SP500 2000-2017 Intermediate and Primary Degree Review

Idealized Cycle, Supercycle And Grand Supercycle Degree Review | Elliott Wave 5.0

The above link was posted late August. It shows three sets of idealized wave counts after Cycle degree wave 3 is completed. In the SP500 chart below, we already have 2 sets of wave 3 tops with the third top in Cycle degree still in progress. 

I look at the markets from a Cycle degree perspective with wave zero of 5 waves in Cycle degree starting in 1932. Cycle degree wave 2 ended in late 1942, while Primary degree wave two ended in 1975.  Intermediate degree wave 2 followed by a bottom in 1983, and then a Minor degree wave 2 ended in 1984.

The 1987 crash was a Minor degree wave 3 crash while most analysts working on SC degree, called it a Primary degree crash. This is a full 2 degree difference from what I have. 

At the 2000 top I was a full 4 degree levels lower than what the majority of wave analysts were using. Between one single degree level, we can be out by 61%, and if we are off by 4 degree levels, we could be out 4.618 times. 

The one big 5 wave sequence that separates Cycle, SC and GSC degree, is 5 waves down in Primary degree. Since the 2000 peak not a single set of 5 waves going down in Primary degree, had developed. In fact the exact opposite happened, when all that developed were just corrections. After each correction the markets soared to new record highs again. This should have been a clue to high degree wave counters that something is wrong, but they refused to change or go back in time and work on a new wave count. 

Since 2000 we have one set of 3-4-5 waves completed, but in Intermediate degree. At the 2007 top wave 5 in Intermediate degree completed with a new wave 3 in Primary degree, on top.  From the 2009 bottom the markets churned up in a wild and choppy fashion, which most of the time would not fit into any great looking impulse. I labeled it as an impulse to keep it simple, but 5th waves can be diagonals which act like a location indicator.  

Since the 2009 bottom wave 1 and wave 3 were the two extended wave’s, so the final 5th wave up must be the shortest wave. Right now it seems the market will never end, but we are being sucked into a bull trap.  The main reason for this market top being much harder to count out is that it is a higher degree than the other two were. Any SC degree wave three top, will be harder yet to find,  because there is a natural tendency to slip into a higher degree before they are actually due.  

The Elliott Wave Principle is not about what the pattern looks like, as those are the easiest wave patterns we think we are seeing. It is the shape of the idealized pattern that tells us what to look for, as those easy waves are just traps.  Sure 5th waves extend, but they don’t extend for several generational seasons. A 5th wave extending through the Boomer, Gen X and now the Millenial generations can’t happen, as 5th waves usually have much weaker fundamentals.

With 2 sets of 4th wave bottoms under our belt a Cycle degree 4th wave bottom should be the next one in the sequence. Just like each wave three top, must increase in sequence by one degree, each 4th wave bottom must also increase by one degree increments.  

In the last 20 years I have counted the markets in GSC degree, then moved down to SC degree. This was still not low enough as I had to drop down to a Cycle degree before it started to make sense.  The lower the degree the more sensitive to the markets we become. Higher degrees do the exact opposite as the 2009 bottom clearly demonstrated. 

Without finding “All” 5 waves in Cycle degree first, it is impossible to move into any SC degree world, and even less possible to be in a GSC degree world.