Tag Archives: Bear Market

Mini SP500 Intraday Record Top Review And The Impending Bear Market.

The SP500 topped out on September, 20, 2017.  The last record high price I have is 2507 before the SP500 started to turn down again. We’ve had so many of these record highs, I don’t waste my time counting them all. The little move down is nothing in the big scope of things, but we will see if a bearish wave count can be maintained. There are too many overlapping waves which makes the September rally an ending diagonal, with a 5th wave extension.

Many analysts were expecting a bearish September, but instead this market has given us a 2 month rally. Still, we need more downside evidence to help confirm the next bearish phase. There is an open gap below at the 2460 price level, with 2415 supplying temporary support. 

As I post the SP500 has been on a rally with some vigor, so it would not surprise me if another record high gets created. This constant breaking of new record highs will stop, once the SP500 and many of the other markets have flipped over to the bearish side. 

Sometimes the markets would stop dead for hours before moving again, which makes it about as exciting as watching paint dry!  😎 

As much as I see the majority being in a giant bull trap, does not mean that this bull market will not go down without a fight. I will maintain my bearish mood even though the markets could still move higher. 

Friday, April, 7, 2017 Intraday E-Mini SP500 Bullish Review

 

Many of the mainstream reported that stocks took a big hit after the missile strike launched by President Trump. Upwards of 59 cruise missiles were launched which makes it a pretty big strike.  The markets were already in a bit of a rally, and now it just added some more.  Looking at this bullish move, the participants brushed of the fundamentally bad news,  and spiked higher.   On a spike like this the sell stops will be piling up below present prices, which can get triggered pretty easy. 

Right now we are just a bit above a small double top which I sure can fit into a potential expanded flat in a 4th wave position.  Markets may just reverse at the end of the day,  or it may take early next week before it will reverse.  

The SP500 had a 24 month high bullish consensus report, with last week still showing 66% bulls present.  Insider selling, smart money and dumb money positions,  give us a big clue that this market is going to go down and not up.  

Mini SP500 St Patrick’s Day Review

 

I have changed my degree levels where Minute degree will be the largest the level right now. The DJIA has also made the move up in the last couple of days, but had a “B” wave bottom much deeper.  What matters now is that the markets don’t charge up to a new record high again, but starts to make another leg down. This leg should retrace all March lows by a wide margin. 

Yes, I talk about price many times, but from my perspective, the price is never the main factor in determining a wave count. The majority uses price action, exclusively and even EWI has said that, “the only thing that can confirm a wave count is price”. I believe it is the patterns that dominates, and if we don’t get the pattern right then all the price forecasts in the world will not do us any good.

In the short term, I would like to see the SP500 retrace its tiny rally as soon as possible, which will give us the extra bearish push,  to start confirming that a bigger bear market is coming.

In a recent posting by Steven Jon Kaplan  , he talks about the impending SP500 bear market with some price targets. The description he uses fits into my Cycle degree bear market with amazing accuracy, and I would not change a thing except for a bit of time and price adjustments. 

If the SP500 eventually crashed to 800 then that would fall far short of the 2009 bottom. I have mentioned that this could happen many times before, even in Cycle degree.  For a non wave counting contrarian Mr. Kaplan has already described the next bear market, before anyone even knows what’s going on. 

If you think this is luck, then think again, as I have witnessed him forecasting like this many times before. Mr Kaplan had the 2009 bottom figured out while wave analysts were still wasting their time making numbers and letters.  My bet is that the next major bottom the wave experts will be wrong again, as they seemed to love pushing those high degree wave counts at us.

Any, time projections I used,  can be adjusted for the late 2020 time period, and price action can be, SP500 799,  instead of 800!  It is irrelevant if the SP500 stops at 800 or 599, as a lower price does not trash a wave count.  By the time that happens there will be so many contrarian indicators flashing, “Buy”, signals that you will go blind from all the bright lights. 😎

E-Mini SP500 Intraday Rally Review: Just Another Bull Trap?

 

 

This SP500 did what I hoped it would do during the night session. Now we can see we have yet another vertical spike, which indicates one of two things. A correction is coming, or the downright end of a bigger trend.  I see it as an inverted zigzag and it fits very well into another wave 1-2.  From the bottom of February 2nd we had another “C” wave bullish move that alternates perfectly from the “A” wave bullish phase.

Gee, what can go wrong?  As much as I would like to see wave 3 and 4 happen, chances are good we will get yet another zigzag, heading to a new bear market lower low. If this is all turns out true, then it could take all of February to play out.

With this inverted zigzag I also bumped it up by one degree level, so from the end of January 2017,  we would have started a diagonal 5 wave sequence, in Minute degree. 

At 2263 we would have a perfect downside breakout setup, so when this happens, it will help to confirm the bigger bearish picture.  Any Inverted zigzag gets completely retraced, just like any regular zigzag would, so we have to have patience for this to get confirmed. 

There will be no support level, because we have to ask, “support for what”?  When the support hunters are out, then they are still thinking that they are in a bull market.  Every rally we will get will be a fake, and chances are good we would lose nothing but money, trying to catch some mythical bottom.  

This anticipated bear market can take until 2021 to play out, until solar cycle #25 has started. When this happens then you never want to remain bearish, as the start of solar cycles are bear market terminators. If the wave analysts don’t understand the solar cycles then they will miss every major bull market that will ever come in the future. 

 

US Dollar Intraday Wild Ride Review

 

 

At this stage of the game, I will no longer produce the wave positions leading up to the January price top of 103.820. 

One reason is to make sure we accept that a turning has closed, and that a new direction is in play. Every wave count has a start and a finish, and when we just blend all the turnings like nothing important happened, then we are oblivious to what is going on. Any wave count all depends on where we start counting from, just like we need to know where the countdown starts from. 

In the case of this US dollar chart, we have a pretty clear top, with a nice little spike included. Just today the chart produced another spike to the upside, after which the US dollar started to head back down. Two spikes in one month sure helps to make the bearish case for the US dollar.

Of course, my contrarian friend will be smiling, as gold stocks will be the main beneficiary of all this US dollar turmoil. From this point forward the USD bulls are all trapped, and many may not even know it at this time. Once the USD makes another new low, then they will start to clue in. This will only accelerate the decline of the US dollar. 

US Dollar Intraday Flash Move To New Record Highs!

 

 

Another great spike to a new record high, could put a cap on this US dollar bull market, but we have to be aware that a correction may still be taking place.  This may take the rest  of the week, before we know a bit more if this top will hold. So far it looks good and gold is already reacting to this for sometime.  It looks like 103.820 is one peak that needs to hold.   Gold may be heading into a correction, so anything is still possible at this time.

The US dollar will eventually slip into a bear market, and how deep that can go will depend on, if the past 8 years was a big fake bull market.  The radical choppy waves give us the biggest clues, which the majority just ignore. To them as long as it goes up, it’s a bull market!   

US Dollar Bull Trap Daily Chart Review

 

dxy00-nov-12-2016

 

This US counter rally is just a small version of stock mania. Stock mania bull attacks happen, but we need to watch three asset classes all at the same point in time.  Stocks and the US dollar are usally pointing up,  with gold and gold stock related assets pointing down.   This is also usally the time that these asset classes switch roles, which make for good powerful turnings.  My overall bearish stance on the US dollar has not changed at all since the elections.  I did not have to change any big outlook in all my wave counts, which is a good thing. We can call this anticipated bearish phase the president elect  Donald Trump “USD Put”, as he will get the blame for anything that goes wrong anyways. 

I’m sure you read the stories about US citizens crashing our immigration website, from people wanting to move out from under Donald Trumps policies.  Americans, running from their country leaders, is not what they are known for, besides, why would they want to move up here, when they can crash our website just from shear traffic?

With Obama they wanted change, and got the same old crowd with no change, with Hillary Clinton they wanted to keep Obama’s no change policy alive, but got a new president that will create massive fundamental changes in the next 4 years. 

There were no COT reports on Friday, but the last time I checked the commercials were still net short by a wide margin. This works like a road block to a USD bullish phase, and we can see that by the tripple tops we see on this daily chart.

Many may take these tripple tops as a potential breakout pattern, but this has not happened since December 2015, even though it has tried many times in the last 11-12 months.   

US Dollar Intraday Potential Bull Rally In A Bear Market!

dxy00-nov-4-2016

 

The US dollar has crashed to a new low in the last few days, but to get that new low, the US dollar crossed with a 3 wave pattern.  This happens many times, at the end of diagonal runs, or any place where expanded flats can take place.  In case of a triangle we would need another zigzag rally ending on a “C” wave top. A triangle may take too long, as we have 4 trading sessions left until the elections. This includes today and Sunday night.

At this time nothing suggests that the USD is going to soar to new record highs. I would suspect that the commercials added some long positions, but those COTT reports get released on Fridays and I need a some time to look them over. 

I may have to drop my degree level down one more degree with this decline, as we still have a long way to go just to get below that 93 price level.  

There are many that will never believe that the US dollar is in a bear market. We can tell by many analysts, calling for a “support” price.  Any support price they want to call, will never hold in the long run, as bear markets shred all hopes and dreams for a bottom.  Of course, those that have extreme bullish wave counts, will have their wave counts shredded as well.  It is next to impossible to make a very bullish wave count work, when the commercials are shorting your idea! 

In the long run, we are heading down an “E” wave in Primary degree, but this should comprise of 3 waves in Intermediate degree.  Every chance I get, I will try and give a good description of the larger wave counts that I need. This helps in the confirmation process, and eliminates or reduces many of the mindless wave counts, that the public seems to love!   The more shit they include in the charts the more readers seemed to eat it up. 

Nikkei 1990-2016, Mother Of All Bear Markets Review!

 

nik-oct-25-2016

 

On my old blog I had worked on the Nikkei many times as I think this huge looking Nikkei bear market is actually a triangle.  When I look back in time to the 1990 peak, I show a Cycle degree wave three top, which I have not changed in many years It still remains as a Cycle degree wave 3 today.  Just because it is a mega bear market does not mean we can suddenly turn it into a SC or GSC bear market.  

In fact the exact opposite happens as only smaller degree levels come out to make a wave count look bigger than it actually is.  Until this bear market is completed, I cannot label any wave count that is bigger than a Primary degree letter. Staying in the sequence is the biggest requirement when trying to figure out where we are.  

There is much more to this Nikkei bear market than meets the eye, especially when we look at the length of this in terms of years. I mentioned that 2021 could be another major low, but the Nikkei is already 26 years old and it looks like there is more to come before this Cycle degree 4th wave is completed.  By 2021 it would have lasted 31 years!  This matches very well to a 30 year cycle so 2021 could also be the end of this Nikkei bear market and US stock bear market.  

There is also a very unique coincidental wave count that I noticed, and that is the present “D” wave in the Nikkei matches our present “D” wave top with the US dollar.  This makes it very likely that the US dollar and the Nikkei will bottom about the same time and even with the same triangle wave count.  I have many Idealized triangles posted so it is just a matter of labeling them for a Cycle degree triangle. We also know from these idealized drawings what should happen once Cycle degree wave IV is located. 

I used monthly spacings for the chart above which filters out more of the little wild waves and highlights the important turnings a bit better.  

From the 2009 bottom the Nikkei sure did not follow the US markets, but made a very choppy 3 wave bullish move to the 21,000 price level. This move alone is enough to make us think another “bear market rally has finished”, which usally means a new world record low for the Nikkei, will happen. 

It also tells us that US stocks are not going to crash to some crazy DOW 1000 price range dating back to the 70’s.  

U.S. Dollar Daily Chart: Impending Crash Review

 

dxy00-oct-25-2016

 

This chart sure looks like the US dollar is heading north, but this could be a figment of the US dollar bulls imagination.  The real top could have been back in late November of 2015, and we have already been in a bear market since. Bear Market? How can that be when the charts are still pointing up? This is exactly what bear market rallies want you to believe so to keep you trapped and frozen in what to do next.  

Since early December 2015, I have shown a diagonal wave count decline which would extend the 5th wave dramatically, blasting past all support price levels below us. It would not surprise me if the USD got close to 85 or even 80 before it starts to slow down.  That would only get us to the (A) wave in Intermediate degree, and another USD bear trap.  

I’m bearish until the decline convinces the majority that it is going down. When they start to get convinced that they should get into gold and out of US dollars, then the market will do the opposite thing and the bulls will slash these Johnny come lately bears.  The markets will always act in such a way to constantly kick off the emotional investors, that have no business being there in the first place.