Tag Archives: Gold/Apple Ratio

Apple Stock Breaks New Record Highs!

Last month, Apple’s stock chart started to go vertical and is now forming a spike. I use one trend line which touches close to 3 peaks, and now is on its 4th peak. All this under the anticipation of the iPhone X  release.  This is nothing new that hasn’t happened many times before. What’s just a bit different than any other time is that all major stock indices in the USA, are also at world record highs this past week.

Apple’s charts have diagonal qualities to them so I used zigzags with this wave count.  Sooner or later every bull market will start to act like nothing can take it down,  so investors feel “Safe” inside the herd of investors. The VIX confirms this, as it also crashed to another extreme new low price.  The Apple $200 price forecast is pretty common, but that is a safe forecast.

How deep or long of a correction Apple will have, all depends on the degree of correction, that we may see in the next few years. Any bottom trend line would be pretty useless as it would only touch one point while the top has 4 touch points. There are two major price bottoms of $89 and $55 which we can use, but they are just visible targets on the charts.

Insiders left a long time ago and they are not rushing in to buy. What really stands out, but few will ever know about or even use is the Gold/Apple ratio. The cash, gold price divided by Apple’s stock price, will give you the amount of shares you can buy with one gold ounce.

At this peak the Gold/Apple ratio has hit a record extreme of 7.5:1. This is the most compressed number since I have been tracking this ratio, and it shows how expensive it is when we use real money. Sorry, Bitcoin is not real money, it’s invisible speculation money.

Apple could be at a wave 3 top in Cycle degree as its ability to innovate are being hampered. At a minimum Apple could hit that $85-90 price level again, which is barely a 50% correction. The $150 and $140 price level also needs watching as that could supply short term support.

The only important support is the price that will kick of a new bull market, and nobody knows where that may end.

Harry Dent has forecasted a DJIA 5000 price level to come, and Apple is part of that. So when the big markets start to crash will Apple stock holders be,  “safe”? I doubt it very much.

Making a DJA forecast of 5000 means little if we can’t forecast the bull market that will be sure to follow. Besides, there is “NO” previous bull market support down at the 5000 price level.

Apple Another Record High Update

About a week ago Apple’s stock price peaked and then started to decline. We need more evidence just the same to help confirm that the Apple bull market is toast. There are so many gaps in the Apple charts that it borders on the side of being insane. Insiders sold out a long time ago, with other insiders selling the most in May of 2017. 

Knowing that insiders have sold should be the biggest red flag to not take Apple as a long term investment. Insiders sell high while the retail investors buy high. Buying high or chasing a bull market only works for people that have a short term time frame. Sooner or later the last greatest fool will buy the peak just before it crashes. This peak seems to be about $164 at this time. Apple has already backed off $10,  and I would expect much more just to get the bear market all warmed up.  

The 2015 to 2016 decline,  was a correction in Intermediate degree matching most of the big indices as well. I love Apple products, but that doesn’t mean that Apple can’t crash into a big bear market. More analysts were calling for $200 per share, but these forecasts are consensus forecasts. Consensus forecasts hardly ever come true, so most of the time I use them as a contrarian indicator. 

The Gold/Apple ratio is at another extreme of 8.46:1 which makes Apple very expensive when compared to a Troy ounce of gold. Ratios are more of an objective look at the markets, and I try and calculate them regularly when I can. At this time I keep about 15 ratios on different asset classes and that is enough for me to handle. 

Apple is also heading for a Cycle degree wave 3 top, so any correction is going to take years not weeks or months. How deep Apple will fall is hard to tell right now, but it should fall well below the 4th wave in Intermediate degree that I show in the chart above. One Cycle degree decline is twice as large as an Intermediate degree, so we could see Apple fall to the Primary degree 4th wave sooner or later. 

For now we have to see if a further decline becomes a reality, and a 5 wave declining sequence is the best evidence we have that a bearish trend has much further to go. As I post the SP500 has also declined in a mini crash so that sure helps to make the bearish case on all stock indices that I cover. 

Updated

September, 23, 2017

Apple stock suffers worst product launch week of the iPhone era – MarketWatch

Apple, Bull Market Crash Update

 

The Apple chart above was my last update from May 21, 2017 when I figured another major top could be coming soon.

I can’t always remember the exact wave count from a month ago, so I have to look back to see where the wave count last finished at.   In this case the top wave 5 in Intermediate degree is still holding.

What followed was a very dramatic move down. This move down can also work as an “ABC” decline leading to a potential wave one of a set of diagonal waves.  We are coming off one of the biggest world tech bubbles, the likes of what happen in 2000 when the  “Dot Com Era”  came to an abrupt end.  Of course, Apple was walking to a different drummer as well, and if we were paying attention at that time, Apple was just in a big correction.  I can’t always give readers a complete update on Apple as I try and stay away from analyzing single stocks.

I do it because I’m a big fan of Apple products and I own three or more of their products which I use  everyday. 

We also have a big gap still open below present prices, which could work as a strong temporary support area. It’s not rocket science that when a stock price dips, all the bad news becomes front page news.  The fear of not selling enough iPhones is all it takes, sending Apple investors into a panic. In reality, it’s just a bunch of algorithms gone rouge.  :roll: Not too many traders that are nimble with their mouse clicks, can keep up to a fast downward move like Apple made. 

Computer trading works in milliseconds, and can also produce many of the gaps we see.  Last month the Gold/Apple ratio was hitting extreme readings of just under 8:1 which broke every record that I have calculated since 2016. 

Not until the Gold/Apple ratio starts to improve by the ratio getting wider ratio will it be logical to even think about buying Apple shares. I can’t give specific buy recommendations, but I’m sure readers will see me become very bullish again. 

Mind you it may take several years before that can happen. In the meantime, all we can do is track Apple’s progress,  trying to  confirm any bearish decline. 

Apple Soars Crossing the $150 Price Level. Is It A Warren Buffet rally?

 

 

In the last few years Apple was inflicted with the “Bear Market Disease”.  This bearish phase lasted about 17-18 months before Apple  turned and soared again. 

News reports show that Warren Buffet has been buying Apple stock,  while insiders have sold out.   Warren Buffet and Apple are two of the biggest elephants in the room, and it would not surprise me that the Warren Buffet group created this bull market in the first place.  Buying into a stock that has just broken all Gold/Apple extreme expensive ratios again,  just does not make any sense to a contrarian analyst like me.  Investors just love to buy high and then get out after the price crashes.  The Gold/Apple ratio is sitting at 8.20:1  which is one of the lowest recordings this year. 

For my readers you can say that Warren Buffet is buying Apple shares close to a Cycle degree wave 3 top?  There is no way that Apple can stay “Up”,  if the rest of the markets execute a big swan dive. The Apple stock is everywhere, and it is only a matter of debate, at which bull market bottom this Apple stock can find support.  An exact top is always a problem 

We have more gaps in Apple that must be breaking a record as well.  The last 5th wave is the extended wave as they are small but also contain gaps. The last 5 waves up, could also be a “C” wave so in this case  it makes little difference. 


Updated May, 9, 2017

This morning gold plunged and Apple shares charged through the $150 per share price level.  This briefly pushed  the Gold/Apple ratio into a new expensive record when using gold as money. This ratio touched 7.85:1 which is the most expensive ratio since I have been tracking with the Apple stock price. 

The recent Apple, and US dollar rally combined with a gold price plunge, confirms that, “Stock Mania” is still hanging around.  

Apple Chart 2015-2017 And The Gold/Apple Ratio Review

 

 

Apple has made an impressive move, but when you look at the present pattern high, it is a long and skinny pattern that switched to smaller wave subdivisions. This is typical of one part of a zigzag and I have to count it as such.  With wave 3 in Intermediate degree ending in early 2015, then we have to look for the correction  that is supposed to follow.

Since they are all diagonal waves can overlap with the “ABC” heading down.  From the May 2016 bottom Apple took off  with all rocket engines firing. Well, most of them. Enough to launch, Apple stock into space  one more time.

A “C” wave bull market like this cannot be maintained and sooner or later it has to slump. This could be a Cycle degree slump, so some little 20% pullback is not going to cut it.  This Apple chart has many open gaps below so in reality there is nothing holding it up.

All this action made Apple more expensive if we look at how many Apple shares can we buy with one ounce of USD priced gold.

At this time you can only buy 8.79 shares with gold, which is another extreme, Gold/Apple ratio reading since I started record them on the way up.

In the long term I’m sure Apple will retrace all of this diagonal 5th wave bull market, and more when it comes to push and shove of extreme emotions.

The idea that the markets work on logic is just a myth from my perspective, as they run on pure emotional power and a bunch of liquidity.

Even Al Gore an insider, has sold Apple shares and he is not the only one that has been selling. Yet when we look at the analysts’ recommendations the majority has a buy rating on Apple. Some hold recommendations, but no sell recommendations.  This is very common as I have documented this many times with other single stocks.  This will never change as analysts take the average Joe to the cleaners every time.

Is Apple Going For Another Record In The History Books?

 

 

The Apple price chart is only a few dollars away from breaking all time new record highs. It blasted right through the gap,  at the $130 price level, with another recent gap.  So the gap at $130 never really closed this time.  From the 2016 low we now have two major open gaps to think about, with a third gap way down at the $75 price level. I still may be too high with my degree levels, but this sure looks like a 5th wave bullish phase that is going for a blow-off.

The Gold/Apple ratio has gone insane just a bit more, and has now reached an all time ratio record high of 9.38:1. Jumping on this Apple bandwagon is just asking for severe punishment, as you could end up being the greatest fool holding another falling paper asset.  As I have mentioned in the past, any gold ratio is a more objective way of looking at stocks, but the world does not use objective indicators.  With the Gold/Apple ratio being this high it is insane to think that Apple is a good investment at these price levels.

The Apple chart looks more like Swiss Cheese with the amount of holes in it. Not until the Gold/Apple ratio starts to spread again, closer to 21:1 or so, when it “might” get ready for a lower risk investment. Of course, this is when Apple will be much lower in price, and we know how much the majority hate to buy low.  Most people don’t even know why they are buying Apple stock, because most only care that it keeps going up.

I’m sure there is a ton of sell stops below all present prices, and once they get triggered all the selling of iPhones in the world will mean nothing.