US Dollar Daily Chart Bear Market Update

As the US dollar crashes the Euro rallies. It seems the stock market is also ignoring the crashing US dollar, but for how much longer, I’m not sure.  The US dollar has definitely added some extra push in the price of gold, but that can also kill the price of gold when the US dollar decline reverses.

At the very top I have dropped down one degree and temporarily trashed my “D” wave top in Primary degree. It’s not that it’s thrown out completely, it just goes back into inventory for now.  I use 5 of the simple patterns over and over which we can be adapted for any degree that I may be working on. Complex wave structures are just combinations of simple patterns, which can confound us to no end, especially if we don’t know where we are counting from.

I have always mentioned that the US dollar bull market could just be a big bear market rally, which means 100% retracement must eventually happen. In order for any wave 4 top in Intermediate degree to be confirmed we must have 5 waves down in Minor degree.  The difference between a potential “E” wave decline and  5 waves in Minor degree is the 4th wave.  Any “ABC” decline  can look just like a “1,2,3” decline for most of the time, until wave “C” or wave “3” has ended.

We still have time left before we get close to a wave 1 in Minor degree, because a 5th wave can extend dramatically. The commercials are still net short but that would have to change to a net long position once we get closer to any wave 1 in Minor degree.

95 was the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, so any US dollar Minor degree wave 2 rally can charge back up into this price range. We still have 2 sets of 4th waves that need to play out, so until that happens, there is no sense in turning bullish on the US dollar too early.