Tag Archives: E-Mini Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq Intraday New Record High Update

This morning stocks surged up again, as the Nasdaq touched 6690 at its highest point. This small degree 5th wave has widely overlapping moves, that suggest another diagonal 5th wave is developing. It ended with a small spike so we will have to wait latter in the week to see if this peak holds. Sooner or later this January 5 wave sequence, has to correct.  Eventually, it should retrace the entire January rally, before another strong leg up can occur.

There isn’t that much action in the early part of the week, but I would expect things to change by Wenesday.

I have posted most of the 5 indices I cover with my largest degree wave count, and have the idealized version up as well. The bull market, we are tracking started in early 2009 and since then has been on a huge bullish phase that must also come to an end.

At this time any new record high will illicit a counter rally containing a set of 3 waves. Unless, we are ending a bigger degree phase, where stocks can move down with 5 wave patterns.  Longer term I’m very bearish even if another leg gets added on, as the smart money is not entering this stock market price bubble.

The longer the general markets take to pop, our time window to a 2021 bottom becomes shorter as well. Somewhere we would need to get a very steep drop to help speed the process up.

Stunning market declines produce equally stunning bull markets as this Nasdaq has generated about a 640% gain since the 2009 lows. Of course, if we were waiting for the Nasdaq to go much deeper in early 2009, then the bull market started without us. This was barely enough time to take a token position, never mind trying to disperse a larger net worth position that smart money has available. The EWP has turned into a short term trade setup tool, that long term contrarians would never use. Big cycles are a fact of life and choosing to ignore them will be detrimental to our investment accounts.

Solar Cycles drive the business and expansion cycles on earth, and it wasn’t until solar cycle #23 ended until stocks turned and headed north again. By 2021 we should have started solar cycle #25, which will produce another 8 year bull market. Anyone caught with a bearish wave count at that time will get their wave counts shredded, leaving the surprised empty handed again as a new leg starts back up.

It matters little how bearish of a price bottom we may get by 2021 but the next big bull market will leave that Nasdaq 6690 price level in the dust.

Nasdaq Rocket To The Moon!

I was compelled to post the Nasdaq again. The start of 2018 sure came in the a bang, or should I say the roar of a Falcon Heavy blasting off. I will use the December 2017 decline as a triangle as they seem to be pretty rare in financial history.  What a triangle tells me is that once the “thrust” is finished, I must also look for a higher degree.  We have no shortage of higher degrees to pick from as I could stack at least three more degree levels at this impending top.

This market needs a much bigger correction than what the majority thinks we are going to get. Being brainwashed by the 20% bear market guideline is a joke, when you look at the 2000-2002 Nasdaq crash.  A 20% correction would do nothing for all the fundamentals to re-adjust. From the early 2009 bottom, the Nasdaq soared with many corrections along the way. It wasn’t until the 2011 bottom that the markets switched into “Stock Mania Mode”.  Gold crashed, stocks and the US dollar soared.

From the early 2009 bottom to our present top calculates out as a 630% gain. That puts the other 4 indices I track, to shame.  All the wave counting in the world will mean very little if we don’t identify 2009-2018 as a 5 wave sequence, complete with an expanded wave 3-4 correction. My take is that this huge bull market is a single wave structure containing 5 waves in Intermediate degree.

Others may have a 5 wave count in Primary degree, but this tells me their past wave counts are in SC degree already. That’s just like time traveling on paper, but then all Fibonacci even numbers would not make any sense as well. These big degree wave analysts just love to be special, as they think because markets travel in big and tall waves, that we must be in a higher degree.

This is the furthest from the truth as big moves do stretch and extend making small degrees look like big degree moves.

At a minimum the Nasdaq chart above has to retrace it’s entire January move, and that is just to get warmed up. For a Cycle degree wave 3 to get confirmed we must get a 3 wave bearish move containing nothing higher than 3 Primary degree letters. At this time I will keep any big triangle pattern at the bottom of my list.

Big bull markets attract the crooks, trend chasers and the novice as well. Most investors don’t know what a “Bull Trap” is, because participants are biased all the time.

In the long run the Nasdaq should also go below the 2011 bull market correction, which would be the 2000 price level. The markets will be oversold before any real price bottom, even gets close. Ignoring the news on any insider buying at that time, will leave you stranded with just a small  token position, and in constant fear of the markets going lower. I’m sure insiders of most publicly listed companies do not show their fear when they buy low, because they know that the business cycle will return. It’s more like the solar cycles that are responsible for the business cycle, but politicians love to take credit for saving the stock markets.

This market seems to want to frustrate anyone that is bearish to early, but it takes time to switch mental states before it happens, as once it does start on its correction there will be no time for the majority to react.

Nasdaq Intraday Bubble Top Review

This morning after reaching another record high of 6545, the Mini Nasdaq plunged, but has now started to rally again. Any  big bearish phase should produce lower highs along its journey heading south. At this time it’s not a done deal, as we know that these markets can make violent moves to the upside as well.

Diagonal wave declines do make zigzag crashes like this as well, so until that recent world record high holds, anything can still happen in the short term. In the long run the 5 main indices I cover, will all terminate at a potential wave 3 in Cycle degree. From any wave 3 top we know that we have 3 idealized possible corrective patterns, which I have been posted for many years already. We could get a big flat or zigzag, with a long drawn out triangle being the last of my choices.

I have so many idealized triangles posted for several higher degree levels, but the chances are good they will never materialize. My search for all 5 waves in Cycle degree is very important, as without them no SC and GSC degree wave counts can exist. All fundamental forecasts based on any SC or GSC degree wave positions  will never work as well.  Sure, we can get a deep recession and if you believe the fundamentalists when they are bearish, then just look back to the 1932 bottom and the huge rally that followed ending with the 1937 peak.  That bull market was a huge 5 year and 473 % gain, in one of the worst depressions in American stock market history.

Some believe this Nasdaq bull has a long way to go, due to some income tax reduction. That idea will have great difficulty in materializing from a price bubble peak. It worked for Regan, when a bull market was just starting,  but It will not work for President Trump!  The odds are much better that in the end, Donald Trump will be blamed for any crash of the stock markets. Just like 1932 or 2009, any bearish bottom towards the 2021 time period will be the breeding grounds for the next big bullish phase.

Having a very bullish wave count in sympathy with the crowd will never work, just like a super bearish wave count in sympathy with all the bears, didn’t work in 2002 and 2009.

Bitcoin Power: Nasdaq Soars To New Record Highs

Many times I can’t help it,  but to look at this insane market from a science fiction perspective.   We have a Bitcoin mining driven induced mania, that could be putting a huge strain on the demands of electrical power. Without the Nasdaq or tech industry, there would be no Cyrptos, as most of the high flying Bitcoin mining stocks are in the Nasdaq. Ask yourself, “Will these Bitcoin miner stocks keep going up while the Nasdaq crashes?” More and more stories are coming out about the huge power requirement for Crypto mining operations. It’s  getting to a point where you have to build a small nuclear reactor attached to the mining rig for power and cooling demands.  Even the demand for coal for power generation has increased.

The next thing we may read about is that, “97.5% of experts agree Bitcoin mining is the cause of global warming”. They blame the industrial revolution caused global warming, yet a Bitcoin mining revolution draws more power, than the entire industrial revolution ever used. They say that even coal demand is driven by Bitcoin mining. Coal was also used to power the industrial revolution, so what’s the difference today?

Coal Is Fueling Bitcoin’s Meteoric Rise – Bloomberg

How Energy Investors Are Getting In On The Bitcoin Boom | OilPrice.com

One day the grid will get overloaded,  triggered by some wild CME from the sun. Many Bitcoin mining operations would come to a grinding halt including many electric cars and trucks.

The Stunning Energy Cost Of Tesla’s Semi-Truck | OilPrice.com

When a new record high is in the making, then I look for a potential correction to materialize. Another correction in a bullish phase can’t go that deep as it would then break out through any trend lines. At a minimum the Nasdaq would have to crash below the 6250 price level, but getting there may not be that simple as this market refuses to die.

Nasdaq And Bitcoin Mania, Two Peas In A Pod

While the Nasdaq gyrates around, and investors have long forgotten the 2009 bottom, then it’s always a good time to look back to the 2009 bottom. 

 Bitcoin Wave Zero, started in July 2010 about 15 months after the Nasdaq  turned around in early 2009. It’s silly to think that this crypto mania  is special or the start of a new era. There is nothing new about it as the markets have crashed when new electronic equipment was installed. 

While there is only one Nasdaq, we can’t say that about the Crypto Mania that’s going on.  Some think there are about 1000 different cryptocurrencies in the process of being created. Shit, that’s far more varieties of cryptocurrencies  than there ever was in different types of Tulips!

We are in a tech driven world, but so was the dotcom boom in 2000.  My bet is that once the Nasdaq starts to turn into a bear market, then Bitcoin will follow right along with it.  A  little 25%,  Nasdaq flash crash will not do it, nor will a 60% retracement do it!  We are going into a bear market that very few investors know that’s coming.

When all the experts are painting you a rosy bull market picture of the future, then “Who is left to get in”?  Like Rick Rules says, “Don’t confuse a bull market with brains”! Only emotional people buy in at the top, and they will run as fast as they can once the markets and Bicoin start to head south again. 

Yes, the pattern from 2000-2009 is ugly, but we know where the 4th wave bottom in Primary degree ended. The 5 waves up in the Nasdaq look like the closest to a well formed impulse that you can find. Many smart contrarians know this market is heading down, but we will never know exactly where it will find the real bottom. If I say the Nasdaq will eventually land at 1300, it will go to 1200 just to prove me wrong. 

Nasdaq can rocket to 8,000 and beyond, says Bank of America analyst – MarketWatch

                                                         This news link is a prime example, how bullish experts are at stock market peaks.

Mini Nasdaq 100: Still Heading South!

It seems that  the Nasdaq is still heading south with the final peak about the last day of the month. The markets also turned south on a full moon, which is supposed to be very bullish for stocks. Most of the time all moon cycles do,  is provide a potential turning point. The Nasdaq  did not follow the other indices to new record highs, but has been heading down since the end of the month. 

Yes, I would like to see more 5 wave sequences develop, but I started with a potential diagonal. The “A, B, ” I show can also work as an impulse, but I would like to see more before we will know with a higher degree of confidence. The further south the Nasdaq goes the less of a chance it will be, for the Nasdaq to push for a new record high. 

6430 seems to be the number to beat which also establish a new record Gold/Nasdaq ratio of 5:1 It now takes 5 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Nasdaq. That is a huge difference from the days when the Nasdaq was the cheapest at the March 2009 lows of 1.18:1.  It may never reach this extreme ratio again, but we may see closer to 2 or 3:1 again. Just like the other indices,  I’m expecting a Cycle degree correction, which the majority will end up calling a bear market.  By the time the analysts figure out that we are in a bear market or recession, it will be getting close to finishing. 

The majority always wins in a bull market, but in a bear market the majority will always be left holding worthless paper. They don’t take the time and effort to capture the paper gains, like the seasoned contrarians do. In this world you’re either a contrarian or you become a victim of the stampeding mob! Many realize that a top is near, but they think they run for the exits before the mob gets to the door. Good luck with that,  as that has never worked at any major peak in the last hundred years. 

A SC degree correction from 1929-1932 only took three years, so there is no logic in calling for a 600 year bear market, especially if we ignore all solar cycles.  Wave analysts ignored solar cycle #24 in 2009,  and they will ignore when solar cycle #25 starts in 2021. 

The 2009 bottom has a much higher bottom in 2009 so at this time I don’t think that, that price level will ever get hit. Below 2011 lows is my target at this time, which gives us a range between Nasdaq 1000 and 2000.  

Nasdaq Intraday Crash update

Still having chart data problems, but sometimes a chart will show up. In this case it was the Nasdaq as it took the biggest decline when compared to others.  Any previous low can supply temporary support, but it will not tell you if temporary support is just a simple correction in a bull market. 

Even though this was a great move down, we need more evidence that any new trend is sustainable. In other words the Nasdaq has to fall off the cliff, and disappear below all October lows.  We need this just to see if we can establish some decent set of impulse waves. When the markets want to go higher, then sideways choppy patterns should start to happen.  In the end, it’s all about where we start our wave counts from and our perception of what an idealized chart should look like. 

The younger speculators have no clue on what’s coming, as many think this is a generational bull market that will never end.  When players that speculate with Bitcoin are 34 years and younger, why would any investor want to sell the Nasdaq at record highs?

Bull market peaks are the breeding grounds for bear markets, and it matters little what or if,  any fundamental news turns out to be the trigger. 

Mini Nasdaq 100 Intraday Quadruple Record High

Since my last update, the Nasdaq managed to push higher, but only by about 11 points. 6425 seems to be the number to beat at this time.  We also have a very small degree quadruple top, which can work like a small diagonal 5th wave., or another ending diagonal.

On other indices, this exact same impulse did not happen, and a diagonal wave must be used. This has happened many times before, but at this small scale nobody will notice or even care. 

What it can mean is another potential correction is coming, but how big of a correction is uncertain at this time.  This market has dipped many times before, so we need a substantial correction, for the markets to not have enough time to make another record high in 2017. 

That point of no return may be at the 6000 price level, which is off the charts above.   The previous little 4th wave just will not be deep enough to make a difference. 

The SP500 is pushing higher, so it would not surprise me if the Nasdaq added on another record peak. 

Nasdaq 100 Intraday Keeps on Pushing Higher!

The Nasdaq soars to another record high. This latest bullish move started on the 15th of November, with the following rally developing as an impulse move. The Nasdaq reached 6414 and has now backed off a bit. Every new record high can also be followed by another correction. How deep any correction can go all depends how big of a degree we are ending at. Short term, anything can still happen, but long term I’m looking for a Cycle degree correction. Specifically a Cycle degree wave 4 correction,  with either a flat or a zigzag correction of one lesser degree. (Primary Degree) Technically speaking, it would be “One” move in Cycle degree, but three moves in Primary degree.

No Cycle degree triangle should develop as any major bearish move has to finish shortly after solar cycle #25 has started. There is not enough time, as 2021 could be a turning date for a very long bull market. In other words, what happen at the 2008-2009 bottom will happen again.  Some analysts feel we are going into a depression or that a 600 year bear market will develop. I doubt these Doom and Gloom predictions will ever materialize as the SC degree correction from 1929 to 1932, only took three years.

When  a Cycle degree correction only takes 3 years as well, I don’t consider it a big deal.

Nasdaq Intraday Correction Update

So far the Nasdaq  correction seems to be happening, or lets say anticipated correction. Its not a correction until the Nasdaq pushes higher one more time. This may happen by mid week.  Of course, if the 3 wave rally is all that we are going to get, then a triangle “D” wave could still play out.  I will keep this short as there is not that much I can add until this short term move gets cleared up. 

Nasdaq Intraday New World Record!

Here we go again as the Nasdaq seems to be the leader as it crossed to new world record highs. All the other indices seemed to be lagging in their quest to add another record high. Next week could be critical as we are approaching the new moon this Saturday. There is a chance we may not get the 4th and 5th wave if the present pattern is just an extended single zigzag.  The 20th of the month can also produce violent reversals, due to expiration dates of options.  Of course we never really know what the sensitive, emotional investor will do.  There can be more fundamental reasons than degree levels we have in the EWP, why markets go up or down. Frankly, markets  have a bad habit of ignoring fundamentals, which is very easy to confirm when we look at the 30’s depression and the 2009 bottom.

As long this Nasdaq refuses to die, there is no chance of Cycle degree wave 3 finding a permanent home.  

Mini Nasdaq 100 Intraday Update

The Nasdaq has already started to rally, which could mean that a correction has already ended. The entire move from the top down, can fit as a zigzag with this mornings bottom. What else is new! I can’t completely rule out further downside as a bigger bearish diagonal move can also still be in play. It may take until the end of the month before we know for sure, but a violent move sure can shorten the time it will take.

My expensive Gold/Nasdaq ratio was about 4:1 and a week ago we were at 4.94:1. This means a new record extreme where it now takes 4.94 gold ounces, to buy just one unit of the Mini Nasdaq.

Nasdaq, Another Record High

Our last record high in the Nasdaq 100 was 6350. After one day this record is still holding but jumping up and down anticipating a bigger correction may be a bit mature.  OMG, What else is new!   There could still be a  bullish zigzag left to go, and the only way that may not happen is if the Nasdaq keeps heading south.  On the chart above, we have about 4 potential patterns where the Nasdaq could stop, price wise. I’m not looking for a short term temporary bottom if  a Cycle degree wave 3 has completed.  Nobody can guess any Fibonacci retracement level, because we all have different wave counts.  At what price level is the Nasdaq bear market going to halt at, followed by an 8 year bull market?  Nobody will know for sure as everybody will have a different idea, of the degree level we are at in the first place. 

I assure you they are manipulating us to think in Supercycle or Grand Supercycle degree levels. The more fear they can manipulate us with, the more books they can sell.  This bullish phase has frustrated many of the early bears, and at this rate, we have to wait until the Nasdaq corrects well below the chart I have posted. 

The 2008 crash barely lasted a year, and that was a Primary Degree correction, so why should the next correction suddenly take decades or longer to play out. The last SC degree crash and bear market that followed, only took 3 years to complete.  Any Cycle degree correction could also take about 3 or 4 years, then that would be pretty normal from my perspective.  Right now the Nasdaq is still struggling at this small degree level, and we may know more by the end of the day. 

Mini Nasdaq Weekly Chart 2009-2017 Bull Market Review

This morning the Nasdaq hit another record high of 6334 but may still add on more points before another correction is due. One trend line is all we need as two of them will not fit well.  Look at the angle of the bull market, and how it cuts very close to a 45 degree angle, or corner to corner.  How long this market can keep gyrating without a major correction is uncertain at this time, but markets do have a knack of fooling us with surprise moves.  I like to catch as many of the surprise moves that I can but it doesn’t always work that way. 

From my perspective, I have a clear vision of a single idealized wave count, and I use this idealized picture as my reference point, for all the different simple corrections that we may find. Most of all it is important to eliminate 2 of the corrective waves, but also to get the highest degree of this correction.  This helps in keeping all wave positions within Cycle degree, so we don’t  end up with the  SC or GSC degree forecast. Unless all Cycle degree peaks are found we can’t move forward into the next highest degree. 

The Nasdaq is about the best forming impulse wave, when compared to the others, but any 5th wave can be very choppy due to diagonal wave structures.  In 2016 we did have an expanded “B” wave top pattern, and it did not let us down as another leg up materialized.

Then from 2016,  the bull market started to go crazy which works best with extending the last 5th wave in Minor degree. It makes wave 1 and wave 5 about even, with wave 3 still being the longest and the extended wave. 

Harry Dent, who is just a book writer says the DOW will fall to 5000. When we actually go look we can see there is nothing down there, but it would take us back to 1996 price levels.  1996 coincides with the end of solar cycle#22 and the start of solar cycle #23, which just kept the bull market going. 

Now if the Nasdaq were to fall along with the DJIA then the Nasdaq could fall to 600-700. Again, there is nothing down at the 1996 price level to support anything,  so I know those numbers are arbitrary numbers,  picked out of thin air. Manipulating the masses with fear is very normal as it sells books. 

All this can take the next 3-4 years to play out and to surprise us again, the Nasdaq could stop well short of the 2009 bottom, before a brand new bull market starts with the start of solar cycle #25. 

I checked the Gold/Nasdaq ratio and it was 4.94. It took 4.94 gold ounces to buy one unit of the DOW, which is the most expensive ratio I have recorded in the last few years. The record expensive Gold/Nasdaq ratio I have,  is about 4.  To get real cheap this ratio would have to get closer to 1.18 again. 

November, 1, 2017 Nasdaq Another Record High Review

This morning, even the Nasdaq joined in, establishing another world record high. This time we topped at the 6284 price level before it started to reverse.   Not having double or even triple tops, sure helps in finding a location to start from. This still doesn’t rule out any small degree expanded pattern that may be lurking in this pattern, but if that is the case then a floor on the price level must happen.  This could happen at the 6200 price level or a bit lower, but it can’t retrace all of the October rally.

Today is the first day of a new month and stocks all seemed to have reacted at the same time. It doesn’t always happen so exact, but it’s about as close to the end of the month we can get. 

As I post the markets are still heading down, but there is no sense in arriving at conclusions too early. I just looked at the Nasdaq from the 2000 peak, and without a doubt the Nasdaq is walking to a different drummer. I will stand by my perspective that a Cycle degree wave 3 peak will eventually form, which would synchronize the Nasdaq with the DJIA and SP500 much better than it ever has. How long that will last is anyones guess, as the Nasdaq may never break any new record lows below that 2009 bottom. 

The biggest bull market since the depression eventually will come to an end, and all we can do is track every new record high. 

All bottom gaps in the VIX have been closed off with $9.80 being our present base. 

In the long run the Nasdaq should also develop a Cycle degree bottom, but in the short term we need a bit more clarity than what we’ve been getting. 

Nasdaq Hits Another Record Intraday High!

We can now add 6250 as another new world record high to the Nasdaq long streak. It just keeps going and going just like the Energizer Bunny in commercials. 

Yes, there could be another record high, but each new high is also the time for another correction.  It looks like five waves have formed, but a long zigzag will also work at this time.   So many times, a decline has started after which it soared again that it is better to be cautious, than calling for an imminent crash. 

I will not be a happy camper until at least the October low is completely retraced.  Many turnings can happen at the end of the month as well, so late this week we may know more.

 Stock Market Optimism Approaches Days of Roman Empire | Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International also sees the very bullish mood which they compare to the heights of  the Roman Empire. I will not go that far as the degrees are very different. It suggests that EWI is thinking about any top higher than SC degree. I firmly believe that we are closer to a Cycle degree wave 3 top than any other degree we can come up with.

Once again, I’m sure any higher degree wave count will not give them a price bottom and they will miss the start to another major bull market. Any wave analyst that starts a wave count of 5 waves in Primary degree will be wrong, just like they were in the 2008-2009 market bottom.

Everybody loves stocks right now, which is a complete reversal from the bearish mood the majority had in 2009. It has now taken well over 8 years, but we are also at a 10 year peak to peak record high with all the other indexes except for the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq has major different tops which may be due to the fact that an invisible expanded top may have happened in 2000. 

Stocks have become more synchronized with each other so that makes for a good case for a worldwide stock decline.

This is a chart of the 6 biggest stock markets in the USA where 6 charts are used. Any major Cycle degree decline could push charts well below the 2011 lows. 

Any big bearish phase may last until the 2021 time period when sc#25 starts to crank up again. 

 

Nasdaq Crash Review

After an over night plunge the markets are heading back up as I post. Most of the time the Nasdaq can provide alternate wave counts, and in this case there are no double or triple tops that  we have to content with.  Markets are put on this earth to fool the majority as much as they can, as we know it is mathematically impossible for the majority to get rich.  Paper wealth is not real money as I’m sure a few billion went up in electronic smoke this morning.

I will keep the updates a bit short this morning as the counter rally has been very strong. Until this market keeps pushing south, we are not certain of any wave count we may come up with. Either way it’s a 1987 30 year cycle,  stock market reaction. Don’t get too wrapped up about this 30 year anniversary date, as markets are always changing. Also, there are many controls built into the markets where they would halt trading if panic ensues.

Nasdaq Intraday Record High And Reversal Update

This morning the markets slumped in early trading. Many times they call these types of moves”Profit Taking”, but in reality, most people lose chasing the bullish herd,  as stop loss orders get hit.  The entire bullish move from the September low has been a diagonal even though I did not label them as such this time. The Nasdaq also peaked a little later than other indices and a wave 1-2 could have finished as well.

Any new record high would instantly kill this bearish wave count, so, there is little room to wiggle around in. The VIX jumped all the way to $10.25 and has also started to correct. In the short term anything can still happen.  If we ever establish the highs for 2017 then these constant record highs will cease to exist. It then could take many years after 2020 before new records will even come close again. Years ending with a 7 can produce some wild rides as 2007 and 1987 have demonstrated.

Any anticipated correction is not going to last hundreds of years as even a SC degree correction between 1929 and 1932 only took 3 years. Another 3-4 year bear market would not surprise me.

Nasdaq Intraday Update: Soaring To New Records

Recently the Nasdaq fell behind in the great race for new record highs.  I was waiting for this to break, and sure enough, this morning the Nasadaq joined  the rest of the pack, by creating another record of 6040. I’m sure this could get broken again by the end of the week.  Diagonal waves dominate the Nasdaq and many other indices so we are hard pressed to find a decent set of 5 wave impulse sequences. The Gold/Nasdaq ratio has stayed around the insane ratio of 4.74. This means it takes 4.74 gold ounces to buy one unit of the Nasdaq. The higher the ratio the more expensive the Nasdaq is when compared to gold. 

One day in the future, I’m sure we will get to an insane ratio where the Nasdaq becomes very cheap when compared to gold, and we get news of insiders buying stocks. If this situation presents itself when solar cycle #25 arrives, then we have 3 major indicators that would tell us that the bear market is over. 

Of course the bear market has to start first, before all this can happen. Short term the Nasdaq can join the rest as 2017 seems to be the year of breaking records. 

Nasdaq 1998-2017 Elliott Wave Count Review

What we do know is that the Nasdaq walks to a different drummer compared to the other 4 indices. The main issue is that great looking 5 wave decline from the 2000 peak to the 2002 bottom. This sequence cannot fit into any present zigzag we may want to have, and the 2007 peak sure does not fit into a truncated pattern.  I sure don’t feel comfortable using the 2007 peak as a truncated pattern, but this 2007 peak fits well with all the other main indices I cover.

What it all means from my perspective is that we need several alternates going at the same time.  I also show a Megaphone pattern at this time, that may mean nothing in the long run. I would be producing false trend line expectations, if I use two parallel lines.  The question will remain, what is the most likely degree level and wave position, now forming in October of 2017?

The Nasdaq just finished a 6010 peak, with no guarantee that it will stop tomorrow or the next day.  A general guideline how deep the next bear market  can get is what we think is the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.  This would be that the Nasdaq can retrace most all of its bull market since the 2009 bottom.  The first price level when the Nasdaq enters this previous 4th wave would be at about the 2000 price level. 2000 can be a happy even numbered target, as the markets just love even numbers.

I believe that the 2002 and the 2007 bottom of the Nasdaq represents a major base with the 2002 bottom crashing to the 1996 market lows. 1996 and 2008 are two solar cycle lows and if the markets ever cross both of these lows, I would be very surprised. It’s the markets job to fool everybody all the time, and it would not surprise me if the 2009 bottom never gets retraced by more than 100%.

This future 2000 price level would also come very close to completely retrace, the stock mania that started in 2011. Years ending in 7 can cause great turmoil in the markets, like it has done many times before. The VIX will also move as fear comes back into the market place.

The majority may only be expecting a short correction, but that will never happen if our degree levels are off by one degree.  There is a big difference between a Minor degree wave 3 peak or a Cycle degree wave 3 peak. Only time can eventually confirm a wave count, which may take until solar cycle #25 starts in the 2020-2021 time period.

So far the Nasdaq is one index that can give us a lot of grief.  Once the majority hates stocks again, but insiders are buying as a group, then we could see a surprise reversal back into a bull market.

Nasdaq 100 Intraday Record High And Decline Review

Since mid August the Nasdaq has performed an ugly 5 wave sequence, that I use as a diagonal even though the 4th wave didn’t overlap into wave 2 by any extend.  The top did truncate just a bit, but it fits better as a completed diagonally 5th wave zigzag. The September, 1 peak was about 6015 with only 1 point difference in the secondary peak. 

This is just the start of one decline which I started with the two smallest degree levels used from the degree list in the EWP. This can always be adjusted at a later date, but in the bigger picture I’m looking for a single zigzag that may tie into a Primary degree “A” of a flat. Sure, I would like to see the end of this bull market, but we still need to see more evidence to see if this bearish decline has the legs to keep running downhill. Most experts think this market will carry on heading north, as even Warren Buffett is about as bullish as I have ever seen him. Is he going to be more bullish after the Nasdaq corrects by 60-70%?  Who knows, as only time will help clear that up. 

Meanwhile the other 99% will get crushed once the Cycle degree correction becomes more obvious. At times my commentary will be very short when there is no earth shattering market moves. The September, 18th peak is where my bearish count starts from, but we have to see if another false bottom sets us up in a bear trap. 

E-Mini Nasdaq Intraday Plunge Review

This morning the Nasdaq plunged, but has not broken any downside support just yet.  The Nasdaq would have to plunge well below 5840 for this bearish scenario to come true. There is still the chance that we could just be in a 4th wave correction, which could also break the 5840 price level.  

In order to help confirm that the Nassdaq is over on the bearish side, it would have to plunge so deep well below the entire chart we see above.   I will leave it open as a start of a diagonal move, where  any anticipated wave 3 decline could be just another zigzag.  

I was brave and started this count in Minute degree  and once it plays out we would be close to a wave 1 in Minor degree. 

The other indices I cover did not make such a  dramatic move as the Nasdaq has, so we have to keep our options open in the short term. In its history the  Nasdaq has marched to a different drummer so many times, so even now it could be leading the way. 

It’s only 3 months away from the 30 year anniversary date of the 1987 crash, so until that date has come and gone anything can still happen.  

Nasdaq Last Intraday Record High Review

I”m going to stick with the Nasdaq as it sure looks like it wants to lead the way right now.  Yesterday’s record high also produce a very small double top, which we have to decide if the second small peak is over on the bearish side already.  When I switch it to line type, then the secondary peak becomes a wave 2 top. This run could have ended this morning with another wave 1 bottom. 

Presently we would be in another wave 2 rally, but one degree higher than the Micro degree that I started with.  A 5 wave run in Subminuette degree,  would be the next sequence that would have to play out. Of course, anything can go wrong thinking a set of 5 waves ahead, as all this can form into another diagonal sequence very quickly.  Diagonals can throw any impulse type of a move, into disarray rather quickly when we don’t switch to zigzag wave counting. 

Short term, there should still be some upside left, but it too would have to run out of steam, and head south one more time. 

It is very important not to jump into a too high of a degree when starting off, as long term, it would throw the wave count out by a large amount. Most of the time we never know exactly what we are going to get so It is very important to rule out one or the other very quickly. 

The VIX seems to be holding up, but it has a 10 cent gap below present prices, which should get filled before the VIX goes higher. Either way, next month should prove interesting as investors contemplate running for the hills. As long as they are looking for gold, they can run all they want!  😀 

Mini Nasdaq Intraday Record High Review

The Nasdaq charged to new record highs again this morning. It has now started to back off, with a dramatic move to the downside. These are the types of moves, I like to see when a trend starts to change, but due to all the diagonal wave structures anything can still happen.  It is next to impossible to catch every single diagonal zigzag and it would be a waste of time labeling each wave separately. All we can do is recognize a 3 wave crash as soon as we can, because any 3 wave correction, will send any market higher.

So far the big dip is still very low and we want to see this move continue for the rest of the week.  The new record high on this futures chart is now about 5995, just shy of 6000. Both of these numbers have no special Fibonacci meaning, as the 5500 price level would. I will not be satisfied until the entire July rally is retraced. Of course, this market has to travel much further south, until the first leg of a bear market starts to show. Most of all major tech stocks that I have mentioned, calculated  extreme Gold ratio numbers, so it is not just one thing that makes this a bubble

Insiders have left this market in droves, back in May 2017, and only the emotional crowd is left pushing this market around. Once a bit of panic threatens the herd, then all hell can break loose, as the bears attack. Bear markets start when stocks are pointing straight up, they don’t start when a market is pointing down. By the time a 20% correction has taken place, it’s already too late to cash in.

As I post the market continues on its decline so that is a good thing. 

Mini Nasdaq Intraday Record High Review

Yesterday the Nasdaq soared to a new record high with these futures charts, and 5938 price level seems to be the last record high.  This top is critical to understand because one rather large degree may have ended, and a new sequence could be starting. Elliott Wave will make no sense if we don’t have a clue where the big wave counts  started or ended.   Especially with the Nasdaq, as back in 2009 it created a bottom very different than most all other indices that I cover. 

Many times I find that markets can turn close to the 10th and 20th of a month, with today being extra special as we are on the last trading day before a new moon. Sure, moon cycles don’t always work, but at times I have seen dramatic turnings close to these time periods.

Any ending  wave count may not be the real top, and the only thing we can do is try and catch our own bear traps, as soon as possible.  For the entire bull market I tried to catch false bottoms even when the wave counts were as clear as Mississippi mud! 

There may be a chance that the Nasdaq will not break to a new record high by the end of the day, as we need this Nasdaq to go much lower to give us a clear sign that a turning has taken place. Eventually, it has to shock the majority of participants how deep his market has declined. The idea behind Elliott Wave is not to be shocked, if we talk about the bigger trend on a regular basis. 

Big popular stocks have also seen record overbought price highs, like AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, and others. Most of these single stocks have extreme Gold ratios, including the Nasdaq itself. 

Mini Nasdaq 100, Soaring To New Heights!

At one time the Nasdaq was lagging behind all the other indices, but it has now impressed us by catching up and soaring to new record highs. Many of the big name Nasdaq stocks have been creating record highs, on a consistent basis, but these stocks are all in the nosebleed section already. Netflix is also on that list, as it shows a P/E ratio of 224. Most ignore P/E ratios as they only care that it keeps going up. I like the Gold/Nasdaq ratio, which sits at 4.78. It now takes 4.78 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Nasdaq, which is the most expensive ratio since late 2016. The cheap ratio will be closer to 1.18.  

Since the 2009 bottom the Nasdaq has displayed a better fitting impulse wave than the others, so an expanded pattern is hard to justify at this time.  Since the 2016 bottom, it seems like the 5th wave is very strong, but don’t let that fool you, as insiders have been unloading their own stocks as the analysts keep hyping the bull market. 5th waves are never fundamentally strong in the stock markets, as bull market fundamentals start to crack during the 4th wave correction.  The majority of expert wave analysts, ignore this well known fact, because they have no problem extending 5th waves for 2-3 generations at a time. 

There still may be a bit of a pop, but this sequence seems to be coming to an end. The June low is the price level to beat,  but we need it to go low enough, so it can no longer recover and charge to new record highs, before the end of the year. 

Nasdaq Intraday Bullish Phase Review

The Nasdaq is a good example how violent the moves can be. The Nasdaq traveled about 30 points past my  previous top  trend line, and  has a good chance of  still going higher,  trashing the diagonal pattern in the process.  We are talking about very small degree levels, because once we looked at the weekly Nasdaq chart, this pattern would be too small to even count. 

If the Nasdaq dips again, but starts to act like a correction is still happening,  then there is the possibility it could just break one more world record high.  I can paint you an alternate wave count especially for that late June decline, but would rather wait until this wave count no longer can work.

Any new bearish trend has to send the Nasdaq south, and produce higher lows along the way, otherwise we will be stuck at a “Permanent high”. That was the line of crap they feed to the masses in 1929,  but in today’s world they say the same thing, but with far more words like, ” this bull market is far from over” or they will go to great lengths how Apple will save the day and sell a zillion iPhones. 

Even now the VIX is rolling around just below that $10 price level, so it can come alive and inject some fear back into the markets at any time. 

Amazon is also ready to take a hit, but the exact time is impossible to nail down.

This Nasdaq rally could drag on into next week, because there may not be enough time this week to crash below that early July bottom.  Things can happen with stunning speed at these intraday levels, and those emotional day traders can cause a mini panic, when they pile on too many sell stops below present prices.

It would be nice if this gets sorted out and the markets show us a more convincing decline, but until then we can only look at smaller sections, and the pattern it may be. 

Nasdaq Intraday Update


This morning the Nasdaq spiked and then reversed very quickly. It looks like a nice run that can keep right on going to the moon, but emotions have a real problem of infecting others, when they are sealed in a space suit, so emotions going to the moon is not an option.  😯 

If the bigger bearish phase is in control, then it’s not rocket science that the Nasdaq has to fall below 5560. Of course, if you’re a climate scientist, then anything goes, until you’re caught manipulating the numbers. 

So far the Nasdaq has been leading the way on a sliding path heading south, in what could be a Cycle degree 4th wave correction. This Cycle degree could take until the 2021 time period to play out, as 2021 could be the start of  solar cycle #25. The last thing we should be at the start of any solar cycle is to maintain a bearish outlook. All bearish opinions and bearish wave positions at that time, will get terminated, just like what happened in 2008-2009.  2021 is also 89 years from the 1932 bottom, so from my perspective it has significant meaning. 

Looking 3-4 years ahead in the markets is never a certainty, but the only certainty is that the majority can never take advantage of it, when another major buying low presents itself. 

Mini Nasdaq Intraday Review

The last major high with the Nasdaq was back in early June 2017, and since then has started to make a bearish looking decline. In any diagonal decline short term rallies do happen, and they can be very violent moves. The top trend line points to a potential top where a bearish run can rally to, but to confirm that we are over on the bearish side, the Nasdaq would have to fall and create new record lows. Options expiration dates can hammer any stock market so this adds to the potential bearish scenario.

There is nothing strange that an index can lead the way, while the rest are still struggling just off record highs like the Russell 2000 and the S&P Midcap stocks.  I believe that ultimately stocks will see, a Cycle degree high,  or have already seen a Cycle degree top.  I will hold the placing of this Cycle degree wave 3 until we get further confirmation.  We have to wait until hopes of seeing a new record high in 2017 are reduced to a point, where they no longer have the time to rally to make a new record highs. 

With Apple and Tesla also taking big hits to the downside, and Microsoft laying off workers, then this all helps to make the bigger bearish case more realistic. 

Mini Nasdaq Intraday Crash And Rally Review

 

As the majority fuss over the DOW and the SP500, the Nasdaq has not made such a dramatic counter rally today. It is well below it’s June record high, and it should tell us soon if it wants to smash to new record lows. Lower highs give us an idea that a bear market has started, but the lower high pattern can be very deceiving, when a 4th wave is involved. I’ve not put back my Cycle degree wave 3 just yet, as I would like to see this market show us a more convincing bearish move, first. 

As much as an inverted zigzag is showing, many times they turn into diagonal waves, as diagonals are just zigzags connected together.  This all may smooth out over time, but that might be just too much wishful thinking at this time.