Tag Archives: Elliott Wave Silver

Silver Daily Chart Crash Review: Last Chance

Silver is on its last chance to finish displaying a zigzag crash. Any new record low below $15.20 kills this wave count, so it will be critical for the next few weeks. There is a rally starting to happen, but the rally is questionable starting out. Either way we are heading for a third bottom, if silver breaks. Since the August 2016 peak, silver has been in a bearish phase that has very few sets of impulse waves in it.

To put it mildly, “Choppy as Hell”! ūüėĮ ¬†Even though silver seems like its going to fall into the abyss, that doesn’t mean it will. Who cares about silver¬†when Bitcoin¬†dominates¬†the news in the financial¬†world. The seasoned contrarians know better, that when the public hates an asset class,¬†then they should be buying at depressed prices.¬†

I lowered the wave degree back down by one degree, just in case we are in a diagonal 5th wave. I have done the same for gold as the 2011 top, may not be a Cycle degree top like I have been using. It could be a  diagonal wave 3, in Intermediate degree. Back in late 1999 they hated silver at that time as well, and look what happen to silver after that!  They hated gold even more back in those days, as anybody that had a warm body was selling gold and silver. 

Any “C5” wave bull market from a zigzag ¬†still amazes me because they can soar so disproportional¬†to the “A” wave.

For the rest of the year I will use this degree level in silver. I have already started the same idea with gold, which I will post this weekend.

Silver Crash Daily Chart Update

Silver only has pennies to go before it breaks my¬†bullish wave count. The next best wave pattern is that another zigzag is forming, but we still need a bit longer C5 wave length, to make a better fit. ¬†I sure don’t rule out any running type of a move as well, so in the short term silver can remain volatile.¬†

What must not happen¬†in silver, is that¬†the July 2017 bottom¬†also gets completely¬†retraced. If this happened then the $14.60 price level could get hit and the Intermediate degree “B” wave must also be moved. ¬†

Silver Intraday Update: Fighting For A Bottom?

At this time it seems like $16.85 produced some resistance,¬†pushing¬†silver back down and the possibilities¬†of a new bearish low. We have about 30 cents to play with before any bullish wave count I have will get trashed again. ¬†Since the early October spike all gaps have been closed off, and it seems like silver has broken away from the clutches of¬†those Algorithmic monsters running loose on the internet. Sure, it may be science fiction, but wave counting¬†would be pretty boring if we don’t have an imagination.¬†

We still have alternate wave counts that can surprise us, but at this time I like to think we have a potential reversal that is going to happen. On a silver daily chart this decline looks like a single spike to the downside, which fits well into a potential wave 2. Gold is also looking a bit like a straight down move, so in that respect  silver and gold seem to confirm each other in the short term. In the bigger scope of things silver is on a much different wave count than gold.

Silver turned in July of 2017, while gold turned in mid December 2016. This is just about a full 7 month difference between the two asset classes. This will throw wave counts for a loop if we ignore the real bottoms.  

Silver’s real low was way back in 1993, but yet the majority of wave analysts ignored this little fact and lumped it in with the gold bull market. So far $16.57 seems to be holding, but we need more evidence that a bigger rally is in progress.¬†

Silver Intraday Bearish Phase Update

The threat of this Silver correction lasting longer and going deeper exists. Even gold has the same pattern so it’s not just silver that is acting this way. Silver has diverged from gold in that they are many months apart¬†from their¬†respective bottoms this summer. This tells me that silver is in a big bearish rally that should still have lots of room¬†to move up. Last week the commercials with gold and silver added to their long¬†positions which is a bullish sign at least in the short term. ¬†With North Korea threatening¬†hydrogen bomb destruction, it is very understandable¬†that investors could seek safe-haven at any time.¬†

When I was a teen nuclear bombs were being set off around the world, spreading radiation into the ice sheets which also showed up in the wine being produced at that time.

In the mean time the US dollar commercial positions have switched, where they are now net long on the US dollar, and net short the Canadian dollar. 

The USD net long ratio is not that large and we need a bigger net long position before any real concerns are valid. 

I would love to see a zigzag or a flat correction to play out in silver as that will help to keep the bullish forecasts alive. Silver has come very close to my target price level, but the pattern has not. In my world pattern over rides price, just like it does when we look at any idealized chart.

Silver Intraday Crash Review: Has It Gone Far Enough?

This morning the intraday low touched $16.84 and has now turned up a bit. As much as I would like to see the end of this correction, we have to wait and see what the next rally in silver will bring us. Let’s say that silver starts a rally, but this rally is very choppy. It heads back up to $17.40 and at this point it could be another 4th wave rally and another 5th wave down would have to follow.¬†

That would be a potential “A” wave of a bigger and longer correction, and we would not even be a third of the way through this correction.¬†

Between gold and the silver daily charts they have diverged from each other, to where the corrections are no longer acting in sync. Gold hit its corrective bottom in December of 2016, while silver bottomed in July of 2017. This is about a 7 month difference between the two which is a big spread or divergence. 

Silvers correction fits better into a triangle at this time, which, if true gives us a clue to the end of a potential rally. This potential wave 1-2 correction may be too high of a degree, so we still have lots of room for silver to¬†move up. Many don’t see the difference between the two, but from my perspective, it stands out like a sore thumb which can’t be ignored. Until we get some really crazy expensive ratios, this bull market is still alive.

Silver Intraday Crash Review

Silver is still imploding, but this was not unexpected. Where it will stop, or how far through this correction, we are, is still a short term mystery. We do have a great previous low¬†between $16.85-$16.60 so Silver can come to a screeching¬†halt anytime. Silver is on a downside vertical move which can’t be maintained in the long run, so a sideways move should happen soon. ¬†Gold has also executed a move like silver, but needs a bit more length to make it look better.¬†

Maybe silver will give us a great looking H&S pattern before it starts on the next leg up. Some of the gold and silver stock ETFs did not react as strongly as silver and gold did, which is actually¬†a very bullish sign. At least there is a bit more action going on in the silver and gold markets, but in the SP500, it seems it’s stuck in place.¬†

Silver Bull Market Intraday Review

After the early August dip, silver recovered, and then roared back in a bullish move, now approaching the $18 price level.  In the big picture silver  is in a diagonal pattern which started way back in 1993. Trying to count silver as an impulse is futile as there are two different types of 5th waves. There is a good chance that another smaller version of a diagonal is forming and the chances for a correction are starting to increase.  Sure it might be still too early but any correction could be fast, sharp and painless. Only the silver bulls will feel the pain, while the contrarians see it as a buying opportunity.

Silver had 3 major dips in August and the dip on the 16th of August would be one of the favorite support areas. ($16.80) I’m sure silver will keep us guessing in the short term, but in the longer scheme of things a decline in the silver price is not the end to the silver bull market. I show we could be getting close to a potential wave 1 in Minute degree but can still be a bit early. ¬†As long as we get a choppy decline the chances are good, that it will be just a correction. ¬†

Most of my updates will be short this week as I still have chart issues that is taking up much of my time.

Silver Intraday Update! Time For A correction?

From the early August dip, silver has recovered nicely and now has soared to another higher high. This is starting to look like a mini bull trap with a potential finishing 5th wave.  I shifted the degree level by one degree, so we get to start the same degree over again. 

We could just see a very short correction before silver charges up again, but that could be wishful thinking at this time. Gold has made the same basic move, so for this short period of time, gold and silver are in sync. They must have searched for a better drummer that they can both march to.  

Any move to the $16 price level would not surprise me, but it will not happen overnight.I better not say “overnight” too many times, as then the odds increase that it will crash in a flash crash. With algorithms¬†running amok you never know what will happen, so it is always best to keep our options open.

Silver Intraday Correction Update

From a potential “B” wave bottom in Minor degree, silver surged for most of July. Since then silver has started a correction, which could be finished. ¬†The correction may not be finished just yet, so another plunge below the bottom trend line may still happen.

The correction could be a 4th wave, so another leg up should happen. After the anticipated leg up has completed, then we should be in a new Minute degree wave 1.

As ugly of a correction it was, ¬†silver’s bottom can only fit into a triangle. Any triangle in the “B” wave position is a stark warning that there is one more “Thrust” coming, and once this trust has completed it would also be the end of the bigger bullish phase. ¬† There still is lots of time before we even get close, as it may take until mid or late 2018 before the big bullish phase in silver is done.

If we go back 100 years to late 1918 we know silver peaked, and then imploded into a 13 year bear market, ending around 1932.  Even Steven Jon Kaplan figures the gold/silver bullish phase could last well into 2018, and he is much smarter than me and can read markets far better than any Elliott Wave specialist ever will.

Most of all the other commodities and stock markets also bottomed in 1932, so this time period has significance from my perspective.

I visited my contrarian friend yesterday who also manages other peoples money, and there is no panic in trying to get out of any silver related assets.

Silver Daily Chart Update

With this daily futures cash chart, we see that we have one ugly of a bearish decline since that mid 2016 peak.  Every bullish wave count I have tried since the January 2017 bottom has failed.  One of the wave counts I can have is a potential triangle decline,  which bottomed in early July 2017. 

If this is true, then there can be no more new lows, and silver has to keep on charging up, passing all the peaks of the silver bearish phase. The real horror  wave count would be that the top in April of $18.60 was the top of another zigzag, which would send silver below the 2016 lows.

The triangle wave count would send a clear signal that any new record highs would also be the last high, before another major crash would then follow. Triangles have a certain finality built in, in that one more thrust can happen, but after the “thrust” ¬†has¬†completed, the shit will hit the fan one more time.¬†

Any zigzag declining scenario, could be short lived, but then a new bullish phase will start again. Silver has always walked to a different drummer from gold, as since the real bottom in 1993, silver has seen nothing but diagonal wave structures. Counting sliver from this 1993 bottom as impulse waves is futile and just plain wrong, but it seems wave analysts just love to make 5 wave impulse counts everywhere they go. The EWP has two types of 5 wave sequences, but the majority lump them all into impulse waves. 

Buying physical silver bullion is always a good idea when silver is pointing down, but not when it is pointing up. Long term buying at lows, helps make the cost averaging work, but buying at an emotional high does the exact opposite. I use a small amount of silver bars like a savings account. 

At this time SIL the silver miners ETF has held up rather well, and has been on a bit of a rally lately. 

Silver Intraday False Spike Commentary

I have about 5 different settings I can use for displaying the “type” of the chart. The spike you see above shows up in bar¬†type very¬†well, and when we switch to candlestick the same spike appears. ¬†I think these spikes are high speed algorithm computer generated. In a blink of an eye this spike hits all the sell stops sitting below any price level. I call it the “stop sweeper” as it scoops up your¬†stops, takes your money and takes you out of your bullish position. ¬†

Also at the top we have a very tight range of price moves that I figure spanned a bit more than about  20 cents.  It looks like a miniature bar code.  

 

When I switch to candlestick at this scale, the spike is also very visible and it shows up in green while the other declines show up in red. Gee, sure looks like the algorithms are color blind. 

All this is fine and dandy, but once we switch to line type, in the chart setting, this spike disappears like it never happened. 


Here is the same chart, but switched to line type, and the spike crash is gone. With the price crash gone, our wave count remains bullish.  These big false spikes happen, and they can happen when the trading volume is very thin.  

Silver Daily Chart Bearish Review

The silver market has trashed all the easy short term bullish wave counts and this morning is at another spike and record low.   Silver has been walking to a different drummer. A new  low in silver has just hit the $15.20 price, and now has started to advance.  From the peak silver has also retraced a bit more than a net 61%, so if a rally is going to start, now would be the time.

Any other type of a move would put the silver bear market in a zigzag decline. We would still need a 4th wave rally now, then followed by another decline to new record lows.  Since the entire bearish phase is extremely choppy, then the decline should  eventually get completely retraced. 

Silver Daily Chart Review: Up And Away?

Silver started to bottom yesterday and now has soared this morning. This could be the start of the next leg up from a pretty steep, and straight decline.  Another very steep and much longer decline ended in early May which could all work as wave two corrective declines.  

Last month I showed a potential wave 1-2 for the 2016 decline, but there is too high of a chance that the 2016 top was an “A” wave top in Minor degree. ¬†The entire silver bull market going way back to the 1993 bottom can only fit into a diagonal¬†which are zigzags connected together, producing the wild spikes and overlapping patterns, that make up the silver market. We have to search far and wide to see some clean impulse waves, and even then they are small degree moves.¬†

In silver, I have to keep wave positions on two separate¬†patterns, and the above pattern has an “A” wave top but in Minor degree. ¬†It has to be in Minor degree if the 4th wave bottom is in Intermediate degree. Silver has done this many times in the past, so it will be interesting to see if silver will hold this pattern on a 5th wave.

A few other asset classes also could work as a 5th wave zigzag, so silver is not the only one. ¬†In the long run an “ABC” zigzag bull market is very much the same as a 1-2-3 impulse wave count. ¬†Until wave 3 materializes, we can work both patterns. ¬†When this does happen, other indicators should also start to show up, so it is not just one thing we have to look for when the next major peak hits¬†again.¬†

Even now silver could roar up as another zigzag to a wave one as well, which would make the present wave 1 peak a bit too early.

I’m sure you have heard of $200 silver forecasts, but since 1980 silver couldn’t even manage to hit $50 never mind $200. ¬†If we are really lucky maybe silver will give us another triple top, around the $49 price level, but until that actually happens, any price forecasts are just mythical numbers thrown out to the public based on fundamental analysts. ¬†

Longer term I’m bullish on silver, and now we need more evidence¬†to keep the silver bull market alive and kicking. ¬†¬†

Silver Weekly Chart, Elliott Wave Count Review

It would be fantastic if commodities¬†moved just like stocks do, but the sad fact is that they don’t.¬† Fear dominates everything in commodities, and the massive leverage all commodities¬†have is one of the main drivers of this fear.¬† This fear¬†creates the wild spikes that flip flop around, like a fish out of water. ¬†

I have been reviewing my larger degree wave counts, as Cycle degree wave 3 for 2011 may have been too aggressive, and therefore too early with the Cycle degree top. The entire silver bull market, which started in 1993, is one of the best examples of a diagonal run that you can find at this time, which keeps any idealized 5 wave impulse on the endangered species list. 

2016 is now a potential diagonal 4th wave in Intermediate degree, and technically we should get another zigzag to new record highs. This is also when a double top could form with only marginal new highs. That scenario would still be far away, so we do have time before we need to make a major decision.   

With silver it will be a real challenge, ¬†as I don’t think I can switch to 5 diagonal waves up in Minor degree at this time. Switching to a wave count that¬†may be marginal, will help to eliminate it, as any far off wave count will surely¬†fail.

These changes do not necessarily distort any long term bullish view I already have, which is a good thing.  Knocking a Cycle degree wave 3 top down to an Intermediate degree wave 3,  is a change of 2 degree levels.

The mid 2016 peak I show as a wave one in Minute degree, but I may have to change that to a Minor degree. Any time we put a wave count up, it is prone to fail sooner or later, but we have to run them until they no longer make sense. 

I may change gold and oil as well, as all my Cycle degree wave 3 positions regarding commodities, need reviewing. 

Silver Bull Market Intraday Update

I think we had a major bottom on May 9th after which it started another run heading north. Well, not exactly true north, but north east. This has a long way to go and we are not even at any wave one in Minute degree, as we have to build up to it. The first major hurdle that silver has to go above is the wave 1 top at about the $18.70 price level.

I’m sure that would produce some resistance, but if this bullish phase is as strong as I suspect, it should eventually break out¬†and travel much further. ¬†My wave degree will need some adjustment, but that is not a big deal. Eventually we have to review the daily charts to make sure everything still fits together on the bigger scale.

One thing about intraday scale charts is that they disappear, so we can never go back to recount the intraday scale a few years down the road. ¬†I will not commit any logic that we may be thinking that silver is heading to the moon or some other ridiculous $200 price forecast, as this may all be part of a big “D” wave rally. ¬†We have been in the “C” wave bullish phase for months already, and that should continue for the rest of this year.

Silver Intraday Update: Just A Correction

Silver has started a decline which should be part of a correction as we have some very choppy and overlapping waves. This morning silver also made a nice spike to the downside which at many times can be a  reversal pattern. Tomorrow should tell us more if our present  low holds as a wave 2.   If I set this wave 1 top one higher degree, then silver would have to show some very aggressive bullish moves to make it to a potential wave 3 in Minor degree. 

In the end it should all take us to the same new highs and rise well above that mid 2016 peak. ¬†We need to fill out wave 3-4-5 in Minuette degree, before we hit wave 1 in Minute degree. ¬† This is always easier said than done, but this “C” wave bull market is still alive at this point.¬†

Has Silver Crashed Far Enough?

Silver has been crashing, which only contained very small counter rallies. When we look at it from a daily and weekly¬†perspective, ¬†we see it as a pretty straight¬†down pattern. In this case I’m using a Minor degree wave 2 bottom, which would contain 6 degree levels. Even a wave like this would still have many extensions, that could come out of hiding when it is time to do so. ¬†This may not be the time, as we could get a counter rally that no short trader account can withstand the drawdown.¬†

The “Buy” orders are all bunched up above silver’s present price level,¬†and they can get triggered with computer trading and those pesky critters called Algorithms. ¬†

I have a pretty wild wave count at this time, and it may not last¬†a day, but I have to use it, to help eliminate¬†if it’s wrong. ¬† I may have to knock down the degree level, but for now the degree level is not a concern. ¬† Silver could be off, ¬†on a very strong bullish phase, and it will do everything in its power, to kick anyone off, that thinks they are getting a free ride.

This is also a good example, what silver can do with a decline when it wants to. ¬†Sure, there can be a bit more downside, but I’m anticipating a reversal, as this has the markings of a bear trap. ¬† Silver has a little more than $1.00 of downside room left, before the last support level is exceeded. Just like the horse races, it’s down to the wire! ¬†

Silver Weekly Chart, 2011-2017 Cycle Degree Review

 

Silver topped out on April, 25, 2011 at the $49.75  Price level. The chances that this was the peak of a diagonal 5th wave terminating at a potential Cycle degree wave III as well.  This wave III in Cycle degree barley exceeded the January 1980 peak of $48.

What followed the 2011 peak sure follows what looks like a 5 wave decline, but¬†so many waves overlap that¬†it only makes sense when I count it as a diagonal set, ¬†of 5¬†waves down. This all suggests that a Cycle degree zigzag may be in progress and that we eventually will finish off¬†with a “B” wave top in Primary degree.

In a potential big zigzag the last thing I would want to see is that the entire “B” wave¬†rally also ends up with a zigzag. ¬†Sure, we started what looks like a zigzag, but that could be just the leading zigzag to a flat. 3-3-5. ¬†This flat, should not take silver to any new record highs as zigzags can’t exceed the start of wave “A”.

If the 2011-2016 decline was a single completed 3 wave zigzag, then there would be no technical issues that would stop the ¬†“B” wave from traveling to new record highs, by¬†40% (.382). EWI has also mentioned that in a zigzag the “A” waves tends to be steeper than the “C” wave. I believe¬†alternation can switch this all around, when the “C” wave may end up being steeper.

EWI still believes a depression is coming this time, but I disagree as many of  the major depressions in the past came from wave 2 bases.  I will talk more about this when I review the last 100 years in the DJIA wave pattern.

I track the Gold/Sil ratio as that gives us a clue when Silver stocks become expensive to gold. At present we are sitting at a Gold/Sil ratio of 35.70:1 which is not all that bad at this time.  Now if we hit 20:1 then this silver market could be in big trouble.

Last weeks Market Vane Consensus report showed a 24 month high of 53%, which was matched a few days last week.  This does not suggest any extreme bullish mood regarding silver.  I see this as many seats still left, on this silver bull stagecoach.

The font settings in my editor,  is not allowing to lock in changes, as it seems to always want to revert back to Georgia. I may have to post in Georgia and a 16 font size at this time. 

Silver Daily Chart, Bullish Phase Review

 

I have complained many times that silver does not confirm many of the moves that gold makes. Trying to force the same wave count onto silver,¬†or trying to turn its bull market into impulse waves, is a futile effort. For years that is exactly what I was doing,¬†until I realized that the entire silver wave structure, is nothing but a crazy diagonal. ¬†Silver also ended its bullish phase in 2011, ¬†after which it started a decline. Sure, ¬†parts of the silver bear market can be a high grade impulse, but in the end this also falls apart. ¬†A double zigzag could actually be part of a bigger triangle, which ended on a Primary degree “C” wave in late 2016.¬†

What followed this 2016 bottom, was another very wild ride up. Right from the bottom, any perfect impulse wave structure was trashed rather quickly.  Most of the time this is a warning, that any impending rally would be a potential bear market rally, but how big or how long of a bear market rally,  was debatable. 

Still, this 2016 bottom was so bearish, and silver related stocks were so cheap, that a¬†bull market was bound to happen. ¬†This August 2016 top ended with about a $7 net move, after which it started another grinding decline. ¬†For now at least, silver can be part of a “D” wave bull market, which has lots of room to move to the upside. We already have been in the “C” wave part of this bullish phase, and we need 5 waves up in Minor degree to help confirm it.

In the last days of February 2017 silver peaked and started what looks like a straight move down. Second wave corrections can do this, especially in commodities so I see nothing strange about this move. If and when the 4th wave correction comes, this is when we can get a complex pattern that will keep us scratching our heads for many months,  as the 4th wave correction plays out.  Sure, I can be very wrong, but bullish phases are not that easy to kill. They swing from one extreme and then over to the other extreme, which we can measure with Gold/Sil ratios, and other gold stock ratio calculations as well. None of these contrarian indicators are anywhere near extremes, so this bullish phase is alive and well from my perspective.  

Last week only had 50% bulls present, so that alone tells us that many silver bulls are still out there to come in. Silver had a 24 month low of 16% bulls which in this case was another extreme. Any extreme in  the 80% or higher range,  will start to sound off alarms as this silver market would be starting to get overbought. 

This could happen at a “D” wave top, and we know that “D” waves are all bull traps. The majority cannot tell the difference between a real bull market and a big bear market rally, but the wave analysts eventually have to figure it out. ¬†When they do figure it out that silver is in a bull market, then chances are good that the silver bull market is finished!¬†

First waves and “D” waves can have very little differences in mood, ¬†and about the only way to tell the difference is by “pattern”. ¬†Price never makes a wave count, as the little blue book clearly shows us. (EWP)¬†

The silver market imploded in 2011 from a giant, “Stock Mania” ¬†bull attack, ¬†not from some government conspiracy¬†that may or may not have been¬†lurking, in the silver market. ¬†This will happen time and time again,¬†as mainstream stocks will always compete with gold and silver. ¬†

In the long term, silver may hit the $27-$30 price range, after which we can run into some very strong resistance.