Tag Archives: SC&GSC

Mini DJIA Intraday Friday Review

 

YMU16-July-15-2016-2

 

The news of the coup attempt in Turkey has flooded the world, which gives the markets yet another fundamental reason why stocks should go down. When this market made its upside breakout, was because investors jumped back onto  the bullish bandwagon, with a huge influx of money going into ETFs.   Investors used the new record breakout as a “buy signal” which just goes to show that investors love to buy high, and sell low as the upside breakout may not be sustainable.  Jumping onto an upside breakout is a 1970’s thing as that is when technical analysis started to take hold with the advancement of computers for traders. 

I show an alternate wave count that could be the start of another Diagonal5. If so, then we could face another very deep correction, with a potential base at the 17,700 price level. This would be the setup for another huge rally, but I don’t want to speculate too far ahead. This market can make some wild twists and turns, as the bulls get sliced and diced and thrown into the stew pot. 

Only a few indices have not seen new record highs, so this may have to get cleared up as well. HDGE sure looks like it may want to make a run, as this market corrects.  They say news, which is treated like fundamentals, make the markets go up and down. In a few weeks time you will never know which wave structure did what, as Turkey is more important than Brexit already. 

Even at this point I still have several options, so until all of them are exhausted, we have to take one week at a time.  On Tuesday, the full moon will be with us, and that can produce very bullish moves as well.

One thing is for sure, and that is the markets did make a new record high breakout while everyone was busy worrying about Brexit. This shows that this market was far from dying a SC or GSC death, as “NO” 5 waves down sequence in Primary degree, has materialized since the 1932 bottom. 

 

Mini Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Review: Dancing To A Different Song

 

NQY00-June-30-2016

 

There is a key difference with the Nasdaq wave counts and that is the secondary peak is the highest one which topped much later than the other two indices did so this puts the Nasdaq on a different wave count. Or is it all that different?

That November 2015 peak crossed as a 3 wave pattern, after which it crashed very deep and then roared back up to pre Brexit highs. My “B” wave is an expanded top, and if this is true, then this market has to take out it’s all time high one more time. If it does it this year, that would make me a happy camper.

After this market hit the February bottom, it exploded again, but never pushed to new highs. I have this as an “A” wave top for now as we are working in a diagonal wave structure.  On the “B” wave top in Minute degree Brexit knocked the wind out of the sails and the markets imploded.  The implosion ended with a spike after which it exploded again.  In the end, I can see that the Brexit thing was just a big scare put into investors. Yes, it was all very bearish news, but it was short intense bearish news. Bearish news is usually a buy signal not a sell signal.

This summer could be very interesting as all we need is a new record high, and we can get close to moving the Cycle degree wave 3 to a 2016 peak.  Wasn’t 2000 a Cycle degree wave 3 peak? That I can easily work as an expanded top,  which always fools the majority, making the 2007 top a possible wave 3 in Primary degree.   

Sorry folks, but the forecasted 5 waves down in Primary degree, looks more and more absurd every day this market pushes higher. I will go on record that we will “never” see 5 waves down in Primary degree for several more decades, but we will see 5 waves down in Intermediate degree. 

Mini SP500 Intraday Rocket Ride Review

 

ESU16-June-30-2016

 

At this point the SP500 has added to the extra 4th wave that I would need to fill any 5 wave impulse, but a little triangle may also still need to play out.  We can only wait and see if this comes true. This would make a pretty good impulse and unless it was a small “C” wave bull market, the markets should push higher.

All the Brexit fear mongers will have wooden Pinocchio noses if this market pushed above pre Brexit level. We don’t have that far to go, as at least 75% has already been retraced.

 Counting from the 2009 bottom, I have gone back to the diagonal 5th wave pattern, and this 2015 peak could be wave three in Intermediate degree. Since we have advanced for some time and any 5 wave decline in Primary degree is still a no show, I am very suspicious that this Cycle degree “B” wave even exists.  The Primary degree “B” wave top will also be trashed for the time being as its home may still be a few years away.   I am looking for a possible wave three top in Cycle degree, and there is absolutely no room in my Cycle degree world, for a mythical 5 wave sequence in Primary degree.

Since 2013, I have been counting with Cycle degree or lower wave counts, as we must find “all” 5 waves in Cycle degree, before we even are allowed to enter the SC or GSC degree world. So remember that you will not find any SC or GSC degree wave counts that I am working. If you want the bigger wave count myth, there is no shortage of sites based on them out there.

DJIA Intraday Rocket Ride Review: Will It Keep Going?

 

YMU16-June-30-2016

 

Had enough of Brexit yet? I sure have because in the end, it’s all about hype, bearish hype going down and bullish hype going up. It is the intensity of this hype, or the white noise as I call it, that is more important. Brexit was just short, intense bearish news, which the markets have clearly started to confirm, as irrelevant. The DJIA needs to break above Brexit levels and then we know for sure that Brexit was nothing but a pile of BS.

Bearish sentiment!  😉 

I can give you a real boring wave count, where I show you a 4th wave correction. I can tell you that the markets are going much higher, as that would be very obvious.

It’s all about the not so obvious wave counts that I am concerned with, as they can produce some stunning surprise reversals. In a few years or even months, you will never know the exact peak, when all this Brexit happened, as on the weekly charts this was rather a small wave.  Sure, they will talk about it for decades, and all the super bears keep saying that this is the end, or the big one has started.

 If this is the case at this time, then we sure can’t have the markets heading higher above pre Brexit levels. We had a top in 2015 and we have lower lows as well, but 4th wave corrections can fool us into thinking the worst. So far from the 2015 top, this market has swung dramatically, but in the end it has been going sideways.

Besides the Nasdaq did not confirm the DJIA and SP500. 

The wave count I show above is an expanded pattern which could be just a flat type correction, with a wild expanded triangle in the “B” wave.  What this would mean is another decline to a new low, sending more traders into a panic.

If the 4th wave is in play, then this DOW will push higher, and we would still need another correction, which could then be a wave two correction in Minute degree.  I am sure the investors or traders are patriotic and will give a bullish showing going into the July 4th weekend.

I’m not saying that it is not going to get worse, as I am sure we are going to see a very big ugly bear market. It will prove that gravity in the markets is not a myth, but it is what shape this pattern will make, that is far more important.

On a bigger scale, Imagine we are swinging back and forth in a 4th wave in Intermediate degree, and a diagonal market. Diagonal markets produce zigzags, connected with flats and triangle patterns. I would still need a “C” wave bull market to help finish off one of the wave counts I have, where we are heading up to Cycle degree wave 3.

If this ends up true, then there is absolutely no way that we will ever get any 5 wave decline in Primary degree. We may never see one in decades, so keep on dreaming following all the SC and GSC degree wave counters. 

The very largest 5 waves down, we may see in the next 4 or 5 years, are 5 waves in Intermediate degree, and then only one set. 

We have Canada Day on Friday and the US has the July 4th on Monday, so we can party like there is no tomorrow, after all the big bears are saying that Brexit is going to bring on the apocalypse.

Mini DJIA Intraday Post Brexit Crash Review

 

YMU16-June-28-2016

 

We see the results of the Brexit vote and they voted with their finger on the “sell” button. What happens now? I can only talk about it in Elliott Wave terms, and from a Cycle degree perspective.  The big SC and GSC degree wave counts must be the 5 waves in Primary degree, because it they don’t get it again, their wave counts would  still be severely flawed. All my work is about two degrees lower, and 2 degrees doesn’t sound like much, but it is a real big thing if there is a 1.618 difference between each degree. (60%)

In a bearish phase certain things have to happen, to keep confirming the so called start of a big bear market, otherwise we are not in the bear market just yet. One big thing is I would not want to see this market retrace back above my 4th wave top, as that would be a good limit. Then this market should head back down with another bearish leg. Above all, this DJIA must not exceed or retrace the entire decline, because that would make the majority wrong.

The SC and GSC degree wave counters only have one big pattern they are looking for,  but in my Cycle degree world I can always have 5. Most of the time we can eliminate a few right off, but 2-3 alternate wave counts can always be active at the same time.

What would happen if the Cycle degree wave 3 is still ahead of us and not behind us? If so, then this market will display an entirely different bear market pattern. It would also give us a false forecast on how deep that crash would go. Are we going to get caught by the wave counters that forecast DOW 3500 or Dow 1000, if it stops dead at 6000? Of course I may be wrong with that number as well, so maybe it will stop at 5999.  🙂 

E-Mini SP500 Intraday Bull Market Review

 

ESM16-June-1-2016

 

Another new month has started and we are heading into a new moon this weekend.  So far the patterns still suggest a correction is happening, which means that the markets or SP500 can still breakout to new record highs.  Even though the DJIA and the SP500 can travel the same way, they still have chart differences that can give them two different wave counts.  

Chances are good that a small expanded pattern has happened, which means another push to the upside should also happen as expanded patterns can be very bullish. A small degree expanded pattern can get us a small degree 5th wave up, so we don’t want to think that this market is going to the moon. 

Any price level above 2110 will be plenty to confirm many of the past wave patterns, with the potential for my “B” wave in Primary degree to find another parking spot.  Sure, we want lifetime free parking for my “B” wave, but we know that, that can be wishful thinking.  Many of the Elliott Wave analysts are after a “B” wave top, but the difference is the degree that we think we are in.  All EW technicians that think they are in some SC or GSC degree world must get or the market must provide them with a run of 5 waves down in Primary degree.

These 5 waves down in Primary degree is the only pattern that they must get to even start to confirm that they are in a SC or higher degree position.   The difference with my wave counts is that I am looking for 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, finishing at a potential 4th wave bottom in Cycle degree.

Since the 2007 top, and down to early 2009 to a potential 2016 top and then to the next major bottom, can be a single expanded flat. As I have repeated it many times, that once expanded flats are played out, they can be extremely bullish with the development of the 5th wave. This is all drawn out on a static page which will give readers an idea of some of the language I will be using.

The problem with SC degree counting, is that it breeds complacent wave counting.  Once they find out that they have 5 waves and only DOW 6000, they may just think they are in a wave 1 position in Primary degree. If this turns out that way, then they will be making the same major mistake as they did in March of 2009. Screaming DOW 1000 while DOW 6000 has just been hit,  will tell us that SC and GSC degree wave counting will fail again. 

You will be left holding the bag as the new bull market soars and keeps right on going. 

 

Mini SP500 2009-2016 Review

 

ESM16-May-28-2016

 

I believe that we can have the 2009 bottom as a potential “A” wave in Primary degree. If we are to stay in sequence, then the 2009-2016 rally could be part of a triangle or an expanded flat in which we still have some potential Minor degree move to go. Since about May 2015 we have produced multiple tops, which many can call the real peak.

In reality, this is hardly ever the case, as many times an expanded pattern is involved.  The bad part about multiple tops is that it can take a long time to figure out which peak belongs to the bullish correction or which peak is already on the bearish side. At this time there still is a very good chance that this SP500 can still create a new record high, as we may cross in a three wave pattern.  Crossing to a new high with a three wave pattern, or a five wave pattern makes a huge difference in what location we may be close at. 

As long as I am hunting for a potential “B” wave top in Primary degree, then there is an extremely good chance that a five wave bear market will ensue. I have drawn up an idealized pattern or patterns, already and they will be posted as a permanent page.  What my biggest degree is in, makes a huge difference in all of this, as price forecasts will tumble and get destroyed if we think in bigger degrees than what we actually are. 

Besides counting in Cycle degree always puts you “in front” of the line not behind, any SC or GSC degree wave count. Before any SC or GSC degree forecast will ever work, “ALL” 5 Cycle degree positions must be found and accounted for.  It has been my goal with this web site to track the 5 Cycle degree patterns, which at this point I know of no other wave counter that is doing this.

It will be critical to see if a new high is created or if it still falls short of doing so. We have the month end coming up, with a potential new moon in the firts part of June, so we can expect some wild moves.  

Another Look At The DJIA 2007-2016

 

In general, I do not post on Sundays or any US and Canadian holidays, but occasionally I will break that guideline to give a bigger picture review.  There is always a minimum of 5 different patterns that can be in effect at any one time, which is specific to the wave count that we may think we are in. “May think” are the key words as everybody has an opinion in what degree we may be in. I spent years, counting in all the highest degree scales and there were always too many waves left to label. Also, too many major bull market turnings were being missed.

We have to get rid of 3 choices quickly as 5 alternates just don’t cut it.  I don’t like to post alternate wave counts in one chart, as I start my wave counts fresh everyday.  This erases or wipes clean any wave counts that do not seem to be working. 

 

YMY00-May-23-2016

 

This wave position gives us a look at a potential “B” wave triangle which would have started at the bottom Of March 2009. The “A” wave in Primary degree terminated with a zigzag looking wave, which works as a lead in to an expanded flat.

Since 2015 the markets have gone sideways with wild moves in both directions, which is not what I would expect in a one shot inverted “ABC”.  Besides a flat correction in an expanded flat would be rare if not impossible, and another bull market zigzag would suggest a very big triangle. I don’t think the markets are going for a Cycle degree triangle, as the solar cycles will eventually kill that idea. 

A single expanded flat with a triangle inside the  “B” wave would work, but chances are we would still need to breakout to a new record high this year. If this becomes an “E” wave, then I can see the end of this huge bear market rally that started in early 2009. 

The triangle “B” scenario in stocks is much like the triangle “B” wave that we can get from oil, except oil was two degrees lower.  Triangles love the “B” and 4th wave positions, and triangles always force us to change our degree levels, if we like it or not.

The worst scenario that can still happen is that we actually finished a diagonal triangle 4th wave and we have a “thrust”, still to play out. 

I have created an idealized chart of all this starting when this “B” wave top can be better confirmed. This will eventually be posted on a permanent page. Idealized charts are critical in helping to keep the sequence in line and to know what we are supposed to be looking for.  There is too much of this aimless wave counting, and most of it comes from not putting in the work to go back in history and review everything to date.  

Any other wave count would have given us a major spike blow off, which we can see has not happened yet. Instead, we get a mess of waves up top, which eventually must be sorted out.  Which wave is still on the bullish side and which ones are already on the bearish sides, must eventually be worked out.  Just because the markets go down does not instantly mean a major bear market is on, as it can just be a correction to the ongoing bullish phase.  

Once this “B” wave top is better confirmed, then the decline should be 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, which many SC and GSC wave counters, may call the start of a Primary degree 5 wave run.  Not in 15 years has the markets given the big degree wave counters their 5 waves down in Primary degree, which must happen to even begin to confirm, any SC and GSC degree wave positions. 

Using only Cycle degree as my largest key degree is not something I dreamed up just to be different, but all Cycle degree positions must be found first, before we can move into the SC or GSC degree world.  It may take until 2029 before Cycle degree wave 5 is completed, so that is still over 13 years away. 

WTI Crude Oil 1990-2016 Review

 

CLN16-May-21-2016-2

It is always very important to review as far back as necessary, but in this case we started in 1990. I am working a triangle inside a Primary degree “B” wave, and at this time no “B” wave in Primary degree has been found. I started switching over to Cycle degree wave counting in 2013, which means that “none” of my wave counts have passed any SC or GSC degree gates. (all wave 3’s) Throughout its history crude oil has bounced from one extreme and then back again, with oil gluts thrown in as well. Besides wild bull markets, oil will continue to do this for many decades to come.

The 2008 crash can be a set of 5 waves, as a flat or a small zigzag would show up better and be more obvious. What that 2008 crash was or contained is extremely important as otherwise we would not have a big zigzag crash, It would be just another flat in Intermediate degree and our present rally would be an impulse 5 waves. 

 This makes the 2008 to the 2016 bottom crash a pretty good looking zigzag to me, ending in a “D” wave crash. From 2016 anything can still go wrong in this oil bull market,  as now the $55-$60 price level could show some serious resistance.  Oil can’t continue on this blistering pace for very long as at a minimum it needs a good correction.  We can see a small spike forming on this large weekly chart, so this is always a good sign for a reversal. 

Longer term the $89 price level can give us more grief as we would be getting close to a top trend line. (Not drawn in) 

Ideally, we would want crude oil to break through that $89 price level as I think $115 or higher is in the cards.  How it gets there will be important as we could get an uneven zigzag bullish phase that will surprise us all.   We have a few years to wait to see if this all plays out. The halfway point which would be an “A” wave peak is not here yet, so we need to count out a 5 wave diagonal before the “A” wave arrives. 

Three years for an Intermediate degree rally to play out, may be far too short of a time period, as the others took 7-8 years. Nothing says that the time period has to repeat itself, but we can’t ignore it.  When it comes to time, wave counters can pull off anything, as one time a SC correction only takes three years while a Cycle degree correction takes 5 years. Why in the world would a GSC degree correction take hundreds of years?   Most oil bull traders get into a panic when their position turns into the red, and besides, they would get stopped out at a loss, just in time for the oil market to soar again.     

 A good site for oil news is OIlPRICE.com, and it is also available from a link in the sidebar. 

Mini SP500 Daily Cash Chart Review

 

ESY00-May-13-2016

I posted the DJIA with a new wave position for the 2015 peak as at this time that peak is the high to beat. Of course, unless we are going to slide down the slippery slope of 5 waves, that 2015 peak must not get touched anymore. This gives us a very small window of error, but being a small window can also help to eliminate a wave count.

Unless something dramatically changes the picture, I will run this wave count for the time being. This would also make the SC and GSC degree crowd happy as they finally would get their 5 waves down in Primary degree. But what if it is only in Intermediate degree? Ah, that does make a huge difference, as our price expectations would be radically different.   Five waves down is a setup for  failure to be ready for another bull market that will be sure to follow.  Chances are good that the majority of wave counters will be oblivious to this fact as they may still be chasing  SC&GSC degree wave counts.

This is an ugly wave pattern at this time with an expanded pattern for the “B” wave correction, so we still need to on the lookout for other possible wave counts.

Right or wrong, I always like to prepare readers as sometimes changing herd thinking is like trying to stop a speeding truck going down the freeway, needless to say they don’t turn on a dime.