SP500 2009-2017 Bull Trap Review

This is the March 2018 contract extended to see it as a weekly type chart. I did not include any Minor degree wave positions because I want to look at it from a bigger scale. At this record top the SP500 is working towards a small double top, which may still take the rest of this week to clear up.

Like Rick Rule says, ” you’re either a contrarian, or you become a victim”. The Elliott Wave principle is a contrarian system, because if we have a bullish wave count, in sympathy when the bullish majority, then our wave counts will be wrong. 

The 2009 bottom is a prime example where wave counts were as bearish as the herd was, so the expert wave analysts never saw the “Biggest bull market since the depression coming”. Steven Jon Kaplan sure did, as this quote is credited to him. 

At that time I was still brainwashed with SC and GSC degree delusional thinking, and I thought about an 80% retracement would happen. Of course, all those wave counts were trashed. What the wave position is at the 2009 bottom must be clear, as all it takes is one wave position to be wrong, then all our future forecasts will never work. 

I show three important levels in this SP500 chart, which will help to paint the impending bear market.  Think about our present top for a minute and ask yourself, “who is left to come”? What tribe is coming out of the jungle, and says, “Yes, it’s a good time to buy high to invest for the long term”?

We are in what I described as a Cycle degree wave 3 bull trap in stocks, and what’s coming will surprise the majority. No arbitrary 20% dip in the markets will do it, as 20% will just start to get the bulls angry. 

At a minimum the 2015 lows must get retraced, and then eventually the 2011 lows should get retraced as well. This leaves us with  the 666 price level that the markets would have to beat. What if the SP500 never gets close to that 2009 bottom, but stops around the 700-800 price range?  Ok, maybe I’ll be wrong when the SP500 stops at 699 instead. 🙄  We are looking about 3 years ahead so exact price levels will be hard to measure.

At this time my bet is still a 3 wave Primary degree correction, with the “B” being anything. It could move fast or slow, or be so well disguised we wouldn’t know where the Primary degree “B” wave ended. 

For those who are just starting to read my blog, I would like to stress that my wave counts are “never” higher than Cycle degree.

It’s mathematically impossible for us to be in “any” higher degree, until the 5th wave in Cycle degree is found. All SC or GSC degree comments and future fundamental forecasts mean “nothing” in a Cycle degree world. Not a single part of  SC or GSC degree wave counts have ever been confirmed by anyone, since the 2000 peaks.