Tag Archives: Apple Stock

Apple Stock Breaks New Record Highs!

Last month, Apple’s stock chart started to go vertical and is now forming a spike. I use one trend line which touches close to 3 peaks, and now is on its 4th peak. All this under the anticipation of the iPhone X  release.  This is nothing new that hasn’t happened many times before. What’s just a bit different than any other time is that all major stock indices in the USA, are also at world record highs this past week.

Apple’s charts have diagonal qualities to them so I used zigzags with this wave count.  Sooner or later every bull market will start to act like nothing can take it down,  so investors feel “Safe” inside the herd of investors. The VIX confirms this, as it also crashed to another extreme new low price.  The Apple $200 price forecast is pretty common, but that is a safe forecast.

How deep or long of a correction Apple will have, all depends on the degree of correction, that we may see in the next few years. Any bottom trend line would be pretty useless as it would only touch one point while the top has 4 touch points. There are two major price bottoms of $89 and $55 which we can use, but they are just visible targets on the charts.

Insiders left a long time ago and they are not rushing in to buy. What really stands out, but few will ever know about or even use is the Gold/Apple ratio. The cash, gold price divided by Apple’s stock price, will give you the amount of shares you can buy with one gold ounce.

At this peak the Gold/Apple ratio has hit a record extreme of 7.5:1. This is the most compressed number since I have been tracking this ratio, and it shows how expensive it is when we use real money. Sorry, Bitcoin is not real money, it’s invisible speculation money.

Apple could be at a wave 3 top in Cycle degree as its ability to innovate are being hampered. At a minimum Apple could hit that $85-90 price level again, which is barely a 50% correction. The $150 and $140 price level also needs watching as that could supply short term support.

The only important support is the price that will kick of a new bull market, and nobody knows where that may end.

Harry Dent has forecasted a DJIA 5000 price level to come, and Apple is part of that. So when the big markets start to crash will Apple stock holders be,  “safe”? I doubt it very much.

Making a DJA forecast of 5000 means little if we can’t forecast the bull market that will be sure to follow. Besides, there is “NO” previous bull market support down at the 5000 price level.

Apple Another Record High Update

About a week ago Apple’s stock price peaked and then started to decline. We need more evidence just the same to help confirm that the Apple bull market is toast. There are so many gaps in the Apple charts that it borders on the side of being insane. Insiders sold out a long time ago, with other insiders selling the most in May of 2017. 

Knowing that insiders have sold should be the biggest red flag to not take Apple as a long term investment. Insiders sell high while the retail investors buy high. Buying high or chasing a bull market only works for people that have a short term time frame. Sooner or later the last greatest fool will buy the peak just before it crashes. This peak seems to be about $164 at this time. Apple has already backed off $10,  and I would expect much more just to get the bear market all warmed up.  

The 2015 to 2016 decline,  was a correction in Intermediate degree matching most of the big indices as well. I love Apple products, but that doesn’t mean that Apple can’t crash into a big bear market. More analysts were calling for $200 per share, but these forecasts are consensus forecasts. Consensus forecasts hardly ever come true, so most of the time I use them as a contrarian indicator. 

The Gold/Apple ratio is at another extreme of 8.46:1 which makes Apple very expensive when compared to a Troy ounce of gold. Ratios are more of an objective look at the markets, and I try and calculate them regularly when I can. At this time I keep about 15 ratios on different asset classes and that is enough for me to handle. 

Apple is also heading for a Cycle degree wave 3 top, so any correction is going to take years not weeks or months. How deep Apple will fall is hard to tell right now, but it should fall well below the 4th wave in Intermediate degree that I show in the chart above. One Cycle degree decline is twice as large as an Intermediate degree, so we could see Apple fall to the Primary degree 4th wave sooner or later. 

For now we have to see if a further decline becomes a reality, and a 5 wave declining sequence is the best evidence we have that a bearish trend has much further to go. As I post the SP500 has also declined in a mini crash so that sure helps to make the bearish case on all stock indices that I cover. 

Updated

September, 23, 2017

Apple stock suffers worst product launch week of the iPhone era – MarketWatch

Apple Cycle Degree Review

I’m going to throw another Apple wave count at you, which many of the free members, may not understand. It is the dedicated few that have followed me for years that will have a better understanding when I talk about expanded patterns. The potential for an expanded top is always present, as part of any corrective wave, and I think Apples stock pattern can fit this bill with ease.

No, we are not going into some SC, or GSC degree bear market, as nobody has ever confirmed that those two degree levels have completed anywhere, since the market peaks in 2000. Any wave count will not make sense if we don’t know when one pattern ends and another pattern starts. In May of 2016 Apple created its lowest low and then started to soar pushing to a new all time record price of $156.

Isn’t this a No-brainer simple set of 5 waves up?  Well… Not after you take a closer look.  The entire rally lasted a bit over 12 months before it started to reverse.  The probability of a zigzag going to new record highs as part of an expanded pattern is real,  if we consider that a bigger diagonal force is also in effect. We do have perfect alternation between the A5 wave and the C5 wave, which is exactly what I like to see in zigzags.

The 5 waves leading to the “A” wave in Minor degree are far bigger than those little skinny 5 wave sequences that soared to new record highs. Zigzags like this can and do show up in any diagonal pattern, and we should always look for alternating patterns, between the two sets of 5 waves. 

Another zigzag may start of long and skinny, but then switch to bigger, overlapping set of choppy waves. This keeps us scratching our heads, wondering what’s going on.  The thing is we don’t always see them early enough, and even when we do see them, it’s hard to believe that what we’re seeing is actually real! 

I deliberately did not start the wave count going down, as it is easy to count as the start of 5 waves and wave 4 has just completed.  Since we have 4 short waves, the 5th wave could extend.  

My bet is that this starting bearish phase is another diagonal, where our present rally would be a wave 2 and not a 4th wave rally. This makes a huge difference in the count, especially if we need to decline 5 waves in Minor degree.

The horizontal lines are price levels, where 3 of the biggest gaps will get closed. These can all become temporary support in a bigger bearish phase. Apple’s price would eventually have to retrace that entire “A” wave bottom, after which we may land on an “A” wave in Primary degree.

The next bearish phase could all go sideways and down, with no clear 5 wave sequence decline. This would then send a signal that the big wave counts need another review.

Apple Record High Update

Last week the Apple stock price once again broke a new world record at $156.65, but has now backed off a bit from this extreme high. In a fit of madness we could see another record high, but the odds of that happening are becoming less  and less. Apple is also close to a  potential Cycle degree wave three top, after which we should expect a 3 wave bear market, of some type. Flat, zigzag, or a triangle is always one of our three choices, for any correction, but we have to do some Sherlock Holmes deductive reasoning, figuring out which pattern will have the best odds of coming true. 

A triangle is my last option, and a flat would be my first option.  Since I view all the markets from a Cycle degree perspective, we have to look to the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree,  to find a potential bottom for a Cycle degree wave 4. 

The May 2016 low is not the previous 4th wave  of  one lesser degree as  it may be way back in mid 2013 that Apple stock,  may have to correct down to. This is centered around another huge open gap down at the $55 price level.  Even before Apple can ever reach those bearish extremes, it  still has to crash through two huge open gaps first.  Those gaps may provide some very good reversal positions for a “B” wave rally, but we will not know until we get close. 

Sure, I love Apple products and do all my work and play with them, but that does not stop me from being very bearish,  in the longer term. 

The Gold/Nasdaq ratios have been hitting extremes, with the  Gold/Apple ratio also bouncing around at the extremes.  The Gold/Apple ratio sits at 8.20:1, which is a bit cheaper now, but this ratio has a long way to go before Apple becomes cheaper to the point it can become a long term hold again.

We need a very obvious mood change with this Apple chart,  and that happens when Apple makes an obvious move, pointing south.  

Is Apple Going For Another Record In The History Books?

 

 

The Apple price chart is only a few dollars away from breaking all time new record highs. It blasted right through the gap,  at the $130 price level, with another recent gap.  So the gap at $130 never really closed this time.  From the 2016 low we now have two major open gaps to think about, with a third gap way down at the $75 price level. I still may be too high with my degree levels, but this sure looks like a 5th wave bullish phase that is going for a blow-off.

The Gold/Apple ratio has gone insane just a bit more, and has now reached an all time ratio record high of 9.38:1. Jumping on this Apple bandwagon is just asking for severe punishment, as you could end up being the greatest fool holding another falling paper asset.  As I have mentioned in the past, any gold ratio is a more objective way of looking at stocks, but the world does not use objective indicators.  With the Gold/Apple ratio being this high it is insane to think that Apple is a good investment at these price levels.

The Apple chart looks more like Swiss Cheese with the amount of holes in it. Not until the Gold/Apple ratio starts to spread again, closer to 21:1 or so, when it “might” get ready for a lower risk investment. Of course, this is when Apple will be much lower in price, and we know how much the majority hate to buy low.  Most people don’t even know why they are buying Apple stock, because most only care that it keeps going up.

I’m sure there is a ton of sell stops below all present prices, and once they get triggered all the selling of iPhones in the world will mean nothing.

AAPL, Apple 2010-2016 Primary Degree Review.

 

aapl-sept-25-2016

 

A few postings ago I had a vision that the Apple stock pattern may have ended. Something ended alright, but I think it was one degree lower in Primary degree.  I looked at it from the 2002 bottom with a diagonal perspective, due to the extreme choppy pattern  of the waves. It started with the Flash Crash Of 2010.  The first peak in 2012, is now my “A” wave in Intermediate degree. The second peak in 2012, is an expanded “B” wave top, followed by a bear market, (or bull market correction). From the 2013 bottom Apple started to go into a bullish phase that seemed to have topped in mid 2015, along with many other indices. I did not have room to draw in the highest degree at the 2015 top, but it is now a wave 3 in Primary degree.

Our present so called bear market, would actually just be a bull market correction.  There is no way of knowing exactly what location we are at, at this time, but this is where we start the process of eliminating what will not work. All three of my corrective patterns can still be in progress so this will take time to sort out.

One thing is certain this AAPL chart would have to point down when this correction gets close to finishing again. Right now I’m working Apple as a single zigzag but this can also develop into a triangle.   Apple is a great company, but that does not mean that it can never develop a bearish phase, where they all give up on it.  At the recent 2016 bottom, funds unloaded their shares as they though Apple was done for. Expert fund managers or hedge fund managers selling at a bottom is very normal, as they are doing the same thing as the retail investor does.  Of course stories about Warren Buffet buying Apple stock may have changed some fund manager’s minds. Buy, High and Sell Low, is what the majority does, which is the opposite of what any contrarian would think about doing.

All this helps to confirm that a 4th wave decline in the main indices can still be in our future.

I have to build a new gold/apple ratio to get the extremes, but right now we are sitting at 11.8:1 This seemed a bit expensive, so I checked against the 2013 prices when Apple was very low at the $55 range. This worked out to 21.8:1 on the cheap side.  If we get a gold/apple ratio below 9-10:1 then this would make Apple much more expensive. We need to take three or more readings to get a better picture of the extremes 

If this ratio spreads then Apple’s price is getting cheaper when compared to gold. I only use the gold futures cash price as my base, and I round it off a bit for simplicity’s sake. 

Apple, 2002-2016 Price Review From A Diagonal Perspective.

 

aapl-sept-21-2016

 

This is the second time I looked at the Apple bull market from a diagonal perspective. It is very easy to count out the chart using impulse wave labels, but obvious or easy waves are mostly a figment of our imaginations, especially if we are oblivious to anything diagonal related.  The 2002 would match the bottom of the market crash in 2002, followed by a zigzag bull market to top of 2007. Then this big crash of 2008 produced another zigzag which proved to be one of the best buying times in Apple, that may never be repeated again. At that time I saw Apple producing a potential correction, which did not jive  with any super degree wave counts.

From very late 2008, and a potential wave 2 bottom, it did not take long for the waves to start getting very choppy. It got worse after the 2010 Apple crash, after which the choppy waves really started to kick in. That move sent us to the second 2012 peak,  before Apple started another major decline. Everybody thought the Apple bull party was over, but Apple didn’t want anything to do with that, after which it started another leg up to the 2015 peak. 

This presently would put Apple in a 4th wave bear market, but bear markets are just big corrections to a higher degree. Needless to say I will be running Apple with a 2015 wave 3 Primary degree top.  I show a single zigzag decline, but this would make a major bottom far too early at this time. Apple would also have to keep the upward pressure going, if the 4th wave bottom has actually already completed. 

Any single “C” wave crash, would also produce a bigger spike to the downside which it did not do in 2016. We sure got a wild spike at the mid 2015 bottom, but this could be an “A” wave. This still leaves Apple with three core corrective patterns that need to get trashed one at a time,  which will eventually narrow down our choices. 

I can still move my “A” wave peak to the early 2012 peak, which gives us an expanded pattern. I already counted it as an expanded top several times, so that would not be a stretch to do again.  

Anything from Apple’s early years seems to command top dollars in the collector world as the stock certificate story clearly shows.

Several of early Apple computers  also demand top dollar. 

AAPL, Apple Stock 2015-2016 Review: Bull Traps Bite!

 

aapl-sept-16-2016

 

If you notice I have pushed the Cycle degree wave 3 back in time to the 2015 peak.  This is the same as travelling forward in time, but we can only do it on paper.  I could be completely wrong with this wave count, but I have to run it, to make or break it. The first crash down into 2015 which ended on a big long spike could be the “A” wave in Intermediate degree I need. Then the counter rally, which ended up being another fake, was the “B” wave top in Intermediate degree followed by 5 waves down in Minor degree.

Now that works as a pretty normal zigzag decline for me, which ended in May 2016. Ever since then Apple has been on a rip roaring bullish phase, that has now gone vertical last week.   When charts go vertical they can usher in bear markets that will surprise us, especially if Apple starts to head straight down again.  We will hear the analysts screaming that support has been broken again, but price is only important if we don’t look at the pattern. 

The thing is, the bullish phase that started from the May bottom, only counts out as 7 waves, and it works as a 3-3-5 count as well. Something is going to happen soon!  Apple could crash or decline back down towards the $90 price level, and then turn in another “C” wave bull market, 5 waves long!  Those 5 waves, would be in Minor degree, but could terminate at the “B” wave top that I would be looking for. I like to joke that all wave counts are a myth created in our minds, like dragons were a myth back centuries ago. Until wave counts are confirmed nothing is as real as it seems.  

This is the second posting that I am working the Cycle degree wave 3 position along with the Russell 2000.  There may be more to come once I review the others again.  I can’t do that all at once, as I cover more asset classes than most. Single stocks are at the bottom of the list. Where Apple goes, the rest of the market is sure to follow and the fear of the lack of lineups at stores can be a bad omen pushed by conventional analysts. Going online and ordering is the reason why there were no line ups in this year’s iPhone release. What a silly ego statement it is to see people lined up for a mass produced product anyway.

The last thing I would be,  is bullish with this Apple pattern, so  investors are going to see how bad, bull traps can bite. 

Apple 2012-2016 Elliott Wave Count Review

 

I find it hard to believe that Apple would go up while the main indices that Apple is in, are crashing down. Apple is the big elephant in the room and chances are good that Apple stock is more of a leading indicator than a lagging indicator.  Apple would have to implode if we were already in the “big one”.  All the super bears are looking for a recession much worse than 2008, and all the SC and GSC degree wave counters are looking for their 5 waves down in Primary degree. Keep looking folks, as you will never find the great SC and GSC degree wave count. Those high degree wave counts are in the future by a few decades and in reality SC and GSC degree wave counters are  chasing dragons in a mythical world.  They created these high degree wave counts because many chart patterns have been “forced” into a higher degree. All it takes is one wave count that is forced and we end up slipping into a higher degree, when in fact it is in a much lower degree.

Every corrective wave for any degree must have a certain amount of wave patterns that must show up, otherwise we are not in the degree we think we are in.  This is not rocket science, but it is taken from the EWP book and the idealized wave patterns.  Simply put, if you have never seen or counted a 5 wave declining sequence in Primary degree, then it’s impossible for any of  the markets to be anywhere near a SC or GSC degree wave count.

 

AAPL-June-17-2016

 

I moved my 2012 peak up as this chart could have ended with diagonal patterns up, to the Intermediate degree wave three.  If I showed you just one degree higher, I would then be painting you a SC or GSC degree world. Of course, all the wave positions would have to be changed to keep the wave count in sequence.

From the 2012 peak Apple started a bearish phase, which came to a screeching halt in April 2012, with the secondary bottom coming a few months later in June. From my perspective the 2012-2013 decline was a bull market correction, as it was completely retraced by more than 100%. 

The differences between these two double bottoms is critical to understand as that started off another massive bullish phase for Apple’s stock price.  This 2012-2015 bullish run sure looks like an impulse, and it stretched (extended) allowing the smaller degrees to show up. The angle of the bull market also helps to see it as an impulse.

At the very top in 2015 we have a crazy pattern that I counted as the first part of an expanded flat, ending with a huge down spike in August 2015. Then we had a good rally into November 2015 before Apple resumed its decline which I am calling a “C” wave impulse. 

In May of 2016 AAPL hit another bottom at about $90, before it started to crank back up. In May of 2016 we could have hit a 4th wave bottom in Minor degree.  If this is the case, then Apple’s chart should still soar.  Technically it would have to soar and make all time new record highs. We have 3 huge gaps that are still open above our present prices and eventually, all of them will get filled again.  We could also draw a nice wedge for this bear market, which usually means a violent reversal can happen. 

Everybody treats the Apple chart like it is in a bear market, but from a Cycle degree perspective, it is just a big bull market correction.  The $90 price level has meaning as Apple has pivoted around this number several times before. Is Apple confirming that stocks still have a bullish phase in them, or are we going to use the excuse, “It’s Different this time”?

Even Warren Buffet bought Apple stock last month, so this also adds to the bullish case. It would be a wave counting horror show if we created a wave count, contrary to a successful contrarian.  🙂 

Quick Apple Update: Crashing Like A Zeppelin!

 

AAPL-May-15-2016

 

Apple’s stock chart has rolled over a long time ago, as the trend lines show.  If the markets are on a general Primary degree “C” wave decline, so why should AAPL not do the same thing?  In a bearish phase all the ugly news will become front and center,  so if AAPL continues south, then expect more bad news.  This will be news that the mainstream dream up, but recent news from the Apple Insider, sure still look good. Apple still dominates, and overall it is a good company. 

AAPL could be of the same type of a path as the general stock market is, but where and when it will bottom is next to impossible to estimate. With all the buy backs and stock splitting antics we could be dealing with new numbers that will stun us, in how cheap AAPL stock can get.  Going back to 2007, at what previous gully (bottom) is apple going to stop at.  Any expanded flat type move will definitely send AAPL back to record highs but we would go broke in trying to stay in to see that happen.

Until we hear news about insider buying, investing in this stock price, will be a disaster. I am sure we will see the $70 price yet, as a huge gap will be closed by then, and even $30 is not ruled out. 

Apple Bull And Bear Market Review 2012-2016

 

AAPL-May-3-2016

 

Single stock Elliott Wave Counts are not at the top of my list of things to cover, but Apple is inside the DOW and the SP500 and it will go where they go. Or is it the other way around, that Apple is holding up all stock markets from crashing.  For the last month, Apple has crashed in a near vertical decline which is much like a “C” wave would act.

Since the bottom of February I was counting it as a 4th wave, but now it would have to be called a diagonal 4th wave as it ran too far and started to overlap a bunch of important waves.   We have about 4 open gaps on the way down and they would eventually have to get filled again. Please do not take that as a sure thing as these gaps can stay open for a long time, as Apple may have to sink much further. 

That rally to the April top, insiders were selling all the way up while all the analyst recommendations were overwhelmingly a “BUY” rating.  This is nothing new as I have documented this many times with other stocks. No matter where this stock may go in the short term, it is only worth investing in, if the majority of insiders, are buying. 

When they do buy it will become public information, then you may have a chance of being on the right side. If this rally is short and goes sideways, then watch out as more downside will certainly come again.