Tag Archives: Silver Elliott Wave

Silver Intraday Crash Update.

I believe that this great looking silver crash is a correction and not the start of some super bearish move. I think the best part is yet to come. I moved my Minor degree top over with an extended diagonal zigzag, which places the Minute degree correction not quite in the middle of the decline, followed by a long and skinny “C” wave. If all the technical wave counting is correct or very close, then this would be one of the best wave trading setups this year.

At a minimum, any “ABC” type crash will retrace 100% of its decline, and then add on more legs after it breaks out.  I stress more attention should be paid to 3 wave patterns than any set of 5 waves, as 3 waves dominate the markets at this time.  

Silver is not starting as a pure impulse, but that is to be expected as we have to link all zigzags together in a wave 3 as well. Before I used to panic thinking that all these were false rallies, but I know this is not true.

As you can guess I would have to be very bullish with what I see right now, but we need time to move forward to help confirm it. 

Technically, we should also see waves 3-4-5 show up, after which it can give us another major  high and time to force a decision on us. Many things have to fall into place as well, so it’s not all about any wave count.  Emotions and crowd sentiment is the underlying fundamentals of the EWP, and when we ignore these sentiment indicators we do so at our own peril.  The Futures or Forex markets will show us no mercy, as that is where “fear” dominates at the expense of hope and greed. I know that most fears develop because of over trading, and lack of attention how much of our trading accounts we have used up. There is a big difference in fear, if you only risk $1 out of $100 cash, or betting $50-$60 out of each $100 net cash in your trading account.  Only the guy standing in front of a slot machine will bet everything.  

Silver Intraday Crash Review

 

 

One thing we have to keep in mind is that after a crash depending on what degree we are working, will always end up going higher from where the crash originated from.  This forms the higher highs which many would classify as a bull market.  If silver will stop on a dime is never an exact sure thing. Seeing this as a potential corrective crash, then silver should eventually soar with another leg up. The next target would be a wave 3 in Minor degree, containing 5 waves in Minute degree.

This is also when the markets can extend to such an extent, that it is hard to imagine what some unseen smaller degree levels can do. In this specific wave count I could have up to 5 degree levels that might come out of hiding below Minute degree.  Just because something has soared tall does not mean it is in a higher degree.  Breaking the sequential chain is the worst thing we can do with the EWP, as it is just like a DNA string that can’t be resequenced.  I call it a DNA string, but in reality it is more like a Fibonacci string, that has to stay in sequence.

Move just one wave position and we have broken the string, so the entire sequence has to be recounted and checked again.

I’m still bullish in the long term and expect this decline to reverse sooner than later.

Silver Daily Chart Review

 

 

Since the silver bull market began in late 2015, it rallied in what I saw was an instant bear market rally, but the bearish readings were just too strong to have it end anytime soon.   Silver is the king of diagonal wave structures and they should be labeled as such. Most of the time room does not allow us to do that.   I believe that silver and others have a real high probability of being in a “D” wave Primary degree bull market.  This “D” wave needs one big zigzag to confirm it, but we have to keep the old “B” wave around just in case we have to bring it back.  We don’t have to do that until this run has completely finished.

Obviously late 2016 was another strong bottom, but how strong would be best explained with the degree levels. If this late 2016 bottom is a “B” wave in  Intermediate degree, then we have to use our knowledge of the idealized charts, to figure out exactly what patterns and at what degree level we need to finish off a “C” wave bull market.

What we need  is the technical requirement for an inverted zigzag. I have drawn out so many of them, in idealized fashion and as simple templates, yet not to many wave analysts can fill in the templates, when I challenge them on it.  A zigzag needs a 5-3-5 run and the 5 waves should always alternate, even if the first set of 5 is a bit different than the second set of 5 waves, then this is fine. In this second set they are still diagonal waves, but they are much smoother and overlap much more, making it much harder to see the connecting zigzags. 

The “C” wave we need must break out to new record highs, and they can have a nasty habit of extending to the likes we seldom ever see. This still may take all year to do, but finding the first Minor degree wave one is always tricky to get, as diagonal waves are born to fool us. 

Even now the correction in silver has still some up and down moves to go, before it is ready to start on the next leg up. 

 

Silver Intraday Potential Bear Trap Review

 

siy00-oct-20-2016

 

The bearish phase that we see in silver looks like another correction that may have a bit left to go, with a little counter rally 4th and 5th wave to play out.  Overall, I’m very bullish, as I believe that this commodity bull run has still lots more upside that it will show us.

Any more downside can be a fast, flash crash like move, and just as  your sell stops get hit, silver will turn and soar north again.  Yes, silver is lagging behind gold, but in the end days of any move, the asset class can make a vertical spike, that may impress us to no end. 

We also have a H&S base which can give us support if the decline has already finished. Any “C” wave bull market can start off very choppy making it very difficult because a bearish rally and the start of a diagonal wave structure, can look very much the same.  This is where we have to let time do its thing, to see if this short term rally, is a fake move

If the bigger picture is that investors are going to run to gold and silver as a safe place to go to get away from the carnage of the stock market, then eventually we have to come to terms that fearful investors can run back to the stock market at any time as well.  The US dollar also has to give the gold and silver bull market support, and I’m sure it will as the US dollar is running up against resistance all the time. 

 

 

Silver Intraday Price Pattern Review

 

siy00-sept-14-2016

 

I show that I’m working a 5 wave sequence, which I can only count out as a diagonal. With a potential wave 3 top in Minuette degree, followed by a bearish trend that still needs to finish. It may take until the end of the month, but after that we should see one more leg to the upside.  Since the July peak silver has been in a bearish funk for well over 2 months. 

We should still have some downside to go as the September peak was a 3 wave pattern.  That 3 wave rally should get completely retraced as all bear rallies eventually do.  Our present rally could be the last “B” wave that I need, followed by  a potential trailing 5 waves. Of course that 5 waves down, could end up being very choppy as every zigzag alternates.

If this progresses, be prepared to see a decline that could even push below my trend line. I would have to call the last 2+ months as a flat which would indicate a strong 5th wave.   I have to remain bearish in the short term, until silver crosses the minimum $18.40 price level.  

Silver Intraday Decline Review

 

siy00-sept-12-2016

 

Silver imploded recently, but it may have been a trap, when we consider a diagonal 5th wave can happen.  We also have a Head and Shoulder pattern that was very bearish in the short term, but we know that these H&S patterns can be very bullish in the long term. For this wave count to hold, silver would have to break out past the top two shoulders, by a wide margin.   We could be heading up a small “B” wave so the triangle is not completely dead at this time. 

For the bullish outlook I have no real top price forecast as and last push in commodities can dramatically extend. There is no real top price I can give, as I have lots of head room to spare, in a potential Minor degree  “D” wave bull market.  

Silver Intraday Bearish Decline Review

 

siy00-sept-9-2016

 

Silver has declined a bit more than what I would like, which is always a trigger to look for an alternate wave pattern. Since the early July peak silver has not crossed to new highs, but the pattern suggests that the bigger bullish phase is still alive. My two parallel lines always help to isolate the section I am working, with a potential target at the bottom of the trend line. 

We could be getting close to another “A” wave bottom in Micro degree, so a choppy rally should start to form as well. When silver started the short ride from the late August bottom, it produced a 3 wave zigzag rally, which technically should get completely retraced. By the time this ends, we will have 5 zigzag type waves completed, and all of them would also be completely retraced, with the impending 5th wave.

Any triangle gives us a warning that after the 5th wave is completed, a degree change must happen. At least 1 degree level higher and many times it is more than just one degree. This could end up at a “D” wave top well above the last $21 price level.     

Silver, Another Look At The Big Picture: 1993-2016 Review

 

SIY00-Sept-2-2016

 

Silvers real bottom was way back in 1993 at a 4 wave bottom in Primary degree. From 1993 forward I’m working this as a potential diagonal 5th wave, which topped in 2011, just under $50. All the hype of a big bull market, just barely match the 1980 peak, which did not confirm a huge bull market going to $200. The experts never even got close as from the 2011 peak silver had been in a bear market. Any counter rallies we had since that 2011 peak ended up being completely retraced, which is what bear market rallies are supposed to do in the first place.

The problem is getting a realistic wave count to it has been very challenging, but who says that wave counting is an easy task. The markets sole job is to keep all wave counters confused, especially if we have another bear rally disguised as a bull market.  Anybody can put up numbers and letters as that is not rocket science. It is far more difficult to call a bear rally when so many contrarians are still bullish.

I have complained many times how poorly the bull market has performed to an impulse. The 2016 silver bullish phase fits much better as a diagonal five, which would be part of a “C” wave bull market. We also have a H&S at the $21 price level, which can be very bearish at times.  Silver would have to get up and boogie, for this to be in a much bigger bullish picture, and so far it has refused to do this.

The gold/sil ratio hit just under 30:1. Very expensive SIL ratio numbers at its peak, was about 20:1. This ratio number should eventually create a much bigger spread, if this bearish rally turns out to be real.  

Silver 1980-2016 Elliott Wave Count Review

 

SIY00-July-7-2016

 

When a new bullish phase has started, it is always best to go back in chart history to look for the clearest wave pattern that we can see, up to the December 2015 bottom.

You have to see the wave pattern before you count it out as wave counting is a secondary act, and only helps to confirm what we are seeing.  Every wave count I have ever posted has been created with a new fresh chart. I do this to force a wave count review and to never bring the past mistakes with me into the future.  

The highest degree that I am working is Primary degree, which is a big clue that any Cycle degree wave 3 may still be ahead of us. From 1980 silver imploded and then bottomed in March of 1993. This would make the silver crash a 13 year long affair, which makes our present bearish decline a rather short one. It’s shorter because it was a lower degree. 

Since that 1993 bottom, silver has enjoyed a bull market that most of the time I counted as a big bear market rally.

In reality it sure looks like a diagonal 5th wave in Primary degree, and with that we should get 5 waves up in Intermediate degree. All or most of them will be connected with inverted zigzags that stretch and bend, with virtually no big impulse waves showing. If I counted the silver bull market, with impulse labeling, I would most certainly be counting them all wrong.  I cannot stress it enough times that there is a huge difference, between the impulse5 and the diagoanl5 wave set. It is the diagonal5  that tells us where we may be at, so they should never be ignored or brushed under with impulse5 labeling.

These diagonal waves really got going after the Nov 2001 bottom, and to the April 2011 peak, as waves overlapped as soon as silver dashed out the starting gate. My smallest degrees are in Minuette degree which show up in the bull market because they stretch or extend. When it stretches or extends, only the smaller degrees come out, not bigger degrees.

From the 2011 top to the December 2015 bottom, I can best get this decline into a zigzag decline, with one ugly diagonal “C” wave ending in December of 2015.  That would  be my 4th wave bottom at this time.  

Now we have to figure out what possibly may be next to fit into a  bigger picture. This would be the last and final 5th wave in Intermediate degree, consisting of another diagonal 5 waves or another not so obvious inverted zigzag.  Many times I’m not going to get the wave counts right, especially in the beginning, as there will be many zigzags that may form. Every “B” wave in a zigzag can produce flats expanded flats, some running flats, or produce a triangle before a strong degree shift.

If this is all reasonably true or something like it, then silver could break out to new record highs, or just a painful double top. This is still some time away, but the way silver has exploded, it could take a much shorter time period.  

Silver Intraday Bull Market Or Bull Trap Review

 

SIY00-June-15-2016

 

My friend and I were just talking about silver so I thought I would look for a potential wave count. Silver has also produced a rally like gold, but when I saw this peak I was looking at a potential ending diagonal. With so many overlapping waves I don’t think this is a 5th wave, but it sure could fit on the end of a “C” wave bull market. 

Either way, we should be heading for a correction and the type of the declining pattern will be the key, to see how far down this anticipated correction will take us. It could be an expanded pattern as well, so we would have to look for an early bottom.  Even if we just finished a wave 1, then its correction could hit a 61% retracement, or about the $16.50 price level.  The worst scenario would be if this silver peak, is a wave 2 top with wave three yet to come.