Tag Archives: E-Mini SP500

E-Mini SP500: Impending Rally Update?

Talk about a great downside breakout, but the angle of this present decline has been very steep.  Some counter rally is due, which could trigger all the “Buy” stops.   Usually the spikes get retraced, if a small 5th wave move has just completed. A fast move back up to the 2720 price level at the 4th wave peak, could also happen.  If this potential wave 2 rally happens, then we need wave 3-4-5 to play out.

That might get us to wave 1 in Minute degree. I will keep some of these updates rather short as when markets change directions, violence can ensue.

The US dollar would also see a rally, if stocks suddenly reversed on some “good”news. If any so called “good” news comes out and stocks hardly move, then any rally will be a fake and then die just as fast. Continuously getting lower highs, is just a bull market in reverse, at least for some of the 5 wave sequences.

Mini SP500: Having A Bad Hair Day!

For a brief time investors were indifferent to any rate increase, but they were already bearish well before the announcement on Wednesday. We also have a great looking H&S top which can give us a very ominous sign, that can also work as a brick wall. At very tops in bull markets H&S are not bullish indicators like they were during most of the 2009-2018 bull market. In a bull market the right shoulder would constantly break higher!

For the first part the February bottom must get completely retraced to kill the idea that this rally is not part of the bull market. It is the Mini DJIA that has a different count, but it will also do what all the other indices will do, and that is to head south!  What that means is that the SP500 can bottom a bit later than what the DJIA might do. This all could smooth out as any trend gets more established.

The love affair for big tech stocks is starting to wane, being anti Facebook is going to be the thing to do as privacy issues are a concern. Investors are finding out how those “FANG” stocks can get clawed to death by the market bears.

Mini Sp500 Intraday Update

Nothing has changed radically in the last few days as the markets have not made a convincing move just yet. Any Fed announcement could still send the markets soaring. Any diagonal 4th wave bottom could still be developing.  We have a H&S top which does not inspire me to keep a very bullish outlook, but hopefully by the end of the week this mediocre movie will show its true colors.   Many analysts are calling for a correction with many different price projections being forecast.

My question is, “How Big Of A Correction”?  We have hundreds and even thousands of corrections in a bull market so knowing what degree of correction is critical. I’m looking for a Cycle degree correction, which could eventually take the SP500 back down to the 800 price level.  When the SP500 ever gets there, I’m sure all the experts will no longer call it a “correction”, but they will call it a full blown “bear market”.

We can have crashes without bear markets just like the 1987 crash. In 1930 the markets started a bear market that took two years to bottom so any comparable move could also take just a few years.  There is no logic to time when using degree levels as we had a Primary degree correction that took 4 years and a Supercycle correction that only took 3 years! All  my stock market wave counts are based on finding the 5 waves in Cycle degree because without them, we have no hope of of moving into the world of SC degree wave counting.  I spent years, counting the markets in SC degree, but when we were all missing huge bull markets then this raised some serious questions.

I switched to Cycle degree counting in 2013 and I have not found any need to switch again. We can dick around with wave position gymnastics  at the smallest degree level, but they mean nothing if we keep missing bull markets.

This market has to produce lower highs, and lower lows with all rallies having a limited life span. This is how conventional wisdom is called a bear market.


My updates are going to be sporadic this week as I have many other things that need my attention, but I will update when I can.

Mini-SP500 Intraday Gyrations Upate

At this time it looks like I will have to run different wave counts in about 3 out of 5 indices. The wave counts are dramatically different with the tradeable contracts than from the indexes, which only move during the day. Futures that are traded have a wild and wooly look and feel that can distort the wave counts.  It could all smooth out a bit, which I have noticed in other future contacts as well.

This Mini SP500 contract did not travel to a new record high which I can’t use as a truncated 5th wave, but it must belong to the bigger bearish phase already.  There could be some real violent moves in both directions later this week as any Fed announcement can send markets into a dizzy spin.  I will not be happy until this market takes out all the lows of last month, but it could rest just before any downside breakout may occur.

Wave 2 in Minor degree may be finished and I’m sure I don’t need to draw out the rest of the move. By weeks end things could be different if diagonal wave structures are involved. It’s still too early to tell if a big flat or a big zigzag will dominate, but the big triangle can still be ignored at this time. We don’t have enough time before solar cycle #25 starts, for any triangle to completely play out.

I’m bearish no matter what we get, even though I may turn bullish at some counter rallies.

SP500 Intraday Rally Review

This week may be the last week, that any March contracts will be finished, after which I have to jump to June contracts with most of the indices I cover.  From Friday’s decline the markets found some joy and soared in hopes things will not be as bad as it seems. As long as the media is conducting a trade war, the chances for the markets to go down outnumber and reason that that this market should go up!

Trade war fears are not going to go away, as this kind of action has worldwide domino repercussions. 30-Day Fed Fund rates still have downside potential, which means that rate increases, are still to come during 2018.

We need the markets to clearly show lower highs, but these can happen in any 4th wave as well. This is what happened in the  2015 correction.  If another small degree wave 2 rally is in progress, then the SP500 cannot go higher than my “B” wave in Minor degree.  (Blue).  This “B” wave I’m showing is the start of a potential zigzag in intermediate degree.

This would be the start of a Cycle degree zigzag wave 4 correction, which the majority of analysts will call a “bear market”.

We can have market crashes without the bear market, as that is exactly what happened in the crash of 1987. The 87 crash was over in a few short months, but it sure will take longer in today’s markets. The 87 crash was only a Minor degree wave 3 crash, which the majority of wave analysts have used as a Primary degree crash. My 1987 crash Minor degree wave count,  is a “Full” 2 degrees lower, in what the experts have used.

These contracts that trade during the night, do produce some erroneous spikes that don’t show up, when switching this chart into line type charts.  The markets are still heading higher as I post, but we can take a bit more. We just can’t clear the “B” wave in Minor degree.

Mini SP500 Intraday Crash Update!

I’m showing a Minor degree “AB” wave with the “B” wave ending just before the end of February. This was also a full moon date and the news about the president Trumps war on cheap imports, became front blog page news.  They couldn’t find a fundamental reason why the markets should crash as all the fundamentals were still bullish.  They sure have their fundamental reasoning now!

Fundamentals are lagging indicators not leading, indicators so any bearish news would pick up the declines intensity.  This “B” wave that I labeled, would belong to a set of diagonal 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, which can only work if this Cycle degree crash turns into a zigzag. I may run this for the month of March, or until it gets trashed, whichever comes first.

The recent talk about steel and aluminum import duties that president Trump has started, has brought this to the front pages. This has all happened before folks. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of June, 17, 1930 was the last time a tariff war was conducted and it was one of the main causes of the 1929 crash and 193o-1932 bear market decline. At that time the markets gyrated everytime the Tariff Act was discussed in Congress, which was well documented in the book on “How The World Works” by Jude Wanniski.

Will this all produce a “depression”? I say “no” because in order for that to happen the US dollar needs to charge up into a major bullish phase and all stocks “and” commodities would have to crash down together!  All prices must get cheaper as the US dollar would increase in purchasing power.

With Jerome Powell indicating that three rate increases are still coming this year, this combination of bad fundamental news was enough to give the kiss of death to a bull market. Sometimes I use the 30 and 90 day simple moving averages on 90 minute charts which gives you many “Death and Golden Crosses”.

With a 30-90 day setting, we can see the Death Cross happening much sooner than when we use any 50-200 day SMA. There was one Golden Cross last month, and in March we now have another Death Cross!  Of course, this all becomes unreliable if I make any changes in any of my settings. Right now the SP500 is approaching the 30 day SMA, which could produce some resistance. With a 50-200 SMA my search for Death Crosses on daily charts has been largely a futile effort.  I think if they showed up more often the mainstream analysts will notice them and report them.

Mini SP500 Intraday Gyrations Review

The SP500 is far from breaking new record highs. It is only the Nasdaq that is getting close to breaking out into new world record highs.

Just incase I have beaten the Cycle degree flat drum too long, the above chart would be the beginnings of a zigzag in Cycle degree.  The markets would have to show us another 5 waves down in Minute degree which would then end up at wave 1 in Intermediate degree.

Any top trend line is worthless to use and any invisible bottom trend line is still a bit away from getting hit.  Another Shock&Awe move would help to confirm the bigger bearish phase, but I would throw this wave count out the window in a flash, if these markets do not perform like a bearish phase should.

Dow tumbles nearly 300 points on new Fed chair’s comments | New York Post

Jerome Powell is the new man in charge and the mass of investors, listen to his every word, when they want to!  They didn’t care that much when Janet Yellen was raising rates, but now they seemed to care. If rates are not an issue just yet, then this market could still soar.

If good news no longer pushes the markets up,  then we are over on the big bearish side already. Tomorrow is the full moon and employment numbers should come out on Frida as well. These reports can send the markets into a tizzy, but other times they get completely ignored.

Mini SP500 Intraday Rally Update

The Mini SP500 created a peak and now has started to back off. This doesn’t mean the stock party is over as another small leg up can still happen.  This rally has turned right at a small bear market rally peak, creating a potential H&S pattern. No sooner had investors injected record amounts into stocks in January, and as soon as the markets dipped, they started pulling out record funds.

Stock-market tumble sends investors fleeing equity funds – MarketWatch

They will always find someone or something to blame for the intraday crash, and the VIX is a prime scapegoat. It’s never the fault of crazy investors who get themselves in a trap situation. They also start to cry that manipulation is bringing this market down. Just about anything that goes down, they will blame on market manipulation.  These guys that believe in market manipulation, figure that markets should never crash.  All trends eventually come to an end, but only a very small amount of contrarians know this fact instinctively.

Insiders are long gone out of this market and only the emotional investors remain. My method of operation, is to always build the wave counts down when stocks are pointing up, and then build the wave count going up once the bear market has shown itself to the rest of the world.

I think it is far more important to catch a major stock market low as only a very small percentage of traders can take advantage of a decline by betting short in the market.  Besides smart short players do not need any wave counts to tell them how to bet short. By late 2008 the markets already signalled that a reversal was coming. The VIX had already peaked at 90 and was about to implode.

As I post the markets are still pushing higher, so this peak so far may not hold. There are spikes that show up, but they have more to do with high speed computer algorithms than human clicks of the mouse. “Algorithms Gone Wild” is more like it. One thing that is always certain and that is, large amounts of protective sell stop orders are piling up below present prices. Eventually they will all get triggered sending the markets to a new record low.

SP500 Index 2000-2018 Review

For many years I counted everything using Supercycle degree (SC) and Grand Supercycle (GSC) degree wave counting methods. The 2000 and 2007 peaks were relatively easy to track even with my degree levels being from another planet. The bottoms never inspired  the confidence to make extremely bullish calls.

The entire planet works on price, but price is only a small part of what has happened. You can see there are no prices in the chart above, but the majority of wave analysts include, every conceivable price you can imagine! Still the majority of all wave analysts did not see the bull market coming in late 2008. Since 2000 we have seen three sets of wave 3 peaks with the 2007 peak being a bit subdued compared to other ones. This is ok as it still broke higher than the 2000 peak.

The reason that the SP500 has three sets of wave 3 peaks is because none of the wave 3s of the past has ever been extended. The entire wave counting world is working from a 4th wave base. I’m working from a wave two base, all the time. Thinking that all the extensions are 5th waves, will always put us into a much higher degree level, than we actually are.

From the 2009 bottom to our present top is one move, but subdivided into 5 moves in Intermediate degree. Once 5 waves in any degree level are completed a correction must happen. How big the dip may turn out to be, is entirely related to what degree level our present top is going to be. If Cycle degree wave 3 is the real target, then a Cycle degree 4th wave correction must happen, otherwise it’s back to the drawing board playing with our paint by numbers set. This is just a cosmetic wave counting method, and in reality you have to go back a minimum of 100 years and start a completely new wave count each time. I’ve done it 1000’s of times hunting each time for those missed wave three extensions.

Going back 100 years sounds too much like work, so it never gets done, which causes false degree levels to be perpetuated into the future. From my perspective and in sequential order, SC degree wave 3, GSC degree wave 3 and Submillenniun wave 3, are still far into our futures.

If we’re lucky we might hit a SC degree wave three, by 2029, and GSC degree wave 3 by the 2129 time period.

While all the analysts are busy forecasting an ever increasing rosy future, I’m busy looking at and building the alternate future.

I have two lines in the chart above, with the first one at the 1800 price level, which would retrace the entire 5th wave in Intermediate degree. The 2009 bottom fell well below the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which was in late 2002. Not quite 2 years for an Intermediate degree correction. It only took 3 years for a SC degree correction from 1929-1932, so a Cycle degree 4th wave correction might only last three years as well. We sure are “not” going to get some 600 year, GSC degree bear market.

At 1800, the SP500 would not even get close to any required previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, but anything below the SP500 1000 price level would. All the smart technical analysts will draw the megaphone bottom, which points to the SP500 price level around 500.   Everybody on the planet will see the same thing, which usually means that it will never happen. The markets will pull out all the stops to try and fool us a again, and it may do that by “Not” falling below those 2009 lows.

Just because the SP500 may have dipped 10% does not mean that the correction is finished. Like I said, price has little to do with it, but the pattern is everything. Only one completed set of 5 waves in Minute degree does not complete a correction. You can wish hope and pray all you want, but you can’t turn a single 5 wave sequence into a completed correction.

Sure, all the 5 indices I covered soared again late last week, but that can all be due to short covering. Many traders are trying to short DIA and SPY ETFs already, to a point where no more DIA can be borrowed.

Protective sell stops are stacked up below present prices, and once they start to get triggered, we could get the next leg down. All the SP500 has to do is fall below 2530 again, which will help to confirm that, “The Big Dip”,  is in progress.

Mini SP500 Rally Update

A very strong counter rally is now in force, but if the bigger bearish picture is in effect, then this rally will run out of steam, by the end of this week. This market crash should not be a surprise to any serious market watcher as it seems to happen at every major top in January.

Investors don’t care about buying low and selling high, so they will always get themselves into a bull trap and get wiped out in the process.  The constant brainwashing about staying in the markets for the long term didn’t help in 1929 nor in 2007. No trend lasts forever as all trends eventually come to an end, especially in the general stock markets.

Insiders left this market a long time ago, and there are no real important insider buying announcements that have come out recently.

In futures it’s worse where trends can change direction very violently, with no too little warning. Leverage which produces fear, is the main driver of prices in the futures markets.

The markets are still soaring as I post, so at worst this bullish run could extend into next week.

Mini SP500 Update Another Record To Break

Yesterday the SP500 pushed to another record high at 2855. That record high was followed by another wild downward move, that can be another zigzag. I extended the wave count a bit more, which may only take a few hours before the bottom trend line gets hit again. I want the SP500 to slice through the bottom trend line with conviction, as a bigger correction is long overdue. The bullish phase from January the 16th sure is not an impulse, but it fits a diagonal pattern much better.

The good thing is that we don’t have a double top situation as the secondary peak is lower. Not sorting out the last wave from the bull market and the first wave of a bear market makes any declining wave count very difficult to count out effectively. Eventually the fog will lift even if it’s only for a short period of time.

February is when the new FED is sworn in,  who can have an unknown impact on the markets. It seems this market is in a generational trend with the analysts painting us a perfect picture of the future.

Analysts are constantly directing your thinking, (brainwashing technique) to higher and higher market forecasts. Do you feel safe investing with the herd?  Market participants only care about one thing and that is that the bull market continues. When the markets turn south, they can panic as a rush to the exits can happen.

Nothing has changed for the impending bear market, even when the greater fools are jumping in. The last players in this market are always the weakest, so it will take very little to scare them right back out again.

The intense media attention to this bull market works like a big speaker horn. When that happens, I always ask myself, “Who’s left to come in”?  When a market is priced for perfection, then this market has no choice but to eventually turn into a big bear market, big enough to catch the majority of participants by surprise. We have 15 sets of degree levels all in order from the largest down to the smallest, so guessing at what the big degree level is, is not an option.

I like to be very specific which largest degree level  I’m using, so it is easier to track down any mistakes as soon as possible. I believe a Cycle degree 4th wave bear market is still coming, so preservation of capital is extremely important. Sure we can play this cat and mouse game as any correction may not last very long.

We are coming up to months end, when things have a nasty habit of making surprise reversals. To give this market some credit, it seems to keep going and going and going, just like the Energizer Bunny.

Even though the markets keep breaking higher I will not abandon my Cycle degree top, as extensions are part of the landscape and as wave analysts we have to deal with it. I will remain bearish until such a time this market shows us what it wants to do. I will say one thing and that is at a bare minimum the SP500 has to hit the 1800 price level, which can give us a support  but only for a short while.

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update

The SP500 is now developing a small degree double top which I can fit into a diagonal 5th wave.  Even now another spike to the upside can still happen.  A correction is coming and it will be bigger than the majority are expecting.  The “Market Gremlin” will raise a shit storm in the next few years as a financial earthquake is coming.  All those pretty “Green”  numbers in a bull market,  turn to “Red” in a bear market.  If you think that a few $300-$400 billion going up in smoke in the Cryptos is a big deal then, you haven’t seen nothing yet as $20-$30 trillion will go up in smoke once the markets hit the “Real” bottom.

Just for starters the entire 2018 rally has to get retraced, followed by retracing the entire Trump rally as well. Two years worth of gains will disappear in a blink of an eye, so don’t fall asleep being complacent with the majority. Investing with the majority will get you the same results as the majority get when the “Big Bear”comes a knocking. The real bears are not going to be so nice, as there will be no knock as they will just smash through the front door.

In this world you are a contrarian or you become the victim, so you do have a choice.

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update

Yesterday this SP500 also peaked at 2760, after which it plunged in price and has now experienced a mini rally. Just like any other potential peak, we need a set of 5 waves in the impending decline, as 5 wave sequences point the way to a bigger trend move. Even on flat corrections we could get a smaller zigzag correction first, and a zigzag has two 5 wave sequences in it.  When the markets are pointing up and the mass media paint us a very rosy picture, they there are not too many players left to jump in.

Any decline will happen in stages, as the last thing we will get is some big 1987 one day super crash. Since 1987 many new circuit breakers have been  installed. Sure, big down days will happen once they see there is no more hope for this bull market. I will remain bearish for the foreseeable future,  until the majority joins us with their bearish mood. When that happens the markets will turn and soar once again. Any bull market top is also planting the seeds for its own destruction, as all the greatest fools are in, convinced that they can find another sucker down the road. As the media spends time looking for those suckers down the road, it may turn out that the fingers are pointing back at themselves.

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update.

The SP500 tried a valiant attempt in a decline, but so far has refused to follow through with any conviction. This can be a triangle with an “E” wave to go, which can fail because diagonals waves also start this way.  We need for most of the bull markets previous dips, to get completely retraced.

In the bigger bearish picture,  no support price forecast will hold for any length of time. This will fool us all into thinking that any rally is the start of the next leg up.  At a bare minimum the entire 2016-2017 bullish phase must get retraced in all of the 5 indices that I cover.  Once that target is reached,  the next phase to below the 2011 lows should also happen. We are not going into a SC or GSC bear market like many of the doom sayers are trying to tell us, besides that insider stock buying will be reported which puts a floor the decline. The start of solar cycle #25 will also shred all those bearish moods at that time.

To put it very bluntly, Since the 2000 top, not a single wave count confirming any part or start to any SC or GSC degree, has ever been confirmed. The Little Blue Book” tells us exactly in idealized form,  what patterns and counts we need. For any SC degree correction, we need many 5 wave sequence declines in Intermediate degree, or at least one Primary degree 5 wave decline. Nowhere since the 200o peaks, has this happened.

Any Cycle degree 4th wave bottom has flexibility in it, as it is not always possible to catch the extensions even as they are happening.  At this time capital preservation is the most important thing, because without that we will never have anything left to buy into the next huge bull market. Everybody hated gold recently, but gold has refused to play along with the gold bears, and has been heading north.

I will not spend that much time on the big markets during the holidays, but will review more gold and gold stock ETF’s when I can.

Mini SP500 Intraday New Record High Update.

The markets keep breaking the world record highs, and the SP500 is no exception. After every 5 wave run, even at this small Micro scale, we should expect a change in direction. The only thing that ever changes, is the degree where we think we are counting from. In my case I’m dedicated to finding all 5 waves in Cycle degree first, not SC or GSC degree locations.

SC and GSC degree price commentaries and forecasts are irrelevant in a Cycle degree world.  Everything starts with a wave zero location, and in this case 5 waves up in Cycle degree, started in 1932. By 1937 the markets were finishing a Fibonacci 5 year bull market, which started right in the middle of one of the biggest depressions in stock market history.

Now look back to the 2009 bottom, when the markets ignored all the bearish fundamentals, and proceeded  to soar, leaving the majority in the dust without any strong positions.

In the next 2-3 years we could be facing another major bear market, and you can bet the majority will be left in the dust empty handed again.

Getting caught up in our present euphoric, “New Era, Bitcoin world”, we must keep in mind that bull markets end when the majority are telling us that they can’t end. We have more price bubbles in the world today than we can count on all our fingers and toes, which also indicates a rather high degree top is in play. One degree higher than the 2007 peak to be exact.

Mini SP500 Record High Update.

This morning the Mini SP500 recorded another new record high at the 2675 price level. This does not mean that some wild move higher cannot happen, but my sequence of  5 waves sure looks like it’s coming to an end.  Stocks and the US dollar are pointing up while gold is pointing down, if that does not give you a clue on what is going to happen next, then nothing will.

This has happened so many times in market history and yet the majority can’t see it being set up. The year 2000 is a prime example what can happen after gold was pointing down in late 1999.  Real seasoned contrarians like Steven Jon Kaplan,  know this very well and in the future this situation will reverse once again.  I have discussed the impending bear market in an email exchange with Mr. Kaplan, and it didn’t take me long to realize that none of my future wave positions or outlook, needed any changes.  

Mini SP500 Intraday: Surprise Moves!

It’s been about 3 trading sessions, since the Mini SP500 had its last record high. In order for this bullish top to hold, we need lower highs and lower lows to continuously form.   We are only Micro degree waves from a top, so there is lots of room left, in this market to soar. 

I try never to put many alternate wave counts up in one chart, as it’s all about eliminating other alternates first.  There are always 5  simple patterns that can happen in any specific degree, so we have to knock those 5 choices down to 2 choices.   The faster we can come up with alternates the better. In this case one more “C5” bullish wave can happen, so until all December lows have been completely retraced, it’s still a wild west show. 

This is just a quick update, as the markets could move very fast and another option shows up.  A big bear market is coming as it seems Bubble Mania has infected all the investors. I started counting how many bubbles we have in 2017, and I think I can come up with about 10 myself. Probably more,  once we include all the world real-estate bubbles.  It would not surprise me if all these bubbles burst at the same time, and when that happens, trillions of US dollars will go up in electronic smoke. 

Mini SP500 Intraday Review

I have to remind readers, that any move always has 5 options or 5 probabilities in any move the markets might take. The only difference is the level of degree.  I don’t like to draw multiple different wave counts on one chart, as that does nothing to eliminate other probabilities. 

If the top is real then, it’s not rocket science that the markets cannot go above that peak, but eventually they have to turn and head south again. Even now the markets can retrace 70-80% of the entire decline we just had.  When the crazies are playing in the markets, wild moves can amaze and surprise us when we least expect it.

My “ABC” pattern can be the start of a diagonal drive, but it also works very well as a potential 1-2 wave.  A potential wave 3-4 is not nearly long enough to make a great fit, so it may take until the end of the week, before a better picture emerges.  On this intraday chart the move looks very big, but on a daily chart, it’s just a little bee sting.  

I would like to see the counter rally expire sooner than later, but this pattern can sill soar to a new record high as a “C” wave.  If this market heads lower by the end of the day, that would be nice.  Make some room in your fridge, because the bears have sharp claws, and they are looking for some good bull meat to slice up! 


December, 3, 2017: Supermoon, SuperSP500!

Moon, Dec.2nd

On Friday stocks took a dive off the high board, instead of hitting some water, (soft landing) the SP500 landed on a trampoline as the markets bounced right back. With Sunday openings the markets continued on north. Another new record high was established, but squeaked in by a narrow margin. 2664 would be the number to beat as I post.  This extra down and up move, gives us a wave 3-4 but that would fit better as a diagonal.

After every 5 waves we must expect something else to happen.  Either another correction or the end of the bull market, which only gives us 2 choices. 

In the mad rush to not be left behind, a huge gap opened up.  Among the countless other open gaps that we have far below present prices, this gap will be first in line to get closed off.   As long as this gap remains open we have the equivalent of a magnet pulling prices back down. 

It’s very fitting that the SP500 touched new record highs with the Supermoon, which is also the last full moon for 2017.   

By Monday morning it could be a different story, as a quick reversal may happen. We need declining 5 wave sequences to point to a new direction and at least we want the SP500 below October lows.   The chart above is a sad documentation of how little impact the 1987 crash anniversary date had.  At best we had a Minuette degree wave 3-4, correction, which still leaves us with another 4 smaller degree levels to use. 

Update December, 4, 2017

The big fat arrow shows us a diagonal 5th wave, right into the supermoon, before it crashed again.  One little spike to the upside, always reminds us that at least another correction is coming. On a weekly chart, we have a much bigger spike, so it is not just one little spike that is important. In candle stick you have to count every skinny little wick to see the same thing. 

This market has to fall well below any 4th wave bottom that you can see on my charts above, before there is no longer the time left to break new record highs for 2017. 

Once we see a bit more southward movement, I will create another review with my 2000-to 2017  wave count. 

SP500 Intraday Stock Market Crash Update.

It’s amazing how one politician’s confession to the FBI, can crash all the stock markets at the same time. The SP500 sliced right through the bottom trend line, followed by another strong rally.  The steep angle of the crash suggests that there could be a single zigzag that has developed. This could be just another correction, but we know diagonals do start this way as well.

If the stock party is over then we know that no new highs can happen, otherwise another low will this month. I don’t see any big degree expanded patterns at this time, as that may happen only with a “B” wave in Primary degree. Even that scenario is doubtful at this time. I’m looking for the A5 wave to be a zigzag,  which will contain many 5 wave sequences with connected zigzags.

The counter rally is still soaring as I post, so we have to wait until next week before anything gets confirmed.

When the markets get this violent we know it is becoming unstable. Any 5th wave can be very unstable as it is never the strongest wave, even though a 5th wave extension has happened with Intermediate degree wave 5.

In the case of the SP500 counting from the 2009 bottom, waves, 1 and 5 are about even with wave 3 still being the longest between the 3 impulse waves.

Mini SP500 Vertical Spike Update.

At the rate the SP500 is soaring we will be in the stratosphere before too long.  Of course, investors will freeze to death long before this can ever happen.   The VIX hasn’t crashed, but has joined the SP500 for this rally. If the bears attack stocks again, then the VIX could keep right on going north for much longer. 

When a new vertical high is forming, I look for another potential reversal to be setting up.  A bull market correction would have its downside limit, but must establish a low, from which another leg up would have to develop.  Just incase a much bigger degree correction is lurking inside the crystal ball, all the support prices we can invent, will never hold.  

At a minimum a good sizable correction will go “off” the charts heading south not north. 

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High: Shooting For The Moon!

Once again the markets have pushed to a new record high this morning, peaking at about 2609 so far. 2610 could be within reach after which I expect another correction.  We need a much bigger correction than what we’ve been getting. We need a correction so big, so there is no hope of any recovery in 2017. At a minimum, we need the markets to retrace back down and below, the early November low. This might be far enough where any wild counter rally will no longer break new highs. 

The Gold/SP500 ratio has not changed that much, and it has been hovering around the 2:1 ratio for most of November. It seems this extreme ratio has been hitting this  2:1 brick wall, which is what I would like to see with other ratios when they become due as well.

The (.75:1)  ratio makes the SP500 extremely cheap, which means it takes less than an ounce of gold to buy one unit of the SP500. 

The return to “cheap” stocks will not happen overnight, as we have to be prepared for the long haul, until 2021 if need be. 

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Review

From the bottom on the 15th of November, the Mini SP500 has started on another leg up which has now pushed the Mini SP500 to about 2603.  If this holds for the rest of the day I will be surprised, but every new record high the markets give us is followed by a correction.  We had a serious overlapping problem which killed the impulse idea, but it works as a diagonal at this time.  So far the DJIA has not followed through, and has a bit of catching up to do, while the Nasdaq seems to enjoy a pretty good  looking impulse. The VIX stopped at $9.40 so far, with a big GAP still left open.

All those smart investors that just love to buy high see no downside risk in the world today. Some crazy news story can send the crowd into a mini panic which we’ve seen many times before.  How long these gyrations can keep happening, is always uncertain, but the end of the month can always prove interesting. 

In the big scope of things this market will take a big hit, and if it goes fast or slow is irrelevant at this time. Just a little dip is not enough to do the trick, so at a minimum the markets need to retrace all  previous 4th waves of smaller degrees. When it stops closest to the previous 4th wave in Primary degree, then a real bottom may start to form. The big bears think that the DJIA will fall to 5000, which would give us the 1996 solar cycle base.  If markets retrace to the 1996 prices, then this would put the SP500 at 500-550. 

Markets are born to fool everyone so if the SP500 stopped between 700-800 it would not surprise me at all.  When this bearish scenario, even gets close, stocks will already be oversold, yet the only people buying would be the contrarian insiders. 

It takes two gold ounces to buy one unit of the SP500, which is on the extreme expensive side, which has not changed that much in the last week or so. 

Mini SP500 New World Record High!

Any bearish wave count I had, didn’t last very long. From the November bottom and  then followed by a 4th wave crash, created an overlapping pattern that technically would not be an impulse. In this case I will use it for a short period of time and see if a few more wild moves, turns this last run to new highs, into a diagonal wave.  The Nasdaq broke the diagonal pattern and produced a nice impulse so far. 

Old record highs have been left in the dust on most of the key indices that I follow, but we have to keep an open mind that we could be topping at another wave 3 peak. At these intraday levels, the markets are moving violently in both directions. To keep the bears piss off, this market could wobble around like this for a long, or even last out the entire year!  

After every record high, the markets will at least produce another correction, but we have to wait and see how deep any correction will go. 

Markets love even numbers so the 2600 price level would fit the bill perfectly.  What is not so obvious is that 2584 is an even Fibonacci number and if we count backwards, a 61% decline from 2584 will get us the next even Fibonacci  number of 1597. (1600) Even that number barely comes close to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, so a Cycle degree correction would have to fall much deeper. Any 987 (1000) price level would certainly fulfil part of the Cycle degree retracement requirement, as it would also retrace to 2011 market lows.  

The VIX has also crashed, and is getting very close to closing off the lowest price gap. The VIX doesn’t have to close this gap, it just would be nice to see it closed off before the VIX cranks up again.

Mini SP500 Intraday Gyrations Update.

At this time it seems that the peak of November the 9th is still holding. How much longer that peak, can claim to be the last high, is up for debate.   I start with small  degree levels and at this level, moves like this can seem like mountains and deep canyons.   I can count out a zigzag decline, but that could be the start of a diagonal run as well.  Even the rally from last week’s bottom can still develop into a diagonal 5 waves, but that would mean the top trend line will get sliced in two.  The bearish option would slice the bottom trend line in two, but even that would not be good enough.

Eventually any bigger bearish move would have to trash every conceivable support price level.  The 2015 bottom would have to be the bare minimum that this market must retrace back down to. It will never happen in one day, as there are many 7% circuit breakers in many of the stock asset classes. In other words, they will just shut down the exchanges, giving any  wild market a chance to take a few deep breaths.

The SP500 is still pushing higher as I post, so anything can still happen. It may take the rest of the week for this to play out. Thursday the 23rd will be the US Thanksgiving Day, and there will be no postings during that time.

Mini SP500 Intraday Update: Soaring Like An Eagle


The SP500 crashed down to 2556 and then reversed and has been soaring all morning. We know these fast moves cannot keep this up and another correction should be coming soon.  If this turns out true, then it could still take most of next week to play out waves 4 and 5 in Subminuette degree.

At its worst, the correction could fall to the 2573 price level, which is the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. The Russell 2000 and the SP500 Midcaps are two indexes that are not playing this game as of this morning. These two indices could be leading indicators which has happened before, so they may no longer reach a new record high.

Violent moves like these are not normal, but combined with a diagonal market, violent moves in both directions seem to be the new normal.

Mini SP500 Intraday Progress Review

The Mini SP500 decline seems to be in the shape of a zigzag. One zigzag at this small scale does not make a complete sequence just yet.

Even though the markets have plunged a bit more as I post, we can still take a bit of downside if a diagonal 4th wave is still in progress.  Just in case this is a diagonal 4th wave, then the SP500 October low must not be breached by any amount. Being part of a bigger ending diagonal, is not ruled out, but it may take the rest of the week to remove the smoke inside the crystal ball.

At the October base, we would also be in a H&S position,  so that can give stock bears a rude wake up call.

Mini SP500 Record High Short Update

Just a quick update this morning, but will try and update later today.  The SP500 thrashed around record highs again and touched 2594 before it turned south.  It is important to know which wave is or was the last high, otherwise our wave count will never even get close. I started with the second smallest Submicro degree, but we need  this market to leave the new record in the dust, otherwise it could be just another correction.

One thing we can say is that in the last week or so, the rally was very choppy.  This usually indicates a potential 5th wave may have finished.

The big thing is that the secondary top is a higher high, which makes it much easier to start a count from.

Mini Sp500 Intraday Record High Update

This morning the SP500 broke another record high of 2593, before it started to back off and turn lower quickly. We are stuck with what looks like a double top, but the second peak was lower and it looks like a set of 5 waves could be starting. Sometimes markets reverse on Wednesdays, and further downside would help  keep the top from being surpassed yet again.  We know for the last month or so that it is futile to label a potential 5th wave like an impulse. Connecting them with zigzags is a different story as that can make it a triangle or a diagonal.  Many times there is no room to label them effectively, but we must know the difference between the two types of waves and where they develop most often. 

It would not take much for this to drop well below my bottom trend line and if it did then we have to open minded that a small expanded pattern may also be in progress.   We are working with very small degree wave structures and from that October 4th wave bottom in Minuette degree, we only have 4 degree levels left to use.  I won’t be happy until that October low is completely retraced, and by the sounds of all the Perma bulls, that will never happen. 

Some analysts even sound like some mysterious group of cavemen are all of a sudden going to invest in this market.  Only the emotional investors are in this game and they will jump on any bullish move in fear of being left out, or left behind. Running with the herd can make you feel, “safe”  but then the results can be the same as what the majority gets.  

So far this top is holding as I post, but we need much more downside to establish the last record high of 2017. We need the markets to drop so low, so there is no longer any chance for this market to hit another record high.  One full month of downside should do it. 

The Gold/Sp500 ratio is sitting at 2:1 which means it takes two Troy ounces to buy one unit of the SP500. This number should compress as stocks become cheaper again. This could take until a 1:1 ratio or even a (.75 :1)  ratio gets hit.  

Mini Sp500 Intraday Record High Review

On Friday the SP500 peaked at 2580 which produced another world record stock market high. This market is trying to push higher and go for yet another record. I’m sure not going to get in the way of that, as this market is full of short term surprises.

I don’t think there is another 5th wave extension to come as wave 3 seems to be the main wave that has extended.

Long term this market is doomed for a severe correction as no trend lasts forever. What will trigger any correction is never that obvious before it happens otherwise the majority could take advantage of it and become wealthy. The majority has only become wealthy on paper, just like in any other boom cycle, but “On Paper” is where it usually stays.

Big name companies are going under in the US and Canada, erasing a massive amounts of shareholder value. Sears in Canada is history, and the crash of GE has already erased $100, billion of shareholder value.

When I checked this morning the VIX still has to close a gap at $9.80 so that could keep this bullish phase, going a bit longer.

In my local area fireworks were going off in the streets, and I wish everybody a safe and happy evening.