Tag Archives: Elliott Wave US Dollar

US Dollar Daily Chart, Bear Market Review

A bear market would not be the right description if the US dollar erases 8 years of upward progress. There is still a very high probability that the US dollar bull market was a big bear market rally itself, when we completed a “D” wave top in Primary degree.  I think I was too early with my Minute degree wave count, so I have started to extend our present pattern. The recent May crash could also be ending at another zigzag, so we may get a surprise fast move up. 

The US dollar is not going to jump back into a bull market for several more years, but we should see a rather large counter rally when we reach a potential “A” wave in Intermediate degree. This will correspond well with a potential strong top in gold.   The commercials are still net short, with the speculators net long. When all this reverses, then the US dollar would be in a position to produce a very strong rally. This should still be a long way off. 

Short term we may see a small rally, but longer term, my bearish outlook has not changed.  The stock mania regarding the US dollar has gone into hiding, but we could see it return with any good stock market rally. Many will be just short term moves.