leading to a diagonal wave 3 of one higher degree.  I would love to see more downside to the US dollar as that will help any gold related assets as well. On a stronger than anticipated counter rally, we might see it bunch up before it moves higher, but that is not what is happening at this time.

I can start this wave count as a small impulse, which usually means a bigger sequence is coming. When the media starts to act like parrots, regurgitating bearish news on how the US dollar is imploding, and ridicules bearish price forecasts are made, then I would expect to see a real strong rally to unfold. Trapping all the US dollar bears in the process. One thing we can count on, is that in any market, participants are oblivious when they are in a bull or bear trap.

Don’t worry the US dollar is not going to implode and fall to zero, as it will soar again once a major stock bull market starts. The 92 price level would be the next major area of concern, but we have a ways to go before that starts to hit the radar screens. The 93 price level also contains a triple bottom, and triple bottoms are always areas to watch in any asset class. 

In the long run, the bearish phase is still on, as it will take a major change in one of my indicators that I track, before it makes a major reversal.  When the commercials become net long, and speculators become net short, then it will be time to initiate another complete review.  I try to review before the markets force it on me. Constantly reviewing is the only way to find better fitting wave counts, which are buried in the past. Creating different wave counts cosmetically will never work, as we have to look deep into the past and make structural changes.