Tag Archives: Bitcoin

Bitcoin Power: Nasdaq Soars To New Record Highs

Many times I can’t help it,  but to look at this insane market from a science fiction perspective.   We have a Bitcoin mining driven induced mania, that could be putting a huge strain on the demands of electrical power. Without the Nasdaq or tech industry, there would be no Cyrptos, as most of the high flying Bitcoin mining stocks are in the Nasdaq. Ask yourself, “Will these Bitcoin miner stocks keep going up while the Nasdaq crashes?” More and more stories are coming out about the huge power requirement for Crypto mining operations. It’s  getting to a point where you have to build a small nuclear reactor attached to the mining rig for power and cooling demands.  Even the demand for coal for power generation has increased.

The next thing we may read about is that, “97.5% of experts agree Bitcoin mining is the cause of global warming”. They blame the industrial revolution caused global warming, yet a Bitcoin mining revolution draws more power, than the entire industrial revolution ever used. They say that even coal demand is driven by Bitcoin mining. Coal was also used to power the industrial revolution, so what’s the difference today?

Coal Is Fueling Bitcoin’s Meteoric Rise – Bloomberg

How Energy Investors Are Getting In On The Bitcoin Boom | OilPrice.com

One day the grid will get overloaded,  triggered by some wild CME from the sun. Many Bitcoin mining operations would come to a grinding halt including many electric cars and trucks.

The Stunning Energy Cost Of Tesla’s Semi-Truck | OilPrice.com

When a new record high is in the making, then I look for a potential correction to materialize. Another correction in a bullish phase can’t go that deep as it would then break out through any trend lines. At a minimum the Nasdaq would have to crash below the 6250 price level, but getting there may not be that simple as this market refuses to die.

Cboe Bitcoin (USD) Jan 2018 The First Few Days

This Bitcoin futures chart is just a few days old, and it would take weeks for the patterns fill out better. I don’t plan on making Bitcoin as part of my regular postings, but I will comment on Bitcoin about it’s mania status. I made a big mistake starting with a large degree sequence, as Elliott Wave doesn’t work that way. We have a wave zero starting location back in 2010, and we have a maximum of 5 waves in Minor degree.  Even then we may only be in a wave 3 of Minor degree, if it does not implode in the next few weeks.

They figure there will be close to 500 different ICOs (Coin offerings)  by the end of this year. This makes the dot.com bubble of 2000 look pretty tame, when compared to Bitcoin. The only reason Bitcoin is this high is because miners are hoarding Bitcoins.

The Inside Story of Mt. Gox, Bitcoin’s $460 Million Disaster | WIRED

I lost my Bitcoins when raiders hacked the Mt Gox exchange, and I see the same things happening today. Bitcoin bank robberies, hack jobs, and stealing wallets does not work well as an investment platform. I have calculated $3500 price drops in just 4-6 hours, so nobody in their right mind would hold a so called asset class with this much instability. The futures contract above (XBTF8) has seen low interest, as smart futures traders are staying away. 

Bitcoin charts with this contract is different than the Bitcoin charts I have been using as Bitcoin prices from the Coindesk site is heading for another record high.   

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio from about a year ago has surged from about 4:1 to a stunning 14:1 ratio. As of today it takes 14 ounces of gold to buy one Bitcoin. This may even become more insane in the weeks to come. 

Bitcoin: Elliott Wave Zero

So you think it’s a good time to invest in Bitcoin? If you are, then consider the fact that you are getting in after about a  7 year bull market has already played out. In July 2010 Bitcoin started at Wave Zero, and within 7 years has soared about 285,000% or more.  

At this time Bitcoin prices have double topped at about $17,000 US dollars. The big question is, where does this Wave Zero fit into the bigger Elliott Wave sequence?   At one time I used Intermediate degree to count out Bitcoin, but I realized that this was far too high of a degree level to start with. Using too high of a degree, when complete corrections only take 4-10 hours does “Not” fit into any Intermediate degree time scale. 

Even the DJIA took a year or so to finish an Intermediate degree 4th wave correction, so why should the same degree only take hours to play out in the Bitcoin charts?  The plain and simple answer is, it can’t. Bitcoin has to start at a much lower degree level, at a minimum by at least 2 degrees. 

In other words, we could just be in a Minor degree wave 3 top, and Intermediate  degree wave 1 is still far away. $3000 price crashes in just hours does not fit an Intermediate degree move. The 2014 peak would fit better as a wave 1-2 in Minor degree. I show this chart to people  when they ask me about Bitcoin, and I always ask if it is smart to get into Bitcoins with a vertical chart  like this? 

Updated December 10

 

I thought I would add a candlestick perspective to Bitcoin. It’s a big mistake to think that Bitcoin is on some higher degree level if we don’t consider that Bitcoin started with a wave zero at about 6 cents.  At this posting Bitcoins double topped at about $17,000 is still holding, so if another leg up is to still to come, then the $17,000 price level will not hold. 

This Bitcoin Mania could have already popped which would mean “No More” highs will be coming.  A dozen other Crypto currencies are starting up, and none of them are accountable to anyone. It’s all private money and many are speaking out against this Bitcoin craze! 

The problem is that players in a mania don’t recognize they are in one, because if they did, they would have sold out last week. Greed keeps the players locked into a bull market, until panic sets in.  When the miners or hoarders start to dump Bitcoins all at once, then that $13,000 baseline will not hold. 

As far as I understand there over 16 million Bitcoins made, with a maximum target of 21 million.  This gives the Bitcoin market a 258 billion dollar capital base. Of course, once this Bitcoin bubble does pop, you will see all those billions go up in smoke. If you’re real lucky,  you might find them in the digital pit of hell! 

December, 8, 2017 Bitcoin Mania Review

 

Trying to put a wave count to Bitcoin is an exercise in futility. The main reason is that the wave degree levels I’ve been using was far too large. Some of these wild Bitcoin moves are happening in 4-10 hours. One move Bitcoin dropped $3000 in just 10 hrs. Any 10 hour time period is not an Intermediate degree by any stretch of the imagining, so I dropped my degree levels a minimum of 2 degrees. My highest degree level now starts at Minute degree. 

Besides the degree level not even being close, there is another problem with the charts. In the downloaded chart above, we have two peaks with one peak ending just a bit above $17,000 per Bitcoin. This pattern is not what we see in real time on the charts, and it’s another reason why any wave counting is futile.  

 

This chart I clipped from Coindesk, and we can see a double top at $17,000. Everyone knows what a double top can bring, but it will not take too long to see if this double top will hold. My interest in Bitcoin is purely the crowd psychology aspect of it and all the wild stories about Bitcoin losses and robberies. The Bitcoin world is like the “Wild, Wild West 2.0” as every boom cycle attracts all the crooks and scammers as well. This has happened in every mania, I ever looked at, so it’s nothing new from my perspective.

Bitcoin is part of the bigger tech bubble, no different than the tech bubble of the late 1990s. I’m sure Bitcoin will go down in history as the all time greatest mania, ever!  The wild stories coming out about Bitcoin robberies, and massive data overloading, has shut down or crippled Bitcoin trading sites. Online wallets going missing, hard drives thrown away, does not sound like a system that is stable.

Bitcoin miners are hoarding Bitcoins, and they could decide to sell all at once. You can be certain that when they all do decide to sell, the price of Bitcoins will not remain where it is today.   

Money, or Bitcoin is just a medium of exchange, a tool to measure something to a piece of paper. That’s just like buying a bunch of plastic rulers, thinking they are an investment. Dozens of private Crypto currencies are coming out, with talk about the Fed issuing “Fedcoin.

Search the internet and you will find this world full of bubbles and manias, which is the most I have ever witnessed.

In the big scope of things we need a huge market correction to wipe out much of this delusional thinking, that is gripping  speculators in late 2017.    

Bitcoin Another Record High At $12,230

I couldn’t help myself but to create a wave count as well.  The specific wave degree may not be the right one at this time, but what followed the “ABC” crash was a diagonal pattern. These diagonals happen in 5th waves, so we have a good understanding where we are, in an Elliott Wave sequence. Just in case there is more upside to come, I used a Primary degree wave 3 as my top. This top hit $12,230 but we have to see if it will hold.

Normally any correction can take Bitcoin back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which puts the $10,000 price level back in the cross hairs. Anywhere between $11,000 and $10,000 would qualify as the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.

Sometimes it can even go under the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which would be below $9500! Any more than that and we could be looking at a complete bust of this Bitcoin Maina.

 

The chart above may be a bit old, but Bitcoin already qualifies as one of the biggest bubbles ever!

Horror stories come out, like the one guy losing millions when he tossed his hard drive.

Bitcoin: Man who ‘threw away’ $140m wants to dig up landfill

Gold company’s stock jumps 1300% after switching to bitcoin | MINING.com

In 2000 gold companies switched into the internet craze just before the markets crashed, and gold soared. Now they are doing the exact same thing. One thing that the Bitcoin crowd does not understand, is that Bitcoin is “NOT” gold. Bitcoin has “NO” intrinsic value.

Right now they are hoarding Bitcoins but the day will come, when the Bitcoin miners start to dump Bitcoins!


Updated Dec, 7, 2017

Bitcoin just keeps on breaking record highs, blasting past and wave count I had.  Our last Bitcoin price was about $15,914.  It is a silly notion when we think that we can pick an exact bubble top. Bitcoin has now started a bit of a correction, but we know not to trust for this price level to hold.   There is a plethora of digital cyrpto currencies coming, so the markets will become swamped, with privately issued money. Even the US government is talking about issuing their own Cyrpto currency. (Fedcoin)

Anybody can buy a Bitcoin Miner and if it contains the right card, you may be lucky to mine one or 2 coins a month.  Majority of Bitcoins are hoarded, and the miners will one day, try and dump them all at the same time.

The Toronto real – estate  scene is a prime example, how people want to dump their holdings all at the same time.  2017 sure looks like the “Year Of The Bubbles”.  In all of  history I have never heard about so many bubbles being active all at the same time.

There is talk about Bitcoin futures, which should give us some better charts,once they come out.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio achieved 12.77:1 today. This means it takes 12.77 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin. It used to be that you could buy 2 Bitcoins with one ounce of gold just a year ago.  That is a dramatic change already and that ratio can keep expanding.

Bitcoin Crashes The Nasdaq On November, 29,2017

 

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At $10,000 I was very bearish on Bitcoin. Bitcoin blew past $10,000, and peaked at about $11,000 before Bitcoin made a dramatic reversal.  Block Chain servers were overloaded and many trades could not be executed. 

Bitcoin plunges $2000 after wild record ride past $11000 – bitcoinmining.shop

Biggest Crypto Exchanges Hit by Delays With Demand Surging – Bloomberg

Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: A Rally, a Rout and Outages on the Exchanges – Bloomberg

“Demand” surge?? It’s more like being locked out and not able to execute any orders at all. I will not spend the time keeping any wave count on Bitcoin, as it moves extremely fast. It is valuable in that Bitcoin is faster, more like running in “Fast forward”  You can bet robots and algorithms had a lot to do with this crash, even though they scan for robots on many sites. 

Today’s low in Bitcoin was close to $9000,  and I’m sure more losses are to come as the rallies in Bitcoin remain bearish. Billions of Bitcoin dollars went up in smoke, fleecing the Millennials in the process.

 

At the “exact” same time that Bitcoin imploded on November, 29, 2017 the Nasdaq imploded as well. The other indices ignored the Bitcoin and Nasdaq crash and they continued to soar while the Nasdaq was trying to find its footing. The tech sector has the most to lose if the Bitcoin world or Cryptomania can’t mine Bitcoins anymore. 

Bitcoin Still Breaking Records!

If we want to see a “Mania” then look no further than Bitcoins insane price swings. A new record high of $7454 for one Bitcoin is not normal as nobody in their right mind can do business with an unstable, impossible to touch Crypto currency. Sure, you may see some pictures of Bitcoins but they are not real. 

My opinions about Bitcoin is that it will end just like any other mania will end. It takes large  computer server farms to create Bitcoins and they need massive amounts of cooling water to keep running. It’s getting to the point where creating bitcoins are causing climate change due to the fossil fuels the servers need to keep going.  

It is costing more and more to mine Bitcoins and becomes less profitable. Bitcoins price must keep going higher to justify spending money on maintaining the servers.  Once Bitcoin miners wake up to this fact, Bitcoin will fall and not get up. 

How much would it cost to make Bitcoin worthless? Less than you think…

Is Bitcoin Mining Still Profitable? | Investopedia

28 Barrels of Oil to Mine a Single Bitcoin

 

 

Bitcoin And Tulip Crash Review

Dimon calls bitcoin ‘a fraud’ and may have delivered the biggest blow to the digital currency – MarketWatch

Bitcoin Crashes After Chinese Exchange Says It Will Halt Trading – Bloomberg

‘Dr Doom’ Faber says Trump is killing the dollar — and that’s why people are diving into bitcoin – MarketWatch

 

Those who have been speculating with Bitcoin are now experiencing a crash in its price. Bitcoin topped out on September 1st at $4950. In just a few weeks they say that Bitcoin shed $20 billion. $20b just disappeared in a puff of electronic smoke. At least when the Tulip bubble burst you could still eat the Tulip bulbs. In the book, “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”, they cover the Tulip Mania very well. At one time I tried to convert a single Tulip to grams of gold to see what a Tulip would be in todays prices, but I gave up after a few weeks of trying.

Tulips or Bitcoin, any bubble will burst when emotional people are involved, and right now the focus is on Bitcoin. The one year chart above does form a very nice Elliott Wave pattern with a potential 4th wave between $2000 and $3000.  At a previous 4th wave we would generally find support, but this is too optimistic, as crashes can go well below the previous 4th wave.

Before you know it, this Bitcoin chart will be back to being a flat line again. Some are betting that Bitcoin will still fall under $3000, but who says that Bitcoin will resume any bull market at all after it crashes?

On that September 1st peak the Gold/Bitcoin ratio hit 3.73:1. It took 3.73 gold ounces to buy one invisible Bitcoin. In early 2017 this ratio was compressed to  where it only took 1.14 gold ounces to buy one single Bitcoin. Could this happen again? Sure it can and it may stay like that forever.

Hacking Coinbase: The Great Bitcoin Bank Robbery

Bitcoin: Hacking Coinbase, Cryptocurrency’s ‘Goldman Sachs’ | Fortune.com

 

 

 

 

The Bitcoin Mania: Has The Bubble Popped?

 

The Bitcoin Mania seems to have gone vertical, but has now backed off substantially. In no way, shape or form, would I agree with Bitcoin being an investment, as there are just too many things wrong with it. 21 million coins will not cut it for Bitcoin to go mainstream. There are many competitive E-currencies coming out which I think most of them will fail as well.

I do not have the time to create detailed wave counts for Bitcoin charts as  it is not an asset class, and has no real correlation to other assets. In May on about the 25th, Bitcoin peaked at about the $2766 price level, and has now proceeded to crash in what looks like a clean impulse wave at this time. Bitcoin prices seemed to move at extreme speeds, and it still has to fall well below $1600, before any bottom could happen. It would not surprise me if Bitcion eventually fell below that $1000 price level.

Since we  have no real Bitcoin coinage to touch and feel, you are paying the price of an invisible electronic dollar.

It is next to impossible to figure out if Bitcoin is cheap or expensive, and it would be a good idea to create a Gold/Bitcoin ratio. I have started one, but need to do more calculations to get a better picture.

In July, 2016 Bitcoin was low in price, when we could buy 2.74 Bitcoins with one gold Troy ounce.  With the recent top it took 2.74 Troy ounces of gold, just to buy one Bitcoin!  This is a very dramatic shift in the Gold/Bitcoin ratio.

Another interesting point I noticed, was that Bitcoin crashed exactly on the new moon date.

I only posted this because Bitcoin is in the news, and intense news usually can give us a major top.