T-Bonds Intraday Bull Market Update

The very big bull market in T-Bonds have been in progress since the bottom in 1981. Then in mid 2016 the T-bond bull market took a big hit and crashed down into the March 2017 bottom. This mid 2016 top, terminated close to a 35 year bull market, which is about as close to a Fibonacci 34 years as we can get. 

The “B” wave bottom is in Minor degree, so technically we would need to get 5 waves up in Minute degree.   The April 2017 peak is just too small to be in a Minute degree wave 1 already, so the above wave count is adjusted down by one degree. It also means that I’m scraping the bottom of the degree list, as I used up parts of Minscule degree, which is the last on the list of 15 that is used in the EWP book. 

After we have used up all the degree levels, and still get far too many waves, then chances are high my degrees were too low to start with.   There is a good chance that this bullish run can go to new record highs, but T-Bonds may have an alternate idea in where they want to go to.

This entire chart can also fit into a “C’ wave bull market, but as part of an expanded 4th wave rally.  We still have a long way to go  before we even get close to this potential “C” wave top. Once a 5 wave sequence starts, nothing will derail this 5 wave run until it shows itself with any and all extensions. Of course, any bullish phase can be a big bearish rally, in which the big bull market ends up dying and another major leg down materializes. 

I see the entire T-Bond bull market as a potential Cycle degree 4th wave, with the “AB3” wave in Primary degree already completed. The two sets of 5 waves, can only be calculated looking at the 35 year pattern as two diagonal waves. Pure impulse waves are next to impossible to see and count out, so this is a pretty good indication that the T-Bond market contains diagonal wave structures.  Diagonals belong to the 5 wave family of patterns, so by themselves they can never be used as a single correction.