Tag Archives: Elliott Wave Mini SP500

E-Mini SP500: Impending Rally Update?

Talk about a great downside breakout, but the angle of this present decline has been very steep.  Some counter rally is due, which could trigger all the “Buy” stops.   Usually the spikes get retraced, if a small 5th wave move has just completed. A fast move back up to the 2720 price level at the 4th wave peak, could also happen.  If this potential wave 2 rally happens, then we need wave 3-4-5 to play out.

That might get us to wave 1 in Minute degree. I will keep some of these updates rather short as when markets change directions, violence can ensue.

The US dollar would also see a rally, if stocks suddenly reversed on some “good”news. If any so called “good” news comes out and stocks hardly move, then any rally will be a fake and then die just as fast. Continuously getting lower highs, is just a bull market in reverse, at least for some of the 5 wave sequences.

Mini SP500: Having A Bad Hair Day!

For a brief time investors were indifferent to any rate increase, but they were already bearish well before the announcement on Wednesday. We also have a great looking H&S top which can give us a very ominous sign, that can also work as a brick wall. At very tops in bull markets H&S are not bullish indicators like they were during most of the 2009-2018 bull market. In a bull market the right shoulder would constantly break higher!

For the first part the February bottom must get completely retraced to kill the idea that this rally is not part of the bull market. It is the Mini DJIA that has a different count, but it will also do what all the other indices will do, and that is to head south!  What that means is that the SP500 can bottom a bit later than what the DJIA might do. This all could smooth out as any trend gets more established.

The love affair for big tech stocks is starting to wane, being anti Facebook is going to be the thing to do as privacy issues are a concern. Investors are finding out how those “FANG” stocks can get clawed to death by the market bears.

Mini Sp500 Intraday Update

Nothing has changed radically in the last few days as the markets have not made a convincing move just yet. Any Fed announcement could still send the markets soaring. Any diagonal 4th wave bottom could still be developing.  We have a H&S top which does not inspire me to keep a very bullish outlook, but hopefully by the end of the week this mediocre movie will show its true colors.   Many analysts are calling for a correction with many different price projections being forecast.

My question is, “How Big Of A Correction”?  We have hundreds and even thousands of corrections in a bull market so knowing what degree of correction is critical. I’m looking for a Cycle degree correction, which could eventually take the SP500 back down to the 800 price level.  When the SP500 ever gets there, I’m sure all the experts will no longer call it a “correction”, but they will call it a full blown “bear market”.

We can have crashes without bear markets just like the 1987 crash. In 1930 the markets started a bear market that took two years to bottom so any comparable move could also take just a few years.  There is no logic to time when using degree levels as we had a Primary degree correction that took 4 years and a Supercycle correction that only took 3 years! All  my stock market wave counts are based on finding the 5 waves in Cycle degree because without them, we have no hope of of moving into the world of SC degree wave counting.  I spent years, counting the markets in SC degree, but when we were all missing huge bull markets then this raised some serious questions.

I switched to Cycle degree counting in 2013 and I have not found any need to switch again. We can dick around with wave position gymnastics  at the smallest degree level, but they mean nothing if we keep missing bull markets.

This market has to produce lower highs, and lower lows with all rallies having a limited life span. This is how conventional wisdom is called a bear market.


My updates are going to be sporadic this week as I have many other things that need my attention, but I will update when I can.

Mini SP500 Intraday Update: Tired Of Playing the Nasdaq Game?

These futures contracts are far more violent than the SP500 index  charts that I have posted. It’s like they come from two different planets. In February we have two major bottoms, but when we switch to line type settings,  that wave 1 in Minor degree is much longer.

What must be obvious is that we have another lower high since the January peak and if we draw a line across this first lower high, we get a H&S pattern rolling over as well. Looking for lower highs too early in the game doesn’t always work, especially when we are dealing with a 4th wave.

As I post the markets are still heading down so my wave counts may have a longer life span at this time.

The Gold/SP500 ratio hit 2.0:1 which means it takes two gold ounces to buy one unit of the Mini Sp500.  I have many readings at this ratio, which tells me the markets are smashing up against a ratio brick wall. A cheap ratio would get closer to .75:1, so this ratio would have a long way to compress before we even get close when this market becomes oversold again.

I may switch to any ESY00 or even the SPY00 charts  more often to get a different perspective.

Mini SP500 Intraday Bullish Phase Review

Those investors that have no clue that bearish rallies can soar for years and travel much further than even a 61% move will make, will always get fooled when jumping on every rally with the fear of missing out.

The markets are still in nosebleed territory, as they are having difficulty in deciphering this “trade war” that we keep hearing about. The mass media just loves the idea of a trade war, and you can tune into any financial blog and chances are good they will be talking about the impending trade war.  A bear market constantly needs lower highs to develop, which any 5 wave decline will produce.

Big “B” wave rallies will be harder to accept as even they could rally 80% or more.  Markets will always try and fool the majority, and when they go down, they blame it on manipulation. It seems that everyone has forgotten the 2007-2008 market crash, or they think  the markets should never go down. I feel very confident in saying, that in the future we will see many more bear markets yet.

Many investors think that markets should never go down, so when they do go down, they will blame the decline on something else. God help us if we have such stupid investors out there, that actually think that markets never go down. Buying high, betting on that it goes much higher will always get you into a bull trap sooner or later.  There are still too many stock bulls around that are foaming at the mouth, just waiting for this crazy melt-up that they feel will surely come.

This vertical melt-up has already happened, which started in early 2016 from the 1800 price level. At a bare minimum the SP500 bear market should completely retrace that 1800 target. This still amounts to a mere bee sting in a Cycle degree world.  We can have crashes without bear markets with the 1987 crash, being a prime example. That crash was over in a few short months, with no real bear market that followed.

Now the 1929-1932 decline had a crash followed by a 2 year bear market and that market crash was also triggered by a trade war.

If the markets are over on the bearish side, then lower lows will be the trend and the impending 1800 price level will never hold. Even the SP500 1000 price level will get crushed in the next few years,. Investors are going to find out the hard way how investing for the long term works with this impending bear market.

I show a “B” wave top and I’m using it to either confirm or trash a big Cycle degree zigzag. I’m very confident at this time that we are not going to get a Cycle degree triangle, as solar cycle #25 will kill that idea pretty quick. I’m sure that betting against the sun in 2020, will keep investors in a mega bear trap, as the markets start to soar for a 500% gain.

Mini SP500 Intraday Bullish Phase Update

Is the stock rally running out of steam or is it going to soar to the moon with another super leg up?  Many experts say that this is just a healthy 10% correct and that this bull market will return and soar once again.

Blame Ontario Minimum Wage Hike for Canada Job Plunge. Or Not. – Bloomberg

The experts see no recession on the horizon in the US markets, but in Ontario, where they voted themselves a minimum pay increase  massive amounts of layoffs were announced. I doubt it very much that the USA will skirt a recession while Canadian fundamentals implode.

Fundamentals are lagging indicators, not leading indicators. It took 9 years for the fundamentals to change from horrible in late 2008 to great in early 2018. When the markets start to turn down again, you can bet that the experts will come up with all sorts of fundamental reasons why the markets are going down. The second deep plunge in February sure looks like a nice declining impulse, but in reality it counts out much better as a diagonal making it a potential 5th wave.

Today is also a new moon date, which in the past has produce some dramatic or very energetic reversals.  The February double bottom will never hold if the “Dip” so far, is actually just the start of the  “Big Dip” in Cycle degree.  The blame game will continue as they always need a scapegoat to blame stock market losses on. It’s never about stupid investors or stupid money managers that always get into a trap, but they will blame computer trading as part of the reason. The fact is behind every computer trade is a human with an itchy finger sending Algorithms crazy.

Below todays present prices, the protective “Sell stops” are piling up, and we don’t need any fancy computer to figure that out. Traders have been brainwashed to move protective stops up, which will easily get triggered once the “Big Dip” resumes. “Big Dip” I mean a Cycle degree 4th wave dip, not some pussy Minor degree correction that we are presently in.

They had a “Big Dip” from 1929 to 1932 as well, which was a Supercycle degree dip. That only took 3 years to play out. I’m sure any Cycle degree “dip” will not take any longer.  In the long run solar cycle #25 will put a screeching halt to any bearish wave counts or bearish fundamentals that we can dream up.  Solar Cycle #24 also destroyed all the bears by early 2009, so never underestimate the power of the sun on human affairs on earth.

The Gold/SP500 ratio has been hitting 2:1 on the expensive side from a (.75:1) ratio on the cheap side.  When the bearish mood returns, then this 2:1 ratio will never be exceeded for many years.

Sp500 Intraday Rally Running Out Of Steam?

The SP500 created a double bottom in February before it rose in a violent fashion ending on the upside last week. At this time I’m going to count this as a 1-2 and then another 1-2 count, which would mean a longer wave 3 count. All we need is one more 1-2 wave structure to complete, then we would certainly be getting a long wave 3. It can all fall apart very quickly, but the main idea is to eliminate wave counts as soon as possible.

This great looking double bottom should not hold if we are over into the big bear market side already. ( The Big Dip) Fundamentals have not really changed, but that has always been the case as fundamentals are lagging indicators, not leading indicators. It took well over 8 years for those horrible fundamentals in 2009 to change to better fundamentals by 2018. At the extremes, fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things, just like they did in 1987, 2000, 2007 and now in early 2018.  Rate increases might be enough bad fundamentals to push this market down, but other fundamental reasons may appear at anytime.

EWI is also bragging that they they have hit the top, which they seemed to be pretty good at doing. Creating a great short trade setup can only benefit a very small percentage of traders, but they seemed to miss more bull markets than we can shake a stick at. Missing any major bull market is unacceptable as the older we get, the fewer bull markets we can afford to miss.

Steven Jon Kaplan started to call for a bull market back in late 2008 already, as the VIX peaked and insider buying reports were flooding the mainstream news sites.   This is when the stock bulls should have been screaming, “buy”,  but sadly enough all the wave analysts were bearish just like the majority were.

I’m sure this same setup will happen again and all the wave followers will miss another 8 year bull market. From 2009 to January 2018 the SP500 gained about 430%, which was only an Intermediate degree 5 wave run. The next bull market will be a 5 wave run in Primary degree, which I’m sure will give participants, 500% or more gains, in another 8 year bull market.

All the fancy wave counting in the world is pretty useless if we keep missing bull markets. We are still some time away from a real, meaningful bottom as a simple 10% correction will not do it. Even a 50% correction will not do it, as that would only suggest a move back to the average.

When solar cycle #25 arrives, then you no longer should be in any  bearish positions, as our sun makes or breaks all bull and bear market cycles.  The sun overrides the power of the wave counts at anytime, and it will be no different when solar cycle #25 starts.

Mini SP500 Rally Update

A very strong counter rally is now in force, but if the bigger bearish picture is in effect, then this rally will run out of steam, by the end of this week. This market crash should not be a surprise to any serious market watcher as it seems to happen at every major top in January.

Investors don’t care about buying low and selling high, so they will always get themselves into a bull trap and get wiped out in the process.  The constant brainwashing about staying in the markets for the long term didn’t help in 1929 nor in 2007. No trend lasts forever as all trends eventually come to an end, especially in the general stock markets.

Insiders left this market a long time ago, and there are no real important insider buying announcements that have come out recently.

In futures it’s worse where trends can change direction very violently, with no too little warning. Leverage which produces fear, is the main driver of prices in the futures markets.

The markets are still soaring as I post, so at worst this bullish run could extend into next week.

Mini SP500 Decline Update

So far the 5 markets I cover all have started to turn lower. I won’t call it a crash as there is a certain amount of order to this decline. My top is a Cycle degree top so I need a 3 wave type correction in Primary degree to complete a Cycle degree correction.  I like to be very specific in the pattern and degree that we are supposed to get, so when we are wrong it can give us an early clue as well. Sure the intraday waves are about as wild a wooly as we can get, which always need adjusting as the counter rallies get bigger and bigger.

SP500 Intraday Record High Bull Trap Update

Late last night the SP500 started to top out after achieving another record high at 2878. Every top could be the last top, but we never have insurances of that until it happens.  When the new trend slices through my bottom trend line by a wide margin, then we may have a correction bigger than what the majority expect. A deep dip past the 2650 price level would be a big help in locking in the new record high. Until that happens, we can always get a fast moving counter rally that would trash any bearish mood rather quickly.

What will happen is that this entire bull market that started in early 2009 will end, followed by a Cycle degree 4th wave bear market.

I have looked at 3-5 expert wave counts recently and they are about as bullish as they can make them. Building a wave count that is in sympathy with the crowd will never work. The markets will always do the opposite of what the herd thinks it’s supposed to do.  Since 2000 every major peak was followed by a crash.

It seems that the higher this market is going the higher degree levels they will start to make. This is the furthest from reality in what happens in extensions, as it is the smaller degree levels that come out from years of hiding. Look what happened after the 1987 stock market crash, which produced a Minor degree 5th wave extension, lasting 13 years. All the wave counting in the world will not help if  we are not prepared for what’s to come. It will be worse when this market does hit the next major bottom, because I’m sure wave analysts will be calling for the SP500 to fall to 500 or some other ridiculous number like SP500 300. Investors will be ill prepared if the SP500 stops at 700 or 750 and then soars to 3400 by 2029.

Contrarians do a far better job in reading the markets than any wave analysts can, so if they have tricks of the trade, then I want to use them as well. In late 2008 Steven Jon Kaplan was forecasting the biggest bull market since the depression, yet expert wave analysts were calling for a wave 1 in Primary degree at that time. A wave 1 bottom in Primary degree is about as bearish as a wave count, that we can ever have, so when it turned, wave followers were left holding a bag of wooden nickels. Nothing has changed as they are still pushing the unconfirmed SC and GSC degree wave counts. Make a few cosmetic changes, and they come up with a “New and Improved” wave count.  Sorry folks, but cosmetic wave counting never works because once it fails, we have to do it all over again, starting with the 1929 peak.

Sure, I practice some “Cosmetic wave counting”, at the intraday level, but for the last 5 years I have not had to change any of the three tops starting with 2000!

Mini SP500 Update Another Record To Break

Yesterday the SP500 pushed to another record high at 2855. That record high was followed by another wild downward move, that can be another zigzag. I extended the wave count a bit more, which may only take a few hours before the bottom trend line gets hit again. I want the SP500 to slice through the bottom trend line with conviction, as a bigger correction is long overdue. The bullish phase from January the 16th sure is not an impulse, but it fits a diagonal pattern much better.

The good thing is that we don’t have a double top situation as the secondary peak is lower. Not sorting out the last wave from the bull market and the first wave of a bear market makes any declining wave count very difficult to count out effectively. Eventually the fog will lift even if it’s only for a short period of time.

February is when the new FED is sworn in,  who can have an unknown impact on the markets. It seems this market is in a generational trend with the analysts painting us a perfect picture of the future.

Analysts are constantly directing your thinking, (brainwashing technique) to higher and higher market forecasts. Do you feel safe investing with the herd?  Market participants only care about one thing and that is that the bull market continues. When the markets turn south, they can panic as a rush to the exits can happen.

Nothing has changed for the impending bear market, even when the greater fools are jumping in. The last players in this market are always the weakest, so it will take very little to scare them right back out again.

The intense media attention to this bull market works like a big speaker horn. When that happens, I always ask myself, “Who’s left to come in”?  When a market is priced for perfection, then this market has no choice but to eventually turn into a big bear market, big enough to catch the majority of participants by surprise. We have 15 sets of degree levels all in order from the largest down to the smallest, so guessing at what the big degree level is, is not an option.

I like to be very specific which largest degree level  I’m using, so it is easier to track down any mistakes as soon as possible. I believe a Cycle degree 4th wave bear market is still coming, so preservation of capital is extremely important. Sure we can play this cat and mouse game as any correction may not last very long.

We are coming up to months end, when things have a nasty habit of making surprise reversals. To give this market some credit, it seems to keep going and going and going, just like the Energizer Bunny.

Even though the markets keep breaking higher I will not abandon my Cycle degree top, as extensions are part of the landscape and as wave analysts we have to deal with it. I will remain bearish until such a time this market shows us what it wants to do. I will say one thing and that is at a bare minimum the SP500 has to hit the 1800 price level, which can give us a support  but only for a short while.

SP500 Intraday Record High Update

All the 5 indices I cover, have been pushing to new record highs and has even formed a very small double top. In this market that little double top has no real importance as it can get exceeded by the time I finish posting.   There is no fundamental logic to all of this even when the government shuts down. The threat of a government shutdown has been going on for decades, and I have ignored all of them most of the time. It seems like the government is just showboating more than any real attempt to balance the books.

It is the changing of the FED that is more important, Trump Announces Jerome Powell as New Fed Chairman – The New York Times. I will keep working the Decenber move as a 4th wave, but wave 3-4 can be an “AB” move as well. At this stage of the game anything can happen. After 2 years with this 5th wave extension,  there have only been very small corrections, which cannot be maintained.  We need a big correction, and falling back to the December sideways move is the bare minimum we would need, if another super leg up were still to happen. In the long run the SP500 will crash or turn into a big bear market. The higher these markets go the bigger and deeper these markets will head down to.

Every contrarian, I respect knows what’s coming as they track fund flows and insider buying and selling. Some say not to worry about insider selling as they are just taking profits. What a pile of crap this logic is, as insiders don’t do the same thing as the public does. They buy and sell their own stocks because they understand the big picture of the business cycle very well.

Sure, this could go on an on for some time yet, but markets have a nasty habit of surprising as many participants as it can. Since 2000 we’ve had two major bear markets or crashes, and a third is on its way, yet the majority of participants are not any smarter. The fourth big peak may not happen until 2029 and the 5th one  could take until 2129.

Once the race for the lifeboats starts, there will be a panic situation when they realize there are not enough lifeboats available to get everybody out. They key is capital preservation and the majority has never been good at doing that.  Only the majority is dumb enough to invest in an extreme top, when the probabilities of a crash are more likely to happen.

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update

The SP500 is now developing a small degree double top which I can fit into a diagonal 5th wave.  Even now another spike to the upside can still happen.  A correction is coming and it will be bigger than the majority are expecting.  The “Market Gremlin” will raise a shit storm in the next few years as a financial earthquake is coming.  All those pretty “Green”  numbers in a bull market,  turn to “Red” in a bear market.  If you think that a few $300-$400 billion going up in smoke in the Cryptos is a big deal then, you haven’t seen nothing yet as $20-$30 trillion will go up in smoke once the markets hit the “Real” bottom.

Just for starters the entire 2018 rally has to get retraced, followed by retracing the entire Trump rally as well. Two years worth of gains will disappear in a blink of an eye, so don’t fall asleep being complacent with the majority. Investing with the majority will get you the same results as the majority get when the “Big Bear”comes a knocking. The real bears are not going to be so nice, as there will be no knock as they will just smash through the front door.

In this world you are a contrarian or you become the victim, so you do have a choice.

SP500 Intraday Record High Update

Yesterday the markets suffered a min type of a crash. It is also a move I like to see coming off another major peak. Due to its sharp decline, there is still the potential left for the markets to charge higher.  All of the January 2018 rally would have to get completely retraced just for openers,  followed by  retracing the entire December bull market as well.  We have to get a decline big enough for the markets to no longer have the time to create a new 2018 record high.

So far we topped off at the 2808 price peak and remains the number to beat in the near term future.

The Gold/SP500 ratio is well into the extreme side, sitting a bit over 2:1 this morning.

Mini SP500 New World Records!

I normally take a break on any US or Canadian holiday, but occasionally I will break that rule. Soon we will be starting in the third year of a single 5th wave in Intermediate degree. At this time the markets show no signs that they want to slow down, but reversals can happen coming as a complete surprise to the majority.

We can’t have our noses stuck in the intraday level as we always have to look at daily and weekly charts on a regular basis. At the monthly chart scale we are dealing with a vertical move, where we can barely see any of the corrections above. On faster moves we can’t see any corrections on the bigger scale. Extensions happen all the time as they are a fact we can’t deny. Just because we have a single tall 5th wave, doesn’t mean we are jumping into higher degree levels.

We are still in the running to a Cycle degree wave 3 top, so until that happens, I will remain extremely bearish.

Tomorrow will be a new moon date, which can produce amazing reversals, when they feel like it. It could still take until the end of the month for this to play out, but I look at mid week times as potential turnings as well. The longer and higher this goes, just means it has much deeper to fall when the next bear market arrives.

Crude oil may crash along with the stock market, so we have to be aware of that potential situation as well.

Today the Gold/SP500 ratio is still around 2:1,  which it has been for 3 months. When a ratio is at an extreme and it seems to be stuck there, then I look at it as a warning for a major double top in the Gold/Sp500 ratio. In the end, we want to use less gold to buy a single unit of the SP500, which is close to,  (.75:1) Not until we get close to this cheap ratio again will the markets become oversold again.

Here’s what could trigger a 30% stock-market melt-up, says investor Bill Miller – MarketWatch

The markets breaking all these record highs are starting to bore me to no end! 🙄  Enough already! It sounds like the market analysts are stuck on repeat, or they are getting creative in calling for another melt-up.  It’s amazing how they can call higher and higher bull market targets when they didn’t even see the bull market coming back in 2009.

The higher calls mean nothing in the big picture as nobody knows what the markets will correct down to once those targets have been hit. Nobody is saying, ” Oh BTW, once SP500 reaches 2800, then expect a correction to 700″! Identifying bull and bear markets “after” they have turned means nothing in the big picture as the herd is always late getting in and late getting out.

Forecasting big price moves means the fundamentals are going to change as well. This is why, “fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes”.

I’m sure that at the next bear market low, we will see dramatically different fundamental news come out, and I will be very surprised if we are not in a recession as well. I mean a recession, not a depression!  When all the analysts are in consensus agreement that a recession has arrived, it will be over. A new bull market will start again and eventually move 500%, not this boring 400% 5th wave move, we are presently in.

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update

Yesterday this SP500 also peaked at 2760, after which it plunged in price and has now experienced a mini rally. Just like any other potential peak, we need a set of 5 waves in the impending decline, as 5 wave sequences point the way to a bigger trend move. Even on flat corrections we could get a smaller zigzag correction first, and a zigzag has two 5 wave sequences in it.  When the markets are pointing up and the mass media paint us a very rosy picture, they there are not too many players left to jump in.

Any decline will happen in stages, as the last thing we will get is some big 1987 one day super crash. Since 1987 many new circuit breakers have been  installed. Sure, big down days will happen once they see there is no more hope for this bull market. I will remain bearish for the foreseeable future,  until the majority joins us with their bearish mood. When that happens the markets will turn and soar once again. Any bull market top is also planting the seeds for its own destruction, as all the greatest fools are in, convinced that they can find another sucker down the road. As the media spends time looking for those suckers down the road, it may turn out that the fingers are pointing back at themselves.

SP500 Intraday World Record High Again!


For awhile the SP500 started going sideways  late last year, but has now charged up to new world record highs.  This morning we are staring at the highest peak of the SP500 in all its recorded history, and it still may not be at an end.  One good thing is that I like to see a well defined top, which can make it much easier to count down from, when it starts to happen.  Any new record high, can also turn into a potential turning point, which still could take this week to play out.

Employment reports come out on the first Friday of the month, so this still could send the market into a wild frenzy in both directions during this week.

We need some decent looking impulse like declines, because 5 waves point us towards a new direction. Any nice 5 wave decline will never last all that long, as it can turn into a zigzag very quickly.  We are witnessing a 5th wave extension alright, but remember, 5th waves are never that strong from a fundamental perspective.

The big goal is to find a permanent home for a Cycle degree wave 3 because without it, we can’t find the Cycle degree 4th wave bottom, and we would certainly not find the Cycle degree 5th wave peak as well.  The reason we are just approaching a potential wave 3 in Cycle degree is because the majority of wave analysts all are working from a 4th wave base, while all my work is done from a wave 2 base.

Working from a 4th wave base always puts us into a higher degree long before any wave structures have been confirmed. Working at degree levels too high, makes us very insensitive or prone to wait for the “big one”, when we should be fully loaded for the bull market to come. When our future wave counts are telling us more downside is to come, but insiders are buying their own stocks back, then that bearish wave count, has no chance in hell of ever being achieved. I’m not talking about any company share buy back program, which I see as a complete waste of shareholder money.

In the next day or two we could see another reversal, but until we see a single spike to the upside remain, anything can still happen in the short term.

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update.

The SP500 tried a valiant attempt in a decline, but so far has refused to follow through with any conviction. This can be a triangle with an “E” wave to go, which can fail because diagonals waves also start this way.  We need for most of the bull markets previous dips, to get completely retraced.

In the bigger bearish picture,  no support price forecast will hold for any length of time. This will fool us all into thinking that any rally is the start of the next leg up.  At a bare minimum the entire 2016-2017 bullish phase must get retraced in all of the 5 indices that I cover.  Once that target is reached,  the next phase to below the 2011 lows should also happen. We are not going into a SC or GSC bear market like many of the doom sayers are trying to tell us, besides that insider stock buying will be reported which puts a floor the decline. The start of solar cycle #25 will also shred all those bearish moods at that time.

To put it very bluntly, Since the 2000 top, not a single wave count confirming any part or start to any SC or GSC degree, has ever been confirmed. The Little Blue Book” tells us exactly in idealized form,  what patterns and counts we need. For any SC degree correction, we need many 5 wave sequence declines in Intermediate degree, or at least one Primary degree 5 wave decline. Nowhere since the 200o peaks, has this happened.

Any Cycle degree 4th wave bottom has flexibility in it, as it is not always possible to catch the extensions even as they are happening.  At this time capital preservation is the most important thing, because without that we will never have anything left to buy into the next huge bull market. Everybody hated gold recently, but gold has refused to play along with the gold bears, and has been heading north.

I will not spend that much time on the big markets during the holidays, but will review more gold and gold stock ETF’s when I can.

Mini SP500 Intraday New Record High Update.

The markets keep breaking the world record highs, and the SP500 is no exception. After every 5 wave run, even at this small Micro scale, we should expect a change in direction. The only thing that ever changes, is the degree where we think we are counting from. In my case I’m dedicated to finding all 5 waves in Cycle degree first, not SC or GSC degree locations.

SC and GSC degree price commentaries and forecasts are irrelevant in a Cycle degree world.  Everything starts with a wave zero location, and in this case 5 waves up in Cycle degree, started in 1932. By 1937 the markets were finishing a Fibonacci 5 year bull market, which started right in the middle of one of the biggest depressions in stock market history.

Now look back to the 2009 bottom, when the markets ignored all the bearish fundamentals, and proceeded  to soar, leaving the majority in the dust without any strong positions.

In the next 2-3 years we could be facing another major bear market, and you can bet the majority will be left in the dust empty handed again.

Getting caught up in our present euphoric, “New Era, Bitcoin world”, we must keep in mind that bull markets end when the majority are telling us that they can’t end. We have more price bubbles in the world today than we can count on all our fingers and toes, which also indicates a rather high degree top is in play. One degree higher than the 2007 peak to be exact.

Mini SP500 Record High Update.

This morning the Mini SP500 recorded another new record high at the 2675 price level. This does not mean that some wild move higher cannot happen, but my sequence of  5 waves sure looks like it’s coming to an end.  Stocks and the US dollar are pointing up while gold is pointing down, if that does not give you a clue on what is going to happen next, then nothing will.

This has happened so many times in market history and yet the majority can’t see it being set up. The year 2000 is a prime example what can happen after gold was pointing down in late 1999.  Real seasoned contrarians like Steven Jon Kaplan,  know this very well and in the future this situation will reverse once again.  I have discussed the impending bear market in an email exchange with Mr. Kaplan, and it didn’t take me long to realize that none of my future wave positions or outlook, needed any changes.  

SP500 2009-2017 Bull Trap Review

This is the March 2018 contract extended to see it as a weekly type chart. I did not include any Minor degree wave positions because I want to look at it from a bigger scale. At this record top the SP500 is working towards a small double top, which may still take the rest of this week to clear up.

Like Rick Rule says, ” you’re either a contrarian, or you become a victim”. The Elliott Wave principle is a contrarian system, because if we have a bullish wave count, in sympathy when the bullish majority, then our wave counts will be wrong. 

The 2009 bottom is a prime example where wave counts were as bearish as the herd was, so the expert wave analysts never saw the “Biggest bull market since the depression coming”. Steven Jon Kaplan sure did, as this quote is credited to him. 

At that time I was still brainwashed with SC and GSC degree delusional thinking, and I thought about an 80% retracement would happen. Of course, all those wave counts were trashed. What the wave position is at the 2009 bottom must be clear, as all it takes is one wave position to be wrong, then all our future forecasts will never work. 

I show three important levels in this SP500 chart, which will help to paint the impending bear market.  Think about our present top for a minute and ask yourself, “who is left to come”? What tribe is coming out of the jungle, and says, “Yes, it’s a good time to buy high to invest for the long term”?

We are in what I described as a Cycle degree wave 3 bull trap in stocks, and what’s coming will surprise the majority. No arbitrary 20% dip in the markets will do it, as 20% will just start to get the bulls angry. 

At a minimum the 2015 lows must get retraced, and then eventually the 2011 lows should get retraced as well. This leaves us with  the 666 price level that the markets would have to beat. What if the SP500 never gets close to that 2009 bottom, but stops around the 700-800 price range?  Ok, maybe I’ll be wrong when the SP500 stops at 699 instead. 🙄  We are looking about 3 years ahead so exact price levels will be hard to measure.

At this time my bet is still a 3 wave Primary degree correction, with the “B” being anything. It could move fast or slow, or be so well disguised we wouldn’t know where the Primary degree “B” wave ended. 

For those who are just starting to read my blog, I would like to stress that my wave counts are “never” higher than Cycle degree.

It’s mathematically impossible for us to be in “any” higher degree, until the 5th wave in Cycle degree is found. All SC or GSC degree comments and future fundamental forecasts mean “nothing” in a Cycle degree world. Not a single part of  SC or GSC degree wave counts have ever been confirmed by anyone, since the 2000 peaks. 

Mini SP500 Intraday: Surprise Moves!

It’s been about 3 trading sessions, since the Mini SP500 had its last record high. In order for this bullish top to hold, we need lower highs and lower lows to continuously form.   We are only Micro degree waves from a top, so there is lots of room left, in this market to soar. 

I try never to put many alternate wave counts up in one chart, as it’s all about eliminating other alternates first.  There are always 5  simple patterns that can happen in any specific degree, so we have to knock those 5 choices down to 2 choices.   The faster we can come up with alternates the better. In this case one more “C5” bullish wave can happen, so until all December lows have been completely retraced, it’s still a wild west show. 

This is just a quick update, as the markets could move very fast and another option shows up.  A big bear market is coming as it seems Bubble Mania has infected all the investors. I started counting how many bubbles we have in 2017, and I think I can come up with about 10 myself. Probably more,  once we include all the world real-estate bubbles.  It would not surprise me if all these bubbles burst at the same time, and when that happens, trillions of US dollars will go up in electronic smoke. 

Mini SP500 Intraday Review

I have to remind readers, that any move always has 5 options or 5 probabilities in any move the markets might take. The only difference is the level of degree.  I don’t like to draw multiple different wave counts on one chart, as that does nothing to eliminate other probabilities. 

If the top is real then, it’s not rocket science that the markets cannot go above that peak, but eventually they have to turn and head south again. Even now the markets can retrace 70-80% of the entire decline we just had.  When the crazies are playing in the markets, wild moves can amaze and surprise us when we least expect it.

My “ABC” pattern can be the start of a diagonal drive, but it also works very well as a potential 1-2 wave.  A potential wave 3-4 is not nearly long enough to make a great fit, so it may take until the end of the week, before a better picture emerges.  On this intraday chart the move looks very big, but on a daily chart, it’s just a little bee sting.  

I would like to see the counter rally expire sooner than later, but this pattern can sill soar to a new record high as a “C” wave.  If this market heads lower by the end of the day, that would be nice.  Make some room in your fridge, because the bears have sharp claws, and they are looking for some good bull meat to slice up! 


December, 3, 2017: Supermoon, SuperSP500!

Moon, Dec.2nd

On Friday stocks took a dive off the high board, instead of hitting some water, (soft landing) the SP500 landed on a trampoline as the markets bounced right back. With Sunday openings the markets continued on north. Another new record high was established, but squeaked in by a narrow margin. 2664 would be the number to beat as I post.  This extra down and up move, gives us a wave 3-4 but that would fit better as a diagonal.

After every 5 waves we must expect something else to happen.  Either another correction or the end of the bull market, which only gives us 2 choices. 

In the mad rush to not be left behind, a huge gap opened up.  Among the countless other open gaps that we have far below present prices, this gap will be first in line to get closed off.   As long as this gap remains open we have the equivalent of a magnet pulling prices back down. 

It’s very fitting that the SP500 touched new record highs with the Supermoon, which is also the last full moon for 2017.   

By Monday morning it could be a different story, as a quick reversal may happen. We need declining 5 wave sequences to point to a new direction and at least we want the SP500 below October lows.   The chart above is a sad documentation of how little impact the 1987 crash anniversary date had.  At best we had a Minuette degree wave 3-4, correction, which still leaves us with another 4 smaller degree levels to use. 

Update December, 4, 2017

The big fat arrow shows us a diagonal 5th wave, right into the supermoon, before it crashed again.  One little spike to the upside, always reminds us that at least another correction is coming. On a weekly chart, we have a much bigger spike, so it is not just one little spike that is important. In candle stick you have to count every skinny little wick to see the same thing. 

This market has to fall well below any 4th wave bottom that you can see on my charts above, before there is no longer the time left to break new record highs for 2017. 

Once we see a bit more southward movement, I will create another review with my 2000-to 2017  wave count. 

SP500 Intraday Stock Market Crash Update.

It’s amazing how one politician’s confession to the FBI, can crash all the stock markets at the same time. The SP500 sliced right through the bottom trend line, followed by another strong rally.  The steep angle of the crash suggests that there could be a single zigzag that has developed. This could be just another correction, but we know diagonals do start this way as well.

If the stock party is over then we know that no new highs can happen, otherwise another low will this month. I don’t see any big degree expanded patterns at this time, as that may happen only with a “B” wave in Primary degree. Even that scenario is doubtful at this time. I’m looking for the A5 wave to be a zigzag,  which will contain many 5 wave sequences with connected zigzags.

The counter rally is still soaring as I post, so we have to wait until next week before anything gets confirmed.

When the markets get this violent we know it is becoming unstable. Any 5th wave can be very unstable as it is never the strongest wave, even though a 5th wave extension has happened with Intermediate degree wave 5.

In the case of the SP500 counting from the 2009 bottom, waves, 1 and 5 are about even with wave 3 still being the longest between the 3 impulse waves.

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High: Shooting For The Moon!

Once again the markets have pushed to a new record high this morning, peaking at about 2609 so far. 2610 could be within reach after which I expect another correction.  We need a much bigger correction than what we’ve been getting. We need a correction so big, so there is no hope of any recovery in 2017. At a minimum, we need the markets to retrace back down and below, the early November low. This might be far enough where any wild counter rally will no longer break new highs. 

The Gold/SP500 ratio has not changed that much, and it has been hovering around the 2:1 ratio for most of November. It seems this extreme ratio has been hitting this  2:1 brick wall, which is what I would like to see with other ratios when they become due as well.

The (.75:1)  ratio makes the SP500 extremely cheap, which means it takes less than an ounce of gold to buy one unit of the SP500. 

The return to “cheap” stocks will not happen overnight, as we have to be prepared for the long haul, until 2021 if need be. 

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Review

From the bottom on the 15th of November, the Mini SP500 has started on another leg up which has now pushed the Mini SP500 to about 2603.  If this holds for the rest of the day I will be surprised, but every new record high the markets give us is followed by a correction.  We had a serious overlapping problem which killed the impulse idea, but it works as a diagonal at this time.  So far the DJIA has not followed through, and has a bit of catching up to do, while the Nasdaq seems to enjoy a pretty good  looking impulse. The VIX stopped at $9.40 so far, with a big GAP still left open.

All those smart investors that just love to buy high see no downside risk in the world today. Some crazy news story can send the crowd into a mini panic which we’ve seen many times before.  How long these gyrations can keep happening, is always uncertain, but the end of the month can always prove interesting. 

In the big scope of things this market will take a big hit, and if it goes fast or slow is irrelevant at this time. Just a little dip is not enough to do the trick, so at a minimum the markets need to retrace all  previous 4th waves of smaller degrees. When it stops closest to the previous 4th wave in Primary degree, then a real bottom may start to form. The big bears think that the DJIA will fall to 5000, which would give us the 1996 solar cycle base.  If markets retrace to the 1996 prices, then this would put the SP500 at 500-550. 

Markets are born to fool everyone so if the SP500 stopped between 700-800 it would not surprise me at all.  When this bearish scenario, even gets close, stocks will already be oversold, yet the only people buying would be the contrarian insiders. 

It takes two gold ounces to buy one unit of the SP500, which is on the extreme expensive side, which has not changed that much in the last week or so. 

Mini SP500 New World Record High!

Any bearish wave count I had, didn’t last very long. From the November bottom and  then followed by a 4th wave crash, created an overlapping pattern that technically would not be an impulse. In this case I will use it for a short period of time and see if a few more wild moves, turns this last run to new highs, into a diagonal wave.  The Nasdaq broke the diagonal pattern and produced a nice impulse so far. 

Old record highs have been left in the dust on most of the key indices that I follow, but we have to keep an open mind that we could be topping at another wave 3 peak. At these intraday levels, the markets are moving violently in both directions. To keep the bears piss off, this market could wobble around like this for a long, or even last out the entire year!  

After every record high, the markets will at least produce another correction, but we have to wait and see how deep any correction will go. 

Markets love even numbers so the 2600 price level would fit the bill perfectly.  What is not so obvious is that 2584 is an even Fibonacci number and if we count backwards, a 61% decline from 2584 will get us the next even Fibonacci  number of 1597. (1600) Even that number barely comes close to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, so a Cycle degree correction would have to fall much deeper. Any 987 (1000) price level would certainly fulfil part of the Cycle degree retracement requirement, as it would also retrace to 2011 market lows.  

The VIX has also crashed, and is getting very close to closing off the lowest price gap. The VIX doesn’t have to close this gap, it just would be nice to see it closed off before the VIX cranks up again.

Mini SP500 Intraday Gyrations Update.

At this time it seems that the peak of November the 9th is still holding. How much longer that peak, can claim to be the last high, is up for debate.   I start with small  degree levels and at this level, moves like this can seem like mountains and deep canyons.   I can count out a zigzag decline, but that could be the start of a diagonal run as well.  Even the rally from last week’s bottom can still develop into a diagonal 5 waves, but that would mean the top trend line will get sliced in two.  The bearish option would slice the bottom trend line in two, but even that would not be good enough.

Eventually any bigger bearish move would have to trash every conceivable support price level.  The 2015 bottom would have to be the bare minimum that this market must retrace back down to. It will never happen in one day, as there are many 7% circuit breakers in many of the stock asset classes. In other words, they will just shut down the exchanges, giving any  wild market a chance to take a few deep breaths.

The SP500 is still pushing higher as I post, so anything can still happen. It may take the rest of the week for this to play out. Thursday the 23rd will be the US Thanksgiving Day, and there will be no postings during that time.

Mini SP500 Intraday Update: Soaring Like An Eagle


The SP500 crashed down to 2556 and then reversed and has been soaring all morning. We know these fast moves cannot keep this up and another correction should be coming soon.  If this turns out true, then it could still take most of next week to play out waves 4 and 5 in Subminuette degree.

At its worst, the correction could fall to the 2573 price level, which is the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. The Russell 2000 and the SP500 Midcaps are two indexes that are not playing this game as of this morning. These two indices could be leading indicators which has happened before, so they may no longer reach a new record high.

Violent moves like these are not normal, but combined with a diagonal market, violent moves in both directions seem to be the new normal.