Tag Archives: AAPL

Apple Cycle Degree Review

I’m going to throw another Apple wave count at you, which many of the free members, may not understand. It is the dedicated few that have followed me for years that will have a better understanding when I talk about expanded patterns. The potential for an expanded top is always present, as part of any corrective wave, and I think Apples stock pattern can fit this bill with ease.

No, we are not going into some SC, or GSC degree bear market, as nobody has ever confirmed that those two degree levels have completed anywhere, since the market peaks in 2000. Any wave count will not make sense if we don’t know when one pattern ends and another pattern starts. In May of 2016 Apple created its lowest low and then started to soar pushing to a new all time record price of $156.

Isn’t this a No-brainer simple set of 5 waves up?  Well… Not after you take a closer look.  The entire rally lasted a bit over 12 months before it started to reverse.  The probability of a zigzag going to new record highs as part of an expanded pattern is real,  if we consider that a bigger diagonal force is also in effect. We do have perfect alternation between the A5 wave and the C5 wave, which is exactly what I like to see in zigzags.

The 5 waves leading to the “A” wave in Minor degree are far bigger than those little skinny 5 wave sequences that soared to new record highs. Zigzags like this can and do show up in any diagonal pattern, and we should always look for alternating patterns, between the two sets of 5 waves. 

Another zigzag may start of long and skinny, but then switch to bigger, overlapping set of choppy waves. This keeps us scratching our heads, wondering what’s going on.  The thing is we don’t always see them early enough, and even when we do see them, it’s hard to believe that what we’re seeing is actually real! 

I deliberately did not start the wave count going down, as it is easy to count as the start of 5 waves and wave 4 has just completed.  Since we have 4 short waves, the 5th wave could extend.  

My bet is that this starting bearish phase is another diagonal, where our present rally would be a wave 2 and not a 4th wave rally. This makes a huge difference in the count, especially if we need to decline 5 waves in Minor degree.

The horizontal lines are price levels, where 3 of the biggest gaps will get closed. These can all become temporary support in a bigger bearish phase. Apple’s price would eventually have to retrace that entire “A” wave bottom, after which we may land on an “A” wave in Primary degree.

The next bearish phase could all go sideways and down, with no clear 5 wave sequence decline. This would then send a signal that the big wave counts need another review.

Apple Intermediate Degree Review: A Perfect Fibonacci $144



Apple has pushed into all time record highs, with the added bonus of achieving the $144 Fibonacci number. What else can we wish for as I love it when markets turn at whole Fibonacci numbers.  In any potential Cycle degree wave IV bear market,  I’m sure we could see the $89 and maybe the $55 price level again. 

We have at least 3 easy to see gaps, that are open below present prices, and it would not surprise me when all these gaps get filled in the next 2-3 years. 

When it comes to the Gold/Apple ratio we are sitting at the extreme ratio of 8.67:1. This means that gold will only buy 8.67 shares of AAPL, which is one of the most expensive readings I have calculated so far.  To stay long with these readings is just asking for trouble, as the markets will swing back to a point when Apple becomes cheaper again. The Nasdaq has also pushed to new record highs, so it stands to reason that Apple followed along.   

Is The Apple Stock Mania Over?



 In the last few days Apple has been slowing down after a fantastic run which started mid 2016. Half of 2015 was mostly a correction year matching the general stock market indices.  I matched 2015 with an Intermediate degree correction, which was followed by a bullish phase that had diagonal wave structures in it, but it also works great as another zigzag for a diagonal 5th wave. The two 5 wave sections are different sizes and I see that as being pretty normal. Same with all the other general markets,  Apple should also be facing a Cycle degree meltdown. A Cycle degree 4th wave meltdown, consisting of 3 waves in Primary degree. 

A flat or a zigzag is unknown at this time, but there are more open gaps below present prices,  that the Apple stock chart looks like Swiss Cheese. I’m sure that the 2016 low will not hold, except for a short term period, as a Cycle degree correction would be far more bearish in the long run.  

The important thing that we need to watch for is the type of pattern Apple will make on the way down, as I see lots of room for Apple’s stock price to fall.

There is another gap at about the $75 price level so this level could present extreme support.  The Gold/Apple ratio hit another extreme, and today it was 9.2:1, and the most extreme I have ever calculated.  

Apple Bear Market Crash Review




On my last Apple posting, I was very bearish, and was anticipating a top. The market has helped to confirm this bearish outlook, so what happens now?  Nobody knows where this AAPL decline will stop at, as the bearish fundamentals are lagging indicators. Since early May 2015, Apple has been in a bear market and the fundamental news stories, are just starting to catch up. 

Don’t get me wrong, I love Apple products, but when the price turns bearish, there is no amount of iPhones  that they can sell, to reverse a stock price slide. 

When the wave count is not clear, I also use the Gold/Apple ratio to calculate how expensive or cheap, the Apple stock price really is.  One such extreme ratio worked out to about 11.8:1 which was exceeded recently when the ratio hit 10.8:1. Rounding things off a bit, we can use 11:1 as a very expensive Gold/Apple ratio.  On this Friday that ratio dipped back to 11.8:1 still making it extremely expensive. This is a toxic stock, and it will remain that way until the Gold/Apple ratio starts to tell us, that the Apple stock price is starting to get cheap again. We don’t want fair value, we want to see a consistent ratio heading towards 22:1. It may never reach that ratio, but the majority will hate that stock, when the price becomes low again.

This may not happen until the price falls well below the $90 price level. It may also go and close that big gap at $75.  Investors that buy too early, are going to feel a lot of pain, as the Apple bears are slashing at all those Apple bulls.  Running with the bulls is a dangerous sport as the majority, are starting to find out. 

In a Cycle degree correction, we must expect the shine to come off a great company. I knew the game was up when Apple started to pay dividends.  Paying dividends, stock buy back programs, all signals that Apple does not know what to do with its cash. 

Checking with the analysts’ recommendations, they have a very high recent “Buy” recommendation.  I’m sure that sooner or later, they will have a “sell” recommendation, so when that happens, chances are good that the Apple stock price, would be getting closer to a bottom. 

Apple, Potential Bull Trap?





 Yes, there is always a chance that this Apple stock will still go to the moon, but if we look at the pattern we could get a surprise move in the next few months. I’m sure this will not be an upside breakout, but more like a downside breakout.  I would not even dream about counting it out this way, but in a diagonal world we can have insane moves that does not seem logical from any perspective.  

Those insane moves are normal when the markets are switching directions. It looks like Apple can keep going, but it will head south if only one wave position is right. If wave 3-4 is a flat or it even is a triangle, then any inverted move should get retraced by 100%.  A near perfect bull trap would be the icing on the cake.

Any wave count is not perfect, but what other indicators can we use to check if AAPL is expensive or not.  Conventional indicators may even be telling us that APPL is cheap at these price levels.

This is the perfect time to take a Gold/Apple ratio calculation. My Gold/Apple ratio history is slim at best, but I have one extreme expensive ratio and one extremely cheap Gold/Apple ratio.

Today the Gold/Apple ratio calculated at 10.8:1, which means you can only buy 10.8 shares with one US Dollar gold ounce.  That sure does not look like a cheap stock to me, so I checked with my maximum. This was 11.8:1! Yikes!, that sure makes this Apple stock extremely expensive when we use gold as money. 

Of course the chart has some pretty big gaps in it as well, which I’m sure will come back and haunt all these bullish investors.  

AAPL, Apple 2010-2016 Primary Degree Review.




A few postings ago I had a vision that the Apple stock pattern may have ended. Something ended alright, but I think it was one degree lower in Primary degree.  I looked at it from the 2002 bottom with a diagonal perspective, due to the extreme choppy pattern  of the waves. It started with the Flash Crash Of 2010.  The first peak in 2012, is now my “A” wave in Intermediate degree. The second peak in 2012, is an expanded “B” wave top, followed by a bear market, (or bull market correction). From the 2013 bottom Apple started to go into a bullish phase that seemed to have topped in mid 2015, along with many other indices. I did not have room to draw in the highest degree at the 2015 top, but it is now a wave 3 in Primary degree.

Our present so called bear market, would actually just be a bull market correction.  There is no way of knowing exactly what location we are at, at this time, but this is where we start the process of eliminating what will not work. All three of my corrective patterns can still be in progress so this will take time to sort out.

One thing is certain this AAPL chart would have to point down when this correction gets close to finishing again. Right now I’m working Apple as a single zigzag but this can also develop into a triangle.   Apple is a great company, but that does not mean that it can never develop a bearish phase, where they all give up on it.  At the recent 2016 bottom, funds unloaded their shares as they though Apple was done for. Expert fund managers or hedge fund managers selling at a bottom is very normal, as they are doing the same thing as the retail investor does.  Of course stories about Warren Buffet buying Apple stock may have changed some fund manager’s minds. Buy, High and Sell Low, is what the majority does, which is the opposite of what any contrarian would think about doing.

All this helps to confirm that a 4th wave decline in the main indices can still be in our future.

I have to build a new gold/apple ratio to get the extremes, but right now we are sitting at 11.8:1 This seemed a bit expensive, so I checked against the 2013 prices when Apple was very low at the $55 range. This worked out to 21.8:1 on the cheap side.  If we get a gold/apple ratio below 9-10:1 then this would make Apple much more expensive. We need to take three or more readings to get a better picture of the extremes 

If this ratio spreads then Apple’s price is getting cheaper when compared to gold. I only use the gold futures cash price as my base, and I round it off a bit for simplicity’s sake. 

Apple, 2002-2016 Price Review From A Diagonal Perspective.




This is the second time I looked at the Apple bull market from a diagonal perspective. It is very easy to count out the chart using impulse wave labels, but obvious or easy waves are mostly a figment of our imaginations, especially if we are oblivious to anything diagonal related.  The 2002 would match the bottom of the market crash in 2002, followed by a zigzag bull market to top of 2007. Then this big crash of 2008 produced another zigzag which proved to be one of the best buying times in Apple, that may never be repeated again. At that time I saw Apple producing a potential correction, which did not jive  with any super degree wave counts.

From very late 2008, and a potential wave 2 bottom, it did not take long for the waves to start getting very choppy. It got worse after the 2010 Apple crash, after which the choppy waves really started to kick in. That move sent us to the second 2012 peak,  before Apple started another major decline. Everybody thought the Apple bull party was over, but Apple didn’t want anything to do with that, after which it started another leg up to the 2015 peak. 

This presently would put Apple in a 4th wave bear market, but bear markets are just big corrections to a higher degree. Needless to say I will be running Apple with a 2015 wave 3 Primary degree top.  I show a single zigzag decline, but this would make a major bottom far too early at this time. Apple would also have to keep the upward pressure going, if the 4th wave bottom has actually already completed. 

Any single “C” wave crash, would also produce a bigger spike to the downside which it did not do in 2016. We sure got a wild spike at the mid 2015 bottom, but this could be an “A” wave. This still leaves Apple with three core corrective patterns that need to get trashed one at a time,  which will eventually narrow down our choices. 

I can still move my “A” wave peak to the early 2012 peak, which gives us an expanded pattern. I already counted it as an expanded top several times, so that would not be a stretch to do again.  

Anything from Apple’s early years seems to command top dollars in the collector world as the stock certificate story clearly shows.

Several of early Apple computers  also demand top dollar. 

AAPL, Apple Stock 2015-2016 Review: Bull Traps Bite!




If you notice I have pushed the Cycle degree wave 3 back in time to the 2015 peak.  This is the same as travelling forward in time, but we can only do it on paper.  I could be completely wrong with this wave count, but I have to run it, to make or break it. The first crash down into 2015 which ended on a big long spike could be the “A” wave in Intermediate degree I need. Then the counter rally, which ended up being another fake, was the “B” wave top in Intermediate degree followed by 5 waves down in Minor degree.

Now that works as a pretty normal zigzag decline for me, which ended in May 2016. Ever since then Apple has been on a rip roaring bullish phase, that has now gone vertical last week.   When charts go vertical they can usher in bear markets that will surprise us, especially if Apple starts to head straight down again.  We will hear the analysts screaming that support has been broken again, but price is only important if we don’t look at the pattern. 

The thing is, the bullish phase that started from the May bottom, only counts out as 7 waves, and it works as a 3-3-5 count as well. Something is going to happen soon!  Apple could crash or decline back down towards the $90 price level, and then turn in another “C” wave bull market, 5 waves long!  Those 5 waves, would be in Minor degree, but could terminate at the “B” wave top that I would be looking for. I like to joke that all wave counts are a myth created in our minds, like dragons were a myth back centuries ago. Until wave counts are confirmed nothing is as real as it seems.  

This is the second posting that I am working the Cycle degree wave 3 position along with the Russell 2000.  There may be more to come once I review the others again.  I can’t do that all at once, as I cover more asset classes than most. Single stocks are at the bottom of the list. Where Apple goes, the rest of the market is sure to follow and the fear of the lack of lineups at stores can be a bad omen pushed by conventional analysts. Going online and ordering is the reason why there were no line ups in this year’s iPhone release. What a silly ego statement it is to see people lined up for a mass produced product anyway.

The last thing I would be,  is bullish with this Apple pattern, so  investors are going to see how bad, bull traps can bite. 

Is The Apple Pokemon Go Bubble Going To Burst?

Pokemon Go sets Apple App Store record for launch downloads, but US growth slowing



The Pokemon Go game has gone wild in the past few weeks and has broken records at the app store!  Does the recent Apple stock rally reflect this launch? Of course I had to try the game just to see what all the excitement was about, but I think I will get bored pretty quick.  

Since April 2015 Apple has been in a bear market, as it has consistently been grinding downward, with breath taking rallies thrown in, to keep investors excited. Yes, we have big open gaps above our present Apple prices, and they may remain open for a long time yet.

At this time I use the 2015 peak as an unknown wave position, as there are always 5 potential choices we can have. These 5 choices are always specific to the degree we think we are working in. Since the majority of the markets seems to be made of diagonal waves, applying the same to this Apple stock makes sense.  Look how many waves overlap in this bear market.  We would have trouble finding some pure impulse waves, except for a few very small runs.  

There are very few differences between a triple zigzag run, and the Diagonal5 wave structure that I use. To help confirm triple zigzags, (1,3,5) with two main intervening corrections, we should end up with a count of 5, sometime in the future. We need this AAPL stock to break another new low, and that sure would help to keep this wave count going. Of course I will have to adjust it along the way, but if any, real unexpected radical move happens, I will trash my wave count in record time.  Many times a trashed wave count just goes into hibernation for awhile, and it can come back and continue to be a very valid wave count.

I love these diagonal wave patterns, and it makes it more interesting when we can spot them early enough to confirm them.  Wave counting is the secondary act, as we have to “see” the patterns first, before we can count them out. “Wave Counting” is just the process, we have to go through, to confirm what we think we are seeing. If you think that this sounds stupid, then think back to when RN Elliott had to “see” the patterns first, before he could count them out! 🙂

All my wave counts are fresh everytime I post, as the last thing I want is to drag an error filled wave count with me, year in and year out.  

Apple 2012-2016 Elliott Wave Count Review


I find it hard to believe that Apple would go up while the main indices that Apple is in, are crashing down. Apple is the big elephant in the room and chances are good that Apple stock is more of a leading indicator than a lagging indicator.  Apple would have to implode if we were already in the “big one”.  All the super bears are looking for a recession much worse than 2008, and all the SC and GSC degree wave counters are looking for their 5 waves down in Primary degree. Keep looking folks, as you will never find the great SC and GSC degree wave count. Those high degree wave counts are in the future by a few decades and in reality SC and GSC degree wave counters are  chasing dragons in a mythical world.  They created these high degree wave counts because many chart patterns have been “forced” into a higher degree. All it takes is one wave count that is forced and we end up slipping into a higher degree, when in fact it is in a much lower degree.

Every corrective wave for any degree must have a certain amount of wave patterns that must show up, otherwise we are not in the degree we think we are in.  This is not rocket science, but it is taken from the EWP book and the idealized wave patterns.  Simply put, if you have never seen or counted a 5 wave declining sequence in Primary degree, then it’s impossible for any of  the markets to be anywhere near a SC or GSC degree wave count.




I moved my 2012 peak up as this chart could have ended with diagonal patterns up, to the Intermediate degree wave three.  If I showed you just one degree higher, I would then be painting you a SC or GSC degree world. Of course, all the wave positions would have to be changed to keep the wave count in sequence.

From the 2012 peak Apple started a bearish phase, which came to a screeching halt in April 2012, with the secondary bottom coming a few months later in June. From my perspective the 2012-2013 decline was a bull market correction, as it was completely retraced by more than 100%. 

The differences between these two double bottoms is critical to understand as that started off another massive bullish phase for Apple’s stock price.  This 2012-2015 bullish run sure looks like an impulse, and it stretched (extended) allowing the smaller degrees to show up. The angle of the bull market also helps to see it as an impulse.

At the very top in 2015 we have a crazy pattern that I counted as the first part of an expanded flat, ending with a huge down spike in August 2015. Then we had a good rally into November 2015 before Apple resumed its decline which I am calling a “C” wave impulse. 

In May of 2016 AAPL hit another bottom at about $90, before it started to crank back up. In May of 2016 we could have hit a 4th wave bottom in Minor degree.  If this is the case, then Apple’s chart should still soar.  Technically it would have to soar and make all time new record highs. We have 3 huge gaps that are still open above our present prices and eventually, all of them will get filled again.  We could also draw a nice wedge for this bear market, which usually means a violent reversal can happen. 

Everybody treats the Apple chart like it is in a bear market, but from a Cycle degree perspective, it is just a big bull market correction.  The $90 price level has meaning as Apple has pivoted around this number several times before. Is Apple confirming that stocks still have a bullish phase in them, or are we going to use the excuse, “It’s Different this time”?

Even Warren Buffet bought Apple stock last month, so this also adds to the bullish case. It would be a wave counting horror show if we created a wave count, contrary to a successful contrarian.  🙂 

Quick Apple Update: Crashing Like A Zeppelin!




Apple’s stock chart has rolled over a long time ago, as the trend lines show.  If the markets are on a general Primary degree “C” wave decline, so why should AAPL not do the same thing?  In a bearish phase all the ugly news will become front and center,  so if AAPL continues south, then expect more bad news.  This will be news that the mainstream dream up, but recent news from the Apple Insider, sure still look good. Apple still dominates, and overall it is a good company. 

AAPL could be of the same type of a path as the general stock market is, but where and when it will bottom is next to impossible to estimate. With all the buy backs and stock splitting antics we could be dealing with new numbers that will stun us, in how cheap AAPL stock can get.  Going back to 2007, at what previous gully (bottom) is apple going to stop at.  Any expanded flat type move will definitely send AAPL back to record highs but we would go broke in trying to stay in to see that happen.

Until we hear news about insider buying, investing in this stock price, will be a disaster. I am sure we will see the $70 price yet, as a huge gap will be closed by then, and even $30 is not ruled out. 

Apple Bull And Bear Market Review 2012-2016




Single stock Elliott Wave Counts are not at the top of my list of things to cover, but Apple is inside the DOW and the SP500 and it will go where they go. Or is it the other way around, that Apple is holding up all stock markets from crashing.  For the last month, Apple has crashed in a near vertical decline which is much like a “C” wave would act.

Since the bottom of February I was counting it as a 4th wave, but now it would have to be called a diagonal 4th wave as it ran too far and started to overlap a bunch of important waves.   We have about 4 open gaps on the way down and they would eventually have to get filled again. Please do not take that as a sure thing as these gaps can stay open for a long time, as Apple may have to sink much further. 

That rally to the April top, insiders were selling all the way up while all the analyst recommendations were overwhelmingly a “BUY” rating.  This is nothing new as I have documented this many times with other stocks. No matter where this stock may go in the short term, it is only worth investing in, if the majority of insiders, are buying. 

When they do buy it will become public information, then you may have a chance of being on the right side. If this rally is short and goes sideways, then watch out as more downside will certainly come again.