Tag Archives: Elliott Wave VIX

VIX Intraday Crash Update!

The VIX rocket move perfectly reflects the fear that was present in the SP500 and the fear gage is starting to dissipate for now. Of course, if the bigger bearish scenario is alive, then the VIX should find a bottom, followed by another leg up.  This leg up could produce another complete set of 5 waves up, but not before a good correction has taken place.  This may not happen until the VIX settles at the previous bottom of the 4th wave position.  Just below that is a big gap that is still open, so this open gap has a good chance of also getting filled with this trip down. Just under $15 would close the gap which can repel the VIX to soar again.

Higher lows also have to dominate as well to help confirm that the VIX is still in a bull market.


VIX Futures Intraday Bullish Phase Update

Just before the end of February the VIX bottomed and now has to proceed back to its bullish phase. I think the entire VIX correction is a flat, as I count 3-3-5. Change this same pattern to a Primary degree flat, and we can use it for the DJIA Cycle degree correction.

Many VIX spikes that show in bar type charts, do not show up when switching to line type charts. This throws any wave count into constant disarray. We can see how explosive the VIX can be and I’m sure many new players have joined the VIX bull market.

Eventually all the contrarian indicators will pile up against this VIX bull market, so those VIX investors find themselves in a bull trap! VIX bulls will get slashed by the bears if they think they can “invest” in the VIX.

Our last price peak was about $50, so any bullish phase should surpass this price level by a large margin.

The VIX Crash Daily Chart Update

The VIX spiked up to 50 after which it turned south with a vengeance.  It was an ugly correction and if I’m right,  then another leg up in the VIX will happen. We can see that the VIX  developed a “wedge”  which every technical analyst is taught to recognize, yet they never saw this explosive VIX rally coming.  Everybody on this planet was betting against volatility, but in doing so the VIX bears painted themselves into a bear trap.

Yes the commercial traders ended up becoming net short the VIX, but that can all change dramatically in a very short period of time.

One thing we can always depend on and that is investors can easily get into a trap, and recognizing this fact before it reverses is very important. The VIX is a world full of diagonal wave structures so don’t expect some perfectly formed impulse waves to develop. It isn’t going to happen,  no matter how much we wish any pray for it to happen.

In late 2008 the VIX had already peaked out at 90, yet the bears persisted in forecasting lower lows in stocks.

Insiders were buying stocks in late 2008 already, so the VIX bull market was doomed at that time. Will this happen again?, of course it will, nothing will stop it. When the public and the VIX are in general agreement, then the VIX will see a dramatic reversal. This will not be easy to catch as the VIX may have to score 100+ before a big reversal becomes a reality.

VIX Explosion Update

The VIX has demonstrated what it can do after it is boxed into a corner or a wedge like condition. To the majority this was a surprise move that they never saw coming, but there are the few that did see it coming. The commercial traders sure saw it coming as they were net long for sometime already. Of course the non-commercial speculators were extremely bearish towards the VIX. How can you lose on a sure trade betting against volatility?

It’s easy if you owned a bunch of XIV shares and don’t know how to read charts. Of course, someone will always get blamed for, “taking down the house”.  In my experience, it’s always the speculators that get into traps. The speculators, trend chasers, or managed money people, is always the group, being quoted in the financial news. When they are quoted,  they are just about always in a trap as well.

The XIV will disappear as it sounds like they will stop trading in XIV by Februray, 20, 2018.

Last Friday they posted the COT report in the VIX. We can see a massive change by the commercials to a point where they are now in a net short position by about 45,000 contracts. Of course the speculators panicked and did the exact opposite.  In other words, they are chasing the VIX bull market. Eventually the speculators will get into a bigger VIX bull trap and the markets will force another reversal.

There is a good chance wave 2 in Minor degree has finished with waves 3-4-5 still to complete. After these 5 waves up in Minor degree have completed, then we should see a massive VIX crash that will shock the majority again.

The VIX peaked at $50 and eventually the VIX should cross the $90 price level. The VIX may not do it on this trip, but by the time this bear market is finishing I’m sure the VIX will far exceed $90

The Explosive VIX Review

The VIX had one of its biggest one day price jumps in its entire history, which the majority was betting on that it would never happen.

The dumb money or (managed money) were already in a massive bear trap, while the commercials had built up huge long positions.

Those investors that think they are investing will always get fried as you don’t invest in anything that is extremely leveraged and a futures contract that is all about volatility in the first place.   When you are playing with fire, you can’t expect to not get burnt, but these emotional traders will blame others first for their mistakes.  Being complacent in a violent and volatile world is the biggest mistake we can make.

The commercial reports don’t come out until Friday, but we should see the commercials closing off their long positions, but could also be building up their net short VIX positions.  This doesn’t happen overnight, but can be a long  process.

The VIX spiked to the $50 price level, but the $90 price level is the number to beat as that is the 2008 peak in the VIX.

VIX Impending Correction.

The VIX sliced through the top trend line before it reversed. This trend line sure seems to give any VIX bullish phase some pause, but eventually the VIX would have to clear 5 of the biggest spikes, by a wide margin.  The VIX could dip down to the $11 price range before it bottoms and soars again.

VIX Intraday Update: Another Leg Up?

Since early January 2018 the VIX has created a bottom after which the VIX charged up.  There is a high probability that the VIX correction is over, and it should add on another leg up. I will stay with the diagonal wave count as that is the main pattern of the VIX as well. The commercial traders are still net long by a long shot, and if the VIX continues north than this ratio should start to change as well. That won’t happen overnight, but we are assured of some violent moves in both directions.

We do have 2 open gaps below present prices, but they may not get closed on this trip. Even though the SP500 is still breaking new records,  fear is creeping back into the markets.  Right now the $14 price level could give us some stiff resistance, but if the bigger run is in the cards, then that $14 price level well get retraced by a wide margin. The $17 and $21 price levels, should be next to get hit if this run has any legs at all.

December, 13, 2017: VIX Intraday Crash Review

In early December the VIX spiked and then reversed and crashed. Vertical moves like this can never be maintained as they are also the fastest moves we can have.  $14.60 seems to be the price to beat and if my zigzag decline is correct,  then this $14.60 price level will get retraced.  We have an open gap just dead ahead so that could provide some resistance again, but at the same time could supply support, for a much stronger VIX move. 

The markets are at euphoric bubble highs with the VIX at record lows.  The VIX is where the real fear is shown with charts, and at this time investors show no real fear, just yet.   The fear will come back into the markets as bullish record highs always traps the majority. Thinking that good times are still to come,  always means  the end of a bull market, not the beginning of one.  

The VIX Intraday Spike Review

With this bar type setting the VIX produced a sharp spike to the downside. I like to see this happen towards the end of a long decline, but this spike was computer generated as it corresponded with Black Friday as well.  The spike back up, still has a small gap in it which should still get closed off.

This spike does “not” show up when I switch to a line type of a chart. Technically speaking the VIX would still have to drop to the $9.00 price level before all the gaps are closed off.

There are a few gaps still open well above todays prices so these open gaps work like a magnet, drawing prices to them.

That $8.60 bottom represents a huge VIX bear trap, which is the opposite to the SP500 bull trap!

VIX Intraday Crash Review

The VIX shows how violently it can move in both directions. It may travel to new record lows, but it is best to keep alternate bottoms just in case no new lows develop.  It also shows has fast the VIX can drop once a vertical spike has developed. On the larger scale the VIX spiked in late 2008 well before the stock market hit bottom in early 2009.   Steven Jon Kaplan called the end of the VIX bull market in late 2008, and he was right on the money. 

There is a small gap that opened around the 11.30 price level, so we know that a VIX bounce is coming again. 

VIX Intraday Bullish Phase Update

The VIX has been reacting like it should, which is a visual representation of fear in the market place. Many don’t care about the VIX  as they think the lower it goes the higher the bull market will go.  It also means that more and more investors were caught in a VIX bear trap.  All gaps below have been closed off, and one big gap in early September has now been closed off as well.   Since today was a very steep rally we should expect a correction, but not break new record lows again. 

VIX Intraday Rally Review

The VIX has been on a bit of a rally, but a wide open gap formed on the way up. I call this more like a Scalene triangle with an open end. Pattern wise it could be a diagonal 5th wave, but if this is the case, then the VIX should see yet another record low.  I would love to see this gap closed before the VIX pushes higher, but there is never any guarantee that this bottom gap will get close anytime soon. 

There is one big open gap above present prices, which will get closed, but it also could produce unexpected resistance. In early October there were many gaps that opened up,  which now have been closed. Even when they are already closed off, they can supply a strong support price range. 

The VIX has been rolling around record lows just like stocks have been rolling around record highs, so in that respect there is good inverse synchronicity. 

VIX Intraday Gyrations Update

One thing we will always get are wild swings in both directions, which forces many of the simple impulse waves to overlap at critical points. The only way we have a chance to wave count the VIX, is to make sure we count the waves all as diagonal waves with only small runs of simple impulse waves. VIX is one world where diagonal waves rule with no exceptions.

Silver is another one of those diagonal asset classes which has persisted since the 1993 silver bottom. The above chart looks like another zigzag is forming, but a bit more downside can still happen. The VIX can hit $10 which takes us close to the previous bullish phase bottom. 

My starting Minute degree level may be a bit too high, but this can be adjusted on the fly if need be. In this case we should not see a new record low before the VIX cranks up again. 

Next Thursday will be the end of the month and several jobs reports will also come out by Friday. This could make for some wild moves so we should always keep that in mind. 

There is one small open gap above todays prices, so this will be the first price target that should get hit again. Many analysts got a real thrill when the VIX jumped 30% in one day, but that may not happen again for some time. Maybe it will jump 50-60% instead.  😉   Of course that may also be wishful thinking on my part. 

We have one small open gap at the $23 price level so that would be the next big price target I would like to see get hit! 

This may happen this year or even closer to the 1987, 30 year anniversary date.  Years ending with a 7 have been disasters for the stock markets in the past, so this year could also bring us some surprising results. 

VIX Intraday Rally Update

It seems that the VIX bear trap has now come and gone, so the next thing we would have to look for is a VIX bull trap. The decline sure looked like an impulse which means that a potential “B” wave VIX bull trap can still happen. All gaps below have been closed, with one big gap only about 50 cents away from being filled at $15.50.  A fake “B” wave run could send the VIX right back down, even to the point that a new record low can be achieved.

Stocks would have to make a violent comeback for the VIX bearish scenario to play out.

Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’–the VIX–jumps 24% amid tumbling Dow, Barcelona terror attack – MarketWatch

There are plenty of fundamental reasons that the majority of analysts uses to justify the market decline, with most of them just “parroting” another analyst’s opinion. Fundamentals which analysts get from the news is a lagging indicator at best. They ignore the fact that the markets have seen record bullish highs, which has created an extreme overbought situation. 

Technically speaking, eventually the VIX should match or surpass the 2008 peak of the VIX. It may take 3-4 years to get there, which still seems a long way off.

When we start getting open gaps as the VIX soars, then we have to be aware that the VIX can crash right back down and close a few of these potential gaps. 

Quick VIX Bearish Decline Review

We had a great little rally with the VIX, followed by what sure looks like a near perfect five wave impulse. This could be a bear trap all the same, if another small zigzag decline develops.  That would allow the perfect decline to fit into a zigzag and produce an earlier bottom.  During what I have as a 4th wave,  2 gaps opened up, but now both gaps have been closed off.

 One big gap above remains open which makes a bullish run still very likely. It may take its sweet time to close that top gap, but it will get closed. The $17.25 price level will now be the  next new target for the VIX to retrace,  

VIX Intraday Crash Update

Late last month the VIX bottomed and then proceeded with a violent move to the upside. Violent moves’ like this are commonplace with the VIX. The VIX  world is the world of diagonal waves. If you want lots of practice counting diagonal waves, then the VIX is one place you will get  your belly full of choppy waves.   Silver is another asset class where diagonal waves seem to rule. 

The bottom trend line shows a potential higher low, which is the general description of a bull market. The last thing we  want is a new record low, as the indices would then have to give us a new  record high as well.  The $11.50 price is where a small open gap sits, but a big gap opened up on the way down.

I’m very confident that the big open gap will get closed off, if this present decline contains another zigzag. I show a zigzag decline which should turn, but we have to keep our options open just the same. This is very early in any VIX bullish move. as much more should come in the coming weeks and months. 

Gundlach is set to make a killing as market ‘fear gauge’ soars to Election Day high – MarketWatch

Gundlach seems to know how to play the VIX as it can be traded as a futures contract. It would be a massive understatement if he does not have the staying power, to wait for a few more legs up in the VIX. 

VIX Bull Run Rallies To $17

From a bear trap, to a mini bull trap all in a few short days. The last little gap from the bottom up, is close to the horizontal line. The move up in the VIX was dramatic and near vertical. It is impossible for investors to maintain this level of fear, because if they did, sooner or latter the guys with white coats will have to subscribe some drugs to calm investors down. 

In the end, if the bigger VIX bullish phase has started, then the VIX should not crash to new record lows again for a long time. 

Of course they always have to find a reason for any market move, so blaming President Trump for the decline in stocks is the natural thing to do. 

The ideal move would send the VIX much higher, as we do have a hidden gap at the $27 price level.  Any gap always has a 90% chance of getting filled, but how long it can take to fill any open gaps could take many years. 

VIX Intraday Rally Review: Killing The VIX Bear!

Applying a wave count to the VIX may be a futile effort, but it is a way to communicate any potential move, as long as we understand that diagonal wave structures are the main wave types in anything related to the VIX.  

Any VIX move to the upside shows that fears about the stock market is rising. There are also spikes in the VIX that don’t show up when we switch to line type, so we have to ignore that single plunge below $9.  

The starting degree level may be too large, but that is not an issue when at this time.  It must be reviewed once this all starts to advance in a more obvious move that the mainstream starts to report on. In the short term,  I wouldn’t like to see this VIX hit another record low, but would rather see a new record high. 

There have been no gaps that opened up,  so that is a good thing at this time. Tracking any open gaps that may develop is very important as gaps supply potential turning points.  We do have a gap at about the $23 price level, so longer term this could provide some resistance. 

Waking up the VIX bulls is the same thing as waking up the stock market bears, so if you choose to ignore the warnings, the stock bulls may find themselves sliced, diced and cooking on the barbecue this summer.

 A third of millennials think now is the time to jump into the market – MarketWatch

When I read the link above it tells me that this age bracket has learned nothing from history, and when we ignore history we are certainly doomed to repeat it.  Don’t worry as all generations have made that same mistake over and over, and no amount of screaming  doom and gloom scenarios will change that. Getting into a market before solar cycle #25 has started is a recipe for disaster.

VIX Intraday Bear Trap Review

Yesterday the VIX created a wild move to the downside just above the $9.04 price level. This has a very good chance of being a false spike as it does not show in a line type chart.  High speed computer trading or algorithms running amok are the main source of these erroneous  spikes. No human can react this fast to produce some of these spikes.

What looks like a great start to an impulse, but diagonal waves can change that idea very fast. All the same we have a great looking spike, and we need to see the VIX keep right on going if the bigger bearish move is here. No gaps opened up by this move to the upside,  so I consider that a good thing at least in the short term. 

VIX Intraday Wild Swing Update

I applied a few wave positions this time, but we have to be aware that we are dealing with extreme diagonal types of waves. On June the 9th the VIX had its last major low,  which has not been exceeded at this time. This has produced a higher low which is the conventional description for a bull market.  

 A massive spike up, and then this morning we had another spike to the downside.  This downside price spike, is what I would like to see hold.  

I mention before that the VIX could see the $15 price level, which stopped close to my invisible top trend line.  The VIX has to crush this $15 price level, if a larger VIX bullish phase is already in progress.  I’m not a big fan of the trend lines being used in the markets, as they have abused trend lines to a point that they no longer make any sense. Besides, any kid with a ruler can draw trend lines, once they know how to join 2 or 3 peaks together. 

I switched to use two parallel lines, as that can work for 3 wave zigzag moves and 5 impulse waves as well. When the markets break away from two parallel lines, chances are good, it’s a correction or a diagonal.  

VIX Daily Chart New Record Low Review

The VIX has now broken to the downside, creating a new record low in the process. The crude wave count that I do have, is all about diagonal wave structures as there are only a few great looking impulse waves between the zigzags. The entire VIX pattern is diagonal all the way, so if you want lots of practice looking for diagonals waves, then the VIX is one great place to start with.

Stocks have now backed off a bit so we could see a rise in the VIX  or a complete bullish phase that will impress us, once it gets going.   A bear trap in the VIX is a bull trap in stocks so they really don’t travel without each other moving inversely to each other. 

Many consider the VIX a pile of bullshit, but don’t tell that to the contrarians the called  the bottom of the 2009 crash, followed by the peak in the VIX in late 2008.  I show the 2015 peak as a wave 4 in  Intermediate degree which was a much smaller peak than the peak of late 2008.

Now we have to see if it all holds and the VIX starts to make another run north.  

VIX Explosive Rally Review: Mother Of All 5th Wave Extensions.

The VIX is a great example how 5th waves can extend, no real 1-2, 1-2 wave count  can be found.  It closed the huge gap very quickly,  but another big gap remains as the VIX soared.   The  gap that opened yesterday is also a potential base of a previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, so this VIX can crash just as fast as it shot up.   Closing the bullish spike can still happen, but it doesn’t have to close off. We just don’t  want to see any more new record VIX lows. 

This fear spike is very small degree wise, so any Cycle degree bear market would still have to push this VIX to the sky. Mind you, it will be one of the wildest rides that we will run into.  Since we have 5 waves completed, then this VIX has to go into a correction, which I think has already started. 

In the long run no herd of bullish investors, can maintain their fear levels, as they would have a nervous breakdown.  🙂 

VIX Futures 2008-2017 Review



I recently read an email that explains how useless the VIX really is and that the market will stay bullish as long as it is below a certain price.  From my perspective, this is all a pile of bullshit as contrarians like Steven Jon Kaplan have used the VIX very effectively in calling many market tops and bottoms. Once I started to use the VIX combined with wave analysis, I found that the VIX is an indispensable indicator when we look at it from a contrarian point of view. 

Any indicator that the public does not use, works much better than something that the majority use. 

All we have to do is match up the majority of big spikes in the VIX, and it will match many buying positions in stocks.  The most obvious buying time came in late 2008 as the VIX made its last high before it started to crash. The 2008 time period matched the sc# 23 low and the start of sc#24.  All the talking heads were bearish in this  2008 time period, as the majority were dumping stocks,  as fast as their little fingers could perform a mouse click.

The VIX also blasted up in a 3 wave pattern which also indicated that the VIX would retrace its entire bullish spike.  Of course, all the wave analysts at that time ignored everything to do with the VIX, as they were forecasting the VIX to go much higher. Dow “1000” was the battle cry at that time. Did all the wave counters, switch to a very bullish outlook? Not a chance as they were all in sympathy with the crowd, so you were not prepared for the bull market in stocks that was sure to follow.  One of the biggest stock buying times in history and wave followers were left high and dry as the markets took off. 

With a double spike back in 2008, and being close to a Fibonacci 89 price level, the VIX had only one choice and that was to head back down, as stocks started to soar. 

After 2008 we saw a grinding VIX decline  as stocks turned into stock mania. Recently the VIX had an 8 year bear market with wild spikes of fear sending investors into a panic every time.  

Recently the VIX crashed to another record low of just under $10, leaving behind another long spike.  If a big bear market is coming then the VIX has to soar and work its way back up. How far the VIX can go is always hard to judge, but I’m sure the VIX will one day cross the $50 price level again, and if we are really lucky, that $89 price level will get hit again. 

At this time we still have a small open gap below present prices.  That should still get closed off, but the stock herd is about as complacent as they can get. 

The more complacent, they become sets them up for a stock bear attack, as the stock bears always attack, when the stock bulls least expect it. 

Will the stock market investors learn from all this? Not a chance, as only a small percentage understand buying low or selling high.  All the VIX patterns are diagonal in nature as they all overlap constantly, and besides the VIX is an extremely leveraged asset class.   

VIX Daily Chart Review: Another VIX Bear Trap?



The VIX crashed to one more new low to just under $10, before it soared up again.  I love to see these spikes to the downside, as we can look back in chart history where it has happened many times before.  Each down spike created a bottom, from which the VIX soared. 

This time the VIX down spike also closed the open gap, so one move solved two problems at once.  The lack of fear is unprecedented, so the majority really do not see any downside as of yesterday.  Of course that will change as bears attack when all the bulls are very complacent and worry free.  Bearish moves in stocks start after the bearish moves with the VIX have finished, so what I see sure helps to confirm the bearish outlook in stocks.  

VIX Index Review 2015-2017



This is the VIX index not the futures account, but in the end it should show the fear or lack of fear that investors see in the market place at any given time.  Since the 2015 top which I see as the Intermediate degree top, the maximum fear level could soar no longer as no fear can be maintained at that level.   That spike corresponds well with a stock market bottom or maximum fear after which the VIX started a long choppy move going down between the waves that constantly over lapped.

These waves can only work as diagonal waves, which produced another major low in late January 2017 at the $10.30 price level.  It will remain to be seen if this was a major low, but it fits well between two lines that show a bit of a wedge. 

How high can this VIX go?  This will all depend on how big of a bear market, they think is coming.  It would not surprise me to eventually see the VIX cross that $53 price level again, but as usual, it will never do this in one day. The first road block will be at the $21 price level, after which we can only go by one day at a time. 

In short, we want this VIX low to hold, and not to be exceeded again for some time, even with the open gap below. 

VIX, Setting The Mood For January 2017



Are you ready for what the markets may bring for the next 2-3 weeks? I’m sure most are not as 2016 ended on a bearish move. If that was the extend of the year end profit taking,  then I’m not impressed. Wall Street has been patting itself  on the back as the strategists have been right on the mark with their forecasts. They were always about 1% too low. This is all fine and dandy, but I’m sure they are not going to see what may happen after Trumps inauguration on Jan 20th, or even sooner. 

The VIX can give us a big clue as in the last days of 2016, the VIX created a fast spike to the upside, leaving an open gap, in the process. This may still get closed off and if the small expanded pattern is correct, the VIX still has a good chance of crashing to $11-$10.

A big wedge is also building so I sure do not expect the VIX to maintain this  permanent low, as complacency can’t last forever.  The commercials are still net long with the VIX, even though a massive amounts of contracts were shuffled.  That alone will eventually put a floor to the VIX decline.   If we follow my invisible top trend line, we would get about $21 as our first strong resistance price level. The VIX would eventually have to travel much higher, above the $50 price level. We have some time before that will happen, so be patient.

December 2016 produced an all time record amount of pages read in one month from all my blogs I have ever started. It took 8 months to achieve this, which was faster than I expected.  A total of about 148,000 pages read in 8 months, and setting all records with 25,500 pages read in one month. 

I thank all my readers for making this happen and wish them the best for 2017. 

RUT, Russell 2000 Index And A VIX Review.




We will look at the fear factor first, but think of the VIX more like the inverse to the SP500. Complacency charged back into stocks crashing the VIX in a dramatic fashion. If you want your fill of spikes, then this chart will give all the spikes and gaps that you can handle. In general, any move in the VIX you can consider a diagonal base wave structure, as it is impossible for complacency to push the VIX to zero.  We have a big base of just under $12, and now also have a Scalene triangle for a potential added punch yet to come.  Our last recent September bottom is about as far as I can push this wave, so I sure do not want to see the VIX below $12 again.  If the fear level is going to return and match a potential 4th wave bottom in stocks, then the VIX should get very close to the 2015 peak of about $53. All sorts of gaps may open on the way up so that will just add to the fact that the VIX will turn and head south one more time. 

The commercials removed 19,039 short contracts and at the same time added 3,279 long positions. This is what I would expect to happen and they did not disappoint me. It also produced about a 2:1 ratio of net long, to net short positions. The speculators behaved in a predictable fashion as they did the exact opposite as they panicked out of their VIX long positions,  and increased their short positions.  In the future after the VIX has spiked we could see the commercials in a very net short position so when that happens a bull market in stocks is sure to follow.  




The VIX crash above, is the inverse to the rally in the Russell 200 index. I believe a down move should happen, especially if the presidential debates bring on some more surprises. Any anticipated decline can go very deep, but it sure can land as a flat or even a potential running flat of some kind.  Since my entire 2009-2015 bull market is in a diagonal 5th wave, then we should expect another 3 wave bull move in the 5th wave up.

Since the RUT is building a big base of 4th wave bottoms, then this would be extremely hard for any future Cycle degree 4th wave to crack. We know it technically can’t go to zero. The 350 price level would be a 40%, Cycle degree 4th wave retracement from today’s highs. I use the general Fibonacci .382 or 40% as my 4th wave potential retracements, and it also depends if you base this on the gross or the net price of a move. 

I spent years calculating Fibonacci ratios and most of them are about as useless as a bathing suit is in the winter. Did any Fibonacci retracement number work at the 2009 bottom? Not that I can see as even the 40% number was trashed. 40% may work in a normal bull market but not when it goes wild, since it has done since the 2000 peak.  

Mini SP500 Intraday Bullish Action Review. Is The Bull Trap Ready To Snap?




This is the recent move in stocks which shows that the SP500 charged up past the September peak which is ideal. How it got there is more important than what the price is, as from my perspective, pattern trumps the price, any day of the week. If the wave count is too far off, then the majority of prices will get hit all the time. If you flip this chart upside down in your editor, it would be the same as the zigzag crash on the VIX chart, that I posted today. I will insert the VIX again below.

This has all the markings of a bearish rally at this time, so I can no longer be bullish in my outlook. The C wave was a perfect diagonal, and I would call it an ending diagonal as well. This shows that the entire “C” wave  is in a diagonal wave structure.

The 10th and the 21th of the month can cause reversals, as it has much to do with expiration dates of options and futures contracts. For this move to confirm that it is still in a real bearish trend, it would eventually have to take out the 2000 price level and more. The rest of the week should prove interesting, once it gets obvious that the markets are heading down again.

I can only give you commentary as I describe something that is happening on a rather small scale. If it happens on a smaller scale than it can happen at any degree level as well. Any wave count can still blow up and this case the SP500 would have to soar like an eagle. It’s the middle of the week as well, where markets can turn and go the opposite direction of what they did, in the beginning of the week. 



VIX Intraday Review: Extreme Fear Already?




For the little amount that stocks have declined, the VIX shows an over zealous response to this. Just imagine if we were declining down a big Primary degree “C” wave,  and what would happen to this VIX chart?  The VIX only hit about 50 even at the worst fears of the stock market bottom. 2008-2009.   Something has to give with this  VIX  spike, because fear like this cannot be maintained. At minimum we would need a correction soon, but if this entire move I have labeled, is an inverted move, then this VIX is open to crash followed by new record lows.